Posted by jolynce > 2022-02-12 23:42 | Report Abuse

Observatory, thank you for taking the time to share your knowledge. I split the bet between Harta, Top Glove and Kossan (in that order). Harta makes up the most of my investment in Bursa at 23%. Over invested yes, but it used to be close to 50% before last qtr ex-dividend. That was nerve-wrecking LOL!

Posted by observatory > Feb 12, 2022 8:13 PM | Report Abuse

@tonypang01, Top Glove pre-pandemic earnings was above RM400m per year. The company has since expanded its capacity by nearly half. Let's assume upon normalization, sales can keep up and margin remains like pre-Covid. So earning increases proportionally, say reaching RM700m. With current market cap is RM17.7b, implied forward PE is 25 times.

But Top Glove has almost zero net cash now (after deducting perpetual sukuk). It may manage to raise cash via HK listing but at the expense of equity dilution. The plus is being the largest producer may confer advantages.

With this naïve calculation, the forward PE of Harta at 34X > Top Glove 25X > Supermax & Kossan at about 20X.

Net cash consideration: Harta ~15% market cap, Top Glove zero, Kossan 40%, Supermax 100% (but watch out whether Supermax may squander its cash in US, not to mention we have no idea when sanctions will be lifted)

Based on the relative track records of these firms, the market seems to have priced them in the right sequence. I have no idea which one offers a better tradeoff.

Maybe split the bet? Maybe wait until there is more clarity on future normalization path?

Posted by Oldinvestor99111 > 2022-02-13 06:05 | Report Abuse

Mark my words, the price will definitely bounce on Monday morning as the covid cases has just increased further, not too late to buy

Posted by looiting > 2022-02-13 13:42 | Report Abuse

Still waiting for below RM5

Posted by tonypang01 > 2022-02-13 16:03 | Report Abuse

@Observatory....I am a bit confuse on prosperity tax...based on all IB report Harta need to pay for FY22 (apr 21 to march 22) meaning 400m estimated, meaning prosperity tax not tax according CY22, it based FY22 of listed company?

Posted by Hafid > 2022-02-13 16:10 | Report Abuse

5040-148 dividend

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-13 16:19 | Report Abuse

why 5040 minus dividend? how about epf push to 5.5 then only minus dividend?? 5500-148??

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-13 16:27 | Report Abuse

Coats® Colloidal Oatmeal Coated Nitrile -Coated with FDA recognised skin protectant. Clinically proven to help protect and moisturise your skin from dry and irritated skin from prolonged glove use and hand wash.


ANYONE KNOW HOW MUCH THE ASP FORM HARTALEGA FOR THIS PRODUCT?


The answer is USD400-500 per cartoon (ASP)


Only half tank water dint study the products of company they invest ..... This glove is special for eczema hand people that need to work for long hour in health care system. Eczema is chronic diases that you need to keep apply hand cream ....however very this may trouble to health care worker..Hence this product is the only option......

In Malaysia, no much people wearing because you boss will not buy for you......your boss will ask you to resign if you have eczema hand and cant wearing normal nitrile or latex glove for long period

Posted by Oldinvestor99111 > 2022-02-13 20:48 | Report Abuse

Watch for the spike up tomorrow morning

Posted by vcpmaster123 > 2022-02-14 09:07 | Report Abuse

Harta can you drop more... I want to start buying thanks

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-14 11:42 |

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Posted by IronShirt > 2022-02-14 12:12 | Report Abuse

All stock will end the same way....When Iris is very Hot, promotion sounds like Iris is producing
Alien Technology ( just making IC for Pasport Book ) Volume Hit unheard of Vol...one Billion.....
Now only very Cold wind whistling daily

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-14 13:28 | Report Abuse

With falling ASP, we expect profit and price to fall for the next two quarters. So there is no need to rush and buy.

Will higher cases cause price to rise? In Malaysia where most people are fully vaccinated, it does not necessarily translate to higher hospitalisation or surge in glove demand. That may not be true for countries that cannot buy enough vaccine to supply their population, but then again those countries may not be Harta's main client.

In the meantime, waiting for QR from Kossan and Supermax. Supermax's result should be interesting since they kena ban by U.S., one of their main clients.

Posted by TillyLovers > 2022-02-14 14:03 | Report Abuse

will Harta break RM5.50 before dividend been distributed？

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-14 14:14 | Report Abuse

Why?
Because it is not a blog page, it is my own portfolio page for people to read and learn how I buy stocks and compare what I do with the results over a 5-10 years.

It is not made for you and raider and others to start a kopitiam and talk nonsense.

what is wrong with you kids these days? dont know how to make money so spend it on pasar malam talk instead?

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Mikecyc > Feb 14, 2022 11:42 AM | Report Abuse

Haha why ah Philip is closed his blog on this ??? i am just posted today ...

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Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-14 14:46 | Report Abuse

@TillyLovers unlikely since it is only 8 days away...unless there are important events such as:
1. Kossan QR is much better than expected (similar or above previous QR)
2. Unforeseen events that cripple Chinese manufacturing (Andy Hall takes on Chinese glove manufacturers)
3. WHO announces a new variant of concern (much worse than Delta)

>>>TillyLovers will Harta break RM5.50 before dividend been distributed？

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-14 14:54 |

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Posted by IvanC > 2022-02-14 16:48 | Report Abuse

brought 5.02 best timing to buy in

Posted by observatory > 2022-02-14 17:39 | Report Abuse

Intco Medical has diverted some capital by participating in two limited partnerships. Maybe it has also figured out that it's eaiser to make money in the financial market than in the glove market :)

http://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2022-02-07/1212317976.PDF

http://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2022-02-11/1212350487.PDF

Current capacity remains at 45 billion nitrile gloves + 30 billion PVC gloves per annum. If no further capacity comes online, and if next quarterly results show it also struggles to fully utilize its capacity, then a turning point may have been reached.

Posted by rl68 > 2022-02-14 17:47 | Report Abuse

@observatory. Thanks for the info..

Posted by Anxious > 2022-02-14 18:13 | Report Abuse

Looks like there may be a light at the end of this tunnel. For now happy that it stayed above RM5.00 today.

Finally see some buying from EPF too but as usual that cannot be relied upon for much as they buy and sell, like traders.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-14 18:18 | Report Abuse

@observatory. Thanks for the info. While we may be reaching a turning point faster than expected, I am not sure how I feel about it. If the Chinese are wary of committing additional capital into long-term expansion, does it imply that future growth in the demand for gloves is quite limited?

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-15 08:09 | Report Abuse

EPF buy is bad news.... they will push future down

Posted by winsenlim68 > 2022-02-15 08:45 | Report Abuse

MARGMA expects demand for gloves in 2022 and 2023 to be 10%-15% higher than pre-pandemic level

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/margma-expects-demand-gloves-2022-and-2023-be-1015-higher-prepandemic-level

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-02-15 08:59 | Report Abuse

Moderna, Pfizer stocks fall as Covid omicron wave subsides in U.S.
So, do u think all these gloves stocks can escape ??

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-15 09:14 | Report Abuse

@winsenlim68, yes demand for gloves in 2022 and 2023 is 10 to 15 percent higher, but prices may fall if glove supply increase by 20 to 30 percent.
Just hope that glove demand can keep up with capacity expansion, or at the very least Harta can keep cost down.

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-15 09:59 | Report Abuse

NatsukoMishima: If Moderna and Pfizer cant escape do you think Human can escape?

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-02-15 13:00 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/950125

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Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-15 14:09 | Report Abuse

EPF waiting Supermx result and Kossan result to push down Supermx...