1. Most analysts' buy or sell or hold call normally is based on one year horizon. Nothing wrong with that, to relook at the situation yearly ask new variables or existing variables can effect the Company.
2. For medium term investor, a more considerable horizon to look at is 3-5 years. It is very difficult to look at longer than that unless is a concessionaire of toll roads, IPPs, water, etc.
3. Best if you can spot a counter that earnings can double say in 3-5 years, and at the moment is traded half of the price. Protasco is one of them. Profit now is about RM40m. Projected to be RM80m in 2015 (the conservative analyst). Forward PE of 8 times.
4. Also not forget, this earnings should be sustainable and visible.
1.Dividend normally announced twice a year. They hv just announced (Apr), 6sen. Another dividend announcement is in Dec 2014, expected another 6 sen (based on increased cash flow and profits expectation). DY = 12sen/190sen = 6.3%p.a. Fixed Deposits in about 3.0%p.a.?
2. Intrinsic value, EPS expected to double in 3 years. Using Benjamin calculation, assumed Protasco double their EPS in 10 years, hence the CAGR = 7.2%. Intrinsic value = RM2.74 per share. This is based on very conservative projections (worst case).
3. Using a more realistic case, say they double their EPS in 6 years, CAGR = 12%. The intrinsic value = RM3.90 per share.
4. Let's just say the price takes 6 years to double to RM3.80, your capital gain = 12% p.a. & DY = 6% p.a., your CAGR = 18% p.a for 6 years.
5. Buy and keep it. If the price double even before 6 years, then your compounding will be higher. Buy a lot, and keep it.
De Centrum, very near Infrastructure University KL is about 8km away from the Kajang MRT(Line 1) station, i.e about 10minutes drive. Development that is near major INFRASTRUCTURE line will have good upside. De Centrum development will have price upside.
This is a great buying opportunity for LT investors.
Buy now.....it confirm either the mrt 2 station is confirmed at upm which is around 2km from iukl. If Uniten/IUKL station is vonfirm then price lagi shot up......buy now.....cheap sales now
1. The Edge has feature the MD's view on its 100 acres land for De Centrum City. The trick is, the speed of the development is under Protasco's control, as the land was bought around 1995 and fully paid.
2. Whether it is developed over 10 years or 15 years, I believe, is hard to tell, it always depends on circumstances, new MRT line 2, recovery of housing after GST and short of supply, urbanisation rate near MRT, new highways to Putrajaya/Cyberjaya etc. The fact is Protasco has sustainability.
3. At 186sen, with dividend of 6 sen, technically your cost is only 180sen. From a fundamental investor perspective it is very attractive, because your dividend yield (assume dividend 12 sen) is 6.4%. The last I check, conventional bank gives about 3.1% p.a. for 12 months FD.
4. Recent run down of small cap stocks and weak sentiment, is a good time to accumulate. Of course, the lower the better.
186 is lowest already....soon it will shot up rm2 as 10 free 1 warrant await us also other than the 6 cents div announced....free warrant more attractive....buy and keep 1 yr u will be rewarded
If 1:10 warrant at RM1, it's equal to have another 10 cents to bonus, if another 6 cent is declared for 2nd dividend this year, a total yearly return will hit 22 cents!! That is >10% return p.a.!
1. There is a long write up from this week Edge by the MD on DeCentrum. The progression from Construction and trading of building materials to become a developer, give Protasco some competitive edge.
2. Just a very simple calculation from DeCentrum, RM10 billion, say in 20 years (MD said 10-15 yrs), hence, yearly GDV = RM500m p.a.. Conservatively, assumed profit of 20%, expected profit is RM100million p.a over a period of 20 years.
3. Protasco has other profitable businesses, construction of low cost housing for Government, about RM600m. (assumed over 5 years, say PBT of 10%, contribute RM12m pa.)
