Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-11 23:37 | Report Abuse

@redwed, care to share with chart illiterates?

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-11 23:45 | Report Abuse

aiyo dragon, its in the Star papers that PP is at 1.95, there could be people who still want to clear positions, and why not rite?

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-11 23:48 | Report Abuse

redwed, sure I hope the charts does show us what we can expect. I don't intent to clear my holdings, and hope I can make a 100% gain, but as what sosfinance mention, how does it work to see how much it can move?

Posted by redwed > 2014-04-12 01:58 | Report Abuse

Latest info.

http://i.imgur.com/QBn8Sck.png

Pray for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Posted by bracoli > 2014-04-12 07:40 | Report Abuse

Pray also useless. Better do own homework or ask sifu sifu here.

Posted by redwed > 2014-04-12 09:19 | Report Abuse

Nope. I repeat the quote from a movie called prisoners. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1392214/
It comforts when we got God by our side. We went to our homework, we ask sifu, only left is consulting god. You wouldn't know maybe someday God will turn this thing in your favor.. Isn't great?

Posted by mk88 > 2014-04-12 09:27 | Report Abuse

descending triangle - can go either way - shoot up (if new players coming in with volume) or breakdown and consolidate (waiting for further new developments)

If one has holding power, i think, will be able to ride on the upside

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-04-12 11:04 | Report Abuse

Aiyo......wave sifu said b4 in this forum......it is the best to combine both wave and candlestick to read the chart .....this one I agree wif him.......so......wave sifu.....pls help to answer my previous query posted here leh.....I m still learning to surf the wave leh.......tq tq........ha ha ha

Posted by ksng0307 > 2014-04-12 11:22 | Report Abuse

redwed, saw the chart that you posted, may i know which website you are using as i find yours very informative, hope u can share

Posted by ksng0307 > 2014-04-12 11:24 | Report Abuse

I got it, redwed, its www.interachart, tq

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-12 13:27 | Report Abuse

I still have allocations to buy more should the price goes lower, at the same time, I continue to hold for a better price

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-12 13:47 | Report Abuse

The share movement seems to mimic Iris ie play the share until it hits the targetted PP price + 5%, and then you will see a selldown (in Iris, the selling started from 61sen down to 49.5sen yesterday with expectations that it will continue its downward momentum to 45 - 46sen before stabilising).

This counter may still have some fundamental value but I would personally take a position only if it retraces at least 50% of the recent upward move from RM 1.62 ie in the price range from RM 1.80 to 1.83. If the price weakens further because of the ongoing correction in the US markets, you could see the stock retracing to 1.70 (50dma).

There is a reason for the MD to sell and that is to lock in profit from the recent price rally, which is obviously quite artificial.

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-04-12 19:33 | Report Abuse

Aiyo.......another sifu appeared liao.......this time.........pattern recognition sifu.....walao this forum really geng lor.....a lot of sifu are here.........it's time to gain as much knowledge as possible liao........it is even worthy than earning money from this ctr......like ppl said.......it is better to teach you how to fish than give you fish.........tq tq.........ha ha ha

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-12 19:43 | Report Abuse

aiyo, dragon, you also sifu ma, hope you still remember to use your parabolic method, I have not yet understand what it is, I just beginning to get a insight on CS, VSA. Next is what ar?

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-04-12 20:08 | Report Abuse

Aiyo FB......I only kucing kurup nie nie lor......Itu parabolic......heard from OBT when he mentioned in SUMA forum lor.........tapi dia takda ajar sama SUMA punya olang lor...........until now.......I baca baca......ukur ukur......timbang timbang......sampai sikalang pun takda faham punya lor.....maybe I baca baca salah lor.........macam mana mau kasi share share kat sini lor....pai seh sikit hor.........sikalang ada wave surfing sifu kat sini mah.........so.......mau belajar surfing wave lor..........sikalang wave sifu pun sulah takda datang........aiya........belajar separuh separuh........sikalang macam mana..........I pun takda tau lor.......ha ha ha

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-12 20:18 | Report Abuse

aiyo dragon, parabolic no sifu, wave sifu disappear, box sifu ada ma, candle sifu ada ma. baca sini sikit sikit pun ada tahu sikit ma. sikalang manyak sifu senang ma, dulu no sifu susah ma..

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-12 21:56 | Report Abuse

Haha! Where got sifu. I am only giving my opinion - my fren asked about this counter as he wanted to invest in the mother share so I decided to look into it.

A major point to note - I have no trading or investment position in this counter.

Anyway, just highlighting that the rally was largely driven by jaw-boning from the company officials and of course "friendly analysts". The purpose is already clear and that is the PP exercise at 1.95. Look at Iris and see what happened to the share price after the PP was set at 51sen - all sorts of announcements including a laughable 30% stake in a resort development in Palau prior to the PP. Any wonder why the Protasco MD himself is selling?

I wouldn't want to put too much weightage on the "rosy" prospects of the 10 billion property development - take a drive to Bangi and see the "town" and the ongoing property developments there for yourself.

