Malaysian furniture industry benefiting from US-China trade war
On the four-day MIFF 2019 that ended today, Goi said there was positive response from both buyers and exhibitors throughout the event.
She said based on pre-registration figures, the number of buyers from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and even Mexico actually increased by 50 percent compared with last year.
She said there was a rise in the number of new buyers during the latest fair, particularly from Romania, Japan and China.
A big portion of the sales actually comes from the export market with US and Canada being the largest market ( 77% of total sales in FY18). Malaysia market only represent 7.2%.
In terms of valuation the company is currently trading at a PE multiple of only 8x.
I think investors should expect higher profit in FY19 vs FY18 given the higher demand from the US market since the start of the trade war between US and China (US had imposed a 10% tariff on furniture coming from China since Sept 2018).
Profit margins for 1Q19 should be better compared to 1Q18 mainly due to the more favorable forex. RM/USD averages at around 4.09 in 1Q19 vs 3.92 in 1Q18.
Buy buy. I just bought today after looking at its annual report. The revenue is growing yoy as can be seen from the summary from i3 financials. With only 180M shares, and revenue continued to grow for the last 10 years, I see no reason why people should be fearful. :)
Nice that the management changed the name "special dividend" to "interim dividend", most of the website and institution will ignore the special dividend when calculate the dividend yield. Now with share price RM2.69, dividend yield is 5.39%, which is very attractive.
Can anyone guarantee what will the world be in the next 10 years? Not even from the greatest companies like Apple, Microsoft, Berkshire..
Instead of worrying about recession, why not investing in those companies with sound management and fundamental that will survive in any of the worst market condition?
Found the answer on the impact of the levy. Based on its aannual report, liihen paid additional 3M for the increased levy. Hence, there wi'll be savings for 2019 and improve its profitability. Cheers.
Given that the US is the biggest market for Lii Hen, the recent trade war has actually somewhat help the company gain more customers as a lot of US furniture companies are looking to diversify their supply chain away from China. In 2018, 54% of furniture imports into the US still come from China. This provides ample opportunities for furniture companies like Lii Hen to grow their revenue base going forward.
I am expecting 1Q19 to show improvement in earnings to take into account the higher sales from US, better forex rate and low raw material costs (rubberwood fiberboard especially). Using a target profit of RM65mil in FY19, the company is currently trading at a PE of only 7.3x.
Another company that will also benefit from these would be Latitude Tree. The main difference between the 2 companies is that Lii Hen is mainly based in Muar while Latitud main production is located in Vietnam. However, Lii Hen is a bit better in terms of stability of earnings and cash flow generation hence why probably it is trading at a slight premium to Latitude.
Both companies are expected to post better result in FY19.
It will. Trade war is never easy. China has grown so big and everyone is fighting for a piece of it; especially technology. Takes time and US will continue to flex muscle and non China manufacturer will benefit.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stock_investor
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Posted by stock_investor > 2019-03-06 18:24 | Report Abuse
Liihen is falling sharp after reaching top. Support 2.6 next support 2.4 third support 2.2. Happy trading.