Posted by apple168 > 2022-02-09 09:27 | Report Abuse

Looking at this, TP 4.00 perhaps reachable…

Posted by Ryan83 > 2022-02-09 09:29 | Report Abuse

After oversold Harta share price will rebound as profits still double pre pandemic profits and share price now is pre pandemic price

Posted by apple168 > 2022-02-09 09:31 | Report Abuse

Another bad new to Harta is that the Cukai Makmur… slamming the EPS even lower…

Posted by MiaoMiao7 > 2022-02-09 09:36 | Report Abuse

The best time to buy glove is when WHO and China says it is now an endemic, the end of the pandemic. Till then, best to stay out of glove.

Posted by MiaoMiao7 > 2022-02-09 09:37 | Report Abuse

Best time to sell is when the announce the vaccine, and best time to go in is when nobody wants to buy glove due to the high 60PE in 2019

Posted by Anxious > 2022-02-09 09:55 | Report Abuse

Posted by Ryan83 > Feb 9, 2022 9:29 AM

"After oversold Harta share price will rebound as profits still double pre pandemic profits and share price now is pre pandemic price"


This and it cash levels mean it has to be worth more than pre pandamic price once sentiments clear.

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-02-09 10:05 | Report Abuse

@Ryan83 If Harta can drop to RM2-3 other glove counters like Top Glove will drop to RM1 and Supermax 50 sen only... Hartalega price now is already pre pandemic price
08/02/2022 5:07 PM

______________
Yes, this will happen after more qr annoucement from gloves companies !
Bear in mind that the rules of game already changed after a new player name China joined
The world is flooded with cheapest gloves , western countries will buy the cheapest with quality !

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-09 10:13 | Report Abuse

Remember when China join the palm oil game , Malaysia will bankrupt ...... western countries will buy the cheapest palm oil from China v high quality.....

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-09 10:15 | Report Abuse

I heard China going to join and plant Oil palm at Beijing , they have cheapest manpower and they will ask their people keep siram water to the palm oil .... When China join , palm oil company sure will gone cases...

Posted by masterus > 2022-02-09 10:32 | Report Abuse

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/02/09/reopening-of-borders-will-revive-medical-tourism-say-private-hospitals/

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-02-09 10:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ahbah > 2022-02-09 11:06 | Report Abuse

What shall we do if Titanic is sinking ?

I no know !!!

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-02-09 11:20 | Report Abuse

Sell all now while it s still not too late n swift to other stock that will bring u multiple folds gains !

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-02-09 11:20 | Report Abuse

Harta will drop to rm 2.xx - 3.xx !

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-09 11:26 | Report Abuse

Buy Dnex confirm loss

Posted by newguy0801 > 2022-02-09 11:27 | Report Abuse

Those that bought DNEX at 0.77 begged to differ.

Posted by apple168 > 2022-02-09 11:36 | Report Abuse

Few of my fund managers are dumping Harta to keep their portfolios in clean profit conditions… Good Luck guys…

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-09 11:39 | Report Abuse

Few of my glove boss are collecting Harta and keep their portfolion in lowest risk condition.....goood luck guys...

Posted by jolynce > 2022-02-09 11:46 | Report Abuse

Comparing current revenue and profit to supernormal times, of course it will go down eventually. How can a business keep making supernormal profits forever? We should be comparing it to pre-pandemic times!

Posted by apple168 > Feb 9, 2022 9:25 AM | Report Abuse

Both Revenue (business) and profit also slammed down by at least 50%!

Posted by ahbah > 2022-02-09 11:50 | Report Abuse

Thanks for your response.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-09 12:29 | Report Abuse

These monkeys now promote other counters now. Counters like Dnex (before that Genetec) people like to goreng. Not to say can't make money. If you time your tradings right, you can make money from any counters, even Harta. Unfortunately most people don't get the timing right, then they lose money when sentiment suddenly reverses, and they then flock to the next counters. These are the same people that chases glove stocks in 2020 and kena bakar when sentiments suddenly turned for the worst.

