Is it a good news or bad news ? Well, it looks this will definitely benefit non-Vietnamese manufacturer like Lii Hen after taking the confirmed tariff rate increase lately. I believe more orders will flow into Asian other than Vietnam. Lii Hen will stand to win as it is one of the biggest furniture factories in Malaysia (even bigger than Poh Huat Malaysia operation). the latest audited Poh Huat Malaysia sales recorded at RM278 mil while Lii Hen sales recorded at RM801 mil, more than double of Poh Huat. Let's analyse the profit...Poh Huat Malaysia PBT was at RM31 mil (11%) while Lii Hen was at RM73 mil (9%). Despite a recent weakness in profit margin, I believe Lii Hen will benefit in long term due to economic of scale. On the other hand, Poh Huat could be lose out due to more uncertainty in the Vietnam (on being labeled as currency manipulator + competition with Chinese factory companies in Vietnam).
Another plus point for Lii Hen was its 45% dividend payout rate (or 14.5 sen in FY2018) against rather uncertain dividend payout of 31% (or 6 sen in FY2018) for Poh Huat. Yield wise, Lii Hen stands to win at 5.56% against 3.92% (as at 10/5 closing). I did not include Latitude in this discussion because Latitude is very "stingy" in dividend payout. Given current market uncertainty, cash / dividend is king !
Conclusion: if you ever invested/ exposed in export furniture stocks, switch to Lii Hen, and (you know what to do lah)
You can clearly see that today is mostly a panic selling event. I would understand investors selling companies that might be negatively affected by the trade war like palm plantation business (due to pressure from soya price), but for the furniture industries, they are basically a clear beneficiaries of the trade war between US and China.
For those that are not aware, US has imposed a 10% tariff on all furniture coming from China back in mid 2018. Given that China represent 65% of the total import of furniture into US (amounting to around USD30bil), US importers have since tried to mitigate the risk from tariff by starting to diversify their supply chain to other countries. The biggest beneficiaries is still Vietnam but Malaysian furniture companies with existing US customer based also benefited. Lii Hen which export 85% of its products to the US is actually one of the main beneficiaries. Now since last Friday, this 10% tariff had gone up to 25% which just means that US furniture importers will only try to diverse their supply chain even more.
Another point for Lii Hen (and other furniture companies with exposure to the US market) would be the strengthening of USD vs RM. For Liihen since the sales are recorded in USD and most of the cost items are in RM (factory located in Muar), this would only mean that the profit margins is expected to increase further.
Investors should expect a big jump in profit for the 1Q19 result to be out this month.
Please do your research first before deciding to sell your position as not all companies in Bursa Malaysia will be affected by the tariff war and in some cases like furniture industry, they are actually beneficiaries of this.
Bought some at today. Positive outlook on stock:- 1) USD/MYR - MYR depreciated vs USD should lift this stocks 2) US - CHina Trade war impact should have positive impact on stocks 3) Dividend Yield is high >3.5% will reduce any risk of further stock price fall. 4) High roe of 18%
Welcome onboard hellbender. Yes, let's ride it. Not to forget foreign worker levy reduced. Liihen paid additional 3M last year. There will be saving in 2019 and increase its profitability. Hopefully gov will review come next year and extend again if the country debt gets to manageable level.
I dont have proper TA skills.. but it's based on my experience and observation. Liihen got solid support at RM2.7. As long as fundamental and performance doesn't get worse , the risk is actually quite little at this price. Just keep it and receive dividend, while waiting for the next waive of uptrend. This is what I called undefeatable.
Trade wars getting hotter it seems. Hopefully, everyone will start to notice Liihen. If the upcoming QR showing good revenue growth again, this is the safe place to park the money near term.
profit doubled man... This is very excellent results. Their 1Q results was based on RM/USD of RM4.09. Now is at least RM4.19.... i think 2Q should be even better unless got unexpected losses?
Lii Hen 1Q19 revenua and profit growth mainly comes from the strengthening of USD vs RM. The sales growth in USD terms from US was only 3%. This would mean that it has yet to benefit from US furniture companies moves to diversify away from China to mitigate risks relating to the tariff war. Given the recent increase of tariff from 10% to now 25%, i am hoping that Lii Hen could get some of the spill over affects from the diversification strategies by the US companies ( main beneficiaries will still be Vietnam based furniture companies). Any improvement of sales volume from US should be seen in 3Q19.
That being said, with RM continuing to depreciate vs USD, investors should expect Lii Hen to deliver another quarterly earnings growth in 2Q19.
At the current share price the company is currently being valued at only 7.5x PE. Cheap considering this is a company that have been consistently paying high dividend (relative to other furniture business) to its shareholders.
Congrats to all. Hold on to it tightly. After all, there is only 180M shares. :) minus out the dividend, your entry before the rebound is much lower. Cheers.
With the current weakening RM/USD and trade war btw China and US, Liihen is expected to secure higher turnover than FY2018 which turning into better profits and dividends this year.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
RainT
8,448 posts
Posted by RainT > 2019-05-10 12:30 | Report Abuse
all look good for LIIHEN