Posted by RainT > 2017-11-22 23:45 | Report Abuse

Jason !

Thanks for sharing !

Posted by SuperPanda > 2017-11-23 00:03 | Report Abuse

Hi Jason, good to hear above. Thats the forum for, sharing and discussing the facts.

Make it short, both good stock. Now at cheap price. If cant decide, just buy them.

Only different is our way of invest. How much money hve, how long can hold capital, how much profit we want?

Im trader and investor both. I keep track daily basis. During mrket down, every hour. I got time. Own print business and a builder.

My strategy pick stock:
1-Short to mid term period
2-Growth in earnings quarterly
3-Must >1 cents EPS for RM1 invest quarterly
4-PE <15 or ave sector PE
5-Good average trading volume
6-Good forecast

By compare above, i chose mmsv over iq, but that doesnt mean iq not good. its jst my way. i can be wrong.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2017-11-23 00:16 | Report Abuse

As for mmsv, my TP is 1.95. Will sell all and switch to krono (mmsv Q4 projected lower than Q3) but krono have better growth in Q4 than mmsv.

FYI, i only pick 1 stock in same sector for safety and diversify. But if iq can hit >4m earning coming report, i will review my pick.

Posted by godhand > 2017-11-23 16:19 | Report Abuse

both good. iq definitely more safe.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2017-11-23 16:25 | Report Abuse

we'll see in 4 wks. no bad intention just to show which perform better.

Posted by kenz88 > 2017-11-24 10:46 | Report Abuse

why drop???

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-11-24 14:10 | Report Abuse

Going back to 2.00
:)

Posted by kenz88 > 2017-11-24 15:22 | Report Abuse

drop like shiiii

Posted by SuperPanda > 2017-11-24 17:30 | Report Abuse

if qtr not perform will become worst

Posted by investmentMonster > 2017-11-29 17:55 | Report Abuse

die

Posted by Sebastian Sted Power > 2017-11-29 17:59 | Report Abuse

1.80 only will consider buy

Posted by Op3rs > 2017-11-29 18:00 | Report Abuse

悲剧

Posted by WaAdaLui > 2017-11-29 18:00 | Report Abuse

扑街咯!!!! Rugi !!!

Posted by WaAdaLui > 2017-11-29 18:03 | Report Abuse

死到直一直!!!

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-11-29 18:24 | Report Abuse

CPteh like it

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-11-29 18:25 | Report Abuse

Cpteh must fall in love with this!!

Posted by rkgfantasy > 2017-11-29 18:31 | Report Abuse

lucky i run before too late, god bless those holder

Posted by godhand > 2017-11-29 18:38 | Report Abuse

Long term holder. Doesn’t matter

Posted by Chean Yeh > 2017-11-29 18:41 | Report Abuse

bomb!!

Posted by Deslim > 2017-11-29 19:48 | Report Abuse

tragedy, business not expanding over past quarters, may need for another half year to recover, and the directors
weren't honest in last QR report

Posted by hstha > 2017-11-29 19:49 | Report Abuse

Bad result.


Kesm may be better to buy. Uptrend.A bounus issue and a split is likely to be just around the corner.

Posted by shpg22 > 2017-11-29 20:02 | Report Abuse

holy moly....better run for your life

Posted by life123 > 2017-11-29 22:17 | Report Abuse

some of my analysis from the quarter report:
i. Lower profit compared to previous quarter due to one off expense 2.4M for employee performance reward (bonus?), this one itself already 3 cents eps, already same with last quarter result.
ii. Still got delay of new product in this quarter, and resulted in lower revenue & profit
iii. Management still optimistic towards existing & new products, but they did mention the main challenge is the time line to develop new product, in next 2 quarter, we wont be able to see the profit from this new product.

Just my point of view, this time loss actually included one time bonus expense which is 2.4m, this is same with last quarter eps already, which is 3 cents. However, it can't be deny this financial year the company wont be doing good like FY16, may need 2 more quarter to enjoy the profit from new products.

Posted by cyeec2000 > 2017-11-29 22:28 | Report Abuse

What is the their new products?

Posted by life123 > 2017-11-29 22:36 | Report Abuse

i assume should be the OBM ( Original Brand Manufacturing ) , Lumnic.

It seems they experienced some issues and did not manage well the profit for the transition period from ODM to OBM.
They focused too much on R&D on last quarter, and eventually loss some business for ODM.

Posted by RainT > 2017-11-30 02:19 | Report Abuse

This IQ director telling lies

In the last qtr when weak result , they said this weak result will not happen again in coming qtr but now result out and it is worse than last qtr

Not transparent management and tell lies to lure investor to continue to hold

Will sell and cut loss IQ tomorrow

Posted by warchest > 2017-11-30 06:40 | Report Abuse

Damn shitty, regardless the reason. From loe profit turns into loss. Perhaps that's like Tek Seng. Once loss continues to loss

Posted by pputeh > 2017-11-30 08:53 | Report Abuse

dump this morning. Directors not true to words

Posted by coldinvestor > 2017-11-30 08:57 | Report Abuse

will open dropping more than 20%

Posted by dompeilee > 2017-11-30 09:09 | Report Abuse

Bought some IQGroup @ 2.15

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2017-11-30 09:10 | Report Abuse

buy for rebound. oversold impact. strongly buy

Posted by ipodkaki > 2017-11-30 09:19 | Report Abuse

Buy more die more.

