Clearly Alam's trend is changing. It will stand to benefit from:
22 October 2012
Oil & Gas: Capex for offshore oil, gas jobs to hit RM176bn Projects in offshore Malaysia are forecast to see the largest capex in Asia, at more than RM176bn over the next 5 years, ahead of China and India, according to a recent market report. The Regional Perspectives Offshore Asia Oil and Gas Market Report to 2015 predicts that deepwater developments in Malaysia will continue to gather pace, with 84 fixed platform units and eight floating production units to be installed between 2011 and 2015. During the same period, the country is expected to spend some RM23bn on 2,490km of pipelines, ranking Malaysia first in Asia's pipeline market. (Business Times)
Just my personal thought. I do not believe their TP. That's only for reference and most of the time, when they call for buy, and you buy they will sell before the TP.
THE oil and gas sector is still able to offer promising upside potential to investors over the near to medium term, backed by growing energy demand as well as unlocking of new resources, said a fund manager.
"The oil and gas story is still upholding," said Henrietta Lance, senior portfolio manager of Amundi Islamic Global Resources.
Speaking at a briefing hosted by AmIslamic Funds Management, Lance foresees that Asian energy demand will grow from 18 million barrels a day in 2010 to 24 million in 2020 and 30 million in 2030.
"In Europe, new technology is breathing fresh life into mature Norwegian and UK North Sea reserves and unlocking new resources and extending mature reserve life, while some American manufacturers have taken the decision to 're-shore'.
"Energy is not only 'defensive' in today's markets, there is also upside potential for investors though these dynamics are not yet reflected by equity markets," she added.
In terms of outlook, global resource companies with good visibility of earnings and attractive risk-reward ratios are among the key strengths.
Lance is over-weighting on well diversified large caps with healthy cash flow profiles in the energy sector.
Meanwhile, AmInvest retail funds director Ng Chze How, who was also at the briefing, commented on AmIslamic Fund Management's AmCommodities Equity fund.
Ng said AmCommodities Equity is a feeder fund that invests in Amundi Islamic Global Resources.
"With the recent surge in commodities trend, we have witnessed the fund recording a 8.15 per cent return in just three months.
"This is in tandem with global commodity prices rising 10 per cent in the same duration of July to September 2012.
"The fund has also recorded a one-year performance of 9.63 per cent, outperforming its benchmark of 8.12 per cent," said Ng
Main Factors For O&G pick:- Cheap Valuations - Alam at 0.8x BV, upsides at 1.1x BV, est>+40% OSV Trading Strategies - Alam with small size AHT & SSV. ImpendingContracts Awards - Petronas Carigali needs 34OSVs, worth RM3.2 bil. Improving Utilization - Steady daily charter rates. Long term 3-5 years contracts.
AlamMaritimbroke the 5 month bands of RM 0.55, broke the 50 MA and 100 MA. News of Petronas Carigali calling for tender on 34 OSVs, gives market’s attention. Timing of Malaysia OSVs upgrade is interesting, also reflect the optimism across in Singapore. Alam’s RM532 mil market capital made it sensitive to change in outlooks on any new contract wins.
Mr.Excelyou(sifu)your understanding and knowledge on Alam shall be deeply appreciated and commendable. I have long ago study this counter, way back in mid-2011, price from 0.90 to 0.51 not very long ago. Presently I am holding about 200,000 share. I strongly believe that if you have holding power and the company fundamental is strong, eventually the counter will be very rewarding.
Loss=ENO , hee hee Not sure at this junction I want to hop on , b performing very well for last 4 weeks ........... consolidation is imminent !!!!!! DONT b greedy , Uncle Ben Rice say so !!!!!!
davidccwan: Good luck for you. This 2nd half year is a good run for O&G counters. Alam shall rise since this counter is one of the cheapest in valuation among the average industry and it past high PE.
before Victor Valdez further solidifies his stupidity on the concept of "perception of fundamentals", let me just go on record and state some of the things i and others had posted when his theory was proposed. price slide when no contracts were won. This is just in case he doesn't understand English in its entirety nor the laws of fundamentals in investment.
Posted by KC Loh > Sep 9, 2012 01:10 PM | Report Abuse X i think still got at least three Qs of earnings from legacy contracts to go, so the price will yo-yo between 51-56 sens! taking HwangDBS's and Maybank's TP of 60sens at 10x PER. it was 8.8 PER when the price was hovering at 54 sens. but just buy below 52 sens for a margin of safety and sell well before the TP of the analysts' estimated TP! that would be the logical thing to do until/if new contracts is won!
Posted by royslade > Aug 30, 2012 09:33 PM | Report Abuse Brother KC Loh... I just want to say that it appears that you were right on the money regarding ALAM as being cash strapped & short on modern vessels, etc.
Posted by kcfan > Sep 4, 2012 09:25 AM | Report Abuse Ayam lari...counter.
Posted by Marcus Beh > Sep 5, 2012 12:19 PM | Report Abuse Lagi drop...,!
Posted by syahnaz07 > Sep 6, 2012 11:09 AM | Report Abuse gone case counter
Let it be what it going a be kc...perception n interpretation was personal understanding..u done with what u know n notice to every one...investing in was by personal judgement..loose n gain were the right time jump in n out..am always follow this forum but seldomly commenting the issue...thanks for the useable note..my advice just ignore the personal attacking post..tq..
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
laikinwai
28 posts
Posted by laikinwai > 2012-10-22 11:03 | Report Abuse
alam shooting too fast......give up...