Posted by Lulu La > 2017-03-08 12:22 | Report Abuse

how u know going to fly

Posted by Tiger_shark > 2017-03-08 14:03 | Report Abuse

6 sense

Posted by Tiger_shark > 2017-03-08 17:07 | Report Abuse

Anjoo investors will move over to ss, i think quite soon

Posted by Lulu La > 2017-03-09 11:12 | Report Abuse

i think if your six sense is accurate..my suggestion to u is not to stay at stock market...go Genting casino is much more better..haha

Posted by Tiger_shark > 2017-03-09 14:29 | Report Abuse

go genting i always loose but in stock market i always win, ha ha so i stay in stock market, I'm very confident sure make money in SS

Posted by probability > 2017-03-09 14:31 | Report Abuse

sixth sense is the ultimate TA ma....

in casino you can't apply TA...u only apply probability- if not Tans sri Lim wouldnt have been so rich..

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-03-10 11:06 | Report Abuse

LIONIND up. Ssteel down. What is this.
=|

Posted by jackfruit > 2017-03-10 11:23 | Report Abuse

Test your patience.

Posted by ks5S > 2017-03-11 20:58 | Report Abuse

steel bar in demand. Monday limit up

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/moneymoney/118058.jsp

Posted by Tiger_shark > 2017-03-13 14:35 | Report Abuse

with many big big project on the go, southern steel construction bar going to be a boom

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-03-16 08:53 | Report Abuse

This forum is quite 'cold' for sometimes. I believe in one day it will hot back because construction is start to boom now. More steel is needed plus the steel price is high.

Posted by probability > 2017-03-18 20:03 | Report Abuse

ss need to make a move soon...

http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/03/13/chinese-steel-prices-resume-their-rally/

Posted by probability > 2017-03-18 20:04 | Report Abuse

Chinese steel prices resumed their rally on Monday, climbing almost 6% after the country’s Ministry of Information and Technology (MIIT) reaffirmed Beijing’s promise to curb excess steel capacity.

Speaking at the People’s Congress’ news conference over the weekend, Minister Miao Yu recommitted to the capacity cut target of 50 million tons and noted that that target does not include steel made from junk quality iron ore.


While this latest update from China drove steel prices higher, sentiment was already improving as market participants looked to the start of peak construction season. The latest S&P Global Platts China Steel Sentiment Index (CSSI), for March, showed a headline reading of 49.19 out of a possible 100 points. While this measure was below 50, putting it barely in contraction territory, it was up significantly from February’s 25.21 reading. The outlook for new domestic orders strengthened by 26.27 points from February to 50.80 in March. The outlook for steel production rebounded to a 10-month high of 56.67, up by 18.03 from February while export expectations remain low. For exports, March’s reading declined by 2.50 points from February to reach 28.01.

This improving sentiment is partially being driven by the expectation that steel inventories held by traders will fall in March. Steel inventories held by China have been higher than usual since the Chinese New Year. S&P’s senior managing editor of steel and raw materials said: “Another round of steel production restrictions in China’s Hebei province, along with closures of induction furnaces in Jiangsu province, are supporting the positive outlook for long steel product orders and prices, while end-user demand in the construction sector has improved due to the warmer weather.”

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-03-20 09:47 | Report Abuse

I really hope so. The price has been stagnating at the sub-1.40 level for far too long.

Posted by probability > 2017-03-20 19:28 | Report Abuse

no matter how high rebar price rise...you wont rise meh?
sure or not....?

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-927.html

3756 renminbi as of 20March2017

Posted by probability > 2017-03-20 19:38 | Report Abuse

i thought even 1% rise on your gross margin will have 17% rise on your bottomline...no meh?

Posted by probability > 2017-03-20 19:45 | Report Abuse

you are not trading rebar...do u?
can your COGS via FIFO rise that much - 23% within the last quarter?
aren't you using cheap scrap metals purchased at special price - which has no whatsoever-direct relationship with iron ore?

Posted by probability > 2017-03-20 19:48 | Report Abuse

construction and property company buying rebars cheaply from China meh?

or all going for Ann Joo?

Posted by probability > 2017-03-20 19:52 | Report Abuse

if within 2 months the rebar price shot up by 23%...its because raw material price had gone up or because demand has shot up relative to supply?

Posted by probability > 2017-03-20 19:53 | Report Abuse

sorry...only 20% up :(

Posted by Albukhary > 2017-03-20 20:02 | Report Abuse

Probability, SSTEEL sure will up, but not now.
Now market sentiment focus on penny stock first, after goreng finish, market will focus on good fundamental stock like SSTEEL again.
I expect the attention will back to SSTEEL on second half of April, 2 weeks before the announcement of QR.

