Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-02-15 10:34 | Report Abuse

http://www.100ppi.com/vane/detail-927.html

Posted by YiStock > 2017-02-15 10:39 | Report Abuse

Probability bro, Y-O-Y, revenue increased but COGS flat. The older cheap stock will deplete one day. Be careful ya. cheers

Posted by probability > Feb 15, 2017 09:44 AM | Report Abuse

hmm...me too but at 1.45 :(...hope the results does not blind me * - *

Posted by adamdacutie > 2017-02-15 10:46 | Report Abuse

hmm... m stuck at 1.46 :(

Posted by Up_down > 2017-02-15 11:01 | Report Abuse

By looking at the gross profit margin trend in the past few quarters, I believe Ssteel will remain profitable in next QR. The profit may not be as high as what has achieved for last quarter but it would certainly better than QR 31Mar16.

SSteel's gross profit margin

31 Dec 16 - 14.5%
30 Sep 16 - 15.6%
30 Jun 16 - 15.2%
31 Mar 16 - 6.1%
31 Dec 15 - -1.4%

Posted by erkongseng > 2017-02-15 11:01 | Report Abuse

SSteel 5665 南钢 Rm1.45 进入：
估计2017 年6月财年的Eps =23 sen,pe=8,stock price=rm 1.84
只供参考,投资自负.

Posted by YiStock > 2017-02-15 11:04 | Report Abuse

Updown, 30 Sept 16 Quarter, the inventory write off should deduct from COGS. What you think?

Posted by Up_down > Feb 15, 2017 11:01 AM | Report Abuse

By looking at the gross profit margin trend in the past few quarters, I believe Ssteel will remain profitable in next QR. The profit may not be as high as what has achieved for last quarter but it would certainly better than QR 31Mar16.

SSteel's gross profit margin

31 Dec 16 - 14.5%
30 Sep 16 - 15.6%
30 Jun 16 - 15.2%
31 Mar 16 - 6.1%
31 Dec 15 - -1.4%

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-02-15 11:18 | Report Abuse

Q at 1.43....Hopefully can get it..

Posted by probability > 2017-02-15 11:20 | Report Abuse

thanks Yistock...
but i am unclear how you concluded it is from 'old stock'
Say throughput = T, market Selling Price = SP

COGS = T x SP of Raw Mat
REV = T x SP of Prod

Since COGS of Qtr 31DEC15 and Qtr 31DEC16 is the same, my assumption is that the Throughput-T was relatively lesser in 31Dec16 but at higher 'SP of Raw Mat'....

that could also be true right?
Really appreciate your inputs to see where i could have overlooked

Posted by Up_down > 2017-02-15 11:22 | Report Abuse

Yistock. Inventory write off is normally charged to COGS if the amount small. Written off inventory RM 20 million is considered substantial so this amount included in Income Statement.

Posted by YiStock > 2017-02-15 11:28 | Report Abuse

Can tonnage be a factor? I also not very sure. All amount shows are in RM figure without volume.

Posted by probability > Feb 15, 2017 11:20 AM | Report Abuse

thanks Yistock...
but i am unclear how you concluded it is from 'old stock'
Say throughput = T, market Selling Price = SP

COGS = T x SP of Raw Mat
REV = T x SP of Prod

Since COGS of Qtr 31DEC15 and Qtr 31DEC16 is the same, my assumption is that the Throughput-T was relatively lesser in 31Dec16 but at higher 'SP of Raw Mat'....

that could also be true right?
Really appreciate your inputs to see where i could have overlooked

Posted by YiStock > 2017-02-15 11:30 | Report Abuse

I trace past 3 quarters report, i believe they include in the COGS. If so, then 30 Sept 2016 gross margin should touch 20%. Anyway, i also not very sure.

Posted by Up_down > Feb 15, 2017 11:22 AM | Report Abuse

Yistock. Inventory write off is normally charged to COGS if the amount small. Written off inventory RM 20 million is considered substantial so this amount included in Income Statement.

