KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s furniture exports are expected to grow by 8% exceeding RM10 billion this year, a stronger pace compared with 4.1% to RM9.5 billion last year, thanks to the recent ban on rubberwood exports, according to Malaysian Furniture Council (MFC) president Chua Chun Chai.
The exports of RM10 billion are nearly two-thirds of the RM16 billion target of the Malaysian Timber Industry Board’s National Timber Industry Policy (Natip) 2009-2020.
“Given the rise in furniture exports from January to April 2017 at 6% or RM3.3 billion, exports are likely to expand with the US being the largest market,” he said.
In comparison with the corresponding four-month period last year, exports were at RM3.1 billion, said Chua, adding that the US contributed RM1 billion or 32.4% of the exports in the first four months in 2016, and the amount has grown to RM1.1 billion, accounting for 34.9% of Malaysia’s total furniture exports.
According to the statistics from the international trade and industry ministry, furniture exports charted a compound annual growth rate of about 3.5% between 2012 and 2016.
“The world economy is growing. World Bank growth forecast is at 4% to 5% after the 2008 downturn. The US has become the engine of growth [again], taking over China.
“At the same time, our traditional markets such as Australia, Japan, Singapore, the UK and Middle East can expand from 3% to 5%. We expect the emerging markets to grow about 20% year-on-year,” he said.
India grew at 24.2% with a value of RM123.8 million between January and April this year, a huge leap from 3.2% growth with RM99.6 million in value in the corresponding period last year, as it saw a boost in demand from the middle-income group that is expanding there now.
“Exports to the Philippines also jumped by 16.6% to RM58.2 million in the first four months this year from a 1.6% growth a year ago,” he said.
Labour shortage remains a concern
The rubberwood export ban was quite a big relief among furniture makers.
Earlier this year, the shortage in rubberwood pushed up the price of rubberwood by 45% to RM2,100 per tonne compared with RM1,450 a year ago, which was a major worry to the sector, Chua said.
On July 2, the government banned the export of rubberwood, which is expected to lift a cap on local furniture makers’ earnings growth.
“The government’s ban on rubberwood export was timely and effective to ensure the sustainability of raw materials for the furniture industry.
“The ban on rubberwood export would ensure sustainable supply to the furniture industry to achieve Natip’s RM16 billion target,” Chua said.
However, Chua said the growth in furniture exports could be strong at a double-digit rate if there is no labour shortage, among other challenges.
“If we are allowed to employ five foreign workers for one local employee (5:1), we can expand faster but the home ministry wants to stick to the 3:1 ratio,” he added.
Chua said prior to the export ban, China-based companies imported plenty of rubberwood, which was considerably cheap to them due to a weak ringgit, leaving Malaysian furniture makers with little supply.
“Malaysia wants to have a balanced policy by keeping the upstream players including the rubberwood sawn timber mills happy instead of helping the downstream value-added furniture industry.
“But Malaysia can export a quota of 100,000 cubic metres of rubberwood which would generate a total revenue of RM200 million to RM300 million. However, we hope the government would consider reducing the quota to 40,000 cubic metres,” he said.
Investing more in automation
Chua acknowledges that automating the furniture sector is slow as it involves high cost but Malaysian manufacturers are starting to raise their capital expenditure for technology investment.
Beginning last year, he said, MFC members have claimed they would spend about 5% of their profit to automate operations gradually.
“That would help grow the business and reduce labour but we still have to depend on foreign labour. If the government stops the intake of foreign labour, then the local furniture industry will go downhill. We don’t have a way to make furniture with only machines as some jobs need to be done by human beings like sanding and painting,” he said.
He explained most of the furniture is non-wood-based, therefore it would require a set to be put together physically.
“Wood is less than 30% of a piece of furniture; the other components are fabric, leather, the design, metal parts and lamination.
“Furniture is a lifestyle now, so elements of design and personality come from different materials, not just wood only,” Chua added.
Despite the challenging operating environment, Chua stressed that the furniture sector is not a sunset business as long as labour and raw materials are secured. However, the cost of doing business in Malaysia is rising, which could result in manufacturers moving to elsewhere for cheaper costs.
I think KYY was partially responsible for the stagnation in price over the past year. Price couldnt go up because he kept selling down his millions of shares. At the same time he is not willing to depress it too much. So he had to release his stock gradually. Now it is finally flying because roadblock has been removed.
I really doubt KYY has that many shares left. Look at the trend. Crazy green candlesticks for so many days. This means that roadblock has been removed and the price can increase organically
Ok optimus, that was an outdated announcement in bursa. KYY had since disposed more of his shares to <5% of total liihen shares and as such no longer a substantial securities holder. From that point onwards, there is no need to declare whenever he sell. So how do you come to the conclusion of 5 mil shares?
I think he has sold all the remaining shares in June, July and the first few days of Aug.....he is not the type to keep a very small stake because it will be too insignificant for him to get any "kick" out of it. He needs something like kopi 0 kaw kaw!
So over the medium term it could rise to prospective PE 15 value before correcting to fair value ie PE11 to PE12 before the next review. My 2 sen worth personal view...i stand to be corrected....dear people.
Expect 6 sen/shr for 2nd Interim dividend (19 Aug earnings call) as EPS for Q2 is more than 12 sen, else will vote against prt sale of factories sites fr directors...
As geopolitical tension sparks from US, most of the counters are experiencing free-fall situation as spooked investors seek safe heaven commodities and currencies while staying away from stocks and bonds. Most counters today experienced a dip.
Whereas for Liihen and similar counters, strong fundamentals and financials will prove to be an important point as it will be the main resistance driver. This resistance will in turn push the counter back up when it dips badly. Whereas it can be resilient enough to hold its ground it will be up to other external factors such as share dropping by significant players.
For myself, another good chance to buy into several counters. So, prep your cash and trade wisely. Good luck peeps.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Victor Tan
117 posts
Posted by Victor Tan > 2017-08-04 17:02 | Report Abuse
TP RM 7