Posted by Val-Elta > 2024-01-17 17:07 | Report Abuse

I'm more of a longer term investor, contrary to what I see happening now where everyone wants to buy at bottom, if few days don't increase, they panic and will cut loss or sell at no profit (but lose trading fees), I hope to promote a more long term mindset to other investors, try to avoid too many buy and sells, imagine each buy and sell transaction you have to pay like 0.x% to brokerage, stamp duty, sst etc...

Avoid taking profit early too, imagine you gain 5% but you may pay 0.8% out of it to all these fees, over time all of them adds up very fast.

Do your homework properly before buying a share, and if other ppl cut loss to push the share price down (for whatever reasons they have to sell at a loss) then their loss is your gain as you'll be comfortable to average down.

Posted by foreverchung > 2024-01-17 18:11 | Report Abuse

i copy and paste from aneka, and then here

lol aiya avaland folks, pls come together and hooot sifut roger back to danco, we danco folks need him to stay there dun wander around the forum

we need him watch danco for us so pls advise sifut to go back and focus only on danco, everytime he post long long one danco usually green

Posted by KenYang > 2024-01-18 18:21 | Report Abuse

@val It's a winner that I am holding onto and I am glad to have done just that. Thank you for your advice, will look out for each other when there is other announcement to be made by the company!

Posted by RAbbit494 > 2024-01-19 10:51 | Report Abuse

Mari mari cuba lagi tembusi 280
Semalam ada yang banyak beli 250 kot support hari ni mula naik

Good Luck

Posted by KenYang > 2024-01-19 11:11 | Report Abuse

@Rabbit494 Haha if I am rich I would definitely buy more.

Posted by RAbbit494 > 2024-01-19 16:07 | Report Abuse

Ha...slow slow push slow slow cekup
Sikit sikit jadi bukit boleh BO 280 300 mari
Ada angpow buat CNY 😎

Posted by wbuffet2 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

With imminent reduction of interest rate.....property counters are the best beneficiaries.

Buy before the interest rate goes down.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Have recent changes in the top 4th to 8th largest shareholders it seems.

On 16th Jan there're 8.7 million shares sold via direct business transactions at 26.5 cents.
Top 1st 3 shareholders is Ayalaland.
Only the top 4th to 8th largest shareholders have shares exceeding this amount, but less than 5% threshold.

On that day itself also, trade volume in the open market is also quite significant.
If the buyer is the same person, it could indicate potentially a fund/funds is taking position in Avaland. Maybe forming a strong support at 25-26 cents range.

Posted by willc48 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

not much movement since local chinesr acquired this filiipino company

Posted by Val-Elta > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Avaland will announce quarter result this week, things to lookout for.

1) Can revenue still increase quarter over quarter. I'll estimate have 60% chance that this may still be possible, maybe 10% q over q.

2) Avaland became net cash flow from operations positive in the previous quarter, I expect this to continue, and we start to see stronger balance sheet, with higher cash in hand and higher income from interest/ or lower debt / interest cost if the extra cash flow goes into pairing down debts.

3) % of sales of recent launches reporting, alora, amika, casa embun phase 2, especially those for alora will be an important figure as it'll indicate demand and how soon avaland can launch their next 4 phases in usj 25. 45% ++ is excellent figures.

4) EPS is expected to be around 1.25 cents.

Overall, this quarter result will fundamentally change the company and puts it into a strong footing of consistently earning 4cents++ EPS per year moving ahead.

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Buy as Avaland is expected to announce strong 4th QTR financial results...this is a new rising property giant in the making

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/02/1012673/avaland-expects-robust-growth

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

To my guesstimate, Avaland's total unbilled sales could hit 1.4 billion by end of this year due to its aggressive launching and marketing this year...With that kind of whopping unbilled sales, EPS could reach 6-7 Sen per share that can easily set Avaland at Share price range from 0.45-0.50 this year...Reiterate BUY!!!

Posted by Val-Elta > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

QR announced, 2.58 EPS THIS QUARTER ALONE!
Cumulative EPS this year 4.53 cents

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Tomolo is Skyrocket day for Avaland...testing 0.30 for the first time in 2024...Avaland is on steady growth path!!!

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Forget about UEM Builders, E&O, Ecoworld and OSK which have risen all time high...Let's focus on this new rising star that is still deeply undervalued, a wholly owned subsidiary of Ayala Land

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

0.33 is within reach soon....

Posted by Val-Elta > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

in share trading, i have a term 'fundament shift' for events that's so major, that it totally shifts and invalidates all prior technical support/resistance.

Even as an Avaland believer, long term investor, I was only cautiously optimistic for a consistent 1.25 cent eps x 4 x 10 for a 50 cent max TP.

