Tin – The Number 1 New Technology Metal -------------------------------------------------
Tin ranked as the No. 1 metal best placed to benefit from new technology according to a survey undertaken by Boston’s Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) for Rio Tinto.
Mdm Chew Gek Khim- the Executive Chairman of Straits Trading on its 52% stake in MSC ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ We are modernizing the company’s legacy tin mining and smelting business, owned through a strategic stake in Malaysia Smelting. It remains at the heart of the group, making up 85% of consolidated revenue. According to Bloomberg estimates, it’s expected to post a net profit of 63 million ringgit ($15 million) this year—the highest it’s been since 2009—easily surpassing last year’s pandemic-hit profit of 16 million ringgit. Earnings were boosted by soaring tin demand for use in everything from EVs to laptops, causing a supply crunch.
“The tin market continues to be tight and there’s little chance of this changing in the near term,” writes Geordie Wilkes, research head at Sucden Financial in London, in a research note published in July. The price of tin on the London Metals Exchange is up almost 80% since the beginning of the year, touching a historic high of $38,059 on Sept. 24. Wilkes expects the price to remain firmly on the upside averaging around $35,000 per tonne through 2022. That bodes well for Straits Trading’s metal-processing arm, which is slated to start commercial production at its new smelter later this year or in early 2022.
To expand capacity, Malaysia Smelting converted an old lead smelter in Pulau Indah into a tin smelter that can annually process up to 60,000 tonnes of tin. That figure is a 50% increase in capacity from its existing smelter in Butterworth, Penang, which will be decommissioned and redeveloped over the next decade into Straits City, a S$1 billion mixed-use hotel, retail, commercial and residential project. With the price of tin elevated, Chew expects to recoup the 80-million ringgit investment in the smelter within a year.
Tang at United First Partners points out that selling the tin business would definitely narrow Straits Trading’s trading discount. Others have also wondered if it remains a good fit for the company. Says Aberdeen’s Young: “Those assets in Malaysia could be of great value but are darned difficult [and] slow to realize.”
Chew has turned down all offers for Malaysia Smelting over the years—but not for sentimental reasons. She says: “I’ll get rid of it when I get my value. As far as I’m concerned there’s still a lot of value in it, so I’m not giving it up yet.”
This story appears in the October 31, 2021 issue of Forbes Asia.
Tin price has recently reached an all time record high. The current global landscape promoting environmental and sustainability initiatives, photovoltaic installations, EVs and growth in electronics bodes well for the demand of tin. While tin demand continues to grow rapidly, the global supply may continue to struggle to keep pace.
The operation in the Pulau Indah plant, using the newer and more efficient technology and a more productive work force, is expected to be fully commissioned by late 2021/early 2022. With the utilisation of the ISASMELT furnace, the Group expects higher operational efficiency, lower operational and manpower costs, while improving carbon footprint.
For the Group’s tin mining segment, efforts to increase daily mining output and improve overall mining productivity have been undertaken. The Group is also exploring potential joint ventures and initiatives to expand its mining activities.
MSC, a global EV.METAL stock n 3rd largest in exporting TIN:
Year 2020, Revenue = $800 mill with tin ASP at $16,000. Year 2021, Selling price of TIN went up in a straight line from $21,000 in Jan 2021 to $37,500 now = up +78%
Year 2022, Say ASP up +50% at $31,500, then increase in PAT = a whopping $800 revenue x 0.5 = $400 million PAT + increasing yearly vol demand = i.e. the formula to a coming super GROWTH stock ( ASP should be 31500/16000 = up +96% over year 2020 if u wish to dramatize the PAT)
this is the same exact way like valuing GLOVES in 1st half year 2020. the big difference is global EV.METAL demand will grow n grow higher in each year for decades to century!
