Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-22 22:07 | Report Abuse

Supermax
Market Cap: 2,850 Million
NOSH: 2,614 Million
NAPS: RM 1.88
Cash and bank balance RM 3,392 Million.
I bought Supermax at RM 1.15, now become cheaper. And tomorrow will be more cheaper. Market Cap below NAPS and even below cash and bank balance.

Posted by observatory > 2022-02-22 22:59 | Report Abuse

Extracted from Supermax quarterly report published today:

"Many of the large buyers seen at the height of the pandemic, such as the governments and large hospital chains are full or near full in terms of their PPE stocks after a period of aggressive sourcing and buying."

Posted by observatory > 2022-02-22 23:31 | Report Abuse

Supermax net cash is RM3,150m, or 120 sen per share. RM1,390m has been earmarked to build 5 new factories in Malaysia.

If the two-phase US expansion costing USD300m and USD250m are added, the cash will be gone. But this may or may not take place, and is a long time away.

Market cap of RM2,853m is 85% of Current Asset - Total Liabilities (=RM3,346m).

Ben Graham's net net method calls for investment in a basket of stocks sold at 2/3 of this value. The threshold will be reached should Supermax drops below 85 sen.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-23 07:14 | Report Abuse

Insas Current Asset - Total Liabilities= RM 1280 million.
Market Cap: 593 Million
NOSH: 693 Million
Of the current asset Cash and bank balance RM 948.6 million
And of the non current assets, one the associate company Inari
Insas holding 535,998,575 (14.47%) Inari
Inari Q2 NP: RM 108 million: DPS: 2.8 cents.
So Insas will received RM 15 million dividend from Inari per this quarter.

So should you invest in Insas?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-23 07:27 | Report Abuse

Important to consider if the Management is consistently paying reasonable cash dividend from the cash hoarding . If they don't, minorities will not get to enjoy it and the share will remain undervalued for a long time.
( DY yiled of 4-5% is deemed reasonable to me ).

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-23 08:40 | Report Abuse

Insas:
29-Nov-2021 30-Dec-2021 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.0250 Dividend Detail
07-Dec-2020 21-Dec-2020 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.0200 Dividend Detail
06-Dec-2019 20-Dec-2019 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.0200 Dividend Detail

Posted by Windy1974 > 2022-02-23 08:57 | Report Abuse

Harta and Kossan in my watchlist but not Supermax or Top Gloves. I am still looking for signs to buy. That doesn't mean i will be able to pick the bottom. 1 sign i am looking for is stabilisation of ASP. I have dealt with China companies so i know how aggressive they can be. Losing money is considered part of their routine of acquiring market shares. Don't underestimate how long they could bleed.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-02-23 08:58 | Report Abuse

Lets have price war for years n c who die first

Posted by vcpmaster123 > 2022-02-23 09:11 | Report Abuse

4.5 on the way.. U guys are just silly....u think businessman are ready to lose money just to gain market share... Especially listed company like intco...how are they going to be accountable to their shareholders.... Windy 1974 is just brainless..

Posted by stingray_ea > 2022-02-23 09:22 | Report Abuse

======================

Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Nov 9, 2021 9:47 AM | Report Abuse

1.xx


Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Oct 4, 2021 3:05 PM | Report Abuse

5...4...3.... 2... 1



Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Nov 9, 2021 9:40 AM | Report Abuse

Next. Topglove target is 1.xx


Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Oct 6, 2021 11:19 AM | Report Abuse

70:30 break ==> 2.50


Stock: [HARTA]: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
Nov 2, 2021 5:58 PM | Report Abuse

harta price is the highest among glove all klcii counter but Harta score is not
the best in term of value investing for glove industry.


Stock: [HARTA]: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
Nov 2, 2021 5:39 PM | Report Abuse

In trading.... Drop 1 cent is still drop ... lost 1 cent is still lost .. bad news ...
good news.. not in radar ...


Stock: [HARTA]: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
Nov 2, 2021 5:37 PM | Report Abuse

refer BAT price hit rm 73.75 on 2014 supported by high dividend.

today BAT only trade at rm 15.12. long term investor still gain in term of
dividend but capital loss in waiting time.( rm 73.15 minus rm 15.15)


Stock: [HARTA]: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
Nov 2, 2021 5:25 PM | Report Abuse

@jolynce,

stingray_ea tell you how market work in operator world...

if you miss the chance to sell supermx on 22 Oct for price RM 2.27 ...
A good news release on Kossan 12 cent dividend at surface view of majority ikan bilis.