But if you look at two of these items QoQ
1) Unbilled sales in Q3 vs Q4 867m vs 863m. Yes the unbilled sales dropped a bit, BUT the billed portion for this quarter is 261 million !!!
867m - 261m, if 0 new sales in the quarter = 606m unbilled sales.
863m - 606m = 257m NEW unbilled sales portion for this quarter ALONE. If you add in the fact that some of this quarter sales is actually billable within the same quarter, their quarterly sales maybe 300m.

2) Net cash from operations. Last year -126m vs this year 49m positive cash flow.
A net change in operation cashflow of 175m year over year.

I hope existing shareholders can keep holding on til the next quarter and see where it goes, don't take profit too soon.

Even at 33 cents, if u divide it by the yearly EPS, of lets say 6 cents la, its like PER 5x only!


It's hard to evaluate how much TP to give it when your past comparisons/or past support/resistance values have been based around quarterly EPS of 1 cents

Posted by Val-Elta > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

You can compare Avaland EPS vs EPS of IOIPG, ECOWORLD, UEM Sunrise, UOADev
These are TOP TOP branded property developers share price over RM1, over RM1.50, over RM2.00, their Q EPS some is actually lower than Avaland's now!

Let's say their next Q EPS drops by 30% la, it's still 1.8cents EPS, again a quarterly EPS that's comparable with top 10 listed property developers in Malaysia.

Trading at shareprice of 30, 40, 50 cents vs RM1, RM 1.80, RM 2.20!

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

During its heydays, MCT now known as Avaland, used to trade above 1.00 before slumping to all time low of 0.10 last year...Now that it is fully restructured as a wholly owned subsidiary of Ayala Land, I m confident Avaland will return back to its former glory above 1.00

Posted by Val-Elta > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Let's not talk about RM 1+ so soon la, Nemesis.
A lot still depend on the profile of our fellow existing shareholders.

Avaland have already done what they can do in terms of improving and turning the company around at this moment.

Now how far/how fast the share price for Avaland can rise depends also largely on our shareholders holding power.

All along, Avaland shareholders do not have good holding power... Maybe we have a high % of traders/speculators active.

But over time, hopefully the new shareholders are able to value the company accordingly and have patience to see it out.

If Avaland can maintain such profit record for 3 more quarters, it's possible to talk about some dividends in the 4th or 5th upcoming quarter.
That will be the next major fundamental shift event that will happen.

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Now what we hope for to propel the share price further, is the declaration of Dividend in the future...They must have a dividend policy to reward Shareholders now that it is profitable

Posted by BursaKakis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Avaland plans to launch projects with RM1.4bil in GDV
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/02/21/avaland-plans-to-launch-projects-with-rm14bil-in-gdv

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Volume spiking upP I believe more analysts will make coverage of this stock soon with revised upward target price...we are looking at 1.3-1.5 billion total unbilled sales by year end...Reiterate BUY!

Posted by xuxu > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Rocket will launch soooon !

Posted by Val-Elta > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

sometimes don't feel like commenting too much also. you can see some traders who proudly announced they exited at 29 cents in other forums. As a fundamental investor, if you are able to buy avaland shares at 29 cent, giving you 8 (27% earning to share price) to 10(34% earning to share price) cents EPS for the next 1 year, why would you sell?

Xuxu is also another trader who jumped on the boat, and will probably take profit at 10, 15% or cut loss in the next 1 week and won't be around anymore.

Short term, the share price will be under certain trader influence, as they'll probably use margin/or T+2/T+7 trading facility to 'bet' with no intention of picking up the shares, resulting in cut loss/selling later in the next few days.

i myself like most 'investors' started of my journey long time ago, doing exactly the same things i keep seeing happening, taking short profit, cutting losses, jumping around from one share to the next, but overtime, from personal experience these type of trading mentality will lose you more money than you will gain.

Example, if you sell Avaland now, what other shares that fundamentally can give u 27%+ EPS per year in the entire Bursa?

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

After Avaland, it is gonna to be Mkland in Focus!

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Totally agree with U Val, our job as an investor is to acquire stocks is battered n in bad shape due to sector downturn and hold it long enough to profit from it when it recovers in the long run...To Acquire undervalued stocks, we must know how much a stock is really worth based on its current earnings n balance sheet and buy it way way below its fair value...U are wasting ur time in the market if U treat stocks like a touch & Go machine...U will lose more money by jumping from stock to stock by being a trader...