Posted by PureBULL ... > Oct 30, 2021 6:45 AM | Report Abuse X
Global financial exam TOPIC: EV IS DRIVING SUPER HIGH DEMAND IN EV.METAL N EV.TECH FOR DECADES
This is just the BEGINNING, look at how bullish these EV.METALS r:
LITHIUM +311% ytd, $191,500 now TIN +82%, $37,040 COBALT +75%, $56,545 ALUMINUM +38%, $2,735
SILICON +173% since Aug 1st, 2021, cny$41,375
Our PMETAL, a KLCI component stock at $50 billion mkt cap is the mkt proven giant stock now n will only be growing larger. PMBTECH n MSC r the next coming multi bagger stocks available on KLSE...
Super purebull in TIN prices. EV.METALS r the shockalingam biz to be in. this EV metal biz will grow 1st as we see more EV.CARS worldwide on the roads : https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/tin
steel, like lumber is a building n construction material, has weakened to near Jan 2021 prices. n its raw material iron ore tells its future demand, is even lower now : https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel
Higher Mining Production further Enhances Outlook. ------------------------------------------------- In 2021, Malaysia Smelting Corp’s Rahman Hydraulic Tin (RHT) Mine in Perak (largest tin mine in Malaysia) managed to increase its average daily mining output to 11mt/day (from 8mt/day) as it explored new deposits and utilised new technology. Malaysia Smelting Corp will continue to boost its mining output to 12mt/day by 2022. Having secured a comfortable tin mining lease until 2034, Malaysia Smelting Corp can access more than 40,000mt of tin resources worth over RM7b. In addition, Malaysia Smelting Corp commenced mining activities at Sungai Lembing, Pahang last year with minimal average production of 100-200kg/day. In the next 1- 2 years, the mine is expected to gradually produce over 1,000mt/year. Malaysia Smelting Corp is also exploring potential JVs to expand its mining activities.
Estimated profits from Mining activities or tin extraction - MSC ----------------------------------------- 12 m/tons extracted per day in 2022 Approx 4,200 m/ton per year Current Price (per LME) - per m/ton - USD 38k x 4.10= RM155,800 Revenue (2022) just based on mining activities= RM654 million. Cost per m/ton is estimated at USD 20k Estimated Net profit from Mining activities alone -USD 18k x 4200 x 4.1 = RM310 million.
Approximately RM300 mil for FYE 2022- just from MINING activities EXCLUDING Smelting works.
EPS just based on MINING activities alone is PAT 310/420 m shares = 73.8 sen per share.
A conservative Forward PE of 8 = RM5.90 (excluding Profits from Smelting)
NOTE- Assuming the price of Tin remains elevated in the foreseeable future.
Electric car batteries will be the key growth driver for tin ---------------------------------------------------------
KUALA LUMPUR: Electric car batteries will be the key growth driver for tin commodity in the next few years as it is now being used as the base metal, aside from nickel, to produce faster charging car batteries.
Malaysia Smelting Corporation Bhd (MSC) chief executive officer Datuk Dr Patrick Yong Mian Thong said tin is greatly used in electric car batteries and it will be the growth base metal and the biggest user of tin due to its ability to fast charge and discharge ability.
"Undoubtedly, tin price will see solid uptrend in the next 5 years when the production and demand for batteries goes up, especially from the electric car segment.
"For now, in terms of supplying tin to battery manufacturers, we do not have a target end-user to tap as nobody is mass producing electric car batteries. We are still go through traditional supply chain," he told The New Straits Times in an interview.
Shanghai tin spot prices is currently at USD45k/t. And the tin supply is dwindling. MSC's all in sustainable tin mining cost is around USD10k-12k/t which is very low despite rather low grade tin ore.
Super purebull in TIN prices. EV.METALS r the shockalingam biz to be in. this EV metal biz will grow 1st as we see more increasing # of EV.CARS worldwide on the roads : https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/tin
Our PMETAL, a KLCI component stock at $50 billion mkt cap recently, is the mkt proven giant EV.METAL stock now n will only be growing larger. PMBTECH n MSC r the next coming multi bagger stocks available on KLSE...
steel, like lumber is a building n construction material, has weakened to near Jan 2021 prices. n its raw material iron ore tells its future demand, is even lower now : https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel
Fitch expects tin prices to remain on a firm uptrend in the coming decade.
