Posted by Albukhary > 2017-04-13 22:52 | Report Abuse

Back to year 2008, that was the year where SSTEEL share price stand above RM3.60. Actually it is not impossible to back to that kind of level, as long as SSTEEL profit can maintain at RM45mil per quarter, so whole year EPS will be around 45sen. Then announce a dividend of 20sen, I'm pretty sure it can stand above RM3.60.

With the safeguard duties extend for 3 years, and so many infrastructure project in Malaysia, the above assumption are very likely to achieve.

好想看到南钢回到2008年的风光，那时股价可是站在RM3.60以上呢。 其实也不难，只要盈利保持在RM45mil每季度，全年EPS大概45sen，再派个20sen的股息，那肯定就站在RM3.60了。

基于国家未来几年的基建发展很多，再加上保护税延长3年，以上的假设是很有可能达到的。

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-04-13 23:32 | Report Abuse

http://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/04/52020.html

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-04-13 23:43 | Report Abuse

Seems like ppl will look into steel counters soon because recently construction, semiconductor, O&G , logistic, IT related stock were goreng up.. Left steel counters static but somemore drop due to the rumor recently.

Posted by hooi > 2017-04-14 06:39 | Report Abuse

Limit up all the steel counter.

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-04-14 08:00 | Report Abuse

Albukhary sifu, thanks for the sharing. I was not aware of ssteel's past glorious days. Last quarter revenue was 731.6m with a net profit of 36.6m. With the mega projects lined up and import duty in place for another 3 years, it'll be sellers'market and ssteel should be able to squeeze out at least 2-3% more margin. That would bring the net profit to no less than the 45m during the glorious days.

Within 6 months (2 more QR will be out), it should hit RM 2.00 (conservative) if not RM 2.40 (more realistic). In 12 -15 months time, RM 3.00 or more. Am I thinking too big? Time will tell. =]

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-04-14 08:29 | Report Abuse

I have to say. Leo Ting sifu's blogs are very comprehensive and insightful, I benefited greatly from his sharing. He also considered increased in sales volume in the next 3 years.

Posted by hooi > 2017-04-14 08:55 | Report Abuse

the latest quarter result and miti support validate that this counter can move higher and challenge ann joo . Will break 2.00 soon.

Posted by ks5S > 2017-04-14 08:58 | Report Abuse

turbo engine warming up. Let's race against Ann Joo
Angelina darling... i'm coming

Posted by Rasta07 > 2017-04-14 09:03 | Report Abuse

Hope reach 1.50 today..seem possible

Posted by ks5S > 2017-04-14 09:09 | Report Abuse

maybe mr kwek start planning to buy back the share and take it private soon . It is too cheap if compare with ann joo.

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-04-14 09:13 | Report Abuse

Another post from me, Sorry too excited now. 730m revenue last quarter, x 4 to get 3 Bil full year revenue. Apply a margin of 6% to get 180m net profit. That's 10.7 cents EPS per quarter. 43 cents EPS per year.

Above I have assumed no increase in sales volume, and only a 1% improvement in margin (net profit/revenue was 5.0% last quarter).

At least 43 cents EPS in the next 12 months. Apply this with a low PE of 7 already get RM 3.00. Did I get anything wrong? I'm doubting my own simple projection.

Posted by sostupid > 2017-04-14 09:31 | Report Abuse

Warn3r: I don't know if you can read Chinese or not, by the way: integrity means don't ask people to think for you, intelligent means don't ask people to do solely for you own needs, energy means don't ask people to do anything solely to your own likings. If you lack the first it means you are not intelligent and lack of energy. That is why it is so important to have integrity.

Posted by sostupid > 2017-04-14 09:37 | Report Abuse

（１）替你想　（沒有頭腦）　（２）做你需要（不實際）　（３）做你喜歡的事情（不現實）．

Posted by king36 > 2017-04-14 09:44 | Report Abuse

I thought this i3 forum is for sharing.
No harm to ask - if someone wants to share, just reply.
If u don't want to share and want to carry yr knowledge to yr coffin, BE it so.
What integrity?
Many newbies in this forum. We are lucky to hv this i3. We all grow wiser with this sharing.
If u don't want to talk just shut up and drop off!

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2017-04-14 11:09 | Report Abuse

planning n projections will b good for long term investment. The problem lies with China ,the greatest world producer. if mega projects were to use our local steel than the business shall b excellent but if the decision to use China steel than nothing will b gain for local producers. The final decision will b left to govt to decide. if there is a political change , mega projects will b reviewed n may not b carried out at all. Both scenarios exist. It is this a guessing game on its futures.

Posted by Lulu La > 2017-04-14 11:14 | Report Abuse

walao...long time din see sostupid bull shit in i3

Posted by Rasta07 > 2017-04-14 14:45 | Report Abuse

Any 3pm show today?

