meico still in bullish trend and trending up.....next month qr coming out...expected to be good....any weakness...opportunity to buy .....hold guys...you'll reward...
Mieco's last qtr EPS was 3.21 cents so the coming qtr EPS should be over 4 cents. Thus the conservative estimated whole year EPS = 4 X 4 = 16 cents. Based on PE of 10, the FV/TP for Mieco is RM1.60 at least. HLBank Research has already used PE of 11x to get Homeriz's its FV/TP http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hleresearch/85357.jsp) If PE of 11x is used for Mieco, its current year FV/TP should be RM1.76
At the current price of RM1.12, Mieco's current PE is 7 only, probably the CHEAPEST among the furniture related stocks. Hevea has a PE of near 10 based on the current whole FY EPS so should Mieco too which means its price should be near RM1.60 or RM1.70 by now.
People with longer term in view should collect it as it has 57 % return upside from the current level based on the current year EPS and some more its PE is on 7. Mieco is the next Hevea !!
If Hevea latest q result is so good, and now some of the customers of Hevea place order with Meico, I don't see why the coming q result for Mieco will not be good, Hevea has surged more than 500% from less than RM1, I don't see RM2 for Meico is not unreasonable
From Quarterly Results: profit increse: 1.98 times Earnings increase: 2.23 times asset Increase : 1.03 times yummy at this price.: Planning to increase Capacity n sales in 2016: from reports. This plane got a little tech problem. Peoples confidence issue...Export in US currency quote? Anybody knows how they are quoting their sales price? In RM or USD? I believe all exports in US currency.
previously 1.12 push to 1.17+ need huge volume, but currently little volume already pushed to 1.17. means banker already collected enough bullets and take control. easily push the price up . ready to break resistance. rm100-200k can push up 1 cent, index rebounded strongly these few days. market volume still remain high. investor mood is getting better, is time to pushhhh up~
agree with you icon, while comparing this stock with hevea & evergreen, this stock PE is lower, and company strong in generating cash flow ,company intend to lower down debt. finance cost will drop in future, meaning in future can earn more =) company able to generate enough cash flow to deleverage.
in term of product quality, i have confident on it , just did some on market expirement couple weeks ago. i went to XXX furniture factory outlet, they keep persuade me to use MELAMINE fiber board as main material to build my kitchen cabinet & wardrobe . According to the sales person. this material is slightly expensive than normal chipboard. However, market is demanding. (real wood feel & high density & able to tahan scratch) Since this company business is focusing to provide material to domestic furniture export company, mostly to western country. maybe they are demanding this kind of material rather than just a normal MDF board. potential to getting more business in future?
company with strong cash flow,able & intend to deleverage. new plant able to lower down operating cost lower PE than same industry player still have capacity to manufacture more ( while getting new order, produce more, economic of scale, lead to higher profit margin, generate more cash> deleverage again> earn more again) i can conclude that.....
macro , is positive to this industry, micro , company have competitive advantage compare with industry player market , PE is lower than other chipboard business, ROE not bad, below NTA, great potential stock. apa tunggu? if you want to start a chipboard business, this counter give you alot of discount. i tunggu jatuh abit more, then all in, haha, technically ,does not look great, tak boleh break resistance, however, volume still there, got hope. but maybe can collect at lower price. perhaps got chance to let me collect last round before its journey to north?
this industry is quite similar with semi-conductor. when eco good, manufacturer keep buying new machine and increase output capacity, when reached a certain level, it will be slowdown and jorney to holland. fiberboard manufacturer cant expect this fate as well. Timeline, 2000's expansion > 2008 eco slow, 2009>start killing some this industrial player, 2011-2013 officially many player holland, lowering down output >2014 start recovering> 2015 onwards will it be good? lets see.
it shows good sign of recovering, If US keep recovering, USD will increase, more business opportunity for this company. if us drop back, all fund coming back to emerging market, this kind of undervalue stock have potential to become one of their target stock. Therefore, no matter in what circumstances, this company give me a feel like "sure win counter" but its just a question, when to buy. One important thing to highlight, US citizen spent less in oil price, this will enhance their pocket money, more money to buy other things. home consumption and furniture got hope. not only us, all oil importer around the world actually benefited.
