Total Planted Estate = 35,076 Ha Share Qty = 279,032,200 Share Price = RM2.130 Market Cap. = RM594,338,586 Total non-current liabilities = RM174,307,000 Total current liabilities = RM131,141,000 Non-controlling interests = RM10,470,000 Total current assets = RM153,188,000 Total Milling Capacity = 120 mT/hour Total Milling Assets = RM30,000,000 (Assume 250,000 per mT/hour, it is close to the item "Property, plant and equipment = RM282,225,000" in the Balance Sheet. For comparison, CB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT HOLDING BERHAD (CBIP) built a new 45 mT/hour Mill in Kalimantan at a cost of around RM1 million per mT/hour)
Enterprise Value (EV) for Planted Estate = 594,338,586 + 174,307,000 + 131,141,000 + 10,470,000 - 153,188,000 - 30,000,000 = RM727,068,586
EV / Planted Estate = RM20,728 / Ha
For comparison, on 20th October 2020, FGV HOLDINGS BERHAD (FGV) issue an official statement and mention in it that "Replanting expenses for the 15,000 hectares were in the range of RM300 million per annum". Wow, FGV's replanting cost alone already RM20,000 / Ha, SWKPLNT's EV / Planted Estate is only RM20,728 / Ha.
Now, look from the point of FFB Production, Latest 12 months FFB Production = 338.502 mT EV / Annual FFB = RM2,148 / mT
Another comparison on Estate EV / Ha. Kim Loong announced on 19th Feb 2020, that they were buying Planted Estate in Sandakan at a price of RM80,000 per Ha. Wow, a price of almost 4 times of SWKPLNT's EV / Ha of RM20,728.
Will the market crash if budget 2021 cannot be passed this coming Thursday (26/10/2020)? These are the 4 possible scenarios:
1. Parliament will be dissolved and a snap election will be called 2. A state of Emergency in the whole country will be declared by YDPA 3. Muhyiddin will resign and YDPA will appoint an interim PM 4. YDPA will appoint a new PM who has majority MPs support. A new budget 2021 also will be tabled by the new appointed PM.
Will the market go down? Will it crash? Take profit now or wait?
I read the report by Public Bank analyst just now, it said SWKPLNT management target for 18% increment on FFB production for 2021. I guess the company would pay 5 cents dividend for every quarters.
It is very easy to estimate SWKPLNT profit, because the reporting by the company is very detailed.
The management has targeted FFB production growth of 18% to 415k mt for FY21.
With 415000 mT over 35076 Ha, it is only 11.8 mT / Ha, it is still below the norm of 15 mT / Ha in Sarawak. For comparison, it is about 15 mT / Ha for JTIASA, TAANN and SOP now.
SWKPLNT production was low before year 2018, TAANN bought 30.5% equity and joined in the management, bring along their experience from TAANN, FFB production improving very much since then.
With 415,000 mT in 2021 and CPO at RM2500, SWKPLNT should be able to earn RM0.26 per share.
I guess that was why the management wanted to pay another 5 cents dividend for Q3, I guess from now onwards they would pay 5 cents for every quarter or total 20 cents a year.
The balance sheet of Q3 is so good, Net borrowings (Loan / borrowings minus Cash and cash equivalent) is only 18.4 million, very much lower than previous quarters / years. In fact the Finance Income is higher than Finance costs by 160K for Q3.
There is no need to keep much cash in the company, TAANN would get return of investment by receiving dividend from SWKPLNT.
Meanwhile, management has set an aggressive FFB production growth target of 30% YoY to 364k mt this year (vs our full-year target of 346k mt) on the back of yield improvement from the enhancement area transferred to harvestable area. For Jan-July, it jumped 31% YoY to 188,208mt and we expect to see a stronger growth in the subsequent months. Management expects lower production lower in the coming months on the back of higher production yield. It expects full-year cost of production to average at RM1,650/mt. Manuring activities have slowed down in 2Q but it picked up since 3Q. Given the recent strong CPO price performance, management has locked in forward sales of 4,000mt for Aug delivery at RM2,760/mt. It also has an outstanding forward sales of 1,000mt/mth at RM2,360/mt. On the encumbered area, it is currently finalizing the recovery of 400ha in the central region. Meanwhile, it also declared 586ha new enhancement area after being transferred from the encumbered area, bringing the total enhancement area to 2,992ha as of end-June 2020. During the quarter, 425ha was replanted. Harvestable area totaled 19,219ha while immature area stood at 4,553ha. ---Publicinvest 19/8/2020
Look for item "Segment cost of sales" = 26,357,000, page 15 of Q3 report. Then sum up 3 months FFB production = 103,307mT for Q3, from Monthly Announcement,
Make x = 103,307, and y = 26,357,000, Do the same for all quarters starting from Jan-Mar 2018.
So you will have total 11 points, make a xy chart.
Then apply/draw a trend line y=mx+c,
You will get m=RM158.7, and c=RM9,970,400.
You can use this y=mx+c to estimate the future profit from the estate operation.
Of course this will not be accurate, but at least better than nothing.
The growth in production, following the transformation in 2018, is a great achievement This company keep growing until today, hope able to turn into net cash company soon
The total planted hectarage is 35,076 hectares (ha), representing 77% of the total land bank of 45,668 ha. Any idea what is the planning for unplant area?
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
rlch
4,142 posts
Posted by rlch > 2020-10-12 10:54 | Report Abuse
TP RM 2.89. Buy more.