Posted by Gamuda22 > 2017-11-30 09:21 | Report Abuse

Sapu ! Sapu semua !

Posted by kenz88 > 2017-11-30 09:34 | Report Abuse

shittttttttt

Posted by Anti_Barking_Dogs > 2017-11-30 09:43 | Report Abuse

The management team has serious integrity issue. It's no wonder investors are punishing this company heavily by selling the stock en masse.

Posted by dompeilee > 2017-11-30 10:02 | Report Abuse

Bought more @ 2.14

Posted by RainT > 2017-11-30 10:03 | Report Abuse

Shld we small ikan bilis trust the management again ????

In the qtr report , written again coming qtr will be good prospect.....

Posted by shpg22 > 2017-11-30 10:06 | Report Abuse

Maybe limit down today.

Posted by sixmil > 2017-11-30 10:08 | Report Abuse

The earnest measure is integrity

Posted by RainT > 2017-11-30 10:09 | Report Abuse

In the qtr report hinted coming 2 qtr will be bad

Only after that will be OK

Posted by sixmil > 2017-11-30 10:09 | Report Abuse

I ran. Looking for alternative LED related high entry level business entities.

Posted by sixmil > 2017-11-30 10:14 | Report Abuse

Well, perhaps that is the sort of hand waving nature of the management. On the one hand, prospect is good for the next quarter; on the other, we need a couple of quarters to get this cycle over us. Incredible oxymoron in business prospect writing.

Posted by godhand > 2017-11-30 10:15 | Report Abuse

@raint numbers dont lie. Recheck the cash flow and valuation. honestly, i think this company is under heavy restructuring. this kind of result is inevitable, i already foresee for few quarters but this result is lower than my expectation. i sincerely believe this company should be valued over 1billion but not now. like u said, u think this management words cant be trusted, then i think u shud follow your guts

Posted by sixmil > 2017-11-30 10:16 | Report Abuse

Run Lola, Run (Seriously I don't know what this movie is about)

Posted by kentrade888 > 2017-11-30 10:17 | Report Abuse

Food For Thought 反思者
Author: Lim Wy | Latest post: Wed, 29 Nov 2017, 11:23 PM

Sharing Stock Info

Blog Headlines (by Date) Blog Index
LED 系列之第一篇：IQGROUP 篇 之第二篇 业绩大跌，你准备好了吗？
Author: Lim Wy | Publish date: Wed, 29 Nov 2017, 11:23 PM


November 29, 2017
|
Morgan Lim 反思者




笔者在上个月股价跌了40%时，写了一篇IQGROUP的文章，有兴趣的可以参考以下的link。
https://limwy94.wixsite.com/foodforthought/single-post/2017/10/18/LED-%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F-%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E7%AF%87%EF%BC%9A-IQGROUP' target='_blank'>https://limwy94.wixsite.com/foodforthought/single-post/2017/10/18/LED-%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F-%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E7%AF%87%EF%BC%9A-IQGROUP

笔者曾在第一篇写了以下这段话:
"就以管理层的回复来看，我们绝对应该相信接下来的Q2 业绩报告是不会有多美的。而自己品牌的新产品会在明年才推出，所以IQGroup要等多至少两个季度后，才有可能有亮丽的表现。 所以我们剩下来该做的就是做些简单的估计来预测股价在Q2业绩后会如何表现。

Case 1：
若 Q2 的业绩如 Q1 一样，最新四个季度的EPS是 22.53。 但，以上管理层说了会转移专注回传统的ODM业务，所以笔者相信Q2季度会比Q1来得好，可是或许比去年来得低。所以笔者纯粹猜测：

Case 2：
Q2 的业绩EPS 有6 cent，业绩将yoy下滑27%，那么最新四个季度的EPS是 25.53。若市场还是保持一样给予PE 10的valuation，那么股价将会是RM 2.55。若市场非常悲观，给予还没“冷眼效应”前的低 PE 8.4的valuation，那么股价将会是RM 2.15。 （这应该不可能发生吧)"


今日19 Nov 2017, 业绩出炉了，看看吧。



没看错，大跌了所有人的眼镜，竟然迎来了一个亏损的季度报告。与笔者自己先前预测的6 cent EPS相比起来，这个季度EPS竟然只有 -0.28 cents。看看什么原因吧：


是的，主要三个原因：
1）Revenue下滑和sales model mixes改变了。
2）一次性花费 RM 2.42 million for Employee Performance Reward。(Erm....想好的一面，哈哈，员工今年的表现很优异哦！去年的4份Quarter Report都没看过这个花费 XD)
3)Foreign Exchange Loss RM 0.38 million

