Mmmm, overall I'll say it's a slightly positive result, I was hoping an EPS of 1.8 cents personally.
However, besides just looking at the PAT, there is additional information that can be deduced to aid your investment outlook.
Good 1st Q total property sales of RM 211 million, if sustainable, that'll be RM 800 million of property sales in a year. Unbilled sales RM 852m is still very high, now transitioning to Alora and Amika which have not yet entered high progress billing stage. Aetas seputeh 50% booking (soft launch) seems to be still 'unbilled' yet as of now, depending on if APDL is approved by end of June, there's a potential of up 250m in unbilled sales just from Aetas Seputeh added in next quarter. Direct Operating and General Admin Expense have dropped quite significantly QoQ from 13% of revenue to 10% of revenue. Selling and marketing expenses drop from 4% to 3% of revenue Cash flow from Operations positive Still trading around 6.53 PER, vs other property stocks trading at PER of 8.11 (LBS), 16.76 (SIMEPROP), 22.8 (SPSETIA), 21.37 (IOIPG), 22.74 (ECOWORLD), 17.48 (MAHSING), 18.36 (GUOCO)
Bad Gross profit margin dropped from 34.6% to 31% income tax on profit increase to 32% (But should be one off) Revenue may only peak up again in 2nd to 3rd Q as Amika and Alora enters the billable progress stages
The Good points, unfortunately will still require patience to be realized, and this will expose the share to short term weakness potentially.
Let's see how the market (especially the funds) reacts then, will they buy on weakness and sustain the share price around 36 cents until next QR release.
Overall full year forecast for 2024 we can expect total EPS of 7-8 Sen per share which should propel the share price to 0.70-0.80 in comparison to LBS or other mid cap developers...Reiterate BUYYY!!!
Market a bit irrational, take Hua Yang for example, 4 quarter EPS 1.6 cents, revenue 191 million, net profit 6 million, but share price can be 42 cents as of now.
Maybe due to Avaland's previous times when a lot sold around 23 cents, so it's still a good exit point for those who still holding since then.
Will need a period of above 35 cents for a 2, 3 months to increase average shareholder entry price/allow those who hold the shares < 25 cents to exit fully before it can normalize back to market.
for now, till the release of the 2Q.. fundamentally week.. technically week.. + external and internal factors.. few red flag for me.. few major risk and red flags,. but still, undervalued by price evaluation..
so i will be sideway with my popcorn watching bull vs bear..
Big property counters with big land banks riding on DC wave. Ecoworld , YTL , IOIP, Sime or Mah Sing riding the DC wave. Small caps with limited land banks hard to play the DC wave
HLIB calling a buy on the big cap property counters. Sunway , IOIP or Sime darby that may or benefit from the relaxation MM2H program. Not the small cap counters.
Trending upP...Ayala Land will surely transform Avaland from a small cap developer to be one of the largest developers in Msia...Strong management team coupled with sheer determination to always be the best...I have full confident in their powerful management and leadership from the Philippines...This is easily a 1.00 stock in 2-3 years to come...Reiterate BUY!
KUALA LUMPUR (July 30): Avaland Bhd (KL:AVALAND) topped out Alira Subang Jaya, a serviced residence in Tropicana Metropark, Subang Jaya, which has achieved a 95% take-up rate, on Monday (July 29), according to a press statement on Tuesday.
Actually, the problem with Avaland is due to our own fellow Avaland investors themselves, as long as we have fellow investors willing to take quick few % profits, or worst cut loss, the share price will hard to appreciate. Don't say Mahsing etc in the property area, plenty of other shares in KLSE that doesn't make sense or justified with high PE, but people keep buy into them, and eventually get burned like the recent tech crash.
With the latest unbilled sales of 950m locked, 1H new property sales of about 470m, Avaland is on track to finish 2024 with ~900m new sales for the year, supporting consistent EPS of 1.5-1.7 per share, reducing finance charges, improving cash flow and net cash per share to eventually possible dividends 1 year+ later, but these are long term goals, and I really doubt most of the investors look at such horizon anymore.
Having said that, there are some positive indicators if you study the top 30 shareholders.
We start to have more big names, international funds buying in, one of the MCT founders Berry Goh have already reduced his shares YoY, and maybe disposed all already by now, another MCT founder Tong could be the only source of 'big sales' pressure only.
What could sustain the share price, and stage a long term rise would mostly depend on these 2 groups of large shareholders, if QoQ the financial performance is good, the funds may continue to increase their stake, buying out the retailers.
The fed rate cut may also contribute positively as well, as it will free up more funds from the US to be invested elsewhere, hopefully Malaysia can be the beneficiary of the inflow as well
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nemesis
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Posted by nemesis > 2024-05-20 15:08 | Report Abuse
0.40 has been breached...upside is comingg