MHC's own FFB production in Q4 2021 was 38,911 mt (Q4 2020 37,782 mt), up 3 % y-o-y which is very good amid worsening labour shortage. Avg CPO price for Q4 2021 is 54% higher y-o-y ($5,154 vs $3,341) Therefore, Q4 2021 y-o-y earning growth shall be very impressive.
Additionally, own FFB production for Jan 2022 is 7% higher y-o-y (10,599 mt vs 9,907 mt) while CPO price is 43% higher y-o-y ($5,354 VS $3,748) . We will see yet another explosive earning growth for Q1 2022 too.
For oil palm plantation, it is only right to compare production y-o-y. Q-o-Q comparison doesn’t tell you the full picture as there is seasonal factor in FFB production.
“The cost of production has in general risen very considerably for all plantation companies. The CPO windfall profit tax (WPT) constitutes a significant amount with higher prices and all these factors will to a certain extent negate the positive impact of higher CPO prices" - Bek-Nielsen, United Plantations.
Bek Nielsen never tell the public how much is the NETT positive impact on plantation’s profitability . People in the industry can confirm that the profit increase arising from the historic high CPO price is many times more than the production cost increase.
JP Morgan 'overweight' on plantations, sees 2-year upcycle TheEdge Tue, Feb 15, 2022 KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 15): ASEAN plantation stocks may be back in vogue, says JP Morgan, noting that foreign investors who are less tied up with sustainability metrics are unable to ignore the strong crude palm oil (CPO) price rally.
The bank upgraded its call on the ASEAN plantation sector to “overweight” and also upgraded its CPO price assumption on Tuesday (Feb 15), citing supply concerns amid years of reduction in new planting.
In a note, JP Morgan Malaysia equities research head Jeffrey Ng said rotation into inflation proxies (commodities) might persist amid “rising interest from non-ESG-bound foreign funds” and low domestic institutional holdings, coupled by prospects of US rate hikes.
This is on the back of consistent cuts in Indonesia’s new planting since 2012, as well as Malaysia’s replanting efforts, which could mean that near-term supply growth will decelerate.
“As we think the CPO upcycle might last over two years due to the reasons mentioned above, we think planters’ valuations have hit an inflection point,” Ng said.
“The sustainability of this rotation hinges on market perception of the CPO price outlook,” he added.
CPO prices settled at a fresh record of RM5,657 per tonne on Tuesday, having scaled new highs this week on expectations of improved demand following India’s import tax cut. The commodity has risen by over 20% this year.
Ng forecasts CPO price to be at around RM5,000 in 2022 and 2023. The assumption is below spot, taking into consideration revenue taxes.
Ng upgraded to “overweight” calls for Sime Darby Plantation Bhd (target price: RM6.80), Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (TP: RM30), and Genting Plantations Bhd (TP: RM12). He also raised IOI Corp Bhd to “neutral” (TP: RM4).
For valuation, the analyst switched to sum-of-parts of lands and downstream assets, from price-to-earnings ratio (PER), citing “the disconnect between share prices and the CPO price”.
“Planters are trading at single-digit PER, free cash flow yields are rising, the average dividend yield is circa 4%, and 2022 might see circa 35% profit growth,” said Ng.
“A rising tide may lift all boats, but we advise investors to pick planters that have well-defined ESG frameworks to avoid negative publicity risk,” he added.
Plantation stock rally has just begun in Feb 2022. It appear to me that there is a lot more steam for this rally to continue for months. Like many other stock rallies, we may see some plantation's share price surge pass triple digit % increase. I will just lock up my plantation stocks to enjoy the once in a lifetime superb return.
GLOVE rally lasted 4 months to reach its peak (Apr 2020 to Aug 2020). Supermax share price was around $1.63 (2/4/2020) to around $23.00 (7/8/2020), increase of 1,311% Topglove was $6.40 (2/4/2020) to $28.00 (7/8/2020), increase of 338% Harta was $6.80 to $21.00 , increase of 209%
STEEL rally lasted about 6 months to reach its peak(Nov 2020 to May 2021) Anjoo share price was $0.60 (2/11/2020) to $3.10 (10/5/21), increase of 417% SSteel was $0.42 to $1.20, increase of 186% Melewar was $0.20 to $0.72 , increase of 260%.
bursa really is` thaik punya market`,......palm oil price going up to rm6300 metric ton,.....plantation stock no moving,......earning per share 50 cent also can`t move,......many investors are blind,.....
Q4 2021 EPS 7.41 sen and FY 2021 21.26 sen beat my expectation. Dividend will be announced in Apr/May as usual. PE is only 5.6X At historic PE of 15, this share worth $3.20 Earning for FY2022 will be explosive.
if payout 50%, the dividend shall be 11sen/share. Pray for the Directors to come to their senses to reward shareholders in view that FY2022 earnings will even be better.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Johnzhang
3,098 posts
Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-10 08:30 | Report Abuse
MHC's own FFB production in Q4 2021 was 38,911 mt (Q4 2020 37,782 mt), up 3 % y-o-y which is very good amid worsening labour shortage. Avg CPO price for Q4 2021 is 54% higher y-o-y ($5,154 vs $3,341) Therefore, Q4 2021 y-o-y earning growth shall be very impressive.
Additionally, own FFB production for Jan 2022 is 7% higher y-o-y (10,599 mt vs 9,907 mt) while CPO price is 43% higher y-o-y ($5,354 VS $3,748) . We will see yet another explosive earning growth for Q1 2022 too.
MHC share price at $1.01 is just too undervalued!