While prices will ease slightly from spot levels in 2022, Fitch forecasts they will still remain historically elevated, and edge higher to reach $35,500/tonne by 2030. In perspective, this is nearly double when compared to the 2016-2020 average of $18,729/tonne.
The analyst expects tin demand to continue outstripping supply, pushing the market into deficit by 2026. On the supply side, a thin pipeline of tin mining projects will tighten the tin concentrate market, leading to increased competition among smelters and constrained ore feed for refined output growth, Fitch says.
Tin priceon the LME just breached USD39k/t. And the dollar has also strengthened against the RM. So this is a double catalyst to the share price. Once the Q4 results are out in Feb'22, MSC will likely be trading in the RM4-5 range.
next year 2022 will be MSC year....get boat before it spike new plant, ATH tin price, strong USD/weak ringgit triple catalyst will bring msc go up 90degree in monthly chart.
TIN- THE FIRST BASE METAL TO EXPERIENCE A PRICING SUPERCYCLE ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Tin has been described as the forgotten foot-soldier of the green energy transition. It's the metal that slips between the cracks and still doesn't attract nearly as much media coverage as lithium, nickel and copper.
But it is showing every sign of being the first to experience a pricing supercycle.
Demand has changed structurally from the days when most tin went into cans of long-life foods. The metal is literally hard-wired into all things electronic, opening up an ever broader spectrum of next-generation usage.
The energy transition and the so-called internet of things just ticks more boxes for tin use whether it be in electric vehicles, photovoltaic cells or 5G infrastructure.
Supply, by contrast, has been challenged to the point that the ITA estimates that the global refined tin market registered supply deficits in four out of the five years before 2020.
The official mining sector has suffered from decades of underinvestment and it is arguable that tin has avoided a supply crunch before now thanks only to artisanal finds.
Relying on chance discoveries by the informal sector is not a sustainable supply solution in any sense of the word.
The newly minted consensus among analysts is that tin pricing has to go super-cyclical to balance the market over the coming years.
Indonesia may stop tin exports in 2024, president says ------------------------------------------------ 24 Nov 2021
(Updated: 24 Nov 2021 01:44PM)
JAKARTA :Indonesia may stop tin exports in 2024 as part of efforts to attract investment into the resource processing industry and improve the country's external balance, President Joko Widodo said on Wednesday.
Tin price surges past $40,000 after Jakarta jolt ------------------------------------------------ MINING.COM Staff Writer | November 24, 2021 | 10:44 am
Intelligence Markets Asia Tin
Indonesia may stop tin exports in 2024 as part of its ambitions to attract investment into downstream processing and manufacturing in the Asian nation, President Joko Widodo said on Wednesday.
The news sent the metal, extensively used in the electronics sector, to a fresh record high with three-month contracts topping $40,000 a tonne for the first time ever. Prompt delivery of tin has traded at unprecedented premiums of more than $1,000 a tonne this year, indicating severe supply shortages in the cash market.
@fctitan....calvin has big headache if anyone invest in tin counter ...investors diversify their investment across many counters ie tin, palm technology reit ETF. It is too risky too put all in palm counters when ESG issue (forced labour...sime plt and fgv , supermax still struggling to clear it while topglove cleared after more than 1 year )is blowing.
"Tin stocks fall to multi-year lows as demand outstrips production" It is up more than 90% year-to-date -------------------------------------------------------------------------- By Tom Daly
Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tin prices have nearly doubled from a year ago and are on course for their biggest annual rise in over 30 years, stinging big users of the soldering agent such as electronics firms, utilities, solar panel makers and appliance manufacturers.
For automakers, which use tin in coatings, bearings, brake pads and batteries, the higher tin costs come on top of a semiconductor chip shortage and a spike in prices for aluminium and magnesium due to curbs on energy-intensive industries in China.
Tin, whose main use is as a solder, has outperformed other industrial metals in 2021, gaining over 90% on the London Metal Exchange (LME) . It is on course for its biggest annual rise since trading was relaunched in 1989, four years after the collapse of the International Tin Council forced a suspension.