Posted by probability > 2017-02-15 11:37 | Report Abuse

i think the question we need to ask is the below Margin sustainable? If not how low can it go?

31 Dec 16 - 14.5%
30 Sep 16 - 15.6%

Megasteel closure should at least benefit them something 'competitive advantage & thus the Margin' after a year ?

Posted by Up_down > 2017-02-15 11:44 | Report Abuse

Yistock. You are right. The amount is included in COGS cause Operating Expenses shows 35 million to 45 million in the past few quarters.

Posted by YiStock > Feb 15, 2017 11:30 AM | Report Abuse

I trace past 3 quarters report, i believe they include in the COGS. If so, then 30 Sept 2016 gross margin should touch 20%. Anyway, i also not very sure.

Posted by Up_down > Feb 15, 2017 11:22 AM | Report Abuse

Yistock. Inventory write off is normally charged to COGS if the amount small. Written off inventory RM 20 million is considered substantial so this amount included in Income Statement.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-02-15 11:48 | Report Abuse

I don't agree with the gross margin for QR30/9/2016 should be 20%, in fact, I expected all steel companies should do not better than previous quarter in QR30/9/2016 because of drop in selling price.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-02-15 11:49 | Report Abuse

Try to look at the price chart for rebar in Malaysia

http://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl2751_rebar_price_in_malaysia_20152016_chart_1.jpg

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-02-15 11:53 | Report Abuse

To me, the company who did best for the quarter ended 30/9/2016 was Ssteel & Ann Joo, comparing to all steel companies.

However, if using QoQ comparison, the best went to SSteel.

Why? Because they can maintain gross profit margin even rebar price dipped from as high RM2,280 to as low RM1,775 during the quarter 30/9/2016

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-02-15 11:55 | Report Abuse

Ann Joo was the one who gained most during the Q30/6/2016, the only run away winner, but can only presented normal performance during Q30/9/2016. It will be interesting to see how it perform in Q31/12/2016

Posted by probability > 2017-02-15 11:58 | Report Abuse

yup...wonder what happens if AnnJoo posted an EPS at a level of SS..would AJ dip or SS rise?

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-02-15 12:05 | Report Abuse

hehe, can't say for Mr Market :)
--------------/------------------
Posted by probability > Feb 15, 2017 11:58 AM | Report Abuse
yup...wonder what happens if AnnJoo posted an EPS at a level of SS..would AJ dip or SS rise?

Posted by sheep > 2017-02-15 12:28 | Report Abuse

huat arrrr

Posted by mbs7633 > 2017-02-15 12:36 | Report Abuse

Let's see afternoon session. If up 30 sen a day, no show to watch anymore.

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-02-15 13:25 | Report Abuse

i believe ssteel is capability to take over other lose making steel company, example mega steel

Posted by erkongseng > 2017-02-15 14:09 | Report Abuse

是的,之前同行6556annjoo,5094cscstel 都大跑了.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2017-02-15 15:12 | Report Abuse

Very good result & keep it until RM2, congrats to all!

Posted by Tiger_shark > 2017-02-15 15:52 | Report Abuse

Southern steel import 50% of cheap billets from China, another 50% from its own meltshop which import scrap from oversea in USD. The meltshop capitalise on off peak electrical rate at night for energy savings. Even with the weakening of RM, ss already make good profit.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2017-02-15 16:08 | Report Abuse

Going back to 1.49

Posted by Tiger_shark > 2017-02-15 16:11 | Report Abuse

wow

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2017-02-15 16:15 | Report Abuse

Market has underestimated & undervalued SSteel previously, now only catching up only, still far from settled.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2017-02-15 16:16 | Report Abuse

Agreed with many sifus here, RM1.80 will be first test

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-02-15 17:28 | Report Abuse

As SSteel already move into the correct way, let's see how far it can move...