Posted by ks5S > 2017-04-14 14:56 | Report Abuse

this kwek chase angelina so slow one. Angeline already up 6 cents, this kwek only 3 cents.
Use turbo-lah..........

Posted by ks5S > 2017-04-14 15:00 | Report Abuse

kwek...use supercharge turbo-lah... not the normal turbo.

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-04-14 15:42 | Report Abuse

这么笨：不懂你是中英文水平都不理想，或是对自己盲目引用的文句一窍不通，又或者在逻辑思维上有很大的进步空间。

我并未没有要求任何一个指定的人去帮我想或做任何事。这是你逻辑上有毛病或对文句的引用一知半解。我做的是推算，再请任何自愿的人一起推敲和讨论。并没有强求任何一个对这话题没有兴趣的人去给我答复。

无论如何，这么简单不起眼又是不符义论性的问题也能让你那么不高兴。你的回复，反映的不是我的问题有什么毛病，而是你的心胸，和你对人生的态度。

共勉之。

I still do not mind being a friend. But please leave your issues and unhappiness from your life out and make constructive comments.

备注：你的中英翻译真的。。。无语。

Posted by ks5S > 2017-04-16 08:47 | Report Abuse

ann joo rated buy.
SSteel will move the same direction.
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/14/maybank-ib-retains-buy-call-on-ann-joo/

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-04-16 11:47 | Report Abuse

Hmm, Annjoo already 2.69 but Ssteel just 1.39.. Ssteel really big lagged behind Annjoo.

Posted by 55880955 > 2017-04-16 12:27 | Report Abuse

don't worry. this is hong leong boss company. Will shoot up one day. Look at last time hong leong capital. Lag behind but move up fast when people notice.

Posted by 55880955 > 2017-04-16 12:33 | Report Abuse

last time mpi also like that . 5.00 only. Once the semiconductor sector recover, shoot to 10.00
ssteel will behave this way. Be patience.

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-04-16 22:42 | Report Abuse

http://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/04/5_13.html?m=1

Posted by probability > 2017-04-16 22:53 | Report Abuse

Steel 5th Report of the Big horse long steel Market size!

For the last two years, 2015 and 2016 The big horse local long steel dealer's market sells about 8 billion.With the simplest algorithm, there can be 10% net profit this year.8 billion is the net profit 800 million, to 4 main long steel business cent bar!

For 2014 years, about 35% of the long steel is imported.2015 was the year of the disaster, the proportion was higher than 2014. Export long steel is poor!2016 improved some.

2017, this year, with the protection tax officially implemented for 3 years,Long steel imports will be suppressed to the lowest level. Therefore, these requirements will be filled by the local manufacturer's output.

Yields increase, usually the cost of production divided by units falls, so profitability will be.

Plus, the protection tax makes long steel a market for sellers.So, there will be a double profit appearing!

As the 2016 statistics are not yet released, We calculate the imports of long steel for 2015 years.It imports about 3.5 million tons of long steel.

Assuming that imports have been lowered to 1.5 million tonnes in 2017 years, and 2 million tons of local purchases with big horses.

Calculated on average RM2100 per ton, That would be a 4.2 billion extra sales.

With nearly two years of RM80 billion local manufacturers sales, Plus RM42 billion, That 2017,2018,2019, About the local long steel sales will rise to around 12 billion%.


Calculate by 10% net profit, is 1.2 billion.

2017, 4 long steel merchants shared.

After 2018, a more joint-steel share.

Overall, enough to feed the 5 local long steel merchants

Posted by 55880955 > 2017-04-17 09:55 | Report Abuse

now ann joo run. Once tired , the baton will pass to S.Steel
Tag-team bull run.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-04-17 09:56 | Report Abuse

possible

880955 now ann joo run. Once tired , the baton will pass to S.Steel
Tag-team bull run.

Posted by 55880955 > 2017-04-17 10:10 | Report Abuse

kwek's company always low profile in the every industry sector.
hl bank also like that last time. All the bank bull run except him. Bull run finish liow, then he start engine, from 5.00 to 10.00.

Posted by hooi > 2017-04-17 11:09 | Report Abuse

kwek mgo on southern steel in 2010 at 2.05 per share. Time for him to do this again.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/offer-southern-steel-may-not-appeal-long-term-investors

Posted by hooi > 2017-04-17 11:21 | Report Abuse

probably kwek want to restructure his building material business under one holding company just like ytl.
southern steel + hume cement .
Time will tell as kwek may do a pnb show later.

Posted by ymj1016 > 2017-04-17 15:01 | Report Abuse

after annjoo fly, he will pass the wings to quek to fly also.

Posted by Risk Rider > 2017-04-17 15:30 | Report Abuse

market overlooked on this? But why?