It is up more than 90% year-to-date ----------------------------------------- LME tin surged past $40,000 a tonne for the first time last week, while in China, the world's biggest refined tin market, prices are up around 100% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this year.
"There are few places in the value chain which are not feeling the pain of a higher tin price," said CRU senior consultant Willis Thomas.
He added, however, that photovoltaics (PV) companies, which use solder ribbon to join solar cells, would likely be the most severely affected, since they have less opportunity to pass on added costs to their customers due to "red-hot price competition in PV panels."
Cui Lin, chief China representative at the International Tin Association (ITA), estimates tin demand from the PV industry will rise to about 15,000 tonnes this year, versus only 8,000 tonnes in 2019.
"The stock keeps decreasing, which has affected the price quite dramatically," she said.
Tin stocks fall to multi-year lows as demand outstrips production ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tin inventories in LME-registered warehouses slipped to their lowest since 1989 at the start of November and are currently at just 1,365 tonnes. ShFE stocks are near a five-year trough.
In Asia, Malaysia Smelting Corp (MSCB.KL), the world's third-biggest refined tin producer in 2020, declared force majeure on deliveries in June, while Indonesia is weighing a ban on tin exports from 2024. read more
"For tin specifically, supply disruption and low inventories have been the key theme for the last year," said Tom Mulqueen, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading (AMT) Ltd.
The ITA estimates global refined tin consumption will grow 7.2% in 2021, after slipping 1.6% to 361,900 tonnes last year as the pandemic disrupted global industries.
However, in some ways life under lockdown has been a boon for tin.
"Tin demand benefited substantially from the rapid transition to home working," Mulqueen said, pointing to higher spending on white goods and appliances that still use more tin-intensive circuit board technology, particularly in China, and demand for nonperishable goods packed in tinplate.
Tin Export Ban in Indonesia Likely to Upset Global Supply in the Long Run ----------------------------------------------------------------- Nov 24, 2021 15:03CSTSource:SMM
The news that Indonesia may stop tin exports in 2024 will have more impact on the tin industry in the long term.
SHANGHAI, Nov 24 (SMM) – The news that Indonesia may stop tin exports in 2024 will have more impact on the tin industry in the long term.
At present, the monthly exports of tin ingots in Indonesia average around 6,000 mt, and the annual exports stand at about 70,000-80,000 mt. The global demand for tin ingots is currently about 340,000 mt in 2021. If the tin ingots is banned from exporting in 2024, the increase in global supply outside of Indonesia will not be able to make up for the void in the market caused by the Indonesian policy, therefore the gap will be significantly expanded.
Global demand for Tin will be elevated for a very long time as Indonesia ( world’s 2nd largest producer of tin) may ban exportation of raw tin.
MSC Bhd will be a major beneficiary of this tight supply as MSC produces and also refines tin .
Their new state of the art Smelter in Pulau Indah will double their smelting capacity in a very cost effective manner- this will boost their smelting margins.
NB: this is a too high risk mkt now = only < 3% of all stocks on klse r uptrending. many r holding crap stocks now = that explains why 90% of players loss big money. b4 u text, what crap stocks r u having, paid with your hard earned money? +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ READ this carefully n deeply pls
EV.MATERIAL biz will grow by leaps n bounds every year continuously for decades...
So will be our a. EV.TECH stocks in mpi, d&o, inari b. EV.METAL stocks in msc, pmbtech, pmetal
these would be on the way as the fastest growing stocks on KLSE... 07/12/2021 12:11 PM
EV.METAL stocks r still yet to be discovered by our fund fraternity,, their growth rate is tremendous every yr n with certainty. EV.ECONOMY is making EV.METAL stocks the best multi bagger stocks in the history of msia,, 09/12/2021 4:20 AM
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
G-boy
501 posts
Posted by G-boy > 2021-11-13 14:32 | Report Abuse
the only tin stock in bursa and they looking for joint venture to expand their miNing activities..