Posted by Mat Cendana > 2016-05-19 12:27 | Report Abuse

@cutie Don't know whether there's more bleeding to come. But at 3.92, it is certainly not a sucker's price. For one thing, can take comfort that we are buying at a much lower price than what it once was.

I feel too many speculators were trying to play the "Sarawak election surge". The thing is, most people had been right about the expected results. So there's nothing to power a surge. This only comes about when something is better than expected.

Might have to wait a while before investors' confidence and interest returns. The best that we can hope right now is that big investors don't continue to sell. If they do, then it's prudent to take a small loss while waiting for them to finish with whatever amount they plan to dispose.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-19 12:32 | Report Abuse

agreed.....$ 3.90 is a very fair price.
can buy.
Sept Q 2015, it had an exceptional q.....

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2016-05-19 12:41 | Report Abuse

sell

Posted by Beza > 2016-05-19 12:42 | Report Abuse

Support between 3.65 - 4.00 according to Nanyang.

Posted by YiStock > 2016-05-19 13:01 | Report Abuse

Hi all, please pardon me and don't scold me for sharing my opinion as below sharing is meant to caution you rather then blocking you to make money/ make lesser money / make loss.

If my facts are correct, then i may have save you from making more losses by averaging down. Or FA investors should be able to see the opportunities and redo all your calculation.

1) Taann has 45% of revenue derived from palm oil. The substantial 30% drop may impact earning a lot. You must understand, fix cost is always there. A significant change in input (revenue) will drive down earning a lot. They don't move in same rate.

2) log production didnt change much. That may explain why WTK and the rest are relatively stable.

3) for Q4 2015, there is a reversal of Rm 13.5 million from impairment. This figure may not repeat again.

4) for Q2 15, Q3 15 & Q4 15, they have forex gain of RM 2.5 mil , RM 9.1 mil & RM 4.4 mil respectively. If they practice good hedging, such gain may not appeared. For Q 16, RM appreciated 10%, if they still don't do good hedging, the result could be reverse as they have substantial "positive" exposure of USD, JPY and AUD.

5) industry love this Q vs last year same Q. But share market now is this Q vs immediate preceeding Q. i believe this is another fact.

Please do not repeat my failure while on the way to great profit.

Posted by ckwan11d > 2016-05-19 13:06 | Report Abuse

What price would you deem fair price for this stock.

Thank you.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-05-19 13:17 | Report Abuse

Average CPO price 2016: Jan 2257; Feb 2434; Mar 2529
Average CPO price 2015: Oct 2213; Nov 2124; Dec 2155

-------Average CPO Q1 2016 vs Q4 2015 = increase 11%


Average Plywood price 2016: Jan 461.76; Feb 475.70; Mar 483.53
Average Plywood price 2015: Oct 455.04; Nov: 445.54; Dec 448.69

-----Average Plywood Q1 2016 vs Q4 2015 = increase 5.4%

Average hard log price 2016: Jan 251.76; Feb 259.34; Mar 263.62
Average hard log price 2015: Oct 248.08; Nov 242.90; Dec 244.62

-----Average hard log Q1 2016 vs Q4 2015 = increase 5.3%


Increase CPO price vs decrease Output = net impact is NOT direct 1:1 relation.....as palm oil involve production cost....estimate CPO production cost around RM 1.600-1.800....therefore, increase CPO price have higher impact than decrease output production...... as 10% increase in selling CPO price will generate higher net profit margin which have greater impact to earning if compared to decrease 10% in output production

Taann is simple commodity resource oriented stock, reap earning from selling CPO, plywood, hard log......production volume all publish in bursa monthly and commodity daily, monthly selling price all clearly publish available...transparent....

Furthermore, Taann balance sheet is very strong, long term debt + short term borrowing about RM 460m.....but back by strong deposit cash RM 320m....if these year, taann can deliver sustainable earning by another RM 200m...then its balance sheet will turn into net cash position.

In addition, Taann is generous to reward shareholder with recurring dividend 10sen + 10sen + 1 for 5 bonus share

Current continue strengthening back USD.........USD vs RM = 4.09.......Ta ann earning is sensitive to currency exchange as most of its timber product and CPO are for export.

Nevertheless, Ta ann upcoming Q1 result should record lower profit if compared to immediate preceding Q4 2015 (EPS 15.65sen) due to absent one off item and forex , but should record higher if compared to corresponding Q1 2015 (EPS 7.31sen).......expect to deliver Q1 2016 EPS around 10sen + declare interim dividend at least 10sen

Posted by Beza > 2016-05-19 13:29 | Report Abuse

Yes, it should record higher profit when compared to Q1 2015. I am expecting bonus issue first and then 10 cents div after bonus issue which is equivalent to 12 cents div before bonus issue.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-19 13:32 | Report Abuse

my opinion. 3.90 very fair price.

technical readings, probably 3.60 to 4 for some time.




ckwan11d > May 19, 2016 01:06 PM | Report Abuse

What price would you deem fair price for this stock.

Thank you.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-19 13:38 | Report Abuse

RHB gave them 27 sen for each of following 3 years.
if can report 10 sen per q, share will be rerated to $ 4.50.


===========
hng33 Average CPO price 2016: Jan 2257; Feb 2434; Mar 2529

Posted by chabalang > 2016-05-19 13:55 | Report Abuse

@hng33, while your analysis is logical and rather sound, with the recent sharp decline in share price, market is pricing/expecting in a weaker 1Q16 result (both QoQ and YoY). You know it later this evening.

