i know all the facts. Facts is Tyyap asked us to sell before tun m back from china. Please tell story with facts. I still earned 10% in annjoo in just a few days and Muda 20% in just a few days.
Chinese steel demand firm on 2H infrastructure investments.
Higher ASP to fuel earnings momentum domestically.
Major issues and conclusions We recommend overweighting steel given Chinese production cuts in winter and re-stocking demand around the Lunar New Year holiday. Chinese steel production did not fall in the previous winter season as a whole because of robust demand and earnings; however, they still fell in November and December. In both 2016 and 2017, steel shares far outperformed the KOSPI during the earlier stages of Chinese output cuts. Strengthening 3Q18 earnings momentum amid ASP hikes also bode well for shares. Rising rebar dealer prices and plate ASP hikes are worth noting, which are driven by the closing gap between imported and domestic steel prices. Our top picks are POSCO (NYSE:PKX), Hyundai Steel (earnings to grow from 3Q), and Dongkuk Steel.
Steel shares outperformed KOSPI during winter production cut period
We believe it is now time to increase positions in steel shares for the following reasons: First, we expect sentiment over steel stocks to peak going forward given Chinese production cuts expected in winter and re- stocking demand around the Lunar New Year holiday. When production fell in the 2016-2017 winter seasons, the steel sector index far outperformed the KOSPI and we expect to see a repeat in 2018. From Nov 15, 2016 to Jan 19, 2017 (when the production cut was most severe), the sector index advanced 10% while the KOSPI gained 5%. Similarly, from Nov 15, 2017 to Jan 12, 2018, the sector index climbed 16%, far outperforming the KOSPI which dipped 0.8%. We note that at the beginning of the production reduction period, production cuts were most severe (negative growth in Nov-Dec, 2017) and stock momentum was the strongest (in the previous two winter seasons, shares peaked in mid-Jan). Accordingly, we recommend adding to positions before production cuts begin. This year, Chinese steel production cuts are expected to last from Oct 1 until Mar 31 next year, longer than the previous year when reductions sustained from Nov 15, 2017 to Mar 15, 2018.
Review of result is based on YoY, How to compare Q1 to end of year which has longer shutdown days as well as different seasonal performance for certain counter...
Based on the QR, it seems like SSTEEL is much better than ANNJOO.. Salute to Hong Leong Group Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan, he is really good in cost controlling compare to other.
But anyway, ANNJOO has the highest inventory, so as long as the current steel price higher than the price on 30 June, it is a bonus for Annjoo.
This will unlikely affect just Annjoo. Masteel and Lionind might take another round of beating together tomorrow. The question is whether ssteel will be spared or even go up slightly given that their management was doing much better compared to Annjoo which is supposed to have an edge over material cost.
Just speaking my personal objectively. No offense or intention to talk down any counter. I’m also in long steel together with you all.
Can view this objectively then only can device a good strategy...
I dont think it will drop much tomorrow, on the basis that insider already knew about this quarter result and share price has been dropped from RM3.00++ to RM1.9++, everything has been reflected in the share price d.
I guess tomorrow share price might drop a bit, maybe 10sen, mostly sell by small fish, then the old bird will start collecting.
AnnJoo's poor earnings in this quarter was also impacted by forex loss and relatively higher effective rate, otherwise, the core EPS should be higher and comparable with Q2FY17, albeit it is still much lower than preceding quarter. Well, poorer earnings QoQ was expected. Its stock price has plunged 49% since beginning of 2018, so I suppose all the negatives have factored into its current stock price. The Apr-Jun'18 quarter was also impacted by Ramadan holidays and hence lower construction activities. We should see some improvement in Apr-July'18 quarter. This quarter could be the worst quarter for AnnJoo.
It's stock price should come further down tomorrow as people will react to today's result, but should not be gap down.
2Q2018 profit before tax (before foreign exchange gain/loss) was comparable to the corresponding quarter of preceding year (“2Q2017”). 2Q2018 incurred net forex loss of RM4.49 million compared with 2Q17 net forex gain of RM2.78 million. Market conditions were affected by temporary demand softness due to seasonal factors (Raya period) and weak market sentiment since the dissolution of Parliament.
Due to forex factor itself already resulted in a RM7.27 million decrease in profit.
Next two coming quarter remaining RED. Better run before got cheated again by the runner dog khatulisatiwa 1234. Now very busy carry and jilat KYY balls in Lionins.
After the previous QR announcement on 25-May-2018, the stock price dropped a lot despite of the NP's being up 10.67% QoQ, so the bad QR published today has been already priced in.
15 PROSPECTS The Group’s views on international and domestic demand-supply dynamics are: a. Trade frictions across US, China and EU create global economic uncertainty, currency and interest rate volatility, and temporary supply-demand distortions in the steel export markets. b. Higher steel tariffs on Turkey is causing it to divert part of its exports from US/EU to Southeast Asia. The plunge of the Turkish Lira further adds to its competitiveness in exports. c. Malaysia’s demand remains soft amidst the current government’s review on infrastructure spending. However, there is potential greater cost-efficiency in infrastructure projects to spur construction activity and steel demand in the mid/long-term. d. China’s ongoing production curtailment program and continued infrastructure requirements should support its domestic demand at a relatively high price level and moderate its exports. e. ASEAN’s expected steel demand growth of 5-6% p.a., which is expected to surpass 80 million tonnes by 2019 (source: SEAISI) should support export opportunities in this region. Historically, two-thirds of Southeast Asia’s steel requirements were met by imports.
Despite the above, regional steel markets are still very sizeable in comparison to the Group’s capacity. Being one of the lowest cost producers of construction steel in the region, the Group is confident that it remains price competitive in the export markets. As such, the Group expects to increase its proportion of export sales amidst lacklustre near-term domestic demand.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
fionayip
27 posts
Posted by fionayip > 2018-08-22 02:59 | Report Abuse
aikssshhhh~~~ tyyap gang they all run already lah, don't dream they still here. U all should run