Posted by OTB > 2024-06-07 20:46 | Report Abuse

Dear kkwong13,
Q2 2024, Rev=147M, PAT=5.35M
Q3 2024, Rev=189M, PAT=36.26M
Q4 2024, Rev=252M, PAT=82.88M
Q1 2025, Rev=315M, PAT=129.50M
Total, Rev=452M, PAT=253.99M
EPS = 0.119

I think you make a few mistakes, please verify my calculation.
I need to see PAT=36.26M in Q3 2024, then your method of projection is correct.
Presently, I really cannot verify your projection.

Thank you.

Posted by Lightofheaven > 2024-06-07 21:18 | Report Abuse

hi fortune bro
i break my promise for not see JCY until monday.

Today come bcoz JCY up again

Posted by EatSleepTrade77 > 2024-06-07 21:34 | Report Abuse

JCY, NOTION, DUFU all are flying. Still can chase? 😁

Posted by investorbat > 2024-06-07 22:05 | Report Abuse

Q3 2024,Rev 189mil,PAT=36.26mil?Almost 20% net margin?Dreaming?JCY never got more than 15% net margin for the past 10 years,suddenly this year so special can fly ah?Even the latest Q after minus 3mil forex gain is around 2% net margin only.

Posted by investorbat > 2024-06-07 22:10 | Report Abuse

Q4 2024 net margin more than 30%,Q1 2025 net margin more than 40%,JCY selling NVDIA chips?

Posted by FortuneBlooming > 2024-06-07 22:31 | Report Abuse

EatSleepTrade77:
"JCY, NOTION, DUFU all are flying. Still can chase? 😁"

😄😀

hi😁🤗, welcome to jcy room, dude😎

well, how about let's just put it this way, thursday or wednesday morning last week you might have got some at day low 46.5, IIRC

then started moving up, and did not slow down at all even the friday after that

well, there is still plenty time for you, I think🤔

but you gotta think fast and move fast, because every day you delay might mean you losing more potential gain

unless you still wanna be just pondering and thinking and appraising until it has reached 89, or 1.49 or 1.99😘💕🤗

Posted by Greenbull88 > 2024-06-08 00:29 | Report Abuse

Target Price RM2?

Posted by wilxom > 2024-06-08 00:36 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/06/07/bytedance-plans-rm10bil-investment-in-ai-to-make-malaysia-regional-hub

Posted by kkwong13 > 2024-06-08 00:50 | Report Abuse

Hi OTB,

Thanks for the re-verification. After go through my calculation, notice I was mistakenly using the wrong Q3'2024 revenue RM147mil as baseline, by suppose to use past Q1'2024 Rev=RM126mil to compare]

In summary:
Q2 2024, Rev=147M, PAT=5.35M [EPS 0.25sen]
Q3 2024, Rev=189M, PAT=36.26M [EPS 1.69sen]
Q4 2024, Rev=252M, PAT=82.88M [EPS 3.51sen]
Q1 2025, Rev=315M, PAT=129.50M [EPS 5.26sen]
Total 4 rolling quarters, Rev=903M, PAT=253.99M

EPS = 0.1071
------------------------------------------------------------------
To explain further, here is my calculation assumption, based on JCY's (Q2'2024 Rev=RM147mil, PAT=RM 5.35mil, revenue increase of 16% QoQ (+RM21mil)).

As reported in JCY's quarter prospect, the quarter revenue increase is mainly due to a increase of 3% QoQ total HDD storage in unit shipped and 22% QoQ larger total storage capacity to 262Exabytes shipped. This show JCY is producing larger HDD storage capacity units, shipped for its end customers with better product revenue margin, even with minimum increase of 3% QoQ quantity shipped.

[Note: AI cloud & data center end-customer prefer larger HDD,SDD capacity storage unit due to better cost effective, faster, high durability + smaller size per rack storage space + better product margin/unit ship for JCY as well; a win-win for both JCY & end-customers side].