On the O&G play, don't you see any similarity in the rally of MEGB shares which is based on a call & put option between a HK based Malaysian and the major shareholder. Real or scam, time will decide.

The road maintenance sector is still their bread and butter business (this was privatised from JKR) and I reckon that the counter is probably worth around RM 1.00 using fundamental analysis.

With all this jaw-boning etc., if you are interested in this counter, and considering the rally is technical in nature, it pays to give very close attention to technical analysis. Because when more people develop awareness of the "rally", the result could be particularly ugly.

Posted by redwed > 2014-04-12 22:02 | Report Abuse

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_cand

This is maybe the most comprehensive free study on Candlestick.. Learn this first, and you know the power within the candles.. It is OBJECTIVE. It show PRICE ACTION. Not some formula like other indicators you ever seen..

Posted by club35 > 2014-04-12 22:28 | Report Abuse

Of all businesses it is undertaking, only road maintenance section is proven, so it is wise just value the company based on current road maintenance contribution.

Posted by ksng0307 > 2014-04-12 23:12 | Report Abuse

mostly undertaking government projects, if change government better be careful, haha

Posted by 7surewin > 2014-04-13 01:17 | Report Abuse

Thank you Redwed for sharing lessons on candlesticks

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-13 11:11 | Report Abuse

Just a quick hint - property margins are at 15 to 20% of GDV.

If the property development is so-called "rosy", then you are looking at gross profit of RM 1.5 to 2.0 billion over a period of 10 years ie 150 to 200 million a year. This is an additional EPS of 50 to 66sen per share!!!!

And therefore, why is the MD selling???

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-13 12:01 | Report Abuse

RHB 40m, 57m, 80m TP 2.18
MIDF 40m, 79m, 100m TP 2.90

RIDF 40m, 68m, 90m TP 2.54

RHB lower projection because they assume De Centrum's GDV RM5bil and 25 yrs (vs management RM10bil over 15 yrs)

Why the MD sell, is the same question we have been asking why MH370 went missing. Let us not be too optimistic and too conservative, lets take the middle road, RIDF (RHB & MIDF divided by 2). Still looks decent.

As far as corrections, what can we do, just buy more. If not enough funds, hold it for a a year or two. If very sure of major correction coming (for TA experts only), the wait for the major correction (>20%). TA provides the voting power (timing and popularity), FA provides the substance (the floor price or margin of safety). After all, it has RM161m CASH (RM0.50), and expected dividend yield 5-6% p.a.

Good luck.

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-13 12:15 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the additional info, sosfinance.

Perhaps it is best to look at the counter from a fundamental basis and discount totally the De Centrum development. Note that the targets set by the analysts take into account the property development hype. If you are familiar with the Sunway Group, then do study their previous property projects in the Bangi area - all small ones with very slow take up rates.

Like I said earlier, on a fundamental basis, the value is closer to RM 1.00. Government spending on road maintenance has always been stagnant and with the increasing budget deficit, I would think that road maintenance may be given less priority.

All the hype pushed by the analysts so far on the "property development" and the "O&G play" seems to be linked to the PP exercise.


From here, I would say "Follow the Money". Any additional selling by the major shareholders will not be exactly a good sign.

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-04-13 12:57 | Report Abuse

Aiyo......pattern recognition sifu......good comment leh........quite realistic and good opinions for references.......lets see whether there will be real major wave 4 on the way or not lor.......hepi learning for all.......whatever the outcome......it is worth to learn from sifu here...........ha ha ha

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-04-13 13:04 | Report Abuse

Abang DS: wahh sikalang sudah manyak advance wor ... pattern recognition wor .. masa wa kerja kampung angkat kotak dulu sama si ah meng bawa lori ... kita tengok itu pattern ah .. musti sukat pakai pembaris .... kalau itu benang atau pencil salah lukis .. manyak susah woh ... mau sukat betul betul sikalang leh takut reban masuk air .. ha.. ha.. ha

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-04-13 13:07 | Report Abuse

Abang DS: dulu masa darjah enam englih wa manyak sohai sikalang pun sohai juga ... tapi tak apa asal bolih tulis dan baca.. sikalang sekolah tinggi tinggi tatak bolih gelenti main reban punya ... mau juga ada standby koyok kasi tampal ... tiap tiap hari minum kedondong juice boring mah ... hahaha

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-04-13 13:10 | Report Abuse

Aiyo AT......kokokkkkk.......ini reban learning academic mah.....manyak sifu with constructive comment kat sini mah......so. .......datang sini belajar......ukur ukur.....sukat sukat.......aiya...tak tau lah.......boleh belajar kalau ada sifu nak ajar.......bagus juga lor....FOC....tak payah pigi OBT punya class liao lor.......ha ha ha

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-04-13 13:15 | Report Abuse

Abang DS: setuju sama you ... belajar dan bersifu di learning academic prostaco (tuition center) .. sudah pandai sukat nanti ... boleh sukat reban universiti sumatec ... ha.. ha.. ha

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-13 13:39 | Report Abuse

Thanks gerry188. You are so funny, fundamental value at RM1.00. LOL. You make my day.

