Agreed. Swkpltn is under Taann's leadership is expect to pay generous dividend too. Final /special dividend should be good, especially CPO remain bullish into 2022.
Landbank 43576ha,planted 34226ha. If planted valued at Rm45k per ha(like Ijmplt) would imply price of Rm5.50 per share.Current price also below IPO price Rm2.80 Afraid Taann and 'white hair' want to 'steal' Swkplt cheap now that it has turned the corner and FYE21 eps more than 50cts
Description The information below shows the production figures of Sarawak Planation Berhad for the month of November 2020 Product Metric Tonne FFB 27,774.26 CPO 11,037.43 PK 2,182.67
Correctloh...if u factor in increase in cost of 10%...the production cost of CPO is Rm 2750 m/t.
Current CPO future 12 mths average ( Average from future Jan 2022 to Dec 2022) pm 4250!
U still talking about very outstanding Gross Margin of about 36% compare to usual 10% mah!
Plantation will record sky high profit going fwd loh!
Btw...usual norm of cost of production is only around Rm 2200 per tonnes!
Posted by Johnzhang > Dec 10, 2021 11:33 AM | Report Abuse
Some Investors may be concern of the labour and fertilizer cost increase on plantation company’s performance in 2022. The IBs and media are very prone to look at only one side of the equation and they seriously lack professionalism.
My view is oil palm plantation will still be laughing to the banks next year. Mind you that most big time CPO traders expect CPO to trade above $5,000 during Jan-Mac 2022 and between $4,000 to $5,000 during Apr-Dec 2022.
Cost of production (at estate level) during recent years (2017-2020) were $1,500 -$1,800 pmt CPO depending on the cost efficiency of each planter. Average CPO price over same period (2017-2020) was about $2,490 pmt as shown in the calculation below : 2017 $2,800 2018 $2,150 2019 $2,250 2020 $2,760 ----------------- Avg $2,490 ================= Therefore, average Gross Margin in past recent years enjoyed by planters were $990 to $690 pmt CPO. (ie average CPO price $2,490 minus cost of production $1,500 to $1,800).
Due to higher labour and fertilizer costs, the cost of production is expected to increase by max. $300 pmt CPO basis. The new cost of production for 2022 shall be $1,800 -$2,100 pmt CPO. Based on 2022's CPO price forecasted by big time CPO traders averaging $4,500 , the Gross Margin of the planters will be $2,700 to 2,400 pmt CPO.
2022's Gross Margin is 2.7 times to 3.5 times higher than the average of 2017-2020.
@Stockraider, could you share how do you get the cost of production of $2,750 and $2,200 as stated by you ? The cost of production the oil palm industry talk about is always the total cost involved in producing FFB plus conversion cost to CPO at ESTATE LEVEL.
@stockraider, may I refer you to Bplant's 2020 annual report page 38 (CEO's Review). It is clearly stated that CPO production cost of $1,649 /mt. Bplant is always rated as one of the less efficient producer.
I read some article recently saying Indonesia cost is about USD 450 to 500 and Msia is USD 500 to USD 550.
Thus say take the highest USD 550 x Rm 4.25 = about Rm 2350 factor in 10% to 20% compliance cost of labor Requirement plus fertiliser Rm 2750 is a very conservative figure mah!
Of course, if lower we still can benefit even more mah!
Posted by Johnzhang > Dec 10, 2021 12:56 PM | Report Abuse
@Stockraider, could you share how do you get the cost of production of $2,750 and $2,200 as stated by you ? The cost of production the oil palm industry talk about is always the total cost involved in producing FFB plus conversion cost to CPO at ESTATE LEVEL.
Posted by Johnzhang > Dec 10, 2021 1:48 PM | Report Abuse
@stockraider, may I refer you to Bplant's 2020 annual report page 38 (CEO's Review). It is clearly stated that CPO production cost of $1,649 /mt. Bplant is always rated as one of the less efficient producer.
There are all sort of Cost of Production (COP) figures quoted in the media and has caused confusion to investors. According to what I know, the standard version of COP consistently adopt by all oil palm plantations here and Indonesia are ALL OPERATIONS COST, OVERHEAD, DEPRECIATION AND OTHER RELATED CHARGES . THEY INCLUDE FIELD UPKEEP, FERTILIZER, HARVESTING, TRASPORTATION, LABOUR, DEPRECIATION, MILLING, CESS AND SALES TAX. (Sales tax only applicable to east Malaysia).
Financing (which is capital cost ), Income tax and Windfall tax (which are tax on profit, not on production activities) do not form part of COP.
COP for plantation in East Malaysia is generally higher due to sales tax imposed by state government. COP for plantation in Indonesia is higher by anywhere between RM200 -300 compared to plantation in Malaysia due to overall higher input cost, logistic cost and "the hidden costs". Unit labour cost in Indonesia may be low but productivity is also much lower thus nullifying the advantage
Climate change and extreme weather is going to limit agriculture production globally. Edible oil crop prices will stay elevated for years and benefit oil palm plantations. Will investors continue to ignore high earnings and high DY sector ?
CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q.. SWPLTN's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 34.15 sen Est EPS Q4 21 is 16.5 sen FY21 EPS shall be 50.65 sen. Share price @ 4/1/22 $240 PE is( 240/50.65) = 4,7X % return on share price is (50.65/240 )=21% If dividend payout is 60%, DY is 12.6%
Swkpltn's own FFB production in Q4 2021 was 84,682 mt (Q4 2020 73,088 mt), up 16% y-o-y which is fantastic in view of worsening labour shortage. Avg CPO price is 54% higher y-o-y ($5,154 vs $3,341) Therefore, Q4 2021 y-o-y earning growth shall be explosive.
However, FFB production for Jan 2022 is 9% lower y-o-y (20.038 mt vs 22,042 mt) while CPO price is 43% higher y-o-y ($5,354 VS $3,748) . We will still see earning growth for Q1 2022
If you look at YOY balance sheet, they have been clearing the long term and short term debt diligently after taann boss took over. The interest paid for the debt has also been reducing. The current ratio has been improving.
Sarawak Plantation saw its 9MFY21 core earnings doubling to RM62.4m, bolstered by stronger CPO prices despite weaker FFB production.
The results were slightly below our full-year expectations but it was in line with the consensus expectation, making up 69% and 78%, respectively. Nevertheless, we believe there will be a catch-up in the final quarter as management expects to record higher average CPO prices. No dividend was declared for the quarter.
Maintain Outperform call with an unchanged TP of RM3.88 based on 15x FY22 EPS.
Posted by ahbah > Feb 12, 2022 9:04 PM | Report Abuse
Sarawak Plantation saw its 9MFY21 core earnings doubling to RM62.4m, bolstered by stronger CPO prices despite weaker FFB production.
The results were slightly below our full-year expectations but it was in line with the consensus expectation, making up 69% and 78%, respectively. Nevertheless, we believe there will be a catch-up in the final quarter as management expects to record higher average CPO prices. No dividend was declared for the quarter.
Maintain Outperform call with an unchanged TP of RM3.88 based on 15x FY22 EPS.
Last quarter EPS was 15, assuming conservative EPS this quarter around 23 cents, rolling 4 quarter would be around 58 cents, which equates to a P/ E of 4.7. Also take note Q421 Cpo average 4.5 to 5k, I would assume that the EPS would be higher, if we have better margin, hopefully fertilizer price is not so high.
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Posted by i3gambler > 2021-11-22 11:16 | Report Abuse
I think esg issue is not so applicable to small companies, as local investor like us would not care, we care for the PE and DY only.
Those big foreign funds who care for esg will not invest in small companies anyway.