Posted by erkongseng > 2017-02-15 19:27 | Report Abuse

http://kongsenger.blogspot.my/2017/02/ssteel-5665-2016.html

Posted by erkongseng > 2017-02-16 07:14 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/why-rally-steel-stocks-far-over

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-02-16 13:51 | Report Abuse

The volume is turning low now..

Posted by probability > 2017-02-16 14:00 | Report Abuse

even if raw mat price rises later...the rebar selling price will be adjusted accordingly with the local consumers (its not that their clients have a choice to import with these new Duties imposed and weakened RM)...

the inventory is sufficient to cushion margin compression.. if at all it happens

on the other hand one should see the overview - the overall impact of this ~ 13% duty of rebar imports and the loss of competitors to consume cheap Scrap steel raw material available abundantly locally due to Megasteel closure...

Note Scrap steel will always exist...as they are recycled...and if im not mistaken at least 50% of the turnover of local steel industry is based on Scrap steel.

these may partly answer why they are able to source cheap raw material - even if they need to import.

Posted by erkongseng > 2017-02-16 15:18 | Report Abuse

为打穩战，寧可等二个季席净利才攻入，

Posted by MrPauper > 2017-02-16 15:25 | Report Abuse

Do remember that eventhough cheap inventories of Ssteel is running out soon, same goes to the cheap imported inventories of Ssteel's customers which will most probably be depleted by around Feb - Mar 17. This is the time when they have no choice but to increase the local demand amidst the higher selling price environment..

Construction growth might grow at a slower pace but will NEVER stop growing. Means that DEMAND will always be there

Posted by erkongseng > 2017-02-16 17:42 | Report Abuse

分析南钢2016第4季度财报!
https://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/02/20164.html?showComment=1487236936110#c8040923395393395539

Posted by Tiger_shark > 2017-02-16 17:43 | Report Abuse

ss only buy 50% of scrap just to keep melting shop busy, cannot make money but the rolling mill to produce rebar running 3 full-shifts. Billets source from China still at a very good price.

Question of high material cost is not a concern for SS, so far construction bar demand is not slowing down looking at the on going government projects

Posted by probability > 2017-02-17 01:55 | Report Abuse

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-927.html

Posted by erkongseng > 2017-02-17 03:41 | Report Abuse

中国己对许多商品有绝对的定价权，螺蚊钢就是其中一项，一帶一路下，产能减等是支持钢价利好。看來将有一些年的好景。

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-02-17 10:17 | Report Abuse

Crazy China rebar price

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-02-17 10:17 | Report Abuse

Another 10% up just in Feb itself

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-02-17 14:47 | Report Abuse

Future growth for SSteel is good but it has a weakness on stock liquidity.

Posted by Warn3r > 2017-02-17 15:39 | Report Abuse

Why does it keep sliding but by bit...? Really need patience with this counter.

Posted by Tiger_shark > 2017-02-17 17:40 | Report Abuse

many people still think SS will have the same faith as CSC after the cheap raw material depleted.

With 4 rolling mills, daily steel consumption is 6000ton. if 50% is imported, 3000ton/day need to be imported, If there is any cheap raw mat left in the store??? Those were last year concern, with this good quarter result, SS already turnaround and will continue to make profit.

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-02-17 17:55 | Report Abuse

By the way, ChooBee which using HRC as the raw material posting a good QR just now. It is different story with CSCsteel.

Posted by erkongseng > 2017-02-17 18:12 | Report Abuse

ssteel 幸福的笑容己展现.不要错过.

Posted by MrPauper > 2017-02-17 18:28 | Report Abuse

haha, who dares to bet with me that ssteel price will surpass choo bee over the next 3 - 6 months?

Posted by nicky11 > 2017-02-17 18:36 | Report Abuse

The potential investors still fear with the dark shadow of CSCsteel result. They may wait for Annjoo result to build their confident level.

Posted by erkongseng > 2017-02-17 20:30 | Report Abuse

现rolling 4 quarter 的Eps是亏損 15sen,当Q3,Q4 季报出后将呈現 EPs=23∼25 sen ,市場信心后股价就不是现在的rm1.43 了。