Posted by voon1900 > 2016-05-19 14:20 | Report Abuse

i dun noe up or dwn ...watch it n gud show

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2016-05-19 14:27 | Report Abuse

Expecting the weaker result by fund manager? Agains they got it before release to public.

Posted by mamatede > 2016-05-19 14:51 | Report Abuse

today AGM, whats with the extraordinary..

Posted by Jeremykid > 2016-05-19 14:56 | Report Abuse

EGM declare bonus issue

Posted by Gusen > 2016-05-19 15:01 | Report Abuse

Brought 3.9, no choice, USD = MYR4.08, i think soon MYR 4.2

Posted by Gusen > 2016-05-19 15:02 | Report Abuse

export stock start moving

Posted by cutie > 2016-05-19 15:02 | Report Abuse

Bonus 1 for 5 is confirmed later today .

Posted by Gusen > 2016-05-19 15:02 | Report Abuse

Market changing

Posted by cutie > 2016-05-19 15:03 | Report Abuse

BUY before it go back to 450

Posted by murali > 2016-05-19 15:04 | Report Abuse

Everyone knows the publicly available info of Bonus issue and yet prices drop a lot...hope not to receive surprise negative news in Q result

Posted by mamatede > 2016-05-19 15:05 | Report Abuse

people was talking about furniture counter again.. well this counter is at a good position..

Posted by Kent Choo > 2016-05-19 15:06 | Report Abuse

i really dun understand why compare QoQ? just like padini hv off season n peak season, palm oil is also same. qoq isnt fair for it

Posted by mamatede > 2016-05-19 15:07 | Report Abuse

qoq is not fair, compare the same quarter from the previous year will be better

Posted by hng33 > 2016-05-19 15:16 | Report Abuse

AGM 2.30 pm....EGM 3.30 pm......

Posted by probability > 2016-05-19 15:18 | Report Abuse

yistock...great to have guys like you who just simply share the facts - thanks

Posted by apabolehbuat > 2016-05-19 15:24 | Report Abuse

The so-called facts should be put in quote(" ").

Posted by cutie > 2016-05-19 15:29 | Report Abuse

no one here attend the meeting?

Posted by The One > 2016-05-19 15:33 | Report Abuse

Noticed that once a share went down so much.. quite hard for it to climb back up bcos profit takers / contrarians will block the routes.. and eventually it will drop back.. which is happening currently. Need big buy volume to absorb those so-called resistances...

Posted by mudwyx > 2016-05-19 15:35 | Report Abuse

hard to come back?? It depends. Looks at air asia.

Posted by Beza > 2016-05-19 15:38 | Report Abuse

See how it climbed up to above RM 5.50 a few months ago.

Posted by cooling > 2016-05-19 15:45 | Report Abuse

3.90 is not a good entry...3.30 maybe

Posted by Mytrd > 2016-05-19 15:47 | Report Abuse

For me 3.9 is good entry and now waiting to bounce back. Will up before market close

Posted by ramlimn > 2016-05-19 15:47 | Report Abuse

Have a look at MISC and GTRONIC.... pattern almost same as this counter.... once drop, hard to move up.

Posted by cooling > 2016-05-19 15:50 | Report Abuse

3.90 is not good entry because its not that low based on historical chart...it has run up a lot recently in a month ago

Posted by Jeremykid > 2016-05-19 15:53 | Report Abuse

GTRONIC you need to understand that its net profit dropped by a lot. TAANN drop due to EPF selling + panic selling. There might be bad news, but at the moment I guess only EPF fund managers and big players know. So wait for the quarter result...

Posted by cooling > 2016-05-19 15:54 | Report Abuse

epf sell because their EPS for taann dropped alot

Posted by cutie > 2016-05-19 15:57 | Report Abuse

US going to raise interest rate...weak ringgit will be expected. Good for export counters.

Posted by cooling > 2016-05-19 15:58 | Report Abuse

it will soon hit 3.60 soon because that was 8 months ago only

Posted by voon1900 > 2016-05-19 15:58 | Report Abuse

something is x rite

Posted by apabolehbuat > 2016-05-19 15:59 | Report Abuse

US rates have no way to go but up and Malaysia's interest rate will go down bcos growth has stalled. So USD will be very strong and hence export stocks.

Posted by cooling > 2016-05-19 16:01 | Report Abuse

this is not the way to catch a falling knife

Posted by kimi21 > 2016-05-19 16:01 | Report Abuse

This two days too many small retails investor like us interested on this stock..everyone hope will rebound..

Posted by cooling > 2016-05-19 16:02 | Report Abuse

many stuck catching the falling knife at 4.05
...soon will be another margin call...watchout

Posted by apabolehbuat > 2016-05-19 16:04 | Report Abuse

Hope the meetings went well.

Posted by Mytrd > 2016-05-19 16:05 | Report Abuse

This morning I sold at 4.05 which I bought at 4.00 yesterday. Today bought again at 3.9

Posted by Mytrd > 2016-05-19 16:05 | Report Abuse

Still hv safety of margin

Posted by Kent Choo > 2016-05-19 16:06 | Report Abuse

yes, everyone hope will rebound, but how many are in? XD all just watch movie, bcoz sifu'rules is "dont catch a falling knife "XD

Posted by cutie > 2016-05-19 16:13 | Report Abuse

after 394, no more roadblock. watch closely

Posted by voon1900 > 2016-05-19 16:14 | Report Abuse

stay sideline