I'm still here, if able to maintain 36-38 cents for this next 5 trading days + supported by good quarter result announcement, it will break 42 cents by end of the month
Nemesis, I won't be so optimistic about RM 1 yet at this moment, too far off, and it'll need EPS of 10-15 cents per annum to fundamentally support that share price.
I'll take it QoQ and see how it goes. If they keep meet my expectations, and there's no better shares to buy, I'll stay on.
But finally after so many years, it's getting the widespread attention it deserves with calls from RHB, AMINVEST that got published in major newspapers too.
IF this is supported by an outperform/better QoQ EPS announcement next week, then it'll be the most optimum scenario.
Most of their products launching are very innovative and selling like hot cakes...very strong management team from Philippines and Ayala Land is ambitious to propel Avaland higher...
Mmmm, overall I'll say it's a slightly positive result, I was hoping an EPS of 1.8 cents personally.
However, besides just looking at the PAT, there is additional information that can be deduced to aid your investment outlook.
Good 1st Q total property sales of RM 211 million, if sustainable, that'll be RM 800 million of property sales in a year. Unbilled sales RM 852m is still very high, now transitioning to Alora and Amika which have not yet entered high progress billing stage. Aetas seputeh 50% booking (soft launch) seems to be still 'unbilled' yet as of now, depending on if APDL is approved by end of June, there's a potential of up 250m in unbilled sales just from Aetas Seputeh added in next quarter. Direct Operating and General Admin Expense have dropped quite significantly QoQ from 13% of revenue to 10% of revenue. Selling and marketing expenses drop from 4% to 3% of revenue Cash flow from Operations positive Still trading around 6.53 PER, vs other property stocks trading at PER of 8.11 (LBS), 16.76 (SIMEPROP), 22.8 (SPSETIA), 21.37 (IOIPG), 22.74 (ECOWORLD), 17.48 (MAHSING), 18.36 (GUOCO)
Bad Gross profit margin dropped from 34.6% to 31% income tax on profit increase to 32% (But should be one off) Revenue may only peak up again in 2nd to 3rd Q as Amika and Alora enters the billable progress stages
The Good points, unfortunately will still require patience to be realized, and this will expose the share to short term weakness potentially.
Let's see how the market (especially the funds) reacts then, will they buy on weakness and sustain the share price around 36 cents until next QR release.
Overall full year forecast for 2024 we can expect total EPS of 7-8 Sen per share which should propel the share price to 0.70-0.80 in comparison to LBS or other mid cap developers...Reiterate BUYYY!!!
Market a bit irrational, take Hua Yang for example, 4 quarter EPS 1.6 cents, revenue 191 million, net profit 6 million, but share price can be 42 cents as of now.
Maybe due to Avaland's previous times when a lot sold around 23 cents, so it's still a good exit point for those who still holding since then.
Will need a period of above 35 cents for a 2, 3 months to increase average shareholder entry price/allow those who hold the shares < 25 cents to exit fully before it can normalize back to market.
for now, till the release of the 2Q.. fundamentally week.. technically week.. + external and internal factors.. few red flag for me.. few major risk and red flags,. but still, undervalued by price evaluation..
so i will be sideway with my popcorn watching bull vs bear..
Big property counters with big land banks riding on DC wave. Ecoworld , YTL , IOIP, Sime or Mah Sing riding the DC wave. Small caps with limited land banks hard to play the DC wave
HLIB calling a buy on the big cap property counters. Sunway , IOIP or Sime darby that may or benefit from the relaxation MM2H program. Not the small cap counters.
Trending upP...Ayala Land will surely transform Avaland from a small cap developer to be one of the largest developers in Msia...Strong management team coupled with sheer determination to always be the best...I have full confident in their powerful management and leadership from the Philippines...This is easily a 1.00 stock in 2-3 years to come...Reiterate BUY!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
nemesis
3,994 posts
Posted by nemesis > 2024-05-14 19:29 | Report Abuse
It has just begun...powerful rally to 0.40 soon...EPS is projected to rise up in coming qtrs fin results