If JYC's end customers continue request for larger total storage capacity quantity build, let say increase from 3% to 10% sales order (by gradual), then its revenue increase by 3x fold multiply by +RM21mil = +RM63mil.
Sum up, total Rev= RM189mil for Q3'2024

After deduct fix operation cost RM 140mil, it become PBT=RM49mil,
after tax, PAT = RM 36.3mil (EPS =1.69sen)

Q3 2024 :
NOSI=2.140 Billion, EPS = 1.69 Sen
PAT = 2140*0.0169= RM36.26 mil
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

With limited information gather from JCY's financial quarter report + self-study research on related HDD, SDD storage memory macro news from Western Digital & Seagate toward AI datacenter data, there is no affirmative data to proof or baseline with. All calculation & assumption purely based on available data on-hand, might not be accurate.

If has other suggestion or opinions, please do share with me. That's will be highly appreciate.

Thank you.

Posted by FortuneBlooming > 2024-06-08 02:39 | Report Abuse

great👍😍 stuff, kkwong13 dude😎, well done✅

we all owe you loads

keep up the good work💯, bro

Posted by FortuneBlooming > 2024-06-08 03:12 | Report Abuse

JLL Malaysia anticipates more data centre developments across Malaysia due to rising demand
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/714408

Posted by FortuneBlooming > 2024-06-08 04:04 | Report Abuse

calvintaneng:
"iris = risky"

ki ki ki😅

aah, but then if we go by VincentTang's inclination, maybe🤔🧐 iris = I rich

Posted by makeba > 2024-06-08 06:13 | Report Abuse

oooeeehhh..
thanks kkwong13, good sharing and thought
to the moon JCY 1.07 - 1.6

Posted by Zachzach > 2024-06-08 08:39 | Report Abuse

go for rm1 next week !

i think sns will need to catch jcy soon ;)

Posted by Gentingbig > 2024-06-08 09:53 | Report Abuse

KKwong, an awesome analysis piece of work indeed. thank you so much for sharing for which due to this positive direction i load a mini bus full of JCY. anyway JCY never fail me from day one as i have been trading few round and still make some money. now i intend to invest and stay longer. my heartfelt appreciation to you wong.

Posted by Superlimit77 > 2024-06-08 12:48 | Report Abuse

Weiiii.... jcy lama lagi nak pi 1.00 rasanya ...kenergy pi dulu ....wkakakakakakkaa

Posted by OTB > 2024-06-08 13:21 | Report Abuse

Dear kkwong13,
I take this forum as a discussion only, there is no right or wrong in any assumption made.

Quote !!
In 2010, JCY International made its debut on the Malaysian stock market with an annual turnover of more than RM1.7 billion and a net profit of RM200 million. Its listing valuation exceeded RM3 billion, making it the largest technology listing in Southeast Asia at the time.
Unquote !!
----------------
Based on your calculation, Rev=903 million, PAT=254 million.
I believe your projection is may be too high.

Using 2010 figures, Rev=1.700 billion, PAT=200 million.
Basing on this formula, the projected Rev= 903 million, PAT=106 million.
EPS=0.0495 or 4.95 sen.

Question to ponder
Is the price of HDD in 2010 higher than the present price in 2024 ?
I do not know.

I do not know the correct answer, the above is my 2 cents comment only.
Thank you.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-06-08 13:24 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2024-05-23-story-h-161463089-JCY_5161_FANTASTIC_TURNAROUND_RESULTS_CONFIRMED_WHAT_DUFU_NOTION_REPORT


Jcy

units shipped increased by only 3%

but at higher capacity value of 22% increased

3% small increase = but amplified by gain of 22%

that means Higher HDD prices

Seagate stated HDD price will rise by 5% to 10% due to shortage

and will increase more and more and more

just like In 2022 Gloves sudden demand caused premium asking prices by Supermax

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-06-08 13:25 | Report Abuse

correction

not 2022 but 2020

glove asking prices amplified

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-06-08 13:30 | Report Abuse

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/michael-dell-ai-to-drive-data-center-demand-up-100-fold-over-next-10-years/


year 2020
covid 19 amplified glove demand

so 2024/5/6

AI demand will amplify Hdd prices 🚀🚀🚀

Glove got low barrier to entry
can set up New glove factory in 6 months

HDD/SSD very high barrier to entry

it takes 15 to 20 years to set up HDD factory

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-06-08 13:36 | Report Abuse

https://youtu.be/JRHdnkUjcZg?si=DrK9r267FP7c1DXf


Sophia the Ai computer



just one Sophia will need support of 200,000 CPU of Data Stored knowledge from which she gets info at the speed of light by optic fiber

