Posted by alntm > 2012-05-30 23:17 | Report Abuse

support coincide with dividend payment dates out..

Posted by nasik goreng > 2012-05-31 01:32 | Report Abuse

i been wondering what would be fair value for this counter?
based on the 6 month results, its had made about 50% above its historical best annual profit. meaning if jcy literally take a break tutup kedai & go holiday(like some of our friends here) for the remain 6months, its still goin to hand in 50% more than its previous best regardless how their fare on the coming 6 months, unless of cause its suffer any losses which is pretty unlikely. so with 6 more months on the line, its should at least double its previous best in annual profit i guess. So what the worth of jcy? 1.10/1.30/1.50/1.70/1.90/...

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-31 06:18 | Report Abuse

Good to see that someone is sharing a little bit of FA as well. I also did some simple analysis myself. Correct me if I am wrong.

Lets assume 3rd quarter(ending June) comes out the same as 2nd quarter i.e. EPS 7.9sen. This will give 3rd and preceeding 3 quarters a total earning of 25.11 sen.

Based on the above assumption, JCY@ 1.43 is trading at PE of 5.69, which is below the PE of 6 some analysis has mentioned.

In another word:
@PE of 6, JCY would be trading @ 1.51
@PE of 8, JCY would be trading @ 2.01

Let assume the last quarter earnings, having lost its order back to its competitors, fall back to previous year last quarter earning of 1.29, this would still give a total full year EPS of 25.11sen.

Hence based on the above assumption, I believe its target price would be somewhere between 1.51 and 2.01 depending which PE is more acceptable by the market.

However, if we only take into consideration 1st two qtr earnings and ignore the remaining 2, then total earnings for the full year would be 15.92.

@1.43 JCY is trading @PE of 8.98

If market overall believe that JCY should be trading:
@PE of 6, we will see JCY trading around 0.96
@PE of 8, we will see JCY trading around 1.28

Therefore, I believe, by observing its price trend in up and coming weeks or months, ones can tell generally how the overall market value JCY.

Posted by nasik goreng > 2012-05-31 09:12 | Report Abuse

rookie： thx for detail analysis provided.
My conservative view with flood effect fading, 3+4th qtr combine should at least match one of its previous qtr result. Meaning 25.11 full yr or 1.51 @ pe 6 based on your calculation at least. So still hv room to goreng haha...

Posted by dRsam @P.Lee > 2012-05-31 09:32 | Report Abuse

good write up & analysis Rookie

JCY unlikely to achieve its full potential of > $2 due to the warrants issuers whom likely to "pressed down" the prices when near coversion date

only the major shareholders and / or "syndi-player" can out-do the merchant bankers...

good luck

Posted by dRsam @P.Lee > 2012-05-31 09:33 | Report Abuse

JCY to break the 1.50 very soon

pray n hope it can sustain

Posted by alntm > 2012-05-31 09:36 | Report Abuse

lots of mixed signals this morn...sellers q above 1.45 mostly 10k above suddenly all dissapoeared.. and then rocket fuel up! siao...

Posted by dRsam @P.Lee > 2012-05-31 09:40 | Report Abuse

watch n learn how "syndi-player" goreng

normal method of putting big buyers/ sellers n withdraw etc

just be careful not to get burnt

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-31 10:09 | Report Abuse

P.Lee I will take your advice and stay sideline for now. Will wait for price to come down.

Posted by dRsam @P.Lee > 2012-05-31 11:40 | Report Abuse

Rookie,

my advice :
1. enter market with your eyes open wide-wide
2. develop own strategy (either base on FA/TA/gut feelings)(average upward not downward)(cut losses at a certain point(don't b sentimental abt any stock)(buy on rumours sell on facts) etc
3. must be able to afford the losses
4. stock market is worst than casino

nothing is certain in this stock market; paper gain is NOT profit

Posted by Seaangel > 2012-05-31 12:34 | Report Abuse

^^ good advice...
Noted with thanks~

Posted by shanting > 2012-05-31 13:58 | Report Abuse

I heard JCY is negotaiting to buy a company in Malaysia to push up market share, any insight?

