Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-12-13 00:32 | Report Abuse

Price Correction practices pending GE announcement impact. P.S: Move earlier than the announcement tactics.

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-12-13 01:08 | Report Abuse

Aiyoh! Lots of KC Loh's chapter after so long! FYI, KC Loh is Jack Sparrow; Pirate of The Caribbean Island!

Posted by shirley1 > 2012-12-13 06:57 | Report Abuse

Namo is here !! Maybe he sense there is a race here soon. vroom, vroom...

Posted by aunloke > 2012-12-13 14:00 | Report Abuse

Buying this counter won't lose money , don't sell when it's down for its value won't drop, sell when the profit reaches your target, and if you set your target not too high you can achieve it easily. Of cause if you want the profit to be higher you may have to wait longer.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-13 14:10 | Report Abuse

aunloke, this is my strategy for time being barring any catalyst, in short still trading stocks.
But careful if Basir taking it private.

Posted by pradeep > 2012-12-13 14:25 | Report Abuse

I agree with you tonylim and if he does not take private still the value is there so not to worry.Bashir should be more worried then any of us

Posted by aunloke > 2012-12-13 14:37 | Report Abuse

I missed the last high for I thought something good was coming, anyway my ave. cost is still below 1.80 , even if it is taken private I think I still can make a little profit.

Posted by aunloke > 2012-12-13 14:43 | Report Abuse

Or may be I should allocate half for the trading.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-13 14:44 | Report Abuse

True aunloke, not to worry. Didnt I say you are a category 6 of Ooi teik bee's grading. You did the same with Multico right?

Ooi Teik should probably include another category to say " money in pocket is worth 2 in the bush" or " the market is always there"

Sorry if I offended anyone.

Just a case in point, last 2 days if I had gone in at 1.76-77 i can sell to probably at 1.81 yesterday or today. The problem is market volume to small.

From my experience, sometimes its hard to buy 10 big lots a day

Posted by aunloke > 2012-12-13 14:51 | Report Abuse

You are right Tony I should allocate half for the trading and put the money in the pocket first and let the other half growing.

Posted by fandi > 2012-12-13 15:03 | Report Abuse

I still think why Bahsir want to take Kfima private, if it is true.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-13 15:10 | Report Abuse

ya lor, KCloh will be good at this method since he expert in dealing with money exposure.

aunloke, follow market trend. Index at the corridors of all time high. Luckily it corrected to below 1600 last week.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-13 15:11 | Report Abuse

fandi, i suspect bashir family ni, haji bakek, worse than cina apek

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-12-13 17:08 | Report Abuse

Shirley1! Never race with Kfima. As observed Kfima is a solid engine for a long distance travelling. The analogy of this counter is: To place our racing car nicely in this long term save solid truck! That's Kfima!

Posted by fandi > 2012-12-14 11:52 | Report Abuse

Tony,as long as they can offer us a decent amount, I do not care what "pek" are them.....hi hi hi

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-14 12:35 | Report Abuse

singh is going for lunch.. prata with king cup sardins by KFIMA..and buying some extra sardins, king cup brand for 21-12-2012.. just in case of food shortages.. then dont ask me for some...

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-12-14 12:57 | Report Abuse

LOL! Bad choice! La la la...

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-14 13:15 | Report Abuse

Singh you can have my share

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-12-14 13:34 | Report Abuse

If there is an corporate exercise for the Basir family, I guess it would be best to take Fimacorp private and pay off the minority shareholders. Kfima has a cash of of 265 m. If Kfima takes FimaCorp private and pays off the minority shareholders (40%) with cash totalling 191 m, then all last year’s earnings of RM116 m of Kfima will belong to the equity holders of Kfima. This will boost the earnings per share of Kfima to 44 sen. The PE ratio of Kfima will be reduced to only 4.1, or an earnings yield of 24%. Isn’t that cheap? If Mr market gives a PE of 8 to Kfima then, it is worth RM3.28.

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-14 13:56 | Report Abuse

yeah@kcchongnz. good observation mate..

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-12-16 19:00 | Report Abuse

I have posted two simplistic methods to value Kfima, both yielding an intrinsic value of about RM4.00. Now we try a more acceptable method used by finance academician and many analysts, the discount cash flows method.
Financial theory postulated by John Burr Williams in his “The theory of investment value” says that the value of a stock is worth all of the future cash flows expected to be generated by the firm, discounted by an appropriate risk-adjusted rate.
Data
Earnings before interest and tax for 2012, 135 m
Cost of equity 10%, risk premium of 6% over the long-term MGS rate of 4%
Cost of debts 6%
Expected growth rate of net profit, 8% Vs CAGR of 16% for the last 7 years
Results
Value of firm, 1373.5 m
Value of debts, 23.0 m
Value of equity, 1350.5 m
Add excess cash, 270.6 m
Add other long-term investment 116 m
Total value of equity 1737 m
Less minority interest (30.6%) -531.8 m
Value of equity to shareholders 1205 m or RM4.50 per share
This kcchongnz must be crazy. Intrinsic value of Kfima at 4.50 while the market price is only 1.80? Yeah, some assumptions may be wrong. but the important thing is there is wide margin of safety which makes investing in Kfima a safe bet. This is only my opinion.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-12-16 19:32 | Report Abuse

Oop, need some clarifications on my assumptions. The expected growth rate is 8% for the next 5 years only, and then 3% subsequently. This is by far the most important assumption. I think my assumption is reasonable conservative in view of its business and its past growth rates. There is no point using a liberal assumption and obtain a high valuation, shiok sendiri only.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-16 19:33 | Report Abuse

This is where I appreciate kcchongnz at his calculation best! Don't waste time with yungshen1 please :)

Many thanks kcchongnz!

