Posted by Jupiter > 2016-04-01 23:30 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong Update:

Earnings Visibility Intact
Highlights:
We believe recent sell down in Evergreen’s shares is overdone. We still see earnings growth in Evergreen, underpinned by:
(1) The company’s ongoing cost rationalization exercise, which will result in overhead cost savings, reduced transportation cost, better production efficiency, as well as higher quality products; and
(2) An investment into a new fully-automated RTA furniture line, which will triple its existing production volume and reduce manpower, hence contributing to its earnings from 2H16 onwards.

Against its peers in the Southeast Asia region, Evergreen’s share price underperformed by 10.5-21%-pts YTD, indicating that recent sell down is overdone.

Our valuation has yet to reflect the value of its 4,410 acres of rubber plantation land in Kahang and the industrial land in Masai. We understand that combination of these two non-core assets could potentially fetch selling price of at least RM100m (or 11.6 sen).

Risks:
 Escalating raw material and labour costs;
 Slower-than-expected demand for MDF;
 Fluctuating foreign currency movement (in particularly the US$); and
 Slower-than-expected turnaround at the particleboard operations.

Forecasts  Maintained.

Rating BUY ()

 Positives –
(1) Attractive valuations with good earnings visibility;
(2) Healthy balance sheet; and
(3) Rubber plantation land bank value has yet to be reflected in current share price valuation.

 Negative – Perceived US$ play.

Valuation
 Maintain BUY recommendation with unchanged TP or RM1.60 (based on unchanged 11x FY17 core EPS of 14.6 sen).
 Our forecast has already factored in a ringgit forecast of RM4.00/US$ and RM3.80/US$ for FY16 and FY17 respectively.
 We continue to like Evergreen for its strong earnings visibility (underpinned by low key input prices and management’s ongoing efforts to further improve operational efficiencies and product diversification) and decent dividend yield of 3.5%

Posted by Alden Teck > 2016-04-02 13:22 | Report Abuse

Any best price to buy i n ???

Posted by win2win > 2016-04-02 17:26 | Report Abuse

http://www.nst.com.my/node/136750

We have to worry! This gonna hurt the earning!!

Posted by snwong13 > 2016-04-03 07:57 | Report Abuse

.
already factor in potential ringgit strengthening further & other risk.. ..
not factor in is coming RM110m land...
share price had down by > 30% from as high as >1.60 and maintaining 1.01-1,05 since Mar 16.
one of potential export counters with decent earning last qtr,
how far down can it go down?
you will notice every closing, >1m shares are catching panic seller to sell at 1.0..
good luck..

Posted by ChasingDreamz > 2016-04-04 11:54 | Report Abuse

OI pls make up ur minds fund managers!. aish my ave 1.03. wanna out but still cutloss intact. But not flying either. haisshh

Posted by AdCool > 2016-04-04 16:04 | Report Abuse

Don't worry. RM wont sustain the strength. Just that ppl is hoping for good outcome from OPEC. If you really think about it, who really want to cut production and hope for others to do the same if there s no contractual binding. Everyone is hoping some silly fella to cut production first and they maintain their production and profit more due to higher Crude price. They want the oil price to increase but no one want to sacrifice their production and profit.

Posted by Jupiter > 2016-04-05 08:44 | Report Abuse

The Arabs dont trust each other to keep their word. Why should the rest of the world think they will honor any commitment to non-opec members?

Posted by Jupiter > 2016-04-05 08:58 | Report Abuse

win2win, to me, those currency 'experts' hold no water. they are always wrong. When USD was strengthening, some of them predict RM will drop to 4.80. Now when RM strengthening, those same ppl predict RM will go all the way to RM3.50. Each day will have new prediction by a different firm. But these statements will sway traders/speculators. So they will have impact on your investment performance in the short term. EVG benefited earlier from being tagged as a USD beneficiary. So now it needs a strong set of 1Q and 2Q result to shed the perception that USD is all that it has going for it.

Posted by ChasingDreamz > 2016-04-05 09:32 | Report Abuse

today

Posted by ChasingDreamz > 2016-04-05 09:37 | Report Abuse

Jupiter might be right. But that will only shows when Q comes out. Right now still alot of ppls pegging it to USD. Or at least most speculators are.

Posted by MuttonCurry > 2016-04-05 09:45 | Report Abuse

Thanks green ... sold @1.06 ... hehehehe for decent margin. I take rest on this counter now.

Posted by skylifttoptoptop > 2016-04-05 09:49 | Report Abuse

huat ah !

Posted by alexwest > 2016-04-05 11:52 | Report Abuse

BREAK 1.08 GO UP....GO GO GO

Posted by radiance123 > 2016-04-05 11:52 | Report Abuse

so quiet this counter.

Posted by YF24 > 2016-04-05 18:50 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow if close 1.10 and above continue up futher☺

Posted by gypairz > 2016-04-06 11:49 | Report Abuse

Based on last year share price, increasing price started at RM1.10> on the month of April

Posted by Alden Teck > 2016-04-06 14:00 | Report Abuse

I had enough sold........

