ALR definitely link to goverment la.. otherwise Gamuda wont entertain them if not come with guarantee fund to show on the table for the offer. There is no such thing after getting all the necessary approval only come to tell you sorry I unable to raise fund. Nobody will entertain this kind of offer unless is from goverment. To raise 5b from goverment is easy job. As 2invest said, the most important is EGM result. Since PNB is allowed to vote, the deal most likely will go through.
when alr made the takeover offer for litrak, it would have used a discount rate to value litrak's assets right? isn't that discount rate tied to the sukuk? if alr used 5% to value litrak's cash flow but the sukuk investors require 6%, then alr has to go back to litrak with a new, lower offer using the 6% discount rate isn't it?
seriously if Litrak cannot raise the sukuk...there is no problem...Gov just extend the concession period. This has been done a Thousand time. Gov donT have to tell anybody now but after 5--10years when economy gets better..they will point out there is a micro small print at the bottom of the page that say.....
80gram, yes alr is supposed to announce the finalisation of the sukuk on 24 June. what interest rate, who gets the allocation etc. not that 24 june is d-day, +- 1-2weeks is fine. but if 2 weeks past 24 june still cannot finalise, means there are some problems. as i expect, it will be an interest rate problem. investors will demand around 6% rate and ALR will come back to litrak to reduce the takeover offer. then litrak can carry out the EGM to approve.
ok pg 7 of the 8jun announcement says ALR estimates their interest rate to be 5%. with this rate that they anticipated earlier, i am 90% certain that the offer price will be reduced but it won't be that much. maybe 10-20sen per share, which is still definitely higher than the current share price.
Why do you think WACC of 5% for ALR is not possible ? ************ csan
ok pg 7 of the 8jun announcement says ALR estimates their interest rate to be 5%. with this rate that they anticipated earlier, i am 90% certain that the offer price will be reduced but it won't be that much. maybe 10-20sen per share, which is still definitely higher than the current share price.
No u-turn to offer again for a lower price,main-main ke? Unless call off the deal,but I don't think so, can't find a good reason to call off the deal at this stage just because the interest..the rate hikes have been expected. Bank Negara announced rate hike in May but they still go ahead in Jun
Syarikat Mengurus Air Banjir & Terowong Sdn Bhd (SMART) is among four highway concessionaires in Klang Valley to be acquired by Amanat Lebuhraya Rakyat Berhad (ALR) as part of the government’s plan to restructure Malaysia’s highway sector, as announced on 4 April 2022. While RAM’s cashflow assessment for this review is based on the Sukuk’s current repayment profile and SMART’s prevailing Construction and Concession Agreement (CCA), it is highly likely that the Sukuk will be fully redeemed over the next few months, considering the advanced stage of the sale of SMART to ALR.
As of end-April 2022, supplemental concession agreements (SCAs) had been inked to facilitate ALR’s buyout of the concession companies and is conditional upon the successful fulfillment of the SCAs’ condition precedents, including the concessionaires’ shareholders acceptance of the acquisition offers. The SCAs extend the tenures of the concessions, freeze toll rate hikes and cease government compensation for non-revision of rates. Meanwhile, terms of the draft share sale and purchase agreements have been finalised and are currently pending execution. Nevertheless, our analysis is based on the remote possibility that the ALR transaction fails to materialise and the existing CCAs remain in effect.
as expected, almost 1 week now and still no announcement of alr sukuk issuance. if nothing by 8 july, that means cannot meet the target completion date of 31 July since 21 days notice needed for EGM. i still expect the deal to go thru but at lower price.
only "scan" is interested in "target Completion" and all eventhough he doesnT own a single share ( atleast he didnT say how many shares he has Or what is his vested Interest ). We just drink Coffee and eat biscuit at Gamuda and KPS
I watch a repeat( tonite) on TV1, in an interview--- senior Gov officer confirmed ALR takeover Gamuda Highway is a done deal. He expects Gamuda EGM soon. Maybe announcement tomolo
IronShirt, lol don't talk like a small boy. Talk about facts like mgs yield, discount rate etc. You, me and everyone in this forum can't influence the share price of something as big as Litrak. Only EPF and some directors can.
csan small boy jumping to conclusions about share ownership ________________________
So i assume you are a "senior citizen". Stock Market is not suitable for you. We move very fast. I cannot guide you across the Road every-time you get stuck on the road side. You should spend more time checking MayBank FD rate.
The best part is Litrak said they will pay whole amount from the reserves of the company and the proceeds from the disposal. This means that even the profits for 2022 from the business before the sales complete. FUYOH extra money!!!
you still have ignored the fact that ALR has not been able to raise any money 2 weeks after their 24 July deadline. you're unable to address this issue but instead deflected to my supposed "non-ownership" of shares hahaha. plus the Gamuda EGM is clear in that they said "subject to fulfilment of conditions" by ALR lol
infact 20 to 40bp (5 to 10%) lower than peak in end March 2022. ALR is gonna make more and end concession earlier if they go to market to raise the Bonds now.
Is it safe to switch my money from FD to buy Litrak to get better return. If they give back 5.08 and I buy at 4.80. My return is 5.54% in less than a year?
They are not comparable. You have to weigh the risk versus reward. FD return is guaranteed. When was the last time a Malaysian bank failed to honor its FD commitment? Even if the bank fails, depositors are covered up to RM250,000. On the other hand, it's not uncommon for such deals to fall through for a variety of reasons. The arbitrage trade is not without risk. Gamuda and Litrak have just announced to extend deadline by 1 month. Even though I'm quite confident that the deal will go through eventually, I've sold off some shares to lock in profit.
Notwithstanding the extension of the deadline for execution above, the Board aspires to execute the Definitive Agreements on or before 5 August 2022. __________________________________
Extend another month, But trying to execute deal by 5 Aug 2022
speakup also sold some LItrak just in case deal dont go thru. but keep some for deal go thru
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Posted by Good2harvest > 2022-06-17 23:13 | Report Abuse
ALR definitely link to goverment la.. otherwise Gamuda wont entertain them if not come with guarantee fund to show on the table for the offer. There is no such thing after getting all the necessary approval only come to tell you sorry I unable to raise fund. Nobody will entertain this kind of offer unless is from goverment. To raise 5b from goverment is easy job. As 2invest said, the most important is EGM result. Since PNB is allowed to vote, the deal most likely will go through.