Most people buying this sort of counters are not chasing after short term gain. They are here to pick companies with strong fundamentals for cheap and can afford to hold for several years. You can see those large buying transactions, most likely large institutions happily lapping it up.

Posted by Anxious > 2022-02-09 12:36 | Report Abuse

So tired of all the negativity surrounding gloves esp Harta.

I still believe this Company is in a better position than it was pre pandemic and therefore it should be worth more than it is today, so for now I am not selling.

If I have spare funds may considering buying more if it goes below RM5.00.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-09 12:38 | Report Abuse

A word of caution. Even if ASP is expected to stabilised by second quarter of 2022 (or earlier, who knows), expect the next two reports of declining profits followed by stabilised profit in the third quarter's report. Common sense, you need one additional quarterly report to confirm that prices stabilised. So for the next THREE quarters expect volatile share price. So trade carefully.

Posted by Snowpiercer > 2022-02-09 13:51 | Report Abuse

At sustainable PAT 800m, PE15 , Looking at RM3.5 to go in

Posted by gghaha > 2022-02-09 14:03 | Report Abuse

erm...sell or buy better now...

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-02-09 14:09 | Report Abuse

ASPs are expected to continue trending lower and management expects the ASP for 4QFY22 to be at circa US$28 level. Margins should also continue to narrow, given the inflationary pressures (i.e. higher energy and labour costs), and could potentially dip below that of pre-Covid levels,” according to HLIB analyst Sophie Chua Siu Li.

JF Apex Securities Research also concurred with the view, adding that the glove sector is experiencing a paradigm shift given oversupply conditions stemming from Chinese glove makers.

“We understand that Chinese manufacturers’ ASP is about 7% lower than Harta’s ASP on average. Chinese manufacturers have received rising orders from overseas markets, benefiting from cheaper glove prices offerings. Additionally, the group is also experiencing shortage of foreign workers due to closure of international borders. Furthermore, raw material costs are still sticky thus hampering the group’s operating margin moving forward,

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-09 14:39 | Report Abuse

@gghaha Depends on your goal. I could be wrong, but based on current trajectory, prices may not improve by much and may continue to somewhat on ex-dividend date. If you plan to hold on for short-term gain, there are better counters out there. So sell and move on.

However if you plan on holding it for much longer (treat it like a fixed deposit) take the opportunity to buy during the dip. I am looking forward to buy on ex-dividend date because price are expected to be low (maybe). In the long run, I don't need to worry about price fluctuation as long as there is healthy demand for gloves and the company's fundamentals are intact.

Your call. I could be very wrong about how prices changes in the next two weeks, so take anonymous advise with the grain of salt.

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2022-02-09 14:40 | Report Abuse

@bang_miskin completely agree with the trading remark on glove counters. I personally choose not to trade. I don't need the money that I can get from selling, so I hold believing better times will come when people get out of this roller coaster sentiment.

To others that could be reading on those "promoters" comments, dont buy/sell stocks without doing your own research.

The price fluctuated between RM5 - RM6 - RM7 several times in just the past 6 months alone, if you are so good at trading, you should've been able to make money by buying low and selling high.

I'm not confident in my ability to trade and predict prices, so I don't trade. I'm confident in the company's prospect 3-5 years down the road, and I don't need to cash out the money I've invested, so I hold.

I will only sell if my emergency funds suddenly became insufficient or if I stop believing in the company.

Invest maturely, everything else are noises.

Posted by looiting > 2022-02-09 14:54 | Report Abuse

Already issued warnings to short term traders who try to fast In Fast out. The shorties have all the information. In poker game, they know your cards. They also have the money to influence the price short term. They said in a poker game, if you can't figure out who is the water fish, then he's probably yourself

Posted by jolynce > 2022-02-09 14:57 | Report Abuse

@YourQuirkyWays29 I'm not an expert, but managed to make some coffee money selling on strength, buying on weakness, and repeating this. I did not sell on strength two days ago, thinking that price will move higher in the next few days in light of the latest wave of Covid surge in our region. What I failed to take into account is the release of QR! AIYO! No choice, just hold and wait for the next opportunity. Buy on weakness, sell on strength. That's the only way to trade.