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-04-13 13:41 | Report Abuse

Aiyi. ...kokokkkk..betul juga....nanti habis belajar. ....balik reban tetap....sukat reban suma......ha ha ha

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-13 13:54 | Report Abuse

sosfinance - Glad I made your day and that you had a good laugh.

Technically, all indicators are have turned down with a bullish reversal pattern building. So, let's see if it retraces to 1.60 so that we can trade the counter.

Posted by ksng0307 > 2014-04-13 13:55 | Report Abuse

ayamtua, kau pun di sini, nampkanya kita dalam satu perahu, u jump i jump, haha

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-13 13:56 | Report Abuse

By the way, don't worry too much about so-called fundamental values. More money to be made in trading, haha!!

Posted by Amao Mao > 2014-04-14 08:09 | Report Abuse

Won't scare a bit. My average price only 1.475. Waiting for dividend and free warrant.

Posted by mk88 > 2014-04-14 08:18 | Report Abuse

No worry, projected profit growth 15% FY 2014

Last year also projected 15% growth but achieved 30% growth

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-04-14 09:22 | Report Abuse

Aiyo......what's happen ini......lowest price today very close to the price I sold liao leh..........aiya.......ini macam mana..........wave sifu...........when can re-enter ini................ha ha ha

Posted by tomjohor > 2014-04-14 10:24 | Report Abuse

Show still not finish lah! Final div and free warrent still not annouce yet! Price will consolidate then fly again...

Posted by 7surewin > 2014-04-14 15:14 | Report Abuse

aiyoh....wave sudah postponed. Now head and shoulder formation. Looks like another day of drop to touch support line, then rebound.Tmmr better rebound man....My theory about MD selling....he sells he bring down the price for cheaper buy. Dsonic MD buy, 2 days later bring down the price so much trapped those who follow buy....or maybe MD lost alot in Dsonic now has to cover back so sell shares lor....haha..

Posted by 7surewin > 2014-04-14 15:45 | Report Abuse

Today it hit 1.90 which is the support line so Dragon go in now lah...rebounding.

Posted by 7surewin > 2014-04-14 15:46 | Report Abuse

this rebound should be quite big because no ceiling to block the rise.....at least 30 cents up....hoepfully i am correcct lah

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-14 15:47 | Report Abuse

Actually the MD's selling is insignificant. The market cap is about RM660m, the value he sold is only about 0.4% of the market cap or less than 1% of his shareholding.

He still has more than 20%. Yes, it may be worrying if he dumps a lot like >5%. Even if he does that, we have to see if the business is intact. Unless he knows something we don't. Don't forget, directors is also human being, he also has commitment and a lifestyle. What's the point of holding so much 'paper' when say at the moment you need to use the money? No point speculating his sale.

Posted by 7surewin > 2014-04-14 15:52 | Report Abuse

i suspect later today suddenly rebound.....dont know correct or not. if not tmmr lor

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-14 16:01 | Report Abuse

Does it always happen like this? Wonder who is doing that.

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-04-14 17:59 | Report Abuse

Aiyo.....wave sifu.....sikalang always ding dong leh.......daily wave chart looks messy leh....directionless leh....so can use weekly or monthly chart to see or not.......ha ha ha

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-04-14 18:02 | Report Abuse

Aiyo....MD n son selling shares....sure sikit sikit ada affect sentiment one mah......all ctrs oso like that lor.....what to do....can ask the father n son dun sell again or not.......ha ha ha

Posted by mk88 > 2014-04-14 19:36 | Report Abuse

no wonder lar, cant go up up.
but the good sign is that there is ready buyers

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-14 20:23 | Report Abuse

Most stocks dropped too, such as Dsonic, Inari, OCK and many others, partly due to NYSE drops on last Thur and Fri. Those are with substance should not be a concern. Those who are just popular, and without substance, should reconsider.

Posted by mk88 > 2014-04-14 21:31 | Report Abuse

7win, now flag formation or Head &shoulder?

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-15 09:27 | Report Abuse

2013A-2015F
MIDF
PATMI : 48m, 79m, 102m
SF: 420m, 520m, 630m (shareholders' funds)
CASH: 220m, 240m, 300m
CE : 200m, 280m, 330m
ROCE: 24%, 28%, 30% (MIDF)

RHB
PATMI: 48m, 57m, 80m
ROCE: 17%, 33%, 26% (RHB)

Actually, the return on capital employed (taking out net cash or add net debt to SF), the ROCE of Protasco is pretty solid. I believe, if they use the net cash wisely, it will bring additional earnings. With the private placement (an additional Cash of RM100m, I believe, it is used for constructions and property development - will provide a decent return of double digits). If the private placement issued at RM1.95 (or PE of 13.5x of 2013), it will definitely benefits the company. And I believe the investors that put in at RM1.95, expect a decent return from the dividend and/or capital gain.