Your can only sell at 1.82 today closing price. 50 cent different ...
That will happen to Harta too.
Unless Harta is very special case ... Q ROE double or tripple up


Stock: [HARTA]: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
Nov 2, 2021 5:04 PM | Report Abuse

if supply increase || demand drop double. -->> demand drop triple ...worst scenario ...

and next Q net profit drop 300M-450M. Over price now.


Stock: [HARTA]: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
Nov 2, 2021 4:46 PM | Report Abuse

harta ??

Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD
Oct 22, 2021 10:22 AM | Report Abuse

best time for selling while good news is from kossan


Stock: [HARTA]: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
Nov 2, 2021 4:40 PM | Report Abuse

harta Q ROE (12.82%) and Kossan Q (13.51%) about the same..
expected harta price will sharp drop once value investor full load.

dividend 0.34 is used to reduce selling speed ... Target below rm 5

Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Nov 2, 2021 4:06 PM | Report Abuse

>>> fifo


Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Nov 2, 2021 4:04 PM | Report Abuse

-8 cent to touch 2.50....


Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Oct 6, 2021 11:19 AM | Report Abuse

70:30 break ==> 2.50



Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD
Oct 22, 2021 9:13 AM | Report Abuse

70:30 break 2


Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD
Oct 22, 2021 10:22 AM | Report Abuse

best time for selling while good news is from kossan

12 dividend .

what if next Q Kossan profit drop another 50% and 12 dividend ?
that will be too late for big fund


======================

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-23 09:23 | Report Abuse

Ok peace no war everyone operate at 50% capacity.

Posted by JovaneChua > 2022-02-23 09:29 | Report Abuse

good opportunity in Ucrest

Posted by Windy1974 > 2022-02-23 09:36 | Report Abuse

SSlee. at 50% capacity, everyone dies. Make up your decision haha

Posted by observatory > 2022-02-23 09:52 | Report Abuse

@sslee, fair point. Agree there is a risk of getting stuck in a value trap. That's why net-net method relies on a portfolio approach and deep discount to compensate for duds.

@Johnzhang also has a good point of using dividend history to examine management.

In Supermax case, the core business is in a secular growth industry. Pre-Covid it returned above 10% ROE for most of the years, and also paid yearly dividend albeit at a lower payout.

If share price were to go below 2/3 of net-net, or 85 sen for current quarter, to me the downside will be quite limited.

This is not to say it's better than the other three, which enjoy higher valuation for a reason. But worth keeping an eye on.

Posted by khatulistiwa1234 > 2022-02-23 09:53 | Report Abuse

Savage teeth return is episode .

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-23 10:01 | Report Abuse

If operate at 50% then demand will outpace supply hence ASP will increase and everyone make better profit and then increase capacity slowly.

"Many of the large buyers seen at the height of the pandemic, such as the governments and large hospital chains are full or near full in terms of their PPE stocks after a period of aggressive sourcing and buying."

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 10:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-02-23 10:03 | Report Abuse

50% Capacity =rm 250+ million...omg if 80 % capacity mean Rm 500 million +

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-23 10:03 | Report Abuse

Looks like prices has stabilised somewhat. Just like @looiting will be adding small batches from time to time. With recent gains in the banking and plantation sector, can use some of those gains to gradually top up Harta.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 10:03 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 10:09 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 10:25 |

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Posted by biscuitboy96 > 2022-02-23 10:31 | Report Abuse

harta is more worth to hold long term.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 10:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 10:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-23 10:49 | Report Abuse

Trying to promote insas in another channel is embarrasing. Those who know about insas will avoid it due to no future growth or a clear way of using money. Why spam in hartalega?


>>>>>


Sslee Insas:
29-Nov-2021 30-Dec-2021 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.0250 Dividend Detail
07-Dec-2020 21-Dec-2020 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.0200 Dividend Detail
06-Dec-2019 20-Dec-2019 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.0200 Dividend Detail
23/02/2022 8:40 AM

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 10:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-23 11:04 | Report Abuse

People are talking about idea on Ben Graham's net net method calls for investment in a basket of stocks sold at 2/3 of this value with:

Posted by observatory > Feb 22, 2022 11:31 PM | Report Abuse
Supermax net cash is RM3,150m, or 120 sen per share. RM1,390m has been earmarked to build 5 new factories in Malaysia.
If the two-phase US expansion costing USD300m and USD250m are added, the cash will be gone. But this may or may not take place, and is a long time away.
Market cap of RM2,853m is 85% of Current Asset - Total Liabilities (=RM3,346m).
Ben Graham's net net method calls for investment in a basket of stocks sold at 2/3 of this value. The threshold will be reached should Supermax drops below 85 sen.