The price fluctuated between RM5 - RM6 - RM7 several times in just the past 6 months alone, if you are so good at trading, you should've been able to make money by buying low and selling high.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-09 15:05 | Report Abuse

Also I don't understand why short-term investors wants to play in glove counters. Sentiments on gloves are still poor and there is no guarantee of a price surge anytime soon. Right now many other industries are recovering, from risky tech and commodities counters to slow and steady bank counters. Prices of many tech counters are high but may continue to rise...until Bursa kaki rotates to another counters. You can earn a lot more from those goreng counters, but if you time it wrong, you kena bakar lah, just like gloves in late 2020.

Posted by Anxious > 2022-02-09 15:26 | Report Abuse

Bang, its just the gambling culture in Bursa

Posted by observatory > 2022-02-09 15:41 | Report Abuse

3QFY22 result was disappointing. The ASP decline to about USD43-44 per 1k was expected. But the low utilization of 52% was not. It was almost 10 percentage point lower than 2Q2021, which was itself a low point due to EMCO closure.

This was partly due to buyers continuous wait & see strategy, and was also partly due to shipping disruption. Either way it is not good. At current capacity of about 43 billion, Harta could have churned out about 11 billion pieces a quarter, but only sold 5.5 billion (it might have produced a bit more but sales is recognized on shipment due to FOB incoterm)

According to analyst reports, management expects ASP to decline to US$27-28 per 1k by 4QFY22. Margin could even dip below pre-Covid level in the near term.

Next quarter should also see Harta reporting a loss for the first time. Assuming profits were to fall back to about RM100 million (like pre-Covid), the one time prosperity tax of about RM350m to 400m will set it back to a loss of about RM250m to 300m, or just about wiping out the profits in Q3 and Q4.

But I don't think the Chinese competitors will fare any better. Blue Sail already lost money in Q32021. But Intco Medical could be a much stronger competitor and it has also expanded enormously. Let's keep an eye on its margin for Q42021.

All Chinese exporters now face a resumption of 7.5% extra duty for their exports into US. However the Chinese producers may be willing to take more pains. Besides, unlike Malaysia glove makers like Harta and Top Glove, where their dividend policies were to distribute 60% and 50% earnings (in fact TG gives out 70% during this period), Intco ploughed back their supernormal profits to expand capacities with latest technology. In that respect, Intco is much smarter than Top Glove, which after handing out 70% profit and another RM1.4 billion to buy back shares at high price, now tried the opposite wanting to issue new shares in HK at a fraction of previous share price!

In the long run, the super normal profit from the pandemic could be a curse to existing Malaysian players. While all big players made enormous profits and are now cash rich, all their major competitors are also cash rich. All could afford a long price war for a long time. So cash rich may not be a good thing. When valuing these stocks their cash holding should be discounted. Let's also hope there is a collective wisdom among all these industry players.

Posted by Mak_kiah > 2022-02-09 15:41 | Report Abuse

buy time for my grandchildren future fund.

Posted by JN88 > 2022-02-09 15:53 | Report Abuse

Mahsing going to bankrupt? How? Omg crazy.... Egg price and Chicken price increase now.... I suggest Harta start to go in farm and products eggs...

Posted by rl68 > 2022-02-09 16:04 | Report Abuse

hi,@observatory what is
FOB incoterm??

Posted by observatory > 2022-02-09 16:23 | Report Abuse

Under Free On Board (FOB), sales and profit are recognized when goods are loaded onto vessels.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fob.asp

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-09 16:45 | Report Abuse

thanks for sharing @observatory. I was surprised with the 52% utilisation rate. Wasn't the EMCO supposed to affect previous quarter? If I remember correctly it was around July 2021 when that happened. How does that affect 4th quarter result that occur months later?

Not sure if I understand this correctly, wasn't the one-time prosperity tax was supposed to be a tax on 2022 profit? Wouldn't we get a smaller profit instead of a RM250m to 300m?