Posted by rmanze > 2016-04-06 15:55 | Report Abuse

wow in just 2 weeks the price goes up

Posted by knylck > 2016-04-06 16:21 | Report Abuse

Up up and away! Congratz to those who bought at 1.01
Sadly i dont have extra fund.. but im happy it is moving up so my losses reduced..

Posted by etal > 2016-04-06 16:38 | Report Abuse

Does anyone know the tp please?

Posted by AdCool > 2016-04-06 17:24 | Report Abuse

RM1.60

Posted by junyew1025 > 2016-04-06 17:28 | Report Abuse

RM1.60 based on hong leong research report

A good hidden counter and i think the Q1 report should be very good and some insider know already.....i basically all in to this counter

Posted by junyew1025 > 2016-04-06 17:31 | Report Abuse

Malaysia's Feb exports up 6.7% on year

Posted by Jupiter > 2016-04-06 18:14 | Report Abuse

USD drop but EVG still up with big volume? Syndicate again? There is really nothing much that has changed aside from USD/RM. Unless like what junyew said, got insider leak....

Posted by junyew1025 > 2016-04-06 20:03 | Report Abuse

based on the volume and price up ~10% in 2 days, news should be positive, good sign

Posted by Hotrod > 2016-04-06 21:42 | Report Abuse

Agree. Looking at the volume and price for the past 2 days, definitely something is brewing in the company.

Posted by nicky > 2016-04-07 09:40 | Report Abuse

Surprisingly,,RED today

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2016-04-07 09:43 | Report Abuse

oil up

Posted by MuttonCurry > 2016-04-07 09:43 | Report Abuse

Shark got trapped thinking rinngit will weaken. Now searching for ikan billis to dump.

Posted by nicky > 2016-04-07 10:09 | Report Abuse

Below RM1.10.....

Posted by gypairz > 2016-04-07 10:30 | Report Abuse

Minutes on the Fed's meeting last month

Posted by nicky > 2016-04-07 10:40 | Report Abuse

what to do with Fed's meeting ???

Posted by ExCFO > 2016-04-07 12:56 | Report Abuse

Trade2win mk a call to buy in at 1.08 and above with TP 1.20 within 14 days, I think they are right. Those who wanted to dump would have finish dumping by now. the exchange rate for first quarter were above $4.00 so expect first quarter result to be reasonably good.

Posted by junyew1025 > 2016-04-07 13:35 | Report Abuse

ExCFO, do you know when will be the Q report out?

Posted by Hotrod > 2016-04-07 14:27 | Report Abuse

The buy rate is still relatively strong. I think institutional funds are still acquiring.

Posted by junyew1025 > 2016-04-07 14:57 | Report Abuse

neglect currency issues....this counter is earning money even at 3.20 times and dividend (3.5%) giving company.....so fund manager definately like it.

Posted by nicky > 2016-04-07 15:41 | Report Abuse

neglect currency issues ??? Lol...How can u ignore the currency issue that affect company's profit ?

Posted by ExCFO > 2016-04-07 15:44 | Report Abuse

Potentially it could be a takeover target by Latitud given the current share price. Potentially, Latitud could offer a share swap. I am sure their operation will complement each other.

Posted by aku6043 > 2016-04-07 22:40 | Report Abuse

buy

Posted by skylifttoptoptop > 2016-04-08 09:04 | Report Abuse

hadnsome la.... rm1.2 sap sap sui

Posted by skylifttoptoptop > 2016-04-08 09:12 | Report Abuse

1.11 jump 1.15, very good bros and sisters.. pls continue buy !!!

Posted by ChasingDreamz > 2016-04-08 09:52 | Report Abuse

testing power only lah. See other furniture tak naik sgt pun. Sold all mine 1.15, if retrace, maybe will buy again.

Posted by ChasingDreamz > 2016-04-08 09:56 | Report Abuse

maybe ill que 1.04 again. If get, good. If dint and up away, ill acept im wrong and just satisfied with my gain

Posted by weechin53 > 2016-04-08 10:03 | Report Abuse

Yesterday bought 1.10 this morning sold 1.16! Cheers!

Posted by ruby828 > 2016-04-08 10:35 | Report Abuse

going north all the way....

Posted by kk > 2016-04-08 10:36 | Report Abuse

patience.~
it need few day to go up

Posted by chiongster1234 > 2016-04-08 10:39 | Report Abuse

evergreen, forever green?

Posted by Jupiter > 2016-04-08 11:12 | Report Abuse

huh? Latitude takeover EVG?

They normally announce their 1Q result same day as their AGM. Last year their AGM and 1Q announcement was on 22 May. This year it might be 20 May if they follow pattern of holding it on a Friday.

Posted by junyew1025 > 2016-04-08 16:07 | Report Abuse

Good, other funiture didn't drop as much as evergreen.....from 1.60 -1.00, so it undervalued.

Posted by junyew1025 > 2016-04-08 16:10 | Report Abuse

Based on volume and price up like that...at least have a few days of uptrend, wait n see. cut loss at RM1