And
Posted by Johnzhang > Feb 23, 2022 7:27 AM | Report Abuse
Important to consider if the Management is consistently paying reasonable cash dividend from the cash hoarding . If they don't, minorities will not get to enjoy it and the share will remain undervalued for a long time.
( DY yiled of 4-5% is deemed reasonable to me ).

Why some people like to turn the subject to personal attack?
Are they have nothing to contribute but personal attack?
Please grow up kid.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 11:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-23 11:27 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip6/2021-08-12-story-h1569709725-the_intrinsic_value_of_Hartalega.jsp
The intrinsic value of HARTALEGA
Author: Philip ( buy what you understand) | Publish date: Thu, 12 Aug 2021, 11:30 AM

Perhap someone need to explain:
The rest is as usual, 2 billion in earnings per quarter should last for another 1 or 2 years, bringing earnings to around 15 billion+. at a valuation of 24 billion as per the time I have jumped back in, and looking at the long long LONG term picture, i think hartalega is easily going to be a 10 billion USD company by 2025, and huge dividends paycheck to wait for while waiting. Very low risk company, at a suitably clear return of investment over the longer term of 5 years+. I am happy to be a shareholder of a glove company again, as it is definitely within my scoper of competence.

CynicalCyan The legendary guy who bought TOPGLOV & held for 10 years is back, investing in his circle of competence in glove companies.
The same guy who heaped praised on SERBA a few years ago, throwing Choivo Capital's caution to the wind.
Now, he suggests that HARTA's 2 BILLION EARNINGS PER QUARTER should last for another 1 or 2 years! Yet, his intrinsic value is only 10B USD or RM40billion or RM12.34 by 2025?
12/08/2021 9:28 PM

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 11:34 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 11:35 |

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Posted by looiting > 2022-02-23 11:40 | Report Abuse

Next batch RM4.40

Posted by looiting > 2022-02-23 11:46 | Report Abuse

@NatsukoMishima I think this issue has been discussed thoroughly by CEO during Hartalega AGM. It's true that China is going to steal some market share from Thailand, but Malaysia glove manufacturers are still very cost effective vs Chinese glovemakers. Let's talk with facts okay. Go and check the latest glove export numbers in US and you'll see what i mean.Do your own homework.I'm buying in via batches here for long term. My glove portfolio is still positive net dividend

Posted by ♛ Checkmate. > 2022-02-23 11:48 | Report Abuse

loss support, my harta, my hati.... my god

Posted by looiting > 2022-02-23 11:50 | Report Abuse

Imagine investing in a company which have ample cash for expansion, paying u dividend, and continue to grow WITHOUT RIGHT ISSUE and dilution.Investors need to ask themselves whether they can hold for long term.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 12:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-02-23 12:14 | Report Abuse

Posted by looiting > Feb 23, 2022 11:50 AM | Report Abuse

Imagine investing in a company which have ample cash for expansion, paying u dividend, and continue to grow WITHOUT RIGHT ISSUE and dilution.Investors need to ask themselves whether they can hold for long term.

Imagine investing in a company/ industry which will face fierce price war ,over capacity in coming years.....Investors need to ask themselves whether they can suffer the painful results for years

Posted by Windy1974 > 2022-02-23 12:33 | Report Abuse

SSlee. i was pulling your leg lah. At 50% of course everyone happy, it's called colluding and i doubt they can now with so many players.
While i have no knowledge in glove industry, i have run thru the positives and negatives and decide when the turnaround would be. Do correct me if my mental process is incorrect.
Positive: Consistent growth industry in term of volumes
The analysts are using the pre pandemic as a benchmark. I beg to differ.
1. Overhead now is higher than pre pandemic due to material cost higher and ESG compliance. Now i know why TG was so efficient prior to the labour fiasco haha
2. More competitions mean ASP will be squeezed. When ASP will stabilise? Since i am not in this industry i won't have the insider news. But i suspect glove industry woes would persist till we see some M&A activities. That's my mental process and i am not claiming to be an expert.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2022-02-23 13:05 | Report Abuse

Waiting for topglove's next month QR to access ASP decline on squeezing profit margin.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-23 13:10 | Report Abuse

@Windy1974, I am trying to irritate/provoke Philip at current Market Cap Kossan is better choice than Harta.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-23 14:02 | Report Abuse

Sslee, grow up. You have never been to harta plant or topglove plant and you obviously have no idea what sort of competitive advantage they have versus Kossan. As someone who only looks at earnings per share and market cap, you deserve everything you get.