4. Maintenance of roads based on last 2 years PBT of 80-120m p.a.
3. Oil and Gas, guarantee profits of about RM20m p.a.
4. Educations make about RM2m for last two years.
5. OK, long term profits (average), p.a. Property Development = RM100m Construction of Government housing = RM12m Maintenance of Roads = RM80m Oil & Gas = RM20m Education = RM2m
Total = RM214m
Lets give a more conservative earnings, say, 80% of 214m, average = RM170m
6. Capitalisation of RM170m x PE of 12 times = RM2.1 billion. Today market cap it RM630m.
7. Conclusion: Buy, with good upside and limited downside, dividend yield of 6% p.a. Have not consider the free warrants 1:10.
Shares issued, 334,235,090. Expected earnings Rm170,000,000 Estimated EPS = Rm0.50 If assumed PE=12, Price = 12x0.5 = Rm6.00 When the earnings comes in, lets see.
Firebird! Are you in?! I'm collecting it as my mid long term counter. Attractive dividend yield. Personally I feel it should worth more than two at least.
Yes novice8, I am in. So, while waiting for the projects to bear fruit, I enjoy some dividends too, they do pay very well. I heard the MRT will be extended to near the DeCentrum project. Contrary to what some investors believe, its barren land if its not developed, but it will turn into a magnet once you have development.
1. Frankly, it is quite tough to know whether the place will turn out to be a magnet or barren land. However, if we look at it logically, with new infrastructure (NEW HIGHWAYS) and possible line 2 MRT, and the speed of development is under the control of Protasco, probability is better. They are not far from Putrajaya and Cyberjaya.
2. Even expert can be wrong, because many years back, they cannot predict the NEW HIGHWAYS (unless they have the blue print) or MRT station. I was told landed property is selling about RM700k.
3. The trick is actually up to the developer, once the INFRASTRUCTURE is in. Look at Bandar Utama, look at Setia Alam, look at Kota Damansara. These places is once upon a time plantation land with LOUSY access.
4. With proper planning, since the entire land belongs to Protasco, chances are GOOD that it is make into a GREAT CITY. Of course it takes years.
Besides Protasco, SILK is also doing well. Both have potential of growth. One with good track records, the other restructured into toll plus OSVs. If you are patience, can double in 2-3 years for both stocks because both are UNDERVALUED!
So far, only 2 analysts cover this stock. Based on their analysis, the growth in earnings is 25% to 30% p.a. It is rather aggressive (for next 3 years). The MD has announced in the press that he expect 15% growth in EPS for 2014. I believe it is very conservative and he can easily achieve more than 15%.
Let us say the compounding long term growth is 15% p.a. (>5 years), the price would double in a few years time.
Catalyst for the growth: 1. DeCentrum 2. Oil and Gas 3. Low Cost housing for governments 4. Expected more maintenance job for highways
The existing earnings now is about RM48m. The based is low, the contribution from DeCentrum can double it in a few years time.
pls invest your 80% portfolio of your total investment in this stock for 1 year....u will rewarded hugely
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
Report Abuse
Please Sign In to report this post as abuse.
Market Buzz
No result.
Featured Posts
MQ Trader
Introducing MY's First IPO Fund for Sophisticated Investors!
MQ Chat
New Update. Discover investment communities that resonate with your ideas
MQ Trader
M & A Value Partners IPO Equity Fund has been launched - Targeted 13% Return p.a
Latest Videos
0:17
New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
MQ Trader 203 views | 1 d ago
0:17
New IPO: An enterprise IT solutions provider that provides implementation services, maintenance, support and professional services, Vetece Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 433 views | 5 d ago
0:17
New IPO: A manufacturing and trading of biomass fuel products, particularly PKS and wood pellets company, Elridge Energy Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sosfinance
1,305 posts
Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-29 10:38 | Report Abuse
1. Most analysts' buy or sell or hold call normally is based on one year horizon. Nothing wrong with that, to relook at the situation yearly ask new variables or existing variables can effect the Company.
2. For medium term investor, a more considerable horizon to look at is 3-5 years. It is very difficult to look at longer than that unless is a concessionaire of toll roads, IPPs, water, etc.
3. Best if you can spot a counter that earnings can double say in 3-5 years, and at the moment is traded half of the price. Protasco is one of them. Profit now is about RM40m. Projected to be RM80m in 2015 (the conservative analyst). Forward PE of 8 times.
4. Also not forget, this earnings should be sustainable and visible.