Next stage of growth – pipelay market. Alam’s partnership with Swiber allows the company to address execution risk by leveraging on Swiber’s expertise as EPCIC contractor to bid for contracts, as well as jointly share the capital outlay of the barge to effectively manage its gearing level. We believe this move is a step in the right direction to move up the value chain, having already established itself in the near-saturated 5,000bhp AHTS market
A market underserved by local players. Historically, the pipelaying market is largely dominated by international players, such as McDermott and Saipem, as they are usually the ones with the capacity to own the asset (barge). However, such landscape has changed in recent years as local oil and gas players have since grown under the stewardship of Petronas. To date, there are 4 local pipelay barge owners in the market – SapuraCrest Petroleum, Perisai Petroleum, Sigur Ros Sdn Bhd, and PBJV Group Sdn Bhd – with others like Sime Darby Marine Sdn Bhd and Master Offshore Sdn Bhd expected to join in the fray. There are only a handful of local barges operating in the country currently. Alam’s new barge would benefit from the low local participation.
Mr Excel, noted on the exciting pipelay market is big in dollar sense but can we safely say that it is also already overcrowded? From what has been announced by the big players like Sapura etc, the contract will be given on long term basis. So, if one of the players got the contract, the rest will "gigit jari" and stuck with expensive asset.
Normally Petronas award a project, assume 230km pipe to few players. If one player, the pipelaying will took many years to finish. When the last 5km pipe finish completed, the first 25km pipe might need replacement already.
SapuraKencana’s double orders on yesterday could signal the start of exciting contract flows for the O&G sector, especially in the FPSO segment which has been going through a dry spell this year.
Indicators 1) Trendline - Broke above the Uptrendline (Bullish) 2) Support/Resistance - Formed higher high (Bullish) 3) MACD -3G4R (Bearish) . Waiting for 4R1G for a bullish signal 4) RSI - Overbought region and declining towards 70% (Bearish) .Bearish signal getting stronger
a) More Bullish- it rebound from 70% and incline again b) More Bearish- If break below 80%
5) STO - Bearish Crossover and and declining toward 80%(Bearish). 6) Ichimoku - a) Above support cloud (Bullish). b) Conversion line above the base line (Bullish). c) Price above the baseline ( Bullish) 7) Candlestick - Shooting Star Formed at the resistance of 0.73. ( Bearish).
Expect stronger YoY results in 3Q12. Expect Alam to deliver a steady net profit of MYR14m-16m in 3Q12 (2Q12: MYR16m; 3Q11: MYR13m). OSV operations are likely to anchor group earnings, underpinned by steady vessel utilisation and charter rates, as offshore drilling campaigns step up. However, the stronger OSV earnings are likely to be offset by pretax losses at its underwater services division (- MYR2-4m) due to insufficient job wins to cover overheads. Meanwhile, its offshore installation & commissioning (OIC) 51:49 JV with Swiber will bring in MYR2m-3m in associate profits.
Maintain BUY. All in, we are positive on Alam’s OSV division, which we expect to bag a few more contracts in the near term. We thereby reiterate our BUY recommendation on Alam and value the stock at RM1.25, pegged to 12x FY13 EPS. Our fair value implies a return of 76.1%. Key downside risks include: i) the failure to secure new contracts for its subsea and OIC businesses, and ii) intense competition in the OSV segment causing charter rates to dwindle. OSK
ALAM is expected to release its 9M12 results in mid-Nov with a flattish QoQ net income growth at c.RM15m for 3Q12. Yesterday, ALAM continued to show its ability to secure contracts as it bagged a new RM22m AHTS contract. Nonetheless, we have trimmed FY12E earnings by 7% due to an expected lower margin from SOGT and a loss of RM1m-RM3m from its Subsea division in 3Q12. We have also cut FY13-FY14 EPS by 15%-20% after the company lost a contract to SKPETRO last week. As a result, our new price target is now RM0.92/share, based on an unchanged CY13 PER of 10x. Even then, this implies a potential upside of 28% from its current price. As such, we remain positive on ALAM and continue to rate it as an OUTPERFORM. Kenanga
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
keringkontang
179 posts
Posted by keringkontang > 2012-10-31 15:34 | Report Abuse
kembali hijau....go go go!!!