Also was the lack of sales primarily due to shipping disruption, as in they can't get enough ships to put their goods? or they were not able to sell because the lack of clients?

Posted by Boston > 2022-02-09 17:03 | Report Abuse

Utilisation down meaning less demand.

Posted by JN88 > 2022-02-09 17:05 | Report Abuse

Increase capacity, volume remain same bring down utilisation... Can't summary less demand....

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-09 17:12 | Report Abuse

When the profit decreasing, shark will using each round/quarter to rss to press down....look at rss today RM 11 million

Posted by observatory > 2022-02-09 17:29 | Report Abuse

JN88,
By late 2021, Harta had already commissioned all lines in Plant 6, and 4 out of 10 lines of Plant 7. The total capacity then was ~42 billion pieces per annum. Today it still has one more line at Plant 7 to be commissioned, implying a total capacity of about 43-44 billion.

Based on data I've compiled from analyst reports at every quarter, the utilization and shipment quantity for the past 5 quarters are listed below:
3QFY21, 95%, 10 billion
4QFY21, 64%, 6.8 billion
1QFY22, 96%, 10.4 billion
2QFY22, 63%, 6.6 billion
3QFY22, 52%, 5.5 billion.

Posted by observatory > 2022-02-09 17:30 | Report Abuse

@bang_miskin, perhaps my previous comment wasn't clear. This is what I mean.

For 2Q2022 (Jul to Sep 2022), utilization was about 63%. The low utilization could be attributed to 2 weeks closure due to EMCO, and subsequent production with mandated reduced manpower.

For 3Q2022 (Oct to Dec 2022), utilization was about 52%. The low utilization could be attributed to
1. Shipping disruption; and
2. Customers taking wait and see approach, waiting for price to fall further before placing more orders for replenishment.

The reports I read did not mention which is the greater cause. But I guess lack of urgency among customers is the bigger reason. The market is awash with capacity now. So investors should not get excited when there is another wave of Covid, especially the small rally on Monday on Malaysia (!) Omicron concern.

Prosperity tax is based on financial year, not calendar year. The 33% tax will be imposed on Harta's earning from Apr 2021 to Mar 2022, including the super profitable 1QFY22 (Apr-Jun 2021).

The RM350m to RM400m expected tax for next quarter includes the prosperity tax not included during the previous 9 months.

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-02-09 17:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by observatory > 2022-02-09 17:42 | Report Abuse

@kinuxian, please read my comment just directly above yours. Harta reported PAT RM3.43billion from FY22 Q1 to Q3.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-09 17:43 | Report Abuse

Thanks for clearing it up @observatory.

Posted by jolynce > 2022-02-09 18:07 | Report Abuse

@observatory: Thank you for your analysis. This was also stated in the QR:
"The construction for the upcoming expansion under NGC 1.5, is currently underway and the Group targets to commission the first line by October 2022. NGC 1.5 will house 4 additional production plants which will contribute 19 billion pieces to the annual installed capacity. With the completion of NGC 1.5, the Group’s annual installed capacity will increase to 63 billion pieces per annum."
From 42 billion to 63 billion, this close to 45% increase in capacity should mitigate the drop in ASP and improve it's revenue and profits. Demand must be very strong for them to target this increase in capacity.

Posted by observatory > Feb 9, 2022 5:29 PM | Report Abuse

JN88,
By late 2021, Harta had already commissioned all lines in Plant 6, and 4 out of 10 lines of Plant 7. The total capacity then was ~42 billion pieces per annum. Today it still has one more line at Plant 7 to be commissioned, implying a total capacity of about 43-44 billion.

Posted by jolynce > 2022-02-09 18:08 | Report Abuse

It's such a pity that the prosperity tax will affect the next QR. Bloody blood sucking govt!

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-09 19:04 | Report Abuse

The timing of the tax is impeccable, right when they make the most profit. Coincidence? They say it affects all profitable companies, sure buddy, sure....

Can't wait for the next GE to get them out.

Posted by TillyLovers > 2022-02-09 19:22 | Report Abuse

hihi, will Harta drop drastically tmr, say, RM4.00?