We reaffirm our positive view on SPLB with earnings estimated to grow at a robust CAGR of 47% over the next 3 financial years, supported by organic growth and its transformation plan.
We believe the stock is currently undervalued compared to other plantation companies within our universe. SPLB’s current low PER implies that the market has not fully accorded the tremendous earnings growth to be generated by the company.
The stock’s current valuation implies a PE of 8.5x its 12-months forward PE, below the sector’s average of 21.9x and its 3-years average forward PER of 22.8x. In addition, SPLB now trades near -1SD below 3-yrs mean with gearing of only 4%.
From Permafrost to Precipitation, Calvin Tan Research (At what stage is Glove, Steel/Aluminium & Palm Oil Stocks currently?
The Eight Stages of A Hot Air Balloon Stock
NOTE: THIS ALSO APPLY TO CYCLICALS LIKE GLOVES, STEEL/ALUMINIUM & PALM OIL
Stage No. 1. PermaFrost
Snow that is frozen for 2 or more years are called permafrost
perma - as in perma-nent
frost - be freezed over
This is the stage of a really dead stock that no research house will bother. Not a single soul is interested. The exception must be the only one in ten thousand who dare to buy any.
Stage No. 2. Thawing
Frozen Solid Ice starts to thaw or soften a little
A very slight passing glance by some value investors or deep value hunters. Only the very brave who SEE VALUE Will dare to buy some.
Stage No. 3 ICE Now Turning to Cold Water.
Some brave souls dare to venture in. Of course it's cold. Every where people pour scorn and cold water on the stock. Very few pay any attention. Remarks are usually negative. From Remisiers, fund managers, one and all. Same conclusion - the stock is not in their investment radar. So most reject it..
Stage 4. Cold Water no longer cold. It is now at room temperature.
Ha! there is a little attention paid by value investor. For the rest it is neither cold nor hot. So lukewarm response. No longer negative like before. But not positive either. A few hopeful investor starts to accumulate.
Stage 5 Water starts to boil
Ha! the heat or fire cause the water to stir a little now. There is warm and movement.
Company reports a good quarter. Or some great contract awarded - real or assumed. Some by merger news. Some favourable factors due to ringgit crash and strong US Dollar translating into higher profits. Or cheap oil benefiting rubber glove, logistic stock like transport or airline. There is now a stir in the stock.
Newspapers, analysts, experts, punters and all are paying attention now. More people talk about it in internet forum and even the media reports it.
Buyers are coming in and there is a great stir at last. Things are now coming alive. Prices moving upward. Many are making monies.
Stage 6. Boiling Water Turning Very Hot in the kettle. The water now churning in violent waves in the pot or kettle with steaming hot movements.
At long last the stock is very hot. Post after post by i3 forum member. All are universally drawn and sucked in. Like insects flying into bornfire at night there is a red hot wild attraction. As more people telling how they made killings in the stock market even more and more people are drawn into the red hot hot stock.
Those who made money early are now piling more and more monies into the red hot stock. Some even go into margin account to buy more.
Prices leap up to the cheers of all and sundry. Everyone is so happy. Happy in a sure winner. Emotion is now flying high. Any opposing view is slammed down in a frenzy. Reason is now overtaken by exuberance.
Stage No. 7. Hot Steam Rises Up The Sky As Hot Air To Form Cloud
All are now in cloud nine. Naysayers are condemned and proven wrong. The sky is the limit for the price. Can now fly to the moon or mars. More monies piled in. More suckers drawn in by greed.
This is the happiest time for all. But throwing all caution to the wind this is also now the most dangerous time to hold or buy more.
In Bursa every day the hot stock is traded in top 10 volumes
In internet forum this is the stock conversation revolves around day and night. Media reports it and tell why it should go even higher. Experts suddenly appear to tell you this time is different. The sky is the limit. Or the sky is not limit. It should fly to outer space.
By looking at the CPO production for the past 6 years, it is obviously the decreasing trend was formed in 2020. The downtrend remains for first quarter 2021 with a reduction of 2% on the back of production quantity 14.55 million ton.
CPO production (Indonesia & Malaysia)
2020 - 70.8 million ton (-1.3%) 2019 - 71.7 million ton (+7.1%) 2018 - 66.9 million ton (+7.0%) 2017 - 62.5 million ton (+13.1%) 2016 - 55.3 million ton (+7.6%) 2015 - 51.4 million ton (+4.6%
TAAn and Swkplnt will be benefited more from the commodity ride since the companies don't have the policy to hedge their sales or the palm oil is sold at spot prices. Furthermore, they don't have any plantation landbank in Indonesia.
Swkpltn 1q make 8.5 sen pay 5 sen dividend Share price $2.42. Simepltn 1 q make 8.2 sen , pay 0 dividend. Share price $4.45. Clearly swkplant is a better buy .
QR is not really good after excluding gain in biological assets due to lowest FFB volume in 1st Qtr 2021 but production has started showing an increasing trend in Apr 2021.
SwkPlnt's FFB production has been increasing double digit for the past 2 years after acquiring by TAAN through focusing into enhancement and clearing encumbered areas left by the previous management.
FFB production volume: Year 2020 - 341,065 MT ( + 22% ) Year 2019 - 280,649 MT (+ 14% ) Year 2018 - 245,852 MT (+ 5% ) Year 2017 - 234,109 MT
Calvin Tan is Pump and Dump mastermind. Wrote so many article on how palm oil company will make crazy profit... today a few palm oil company qr out liao, how? got super profit or not? lao sai got lah... Calvin Tan dont even understand the palm oil industry, probably never even eat palm oil but only buy olive oil.
In today's StarBiz,. the headline article on plantations M&A is very interesting. In there , there is valuation of plantation brownfield estate by the industry expert Mr Chandran . Mr Chandran has the credentials to speak about this subject. On the other hand,. those IB analysts who only work from computer desktop in a cosy office tell you half baked story.
And since Cost of CPO production ranges from a low of Rm1,465(Thplant) to a high of Rm1800 per ton ALL PALM OIL COMPANIES Are now making more than 100% Profits
This is not a One Off but SUSTAINED PROFITS MONTH AFTER MONTH TILL END 2021 & GOING INTO YEARS 2022/2023 & Etc Etc...
This confirmed A New Trend in Strong Real & Incremental Earnings for All Palm Oil Companies notwithstanding the market still overlook its potential
When I bought SWKPLNT last year, the price ratio of SWKPLNT / TAANN was around 75%.
When the ratio went up to more than 85% recently, and with the news that the timber segment of TAANN is going to be good, I sold all my SWKPLNT and bought TAANN.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Johnzhang
3,098 posts
Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-05-03 21:57 | Report Abuse
It is boom earning for swkplant in 2021 ' higher production at historic high price.