You deserve insas. Please stop trying to get people to buy such a lousy company with no growth prospects and no idea how to use the good luck they received with inari except selling more of it to fund bad investments like sengenics and car rental and fashion houses.

Funny how someone who buys insas and tunepro seems to think they should have the right to tell others what to buy.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-23 14:11 | Report Abuse

@PHilip,
Mind telling what have went wrong with your beatiful projection 2 billion in earnings per quarter should last for another 1 or 2 years, bringing earnings to around 15 billion+. at a valuation of 24 billion as per the time I have jumped back in, and looking at the long long LONG term picture, i think hartalega is easily going to be a 10 billion USD company by 2025, and huge dividends paycheck to wait for while waiting. Very low risk company, at a suitably clear return of investment over the longer term of 5 years+. I am happy to be a shareholder of a glove company again, as it is definitely within my scoper of competence.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-23 14:35 | Report Abuse

Nothing is wrong, hartalega is 15% of my portfolio and I am buying more once I receive dividends. As you can see from my portfolio which I share clearly every action done, I am buying and holding and looking to collect more as time passes. I still believe that harta will be a 10 billion USD company moving forward, and I am happy to hold and buy more. Hartalega hasa very clear plan to growing earnings with more production coming online.

If you have bothered to read the qr reports you can answer a simple question on supply chain.

I may have been wrong in predicting a quarterly return, but guess what I have bought it at a cheap price which is at 2018 levels, with huge cash to fight new entrants to the industry.

But looks like I was still right to avoid insas. It is and has always been a value trap. And the fact that you seem to think that it is a wonderful company just because it has "assets" makes wonder as you use the same lens to value companies like kossan (4 billion net worth with billions of cash).

Mind telling me your projections for insas 5 years from now? Will it be worth more or the same?

Or will insas be forever a value trap?

Posted by JN88 > 2022-02-23 14:56 | Report Abuse

Kossan Boss Lim Kuam Sia is a Engineer... He can produce high quality of gloves but not able to produce gloves v high techology..... Harta cooperate v UK scientist produce high techology gloves such as antimicrobial gloves which selling in very high asp.... Other than this gloves anotger type of gloves is Oatmeal gloves special for Eczema.... This oatmeal gloves contribute 20% from total revenue

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-23 14:57 | Report Abuse

For Insas I can only give you the following for Intrinsic value.
Intrinsic value is the Present value of the investment of all the expected cash flow over the lifetime discounted at the appropriate discount rate.
I question the definition why equity part of asset or at least the current assets minus total liabilities should be added to this intrinsic value?

In this case the intrinsic value of INSAS is Liquid assets – total liabilities + (CF1/ (1+d)^1) + (CF2/(1+d)^2) + ----- +(CFn/(1+d)^n)

Where:
CF = Cash Flow in the Period
d = Discount rate
n = The period number
This Intrinsic value is actually a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Example of intrinsic value of INSAS is then the Sum of DCF expected cash flow from varies business streams.(Dividend received from associate companies and fair value assets, M&A, ICL, Car rental, properties rental and etc)
For INSAS assets rich case, it is my opinion that the liquid assets minus total liabilities should be added to this intrinsic value

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-23 15:02 | Report Abuse

Then why no one in bursa and in foreign institutions know about your intrinsic value definition of insas? After so many years still people are blind to insas? I think you should spend more time trying to understand your biggest position insas versus why I would rather buy loss making harta and serba and pchem than putting a single cent into insas.

Your intrinsic value is wrong because you fail to add in quality of management and their ability to burn cash into lousy businesses instead of investing in good growing companies.

The failure to recognize the poor usage of cash is why no one is willing to be a long term investor in insas.

Posted by JN88 > 2022-02-23 15:12 | Report Abuse

Insas my friend holding since IPO, only get dividend capital gain is minimum....

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-23 15:17 | Report Abuse

I have no problem with Insas or Insas CEO Dato' Wong.
In fact I am happily collecting Insas with profit I made from my other shares investment.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-23 15:17 |

Post removed.Why?