My calculation shows this quarter SSTEEL should made around RM45-60 mil net profit.

Posted by MrPauper > 2017-03-20 20:51 | Report Abuse

I agree with Albukhary, I expect it to wait for another quarter especially when it is confirmed the average rebar and billet's price maintained at the peak

Posted by MrPauper > 2017-03-20 20:53 | Report Abuse

Moreover, companies like ann joo

Posted by MrPauper > 2017-03-20 22:19 | Report Abuse

They are waiting for the announcement of longer term import duty for rebars and wire rods in mid april. That is the time when the beast will be unleashed !

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-03-21 11:16 | Report Abuse

Alright guys! Thanks for the sharing. Mid-End of April is when this counter will take off then!
But are we certain that import duty will be extended? Has the authority given any hint?

Posted by yoloisreal > 2017-03-21 15:44 | Report Abuse

Don't waste chance to accumulate more

Posted by OOMMGG > 2017-03-21 19:21 | Report Abuse

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-20/china-won-t-repeat-steel-market-crash-in-17-japanese-mill-says

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-03-22 16:43 | Report Abuse

Falling below the EMA 30 line. >_<

Posted by MrPauper > 2017-03-22 22:32 | Report Abuse

For those who still have doubt, the following info might be of use to you all :-

Price of steel bars in Malaysia for Jul - Sep 2016
Jul 15 : 1,930
Aug 12 : 1,990
Aug 26 : 1,990
Sep 2 : 1,950
Sep 9 : 1,870
Sep 26 : 1,850

Price of steel bars in Malaysia for Oct - Dec 2016
Oct 7 : 1,950
Oct 14 : 1,950
Oct 28 : 1,900
Nov 4 : 1,930
Nov 11 : 1,980
Nov 18 : 2,150
Nov 25 : 2,200
Dec 2 : 2,200
Dec 19 : 2,430

Price of steel bars in Malaysia for Jan - Mar 2017
Jan 6 : 2,430
Jan 13 : 2,350
Jan 16 : 2,350
Feb 3 : 2,330
Feb 13 : 2,350
Feb 17 : 2,350
Feb 26 : 2,300
Mar 3 : 2,300
Mar 13 : 2,290
Mar 17 : 2,290

Jul - Sep 2016 recorded EPS of 4.60 sen
Oct - Dec 2016 recorded EPS of 8.67 sen
Jan - Mar 2017 recorded EPS of xxx sen

You guys try to guess what xxx figure should be !!!

Hahaha !!!

Posted by probability > 2017-03-22 22:37 | Report Abuse

MrPauper..kindly share your source of this information.

Posted by MrPauper > 2017-03-23 00:22 | Report Abuse

These information are extracted from MITI weekly bulletin. You can refer to MITI website. It is more meaningful in directly reflecting the steel market performance in Malaysia compared to other foreign steel market price performance

Posted by Albukhary > 2017-03-23 00:25 | Report Abuse

Good sharing, Mr Pauper.

Posted by MrPauper > 2017-03-23 00:38 | Report Abuse

I have been following closely on our local steel market development lately. From my personal view, although the current steel price might have reached its peak, the price should be sustainable above RM2,000 per MT especially with the forthcoming demand of steel for construction of mega projects awarded recently.

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-03-23 09:19 | Report Abuse

Thank you Mr Pauper. You are truly selfless in sharing your compilation of prices. Also thank the other Sifu's who have been contributing from time to time.

Compiling what is shared here so far plus a bit of my thoughts (pls correct me if I got anything wrong):

Known:
1) steel price remains strong at sub- RM 2.3-2.4k level over Q1.

2) the steel price level quoted (sub-RM 2.3-2.4k) is local price hence more reliable than benchmarking against China steel price (I remember mycron failed to charge its customers the international market price - and the same situation is seen here where the local price softened a little when China steel price increased by 20%)

Half-Certain:
3) material cost should not have increased in line with steel price

4) even if we assume material cost increase by same %, the other operating cost is not affected (if everything else remains the same) hence the profit margin will automatically get a boost

5) the volume - should be stable given its position as a main player but cannot entirely rule out the possibility of a reduction as price has increased much from last year.

Unknown:
6) The extension of import duty due next month

7) whether the recent mega projects will somehow source the steel from china


Overall, the prospects seems positive but there are two large unknowns that can potentially spoil the soup.

Posted by MrPauper > 2017-03-23 14:31 | Report Abuse

A good compilation from Warn3r.. perhaps would just like to insert few additional discussion points:-

1. The current price of steel has not taken full consideration of the demand from customers / construction companies which most probably still have cheap stock from steel dumped in from China previously (should be depleted completely more or less by this month).

