haha...look at the volume. who is selling/buying? all the small ikan bilis here only. It's funny that most of you here are super inexperienced but lucky to be here because of divvy you wont lose much la. If you know how to wait you will be happy to pick up at RM3.1 and lower within the next 8-12months :)
Kuku 😜 opps typo. CooCoo big buaya lo, we all juz tiny bilis only la. Beginner's luck ma, jealous ar?????🤣 We inexperienced one ma, Tell us lah why OVERVALUED??? Please teach bilis how to evaluate ma, since u r the EXPERIENCED ONE.😁
899 you typo too much ma-ma. what jealous? open market, anyone can buy sell. same here it is open forum, anyone can give their opinion. i am just cautioning many fellow retail investors (not traders) here that do not get caught in this "value trap"....if you want to buy now and sell at RM3.9 ot RM4 for a quick buck, good for you. but if you looking to invest long term....this is not the time to go in.. i do not need to teach, go and do you own analysis and you will understand. anyways, my views is based on my experience, you figure out what is best for you. I already stated my fair price and position that i will go in at. which i will...within the next 52W.
I believe the market is rerating this company since the expiring of pioneer status only affect the bottom line a little. The company still able to grow their revenue despite sluggish world economy. Also, I think there might be window dressing effect this year. Anyway, cheers to all shareholder. 😄😄😄
@899 - you last comment is very spot on and I appreciate it. Indeed, market rerating UCHI could be the reason for the mean price to hover around 3.5 in next coming months. First time i see you post so constructively with maturity in the tone. Let’s keep this forum that way so we continue to find value by sharing constructive ideas.Thank you.
@899 - but just be mindful when you say “market” because the volumes are razor thin which to me is NOT reflective of the market. What i see happening is the BIG fish is slowly offloading at this high valuations to us ikan bills…once they stop, 3.3 is almost certain. I have been a shareholder of UCHI since 2012…there is no window dressing here. This is mainly because of CD.
Fundamental first, then price follow. Unless Uchi QR4 prospect says 2024 revenue down, then, sure will go down or market crash. In 2023 QR1 they mentioned revenue flat, QR3 they informed revenue growth in Hi teen, I believe the rest you can do the math.😄
Aiyoyo, CooCoo talk kuku again. 😁 Don't know how to read QR ar?😅 Really hopeless!!! No wonder cannot show how valuation calculation. Talk from AS ar or think from AS?😁😂🤣 Go do you homework then only talk. Not even interested to read QR but want to have constructive discussion with other ppl. FU😡 Don't just come here to try to act as 'exipert' but actually just try to fish for info.😆🤣🤣
Wow….899 so abusive and personal. I wonder what is up your behind that makes you so aggressive. I am not an expert. I repeat, it’s an open forum and anyone can comment, don’t agree is ok, no need to get personal.
Anyways, if this valuation is not high, i wonder why all the directors are selling (exercising the options) at this level.
Dividend - so far this year paid 8, now going to give 9…final surely 10. Bottom line, all happy. Peace Out :)
End of the day, i see that it’s me against 3 of you. I say that this is high valuation and expect price to correct to 3.3 levels or lower. ‘You all are bullish and saying this is good price to go in and are expecting 4+’ Well let’s see.
Kuku, don't simply open your big mouth. I never recommend ppl to buy. I juz stated the fact that base on 3rd QR info, you can know the Revenue and do an estimation on Q4 profit. You juz want to open your big mouth n talk without fact, so how can it be constructive???? Show your calculation to prove that I'm wrong on Q4 estimate lo. I know, you bought this company in 2012 but already sold all. Now want to buy back is it???? So talk bad about this company is it? Hope price will drop to 3.1 ar????? Below was kuku's posting in January. So who is abusive n who talk nonsense????? 😆😂🤣🤣.
2023-01-16 11:04 | Report Abuse
899 you are just fly here. tkss. RM2.35~2.5 is what I THINK the market will price Uchi given the factors i listed above. Just my estimate as Mr Market can be bearish given that Uchi has no other growth drivers (unless you know something I dont) Anyways...no one understands Mr Market truly, and I could be wrong. Maybe fly up to RM5?
What show calculation? U want to learn? I dont think so, KNN ...you just want to mock at people. bugger off! Calculate yourself....CCB
899 - ok. please dont confuse the matter. i think the argument here is this - you say that Uchi is under priced and has more headroom....to go beyond RM4..maybe RM5.
I say that at current valuations it is overpriced and will normalised to RM3.3 or lower...based on the latest earnings trend.
As a whole, i will still comment to ask all to pay attention to the average volume. Which is very thin. this means this so-called "rally" will not last. secondly, pay attn that all the directors and substantial shareholders are selling (exercising the options) at this valuation....must be they also know this is high already!
KuKu, don't talk KOK!!!! I never say Uchi under or overvalue. I just point out the obvious. Revenue hi single digit growth. All data already given in QR, you or anyone can just calculate and decide themself whether is under or over value.