Posted by taxi > 2012-05-31 14:09 | Report Abuse

rookie： thx for analysis.

Posted by TokanCorner > 2012-05-31 15:43 | Report Abuse

1.48-1.50 current resistance ... @ http://bit.ly/K1pPu8

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-31 16:00 | Report Abuse

JCY has no respect for horizontal suppport or resistance at this juncture. Support & resistance @ EMA or trendlines are more meaningful. Just my personal observation.

Posted by nubhan > 2012-05-31 16:19 | Report Abuse

Keep It Simple, Sayang = KISS

JCY trading range keep bouncing up and down in downtrend channel from 1.65 since 3rd May.

Posted by nubhan > 2012-05-31 16:20 | Report Abuse

in channel trending, using a trendline will be better instead of horizontal support/restistance.

Posted by nubhan > 2012-05-31 16:22 | Report Abuse

Using channel trending, we just have to wait for breakout. (Hope not a false breakout. :P)

Posted by TokanCorner > 2012-05-31 22:43 | Report Abuse

Anobody make cash with JCY Today ? Still have 1 or 2 more trial to overtake 1.49 - 1.50 area ... sell at resistance and buy at support @ http://bit.ly/KajIUe

Posted by taxi > 2012-06-01 08:06 | Report Abuse

still can go ?

Posted by usry > 2012-06-01 10:01 | Report Abuse

wait for clear picture b4 go in.. wait for 2-3 weeks. give time for JCY to drop first..hehe

Posted by diablo88 > 2012-06-01 10:16 | Report Abuse

the flood gate is open...

Posted by seaangel > 2012-06-01 10:17 | Report Abuse

flood gate ?

Posted by diablo88 > 2012-06-01 10:21 | Report Abuse

is not a good day to go in...

Posted by TokanCorner > 2012-06-01 10:27 | Report Abuse

Wait at support or trade on breakout ^_^ my 2 cent @ http://bit.ly/KajIUe

Posted by diablo88 > 2012-06-01 11:11 | Report Abuse

the more CW they issued, the faster the cowboy will died :)
the faster the price will move up

Posted by meljohn > 2012-06-01 11:18 | Report Abuse

Hope it can hit more than 160 sothat cowboy can go in

Posted by pureland > 2012-06-01 11:25 | Report Abuse

Diablo88, wondering whether the issuers are so careless and not to cover their backside. And why Lamken wanted to openly mentioned the plan and action of the ally, purely ego? Puzzles & puzzles

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-06-01 11:30 | Report Abuse

Today, the ally attack back and cowboys fail to press price down. The price only stop at RM 1.43, it seems cowboys run out of bullets, they only can block the price at RM 1.49 (11410 ) and RM 1.50 (13559). Good sign ! JCY's share price will fly very soon, cowboys will go to hell . Ha Ha Ha !!!

Posted by pureland > 2012-06-01 11:32 | Report Abuse

Jj, coming back with strong faith?

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-06-01 11:36 | Report Abuse

Where is Lamken ? Missing ?

Posted by diablo88 > 2012-06-01 11:38 | Report Abuse

too early to tell...don't underestimate the cow boy

Posted by TokanCorner > 2012-06-01 11:39 | Report Abuse

1.43 pullback stop at 38.2 % ... if today price intact... just be ready for a breakout from 1.50 anytime today or next monday @ http://bit.ly/KajIUe

Posted by pureland > 2012-06-01 11:40 | Report Abuse

If price going up, people praise him as God. If it goes opposite, so many blaims thrown to him. How would one feel if a person is genuine

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-06-01 11:41 | Report Abuse

Bought 200 lots at RM 1.34 3 days ago, never give up on this counter. Still believe it can fly one day.