2. The government has recently awarded quite substantial infrastructure projects which are expected to commence soon in 2nd half of the year. The construction companies will start to restock their steel supplies soon.

3. The government is encouraging local companies especially construction companies to source materials locally first before looking elsewhere to contribute to our local economic growth. This will further boost the volume if not together with selling price of our local steel manufacturers.

4. In relation to point no. 3, the government will most probably extent the current import tariff on steel products from China in mid-April for the longer term (for the next 5 years at least) to discourage the local construction companies to source from overseas.

5. Regardless of point no. 4, Malaysian construction companies will reduce their overseas supply as the steel imports from China have risen tremendously over the past 6 months due to their local surge in demand and cutdown in supply (as instructed by Chinese government). Chinese steel manufacturers are more willing to supply to their local market now given the higher selling price and lower logistics cost.

6. Although RM has been depreciating these few months against USD, Southern Steel's management (part of the renowned Hong Leong Group) has stated their continuous cost-cutting / management effort in ensuring a sustainable and profitable return as stated in their latest annual report and quarterly reports. Words coming from such prominent leadership is much more reliable than other individuals who might have less weightage in their unproven track record.

Having stated the above, I reiterate my strong faith in the performance of the Company for the coming year and hopefully many more years to come ! Cheers !

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-03-23 14:53 | Report Abuse

Thanks. I could only compile but you guys are sharing insights. Thank you for sharing. Got so much to learn from you guys. Thumbs up.

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-03-27 11:41 | Report Abuse

Er. Broke 1.40?!

Posted by goodluck999 > 2017-03-27 15:25 | Report Abuse

dropped 0.13 ..now 1.29..

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-03-27 16:35 | Report Abuse

All steel counters (annjoo, masteel, ssteel and lionind) took a big hit. I hope this is them spreading rumors to sell down before collecting more at a low price before Miti announce of the extension. Even if there's no extension to the duty, china rebar price is not really cheaper than the local price now. Hmm...

Posted by Rasta07 > 2017-03-27 16:51 | Report Abuse

Sifu, where to get news about safeguard duties? is it this? http://www.miti.gov.my/index.php/pages/view/3343

Posted by Invest1188 > 2017-03-27 18:57 | Report Abuse

This is the one, final determination is 6 months from
Sep last yr
https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/malaysia-imposes-preliminary-safeguard-duty-on-rebar-imports-950462.htm

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-03-27 20:58 | Report Abuse

http://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/03/5380update.html?m=1
Can take a look from this sifu.

Posted by Jingyang > 2017-03-27 22:28 | Report Abuse

Refer to the edge for futher informations.

Posted by Max Lau > 2017-03-28 08:47 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/28/steel-stocks-fall-ahead-of-govt-decision-on-safeguard-duties/

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-03-28 20:48 | Report Abuse

http://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/03/5.html?m=1

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-03-29 08:59 | Report Abuse

I have no doubt that Q1 report will be much better than the previous quarter (EPS 8.67). This is almost guaranteed comparing the Q1-2017 local steel price against the previous quarter. Volume shouldn't be a meaningful risk.

Now the outcome on 10 April is unknown. But a competent investor shouldn't bet on the outcome but instead have plans for either outcome. From what is shared, it seems that the impact of removing the duty is negligible to none in the short term. This is because (1) currently China steel price is already trading at similar level as local steel price; (2) Chinese govt has set goals to curb steel over-production (this should help to keep the China steel price up); and (3) Strengthened/strengthening renminbi will also help to hold this true at least in the short to mid term.

Well. The real risk Lies in the mid-long term (1-2 years ahead) prospect of steel. Coming 6 months should be good, coming 2 QR will wrap the FY2017 with at least EPS = 4.6+8.67+10+8>31. Not sure if I can get any more conservative setting the next EPS at 10. Let's apply a low PE of 6 and that would give us RM 1.86.

Pls share your views. =]

Posted by OOMMGG > 2017-03-29 13:51 | Report Abuse

We are at cross road. People worry, and uncertainty is there. We may plan ahead and taking aopportunity at this critical time.

Posted by noah > 2017-03-29 21:29 | Report Abuse

Warn3r thanks for ur sharing....
very interesting & meaningful

Posted by goodluck999 > 2017-03-30 11:09 | Report Abuse

CAN START TO BUY IN AROUND 1.17-1.20

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-03-30 13:35 | Report Abuse

Think about it. Is this information concealed from the public? Nope. It's available and known all this while. Why would anyone pull such a great effort to spam a sms/msg to remind/warn so many ppl? The objective is to have a synchronized same day sell down of all steel counters. Why synchronized? So that there's fear and panic sell down.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it's just a kind soul doing community service. When you sell, there's a counter party happily collecting.