Posted by andy118 > 2012-12-16 20:04 | Report Abuse

Thanks kcchongnz. Very informative.

Posted by fandi > 2012-12-16 20:39 | Report Abuse

KC Chong, please do not comment more. You make me more difficult to collect Kfima below 1.80

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-12-17 08:52 | Report Abuse

fandi, don't worry, kfima's share price won't move much unless institutional investors get involved. Most institutional investors also have no mandate to invest in a small cap company with only 480 m market capitalization. Most local retail investors also have no interest in it because nobody goreng it. You have plenty of time to collect them. Don't be too calculative as to count just a few sen difference. But seriously when you look at kfima as a business, it has good diversified businesses. Most important of all, you can own part of this business at a very attractive price. As what Peter Lynch said in his book, "One Up Wall Street", this type of stock represents "a perfect stock". This is because when nobody is interested in it, then only you can buy at bargain price; also something Warren Buffet is good at. Actually I hate telling people which stock is good to invest because one can never be sure your analysis is right or not. But for Kfima, I can say it is really selling at very good bargain price. As whether the share price will go up or not in the near future, I really don't know. But I think given time, and if kfima continues to perform in its business which I think it will, some days people, including institutional investors will realize it.

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 08:55 | Report Abuse

yep@Kcchongnz.. you are right.. so dont worry fandi...Kcchongnz is telling us how valuable this company is.. he has good intentions...so we got to respect him for that.. not many people here have those motives.. most here are just selfish, greedy and play or talk politics..good on you kcchongnz.. talk more about kfima...you have valuable info we all can use...thanks for sharing..

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 10:41 | Report Abuse

oi Kfima show me the magic too la.. oi wake up...

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 11:01 | Report Abuse

kfima kfima kfima .....oi oi oi...

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 11:08 | Report Abuse

come to Kfima read up.. read up.. good stock good stock.. read up read up...

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 11:09 | Report Abuse

side trend, up trend, down trend, any trend.. good stock ..good stock...come of KFima read up read up

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 15:13 | Report Abuse

kfima kfima kfima oi oi oi

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 15:17 | Report Abuse

OK fat cat tim buddy

Posted by fandi > 2012-12-17 15:20 | Report Abuse

DaveSingh you stop promotinglah, I q whole morning 1.79 cannot get !2#4%^&**(*(0

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 15:21 | Report Abuse

sorry@fandi...i am just being honest with good intentions.. i am not promoting anything la..

Posted by fandi > 2012-12-17 15:23 | Report Abuse

Dave Singh, you can promote but quietly lah...I have no chance to collect morelah !@@#$$$%$%^^&&&*&*

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 15:24 | Report Abuse

fandi you will in time.. relax.. this is a sharing site.. must not be selfish and greedy please fandi..

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 16:11 | Report Abuse

KFIMA KFIMA KFIMA...oi oi oi..

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 16:17 | Report Abuse

lucky you have been around for tens of years.. i dont need to worry about that story..

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 16:17 | Report Abuse

my kfima...muah

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-17 16:23 | Report Abuse

if i buy at rm1.8.. and every year gives me dividend with constant increase in dividend. i can assume next year will be up too. so this year 8 cents.. next year 10 cents.. that makes WOW more than 5% yield ah??? wow.. no wander fandi wants to buy it.. ok fandi i wont promote this anymore i am out of here.. sorry MR FANDI

Posted by Ram Cheong > 2012-12-17 16:47 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz , u are really good , thanks for the clear calculation , like it . ............

Posted by pradeep > 2012-12-17 22:32 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, I have to salute you, you are a genteleman your calculation is perfect.

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-19 12:28 | Report Abuse

anyhow i am off for lunch.. prata and sardines (king cup brand) by Kfima...YUMMY...HIDUP KFIMA HIDUP KFIMA

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-19 12:29 | Report Abuse

long live KFIMA, long live KFIMA.>>>>singh has left the house..

Posted by minitrader > 2012-12-19 12:30 | Report Abuse

long live singh...hehehe

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-19 13:53 | Report Abuse

Mabuk singh has left the house and the spell.
Suay chanting

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-19 13:53 | Report Abuse

Singh, how many lots you holding now?

Posted by davesingh > 2012-12-19 14:00 | Report Abuse

Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who abuse you. To one who strikes you on the cheek, offer the other also....

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-19 16:28 | Report Abuse

singh, stop your chanting la