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 13:41 | Report Abuse

Bro OTB
Do take note JCY ipo early 2010 is rm1.60
Main customer of JCY is Seagate and Western Digital
In 2010 Seagate stock price usd 15.00 now usd 96.00
Whereas Western Digital 2010 stock price usd 30.00 now usd75.00
At that time there nothing to boast about HDD/SDD
Today is different chapter
Why
AI DC mania/ boom and it’s happening around the world and demand is enormous high unimaginable
The best part is happening in our homeland especially JB
NViDIA world leading AI DC is here in Jb so do intel n google and many more latest one is Bytedance nad Hwa Wei too

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-06-08 13:45 | Report Abuse

https://youtu.be/PyrDh6RQdYY?si=sAWY-vEzyQ798qp7


Elon Musk said

50% of jobs will be taken over by AI robots

all their knowledge pre programmed and available in Data Center

That is the reason why demand for Data storage will explode up

Posted by FortuneBlooming > 2024-06-08 13:45 | Report Abuse

Superlimit77:
"Weiiii.... jcy lama lagi nak pi 1.00 rasanya ...kenergy pi dulu ....wkakakakakakkaa"

x kisah so much which particular stock hits rm1🥇 first lor

as long as all or many currently sub-rm1 stocks just keep moving up leh

then everybody also happy💖 lor

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 13:46 | Report Abuse

JCY is the only pure manufacturer of HDD/SDD in Malaysia
And command 25% supply of global market
You can google it to reconfirm what I said

Posted by FortuneBlooming > 2024-06-08 13:51 | Report Abuse

chunah:
"Today is different chapter
Why
AI DC mania/ boom and it’s happening around the world and demand is enormous high unimaginable
The best part is happening in our homeland especially JB"

Sedenak Tech Park, Biggest DATA Centre in Malaysia - June 2024 - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApC9qiAT5Ew

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-06-08 13:53 | Report Abuse

https://youtu.be/xvNvj7ku5pY?si=sO8I6pzvbusgaM-v


As Ai gets more like humans more stored Data will be needed

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 14:59 | Report Abuse

The Edge Malaysia
https://theedgemalaysia.com › article
JCY looking at growth in enterprise hard drives
It produces about 25% of the world's HDD base plates and commands 8% to 28% of the global market,

Posted by klentong > 2024-06-08 16:50 | Report Abuse

setiap orang untung sikit cukup la...mau blow water (klentong) sampai bila?...haha

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 17:51 | Report Abuse

FD the safest with guarantee return
Mengapa megamuk di sini
Podahlah

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 17:52 | Report Abuse

Patut lah nama pun kelentong

Posted by klentong > 2024-06-08 18:12 | Report Abuse

apa u mau susah ...saya mau klentong sini saya pun suka la.....kalo orang pandai mau invest tak payah klentong sampai langit la...

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 18:30 | Report Abuse

Nobody going to stop you from kentot sanasini

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 18:31 | Report Abuse

Oh klentong

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 18:33 | Report Abuse

Sudah Lah kelentong
Kelentong lah cukup cukup sampai puas puas ok
Keep going and doing
Mulut kau suka hati you cakap ok

Posted by MrFox > 2024-06-08 19:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Greenbull88 > 2024-06-08 20:27 | Report Abuse

With Mr OTB power, next week rocket to RM0.90

Posted by ChloeTai > 2024-06-08 20:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by FortuneBlooming > 2 days ago | Report Abuse
The frequent mistake made by many during glove🥊 bull🐂 was just thinking, thinking, thinking, namely endless non-stop over-analytical overthinking, from beginning all the way to the end of bull♉ run.
But without having been accompanied by a certain healthy level of early stage trusting in their own simple-logic driven gut instinct.