Posted by manji > 2017-04-17 16:13 | Report Abuse

qr release anytime soon

Posted by Redpeople > 2017-04-17 16:40 | Report Abuse

ssteel charging.. let anjoo run first

Posted by andry > 2017-04-17 17:02 | Report Abuse

annjoo up 20cent, southsteel up 2 cents

Posted by andry > 2017-04-17 17:19 | Report Abuse

tomorrow annjoo up 2 cents, southernsteel up 20 cents

Posted by Albukhary > 2017-04-17 17:39 | Report Abuse

Copy from BB_Trader, and I modified it to apply on SSTEEL

SSTEEL
FV: RM3.60

Positive
1. Steel price - steel bar prices steadily rising on the back of china capacity cuts program.
2. Steel demand - increasing driven by construction booming following most contractors having all time high orderbook. Furthermore, recent safeguard duties for the next 3 years will push contractors to buy steel locally.
3. Earnings outlook - should maintain or higher than last quarter profit - RM45m. If annualised, they may deliver up to RM180m.
4. Powerful shareholder - Kwek family
4. Technical - bullish - MAs, MACD, RSI
6. FV - if net profit of RM45m continue to be delivered, SSTEEL is fairly valued at RM3.60 based on 8x PER.

Posted by harlem > 2017-04-17 18:48 | Report Abuse

If 3Q maintain or higher than last quarter profit - RM45m, then can really move, otherwise ........

Posted by harlem > 2017-04-17 18:49 | Report Abuse

waiting for 3Q report ..... should be out soon ....

Posted by Albukhary > 2017-04-17 19:40 | Report Abuse

Today I sold Annjoo at RM2.80, and switch all the fund to SSTEEL.

5,000 Annjoo can convert to 10,000 unit of SSTEEL.

Reason:-

If Annjoo really can touch RM3.20, then I believe SSTEEL will be at RM1.70-1.80 level.. So in term of percentage, SSTEEL has higher return.

In term of risk, let said market suddenly cool down, I think SSTEEL maximum drop to RM1.10, but ANNJOO anytime will drop back to RM2.20. So after consider the risk & return, I decide to go for SSTEEL.

Posted by Hunger > 2017-04-17 21:16 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/zefftan

Read this up.dont be silly.compare annjoo with other smaller player like ssteel?u gotta be kidding me.if ssteel can give 9 cent at period where all steel industry collapsing..then u can say that counter is better than annjoo.else u just wasted ur chance pulling out of annjoo for small counter that dont move.trust me.i been there done that before.look at pmetal.yet to move for frigging months.i have waited and wasted my time on pmetal bwfore jumping to annjoo as annjoo got better coverage and good dividend

Posted by andry > 2017-04-17 23:04 | Report Abuse

@Hunger, in term of production output, SSsteel is almost double of Annjoo, in term of revenue SSsteel is almost double of Annjoo. Do your home work,

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-04-17 23:22 | Report Abuse

In term of profit margin, Annjoo win but in term of revenue, Ssteel win.. As we compare recent 2 quarter EPS of these 2 companies, actually it is not much different.. However in term share price, it has a big different..

Posted by Up_down > 2017-04-18 09:14 | Report Abuse

Profit margin is almost secured for the next 3 years. Good buy now for investing in this turnaround company.

Posted by andry > 2017-04-18 09:17 | Report Abuse

Annjoo already 4 quarters making good money, ss only 2 quarters making money. with the rebar import from China expensive, all project will rely on local steel mills to supply. Every quarters Annjoo and SS will be making good money.

Posted by Up_down > 2017-04-18 09:34 | Report Abuse

More to come in term of top and bottom lines growth. It will be due for re-rating after the company post another good profits for next 2 quarters. Early bird will be rewarded handsomely.

Posted by ks5S > 2017-04-18 10:20 | Report Abuse

faster buy, ... if not you will regret kao-kao.
this share at least 1.80. Will hit 2.00 soon and later in-par with ann joo and finally overtake ann joo
don;t play-play with ssteel...hong leong company... same standard like mpi

Posted by probability > 2017-04-18 10:25 | Report Abuse

Albukhary i think you made a wise decision. Reason is simple:

At current AnnJoo market cap...the gross profit Margin of AnnJoo (which is at a Premium compared to SS) has to be above its current level going forward - this is the key takeaway.

2% increase in Gross Profit Margin of AnnJoo (which is having 10% Net Profit Margin currently) will cause a 20% increase in its Net profit. But the same increase in Gross Margin of SS will have 40% increase in SS's bottom line (SS is currently only having 5% Net profit Margin)

One can view SS as the leveraged version of AnnJoo....when the industry gross margin thins out..it will have severe damage to SS...but conversely when it fattens...then you see explosive returns to SS.

Posted by ks5S > 2017-04-18 10:52 | Report Abuse

angelina tired already. Now the baton pass to Ah Chan.
Ah Chan stlll warming-up. Haven't run yet but still holding the baton waiting the gun to fired.