This good counter no one seems to be interested. Combo of timber AND oil palm, with their palm trees relatively young and in maturing stage. See month-by-month increase of production figures...
Plantation - Key Takeaways From Globoil's Webinar Date: 9th October 2020
Solvent Extractors Association of India organised a webinar yesterday titled “World Price Outlook for Vegetable Oils and Meals”. There were three speakers i.e. Thomas Mielke from Oil World, Dorab Mistry from Godrej International and James Fry from LMC International. Here are the key takeaways from the webinar: -
James Fry said that rains and good palm prices would encourage better estate maintenance in Malaysia and Indonesia, leading to improved palm production in year 2021F. Rains would boost CPO supply in early-2021F and in the meantime, there would be a seasonal pick-up in production in 4Q2020. Peak palm production may be delayed by a month or two from the usual month of October or November in Malaysia.
In terms of demand, many companies in the HORECA sector (hotels, restaurants and catering) may not survive without government support. Families in low income countries may be trading down to smaller bottles of cooking oil. James Fry did not give a price forecast.
Thomas Mielke said that CPO prices may hover around US$700/tonne (RM2,905/tonne) in 1H2021. He forecasts global production of palm oil to increase by 3.5mil to 4mil tonnes in 2021F. CPO output in Indonesia is estimated to rise by 3mil tonnes in 2021F from about 43mil tonnes in 2020E. Thomas Mielke expects CPO production in Malaysia to be flat in 2021F.
He added that global soybean supply is ample currently in spite of weather-related losses in the US. He expects world soybean supply to increase by 21mil tonnes in 2020E/2021F as Brazil is envisaged to record a record output of 132.5mil tonnes (2019/2020E: 126.5mil tonnes).
Dorab Mistry believes that CPO production in Malaysia would be flat at 19.9mil tonnes in 2020E compared with market expectations of a decline. We believe that this implies that 4Q2020 production would be strong as Malaysia’s CPO output fell by 4.7% YoY in 8M2020. He did not give a production forecast for 2021F although he said that palm supply would be good.
Dorab has suggested a dynamic biodiesel mandate to the Indonesia government whereby if CPO prices exceed US$600/tonne, the biodiesel mandate would be reduced to B25 from B30. If CPO prices exceed US$700/tonne, the biodiesel mandate would be reduced further to B20. With this, the biodiesel mandate would still be implemented but at the same time, the smallholders would not be affected by the CPO export levy. Currently, Indonesia implements the B30 biodiesel mandate with subsidies from the CPO export levy of US$55/tonne.
“Based on our observation, most privatisation targets share several similar characteristics, including low trading liquidity, low valuation and under-researched. About a third of the Bursa Malaysia Plantation Index components have these characteristics.”
They include Chin Teck Plantations Bhd, Cepatwawasan Group Bhd, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, Kluang Rubber Co (M) Bhd, Sarawak Plantation Bhd, Ta Ann Holdings Bhd and United Malacca Bhd.
Prevailing CPO Price as of yesterday is RM 3354. Cost of producing is between RM 1500-1800. This will be good for our farmers. So we expect more movements in this counter due to feel good effect on the latest Indian FGV Oil Palm Contract, Bullish FCPO (Jan FCOP has already breaches RM 3,144), current CPO prices plus the feel good effect of 2021 Budget which will be tabled tomorrow.
Ta Ann Holdings Berhad ("Ta Ann") wishes to announce that the Board of Directors has on 30 November 2020 declared a first interim single tier dividend of 10 sen per ordinary share, in respect of the financial year ending 31 December 2020, payable on 12 January 2021 to depositors whose names appear in the Record of Depositors on 30 December 2020.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Pinky
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Posted by Pinky > 2020-10-05 10:53 | Report Abuse
This good counter no one seems to be interested. Combo of timber AND oil palm, with their palm trees relatively young and in maturing stage. See month-by-month increase of production figures...