Posted by OTB > 23 hours ago | Report Abuse
I need to see PAT=36.26M in Q3 2024 first.
Q2 2024, Rev=147M, PAT=5.35M [EPS 0.25sen]
Q3 2024, Rev=189M, PAT=36.26M [EPS 1.69sen]
Q4 2024, Rev=252M, PAT=82.88M [EPS 3.51sen]
Q1 2025, Rev=315M, PAT=129.50M [EPS 5.26sen]
Total 4 rolling quarters, Rev=903M, PAT=253.99M
EPS = 0.1071
I agreed that there are big demands for HDD, I accept the Rev=903 million (90% higher than FY 2023), but not PAT=254 million which is higher than Rev=1.700 billion, PAT=200 million in 2010.
==================================

Now need to think or not? Next Monday (10.06.2024) can fly or not? I looked back into the glove bullrun. It was only from May 2020 to August 2020.

Posted by izoklse > 2024-06-08 20:38 | Report Abuse

Zafrul: ByteDance planning RM10b investment to make Malaysia a regional AI hub

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/714621

Posted by izoklse > 2024-06-08 20:42 | Report Abuse

AI Investment pour into Malaysia. Need more development of data center. Need more HDD and SSD.

Posted by OTB > 2024-06-08 20:46 | Report Abuse

Dear chunah,
I spent a few days to study the FA of JCY, I just cannot be convinced that Rev=903 million, PAT=254 million.
I talk with facts and figures, I check all angles before I write it here.

FY 2022, Rev=835 million, PAT= -91 million loss.
FY 2023, Rev=475 million, PAT= -90 million loss.

I agreed that there are big demands for HDD, I accept the Rev=903 million (90% higher than FY 2023), but not PAT=254 million which is higher than Rev=1.700 billion, PAT=200 million in 2010.

Please note that JCY suffered a loss of 91 million and 90 million in FY 2022 and FY 2023 respectively.

I hope I am wrong.
It is a discussion session, I have no intention to pour water on the fire.
I just want to learn from kkwong13, the logic of his article.

I am really interested in this HDD story, I will monitor this stock carefully.
I will invest some money on this stock based on TA because the technical chart looks fantastic to me.
I will buy big if the Q3 2024 result is very good even the share price is higher than the present share price.
The above is my 2 cents comment only.
Thank you.

Posted by Greenbull88 > 2024-06-08 20:52 | Report Abuse

Yes Mr OTB, let's ride together in JCY for this HDD bull run and make money together

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 20:54 | Report Abuse

Yes we must consider all angle before we go in big way even price is very much higher
Hopefully Supermax 2.0 in making
Tq OTB for your advice and awareness

Posted by MrFox > 2024-06-08 21:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2024-06-08 21:09 | Report Abuse

Buy on weakness is the best strategy.
How low will the share price drops ?
I do not know.
Average it down if you have a chance.
Decide yourself.
Good luck.
Thank you.

Posted by MrFox > 2024-06-08 21:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 21:13 | Report Abuse

Since so many top AI companies coming into Malaysia shore I believe and very confident JCY as a pure HDD/SDD producer and can consider monopolize this segment will benefit the most and advantages

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 21:20 | Report Abuse

20 years ago is computer boom
2024 + 10-20 years will be Ai DC boom and mania
Technology is evolving very fast

Posted by OTB > 2024-06-08 21:21 | Report Abuse

A trader will not make a lot of money, an investor buys and holds share for a bit longer term will win big.
I have > 30 years of experience as a remisier and also as an investor, I have many clients who are good investors made millions from KLSE.
I never see any of my client who is a trader made million from KLSE.
Decide yourself.
Good luck.
Thank you.

Posted by chunah > 2024-06-08 22:56 | Report Abuse

Hold 6-12 moths should be appropriate medium term