Posted by BursaKakis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

AVALAND Q4 Dec 23 EPS 2.58 cts Share Price @ 0.295 cts,
LBS Q4 Dec 23 EPS 1.97 cts Share Price @ 0.67 cts,
E&O Q3 Dec 23 EPS 1.88 cts Share Price @ 0.87 cts
as at 22022024

Posted by Val-Elta > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Anyway, can't rush la, maybe too many ppl sold at 20 - 25 cent, so now have opportunity for a lot to unload/take quick profit at 29c.

Give it a week, those T2/T7 traders will exit, and we'll see if a new support can be formed around 29 cents. If yes, this price will be the average price paid for most recent existing shareholders already, supporting a new uptrend potentially to 40 cents by May.

Signing off now, hope to see you guys in the AGM or in May again as we review their next QR performance.

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

This is surely a 0.50 share moving into 2025 in comparison to LBS, Mahsing and E&O if U compare EPS...at 8 Sen EPS, LBS already trading at 0.68...just imagine if Avaland's EPS can reach 5-6 Sen per share by year end, definitely Ava is worth at least 0.50...So there is still a lot of upside for Avaland as its unbilled is expected to rise further as 1.4 bil worth of new launching to kickstart this year...it is a growth stock to my understanding!

Posted by faberlicious > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Nemesis, wether it is worth 50 sen or not I do not know. But FYI E&O LBS and Mahsing have a longer profitability track record than Avaland. PE wise KPPROP trades 4.4x even cheaper than Avaland at 6.5x. KPPROP trades at 0.40 to NTA while Avaland slightly lower at 0.46 . KPPROP pays 1 sen dividend each quarter. If Avaland is able to maintain earnings consistently at 1.5 sen( assuming) each quarter and Mr market accords a 7x PE at 42 sen I would be very satisfied.

Posted by faberlicious > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Correction: Avaland trades at 0.46 slightly higher than KPPROP.

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Please trust Ayala Land to do the great job for Avaland...Ayala Land is the largest property developer in Philippines owning over 30,000 acres landbank...Their record financial performance is rock solid and first class management...If U acquire Avaland, U are actually buying a stake in Ayala Land...its EPS will only go up in the future as they have are very ambitious and sterling team management...

Posted by nemesis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

My long term TP for Avaland is 1.00 in 3 years time standing tall with the big boys like Mahsing, Ecoworld and LBS...Reiterate BUY!

Posted by xuxu > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

aiyo siapa ckp saya short trade ? I belum jual lagi lah

Posted by BursaKakis > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Avaland may extend uptrend, says RHB Retail Research
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/702456

Posted by Val-Elta > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

:D stay on xuxu, sama sama ride. Today volume is exceptional, first hour already about 50% of the volume on Thursday.

Seems like all who want to take quick profit, T+2,3 have been fully bought out already.

As mentioned before, this is a fundamental shift, that totally invalidates all prior trading pattern/technical support/resistance.

Share price is like 2.5 years high, earnings is like 4-5 years high??

Would be good if it can close at 30.5 cents by end of today, and stay within 29.5 to 30.5 for this week to confirm all the T+7 trader exit.

Unless some research house initiate coverage/news interview coming, won't have much more news/guidance until their AGM in April I guess. I'll share more by then if have noteworthy items.

Posted by Bull13 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Fantastic 3Q results. Share price should be above 50s to reflect its performance

Posted by newbie9893 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Mkland will be the next counter to shoot up kaw kaw after Avaland..buy..........

Posted by nemesis > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Yes agree ...Mkland is the most laggard now... Avaland has risen, Mkland is NEXT!

Posted by Nice149 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Revenue & profit up quarter by quarter. Target revenue of 1.4 bill Avaland is still the best !!!!!

Posted by KingKKK > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Want to know more about why Avaland is worth 46 sen?

Read here:
AVALAND: Transforming From Strength to Strength in the Malaysian Property Market

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/bestStocks/2024-03-01-story-h-187561001-AVALAND_Transforming_From_Strength_to_Strength_in_the_Malaysian_Propert

Posted by Bull13 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

2 solid Q of profits....with new management team..this stock is undervalued. Should be more than 50s!

Posted by Bull13 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2023/12/27/avaland-what-changed-and-why-the-upbeat/

Posted by Bull13 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

AVALAND: Transforming From Strength to Strength - KingKKK (Intrinsic Value 46 sen, 57% upside)

Posted by Bull13 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Rising revenue and rising profits for the last 6 quarters has put many property developers to shame. Definitely worth more than 46 sen as said by King KKK

Posted by Bull13 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

High end luxury condos and properties are now in demand with weaker ringgit and demand from expatriates. Avaland definitely to benefit. Maybe nxt QR they will declare dividend?

Posted by Bull13 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1908721/property-sales-hit-fresh-record-rm1968-bil-2023-johor-sees-highest-price-rise-says-napic

Posted by Bull13 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

A property bull run is in the making...