Posted by ymj1016 > 2012-06-01 11:47 | Report Abuse

Pure: it's normal in forums. Because the forumers hold no responsibility in whatever they spit out. But to the person who only wished to share info, they will get the heartache all the time when the blames come around.

All: So, let us be fair to the everyone, please trade at your own risk and do your own research before putting your own hard-earned money in to it. If you choose to believe someone, it's not that person asked you to believe him..it's you yourself that CHOSE to believe it. Anything happens whether you earn or loss, please keep it all to yourself. Nobody other than yourself be responsible for it. Just voicing my personal opinion only and did not meant to offend anyone. Happy trading everyone and cheers!

Posted by diablo88 > 2012-06-01 11:47 | Report Abuse

I love this counter and the 'musical chair' game the ally and the cowboy are playing.

Posted by pureland > 2012-06-01 11:50 | Report Abuse

ymj, concur with your view. Be mature and act as an adult. Cheers!

Posted by usry > 2012-06-01 11:50 | Report Abuse

Jjtrader:Good luck..u are lucky..i'm miss the boat this time how ever will wait for JCY go down..(every go up will go down)..

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-06-01 12:01 | Report Abuse

Bro Usry, I bought back this time is based purely on the TA, it form a doji 4 days ago, that is the reversal signal and at the time stoc is at the oversold area. So got confidence to going.

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-06-01 12:34 | Report Abuse

^_^

Posted by TokanCorner > 2012-06-01 12:36 | Report Abuse

On my view if 1.49-1.50 breakout my target is at 1.65 ^_^ cheers @ http://bit.ly/KajIUe

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-06-01 13:28 | Report Abuse

Sold all the 200 lots at RM 1.46. For 2 reasons .
1. Today is T + 3, so dun want to pick up
2. Leaving to Beijing this evening for 7 days holiday trip, so cannt monitor the counter.
Good luck guys and happy trading ! Cheer !!!

Posted by dRsam @P.Lee > 2012-06-01 13:55 | Report Abuse

ymj1016 to All: So, let us be fair to the everyone, please trade at your own risk and do your own research before putting your own hard-earned money in to it. If you choose to believe someone, it's not that person asked you to believe him..it's you yourself that CHOSE to believe it. Anything happens whether you earn or loss, please keep it all to yourself. Nobody other than yourself be responsible for it. Just voicing my personal opinion only and did not meant to offend anyone. Happy trading everyone and cheers!

agreed 99.99% with ymj1016 - all depend on YOU as the investor/trader

refer to my earlier posting y'day or two days ago on investment / trading in general and jcy in particulars....

as strongly believe jcy 3rd qtr result is as good as the 1st two qtrs, expect jcy to maintain price and move upward till announcement time BUT world market is the worrying part (hope Greece pro-bail-out parties win the election...if not si-keow-keow greece market and world markets)..and the issuers of jcy call warrants - likely to suppress the prices when near expiry dates...

be aware n be careful

good luck

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-06-01 14:24 | Report Abuse

Bro Tokan corner, be careful and not over confidence, today cowboys might press down the price at last minute of trading and draw a shooting star pattern on chart ( If the price close below RM 1.44). then the chart pattern is a perfect down trend channel + shooting star whichnis a very bearish signal.

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-06-01 14:30 | Report Abuse

Bro Rookiemy, what does this ^ _ ^ face mean ?

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-06-01 14:34 | Report Abuse

Jjtrader: just glad that optimism return.

Posted by taxi > 2012-06-01 14:50 | Report Abuse

u all sell ady ?

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-06-01 14:53 | Report Abuse

Happy for you. I missed my last entry @1.38 which could earn me at least 5k. So for now just have to wait for it to drop again.

Posted by usry > 2012-06-01 15:51 | Report Abuse

rookiemy: i also miss boat this time..just wait for good time for enter.may be 1-2 week for me to pause & see the weather. hope JCY will to RM1.30 level or below.. hehehe..