Management team quality, i just dig out few yrs report and see how they managing the company during downturn. they still alive. the bad time was past, now they are harvesting the fruit. during badtime, management did a lot effort to cut cost, plant relocation, sell land, employ a team to enhance efficiency, its a proven record , i believe this management team. Never meet them, dont know the real. just my gut feeling.
Debts , did you all aware of something?latest quarter this company profit just few million, but able to payoff 10m debts. where to get money? cash flow, depreciate alot (depreciate saja, cash masih masuk). can see this company is eager to settled off their debts (currently their debts carrying almost 6% p.a interest) i believe before end of 2016, company can fully settle off the debts and start paying interest in 2017(sin+lan). if able to clear 50m ,it can save 3m per year. improve EPS :1.5cents. What if it become debtless? Eps:3cents,(low chances)
Profit Margin, if you know some rubber estate owner, please ask them, sei mei, boleh cari makan tak. in coming years, rubber no price, estate owner chop down the tree, raw material supply will increase maybe will become cheaper or maintain (because demand also increase), GLUE price tak payar cakap, sure drop because oil price holland already. this company focusing on value added products, profit margin will be increase if operation efficiency improve(plant 3 only running on 60% capacity, what if getting more order? margin increase la brother.)
at latest financial quarter, knowing that the land semambu sold, all the machinery is going to transfer back to other plant. now they started the ground work already, machine sudah ada, if the management no confident on getting more business, they dont need to spent so money to start the ground work. very simple, bring back the machine, if its order increase, jalan saja, no order, nothing to lose. but i believe management will take this opportunity to make the production more efficiency.Hence improve efficiency.
Opportunity> 2013 got 45m+ non cash write off, management macam minta board to recover some portion, might give you surprise earning in future? just leave it, it if does, its a bonus.
This company is like hidden gem. its a little bit cyclical, is this a good time to collect? macam ada sign nak reverse. for me, paying rm1.1 to buy a company with NTA RM1.3. u go buy hevea, paying hevea rm1.35 to buy 0.70 assets, u paying SHH 2.4 to buy NTA1.6. you paying everg 2.34 to buy 1.7? paying pohua 1.6 to buy 0.92? paying Liihe 2.72 to buy 1.14? important point is, many investor paying almost 1.5 to 2times NTA for similar industry business. but you are only paying MIECO 0.8times...mana carila abang. command sense. therefore i project in future, once people spotted this counter, i can see people paying 1.5times for this counter, when it become famous. if 1.5times, meaning can reach 1.8? i dont know.
i have bought it average on 1.15. what about you? previously bought at 0.4x, drop to 3x cents cut lost....god dam. i admit im wrong. i dare to buy back at high after reading its company. what about you? im not stock promoter, just sharing info. Rectify me if im wrong. =) sorry for my rojak language. thats me, my style haha. i dont know how to write it professional, because im not. im just sin+lin gam and like to talk story. haha.
sorry, just read again my comment, many wrong words. nvm la as long as you can read it. just my point of view ya, dont tarok me , i dont meant to criticize on other stock, obviously this is a hidden gem. a sleeping monster, once wake up,hohoho. hope im not wrong, if not i will holland too.
im poor in close up.i just write anything pop out in my mind after reading all the reports. just want to highlight some point. hope you all can grab the good one, neglect my poor writing . thanks you.
huge debt is a threat, however management did take action to deleverage, results showed. if manage the threat well, it might be an opportunity? just my point of view, wish the coming quarter reports will not disappoint me.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
77huat77
1,782 posts
Posted by 77huat77 > 2015-10-22 10:51 | Report Abuse
Selling pressure very strong