(PS: 注意！ R&D for ODM are currently working for new product launches which will launch in the months and year ahead. 也就是说 ODM 需要 months和 year才能恢复呀！)



看回上个季度报告，里面的Foreign Exchange Loss比这个季度更高呢，Foreign Exchange Loss 高达 RM 1.15 m。所以要看真正的Operating Income, 上个季度是 RM 4.28 m, 而这个季度如果除去one off expenses和Foreign Exchange Loss，真正的 Operating Income 会是 RM 2.1 m，比上个季度还来得更低。对笔者而言，也就是真正的Operating Income qoq下跌了50%之多，这是笔者不敢想象的。

看回笔者在第一篇写的，管理层说过的话：
"Due to the recent decline in ODM business, we are currently making some adjustment to balance our current R&D resources to refocus on some of our traditional ODM business. With the continued support and new business opportunities from our ODM business, we remain confident regarding prospect ahead of us."

Erm, 管理层在上个季度说了会专注回ODM business。但是这个季度ODM还是做不好，原因如下：


这个季度的业绩做得比上个季度差原因就是ODM customers 减少新产品的推出，所以IQGROUP呢，哎呀，无疑就是雪上加霜。上个季度OBM做不好，focus回ODM，但是这个季度ODM的顾客slow down，IQGROUP两头不到岸，还真可怜。

好，可怜够了，我们看看以下的图：


图1：这个季度的。



图2：上个季度的。

读者们，注意看，PBT 那的column，Manufacturing 和 Trading就是导致这个季度qoq还会持续下滑的罪魁祸首了。我们可以知道的就是ODM直接影响了这两个Segments。

笔者读了后，笔者个人对IQGROUP做了个猜测，上个季度，Manufacturing迎来了亏损，原因是专注于OBM，忽略ODM。而这个季度ODM应该不会比上个季度差的了，可是Manufacturing在这个季度亏损得更多了，笔者猜想应该就是说公司花了很多钱在manufacture自己brand的产品，可是是卖不出去的，所以亏损也就增加了。
至于Trading Segment，OBM根本还没有产品卖，所以这边卖得差就应该全数赖在ODM身上吧，哈哈。

所以呢，为了减少uncertainty，笔者之后会想办法找indicators来追踪IQGROUP的ODM segment业绩，希望笔者努力后会幸运地发现蛛丝马迹吧。


再看看下图吧，


非常不乐观的，类似这样的情况会持续一整个FY，也就是持续多两个Quarter。Erm，感觉很惨叻，我们来试试forecast EPS 和 市场会给的PE吧。

若下个季度，ODM还是做不好，OBM也做不好，EPS就和上个季度一样吧。EPS若是 3 cents，全年EPS会是 12.76 cents。以现在低迷的市场，PE给个10 的话，哇靠，股价只值 RM 1.28。这样写不是吓死人。

我们乐观点，下个季度EPS 5 cents，全年EPS会是 14.76 cents。PE 10， 股价等于RM 1.48，哇，还是好低。

我们再乐观一点，PE 15，下个季度 EPS 5 cents，全年EPS会是 14.76 cents，股价将会是 RM 2.22。看起来还没那么恐怖，可是现在的股价是 RM 2.76。 Erm，所以嘛，读者们看着办吧。

人嘛，或多或少都有些肤浅，哈哈。当看到东西好时，会有些乐观，但看到东西不好时，就会多多的悲观。明天股价免不了大跌了的，至于是Opportunity还是Crisis，读者们自己做决定吧。

所以呢，笔者对IQGroup的建议就是：
“若要操作IQGroup，短期内最多就只是投机 ，玩个Rebound 和 “Hit and Run” 。因为毕竟短期的业绩是不会多美的”
“若要长期操作，下个月Q3出来后，若股价真的hit 到 RM 2.22，才来考虑长期投资吧。以那么便宜的价钱，收个1-2年，等OBM和ODM的产品真的推出，成长再次出现，EPS恢复之时，那才来考虑在这个股票赚个100% 吧” (前提是股灾不要在这段期间出现发生)

纯粹个人意见，希望可以帮到大家，买卖自负。

反思者 上



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Posted by Anti_Barking_Dogs > 2017-11-30 10:19 | Report Abuse

"We see that the current conditions will remain throughout the remainder of this financial year, but going forward thereafter we anticipate positive performance as the various new products are rolled out into the market". Well, they also said during the AGM that the bad 1Q results were a one-off event, but see what happens in 2Q? Even worse. Management seems to be taking us for a ride!

Posted by 7skies > 2017-11-30 10:51 | Report Abuse

lucky chose not to trust the director's statement!..othrwise mampuss

Posted by WaAdaLui > 2017-11-30 10:58 | Report Abuse

短期 业绩没有复苏的迹象。小心身陷泥沼

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > 2017-11-30 11:04 | Report Abuse

do one thing if you still have this counter, Sell.

Posted by Trader Man > 2017-11-30 11:06 | Report Abuse

any expert want to come out and say the result actually not bad due to bla bla bla ?