Are you sure the substantial shareholders are selling????? Is selling = exercising the option??? So I'm right, you use your kuku to think. Maybe use you kuku to read also😆😂🤣 Go read the announcement again. You never really follow the company, that's why dun know head or tail??? Talk only. Name value investor, now talk technical lo, volume thin lo.... Of course after a rally, price will correct, that's normal. The only way price crash is due to market crash or Uchi forecast next year sales drop. I'll stop here. waste time talking to this type of pretender.
899 - obvious we do not get along and since you are all out to call names and raise your BP. I do not need your to agree or understand my POV. It is good that you decided to quit as it is you are wasting your time…..i will also pretend from now on that you do not exist here, and ignore all comments from you after this. But will continue to say whatever i feel like in this forum, it’s a free world. Get Out of my way.
@Ooihk899, will the exercise of 80,000,000 shares UCHITEC-CQ warrants (exercise price RM 3.30) before 28th Dec create enormous pressure to the share price? If share price is above RM 3.30 it is almost certain that the warrant holders will exercise the warrant to convert it into ordinary shares and very likely they will just sell the shares to realise the gain right? Because if they are happy to hold the shares they would have bought the shares at lower price level before this. Is my unerstanding correct? Following the exercise of the warrant the EPS will be diluted. I like Uchi but I do not like frequent ESOS and warrant issue that dilute the EPS.
@Ooihk899, will the exercise of 80,000,000 shares UCHITEC-CQ warrants (exercise price RM 3.30) before 28th Dec create enormous pressure to the share price? If share price is above RM 3.30 it is almost certain that the warrant holders will exercise the warrant to convert it into ordinary shares and very likely they will just sell the shares to realise the gain right? Because if they are happy to hold the shares they would have bought the shares at lower price level before this. Is my unerstanding correct? Following the exercise of the warrant the EPS will be diluted. I like Uchi but I do not like frequent ESOS and warrant issue that dilute the EPS.
Bro, that's call warrant. No conversion. They have been doing ESOS for years. Do you see the share price go down? ESOS is good as it help retained good employee. Important is the company's fundamental n management's integrity. If got both, no need to worry about share price. It will take itself.
I observe it is in uptrend for quite long. But along the way there are many corrections when the share price touches temporary peak. I think at this price level I would rather wait for the next quarter report before making any decision.
I did read these report. My understanding is that the call warrant will dilute the shares by 5% on 28th Dec and therefore the EPS and dividend per share will also dilute by 5%. I think that is the main reason of recent correction when EPF (suspected seller) factor in this effect. I would not have discovered this until I read your comment regarding to Uchitec-CQ . In addition to that, USD will turn weak next week where Hong Leong IB predict USD exchange rate to be as low as 4.30 by end of 2024. The earning prospect is unknown yet and probably it will be stated in Q4 report but that will be Feb next year. Perhaps a little patience to observe at least until 28th Dec when the call warrant expired and after end of Dec when window dressing is over would be paid off. Normally price is a bit inflated at end of Dec and price normally "normalised" in Jan.
The warrants you mentioned here were issued by 3rd parties such as investment bank, not by Uchitech. Therefore the capital share based will not be affected hence no dilution of Eps and dividend. I dont think this is concerning.
Esos is the one will have dilution effect. However, there are good and bad for employee esos, depend on how you view it.
Regarding the USDMYR, you also need to know if our BNM will follow US when FED cut rate. It hard to say MYR will definately strengthen when US cut rate.
@stimugle - if you can wait, within 52w you can grab some at RM3.25 and/or lower. Your Concerns on warrant is baseless ESOS I ageee with rest is fundamental strength of UCHI all these years. “window dressing” does not apply to UCHI. The management does not need to resort to such gimmicks. The reason why typically price rolls up in Dec is because it’s usually CD month…and they pay in Jan. USD weakness will impact Earnings next year., which it good, as it will force the price down for you to collect. ☺️
5 CQ = 32.5 sen + rm3.30 to convert to 1 mother share is just on the boder line at present. Call Warrant (CQ)Issurers will sure to press down the mother share prices to make it not worth to exercise to the CQ holders
All better listen to kuku lo. Kuku said the company is worth RM3.1 only wor. Kuku ask you to buy below RM3.25. Did you all see that, this called 'KUKU logic'. 😆😂🤣 Kuku value the company at RM 3.1, you sure want to buy 20% to 30% below RM3.1 ma. That's call margin of safety. Where got asking ppl to buy below 3.25 wakakaka😆😆🤣🤣.
Market will reward those who are patient. Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful. This is logic is NOT from me, but from the God if value investing who is known at the Oracle of Omaha. Going with this, for me now it’s time to sit on “dry powder” and wait for for RM3.25 where I will start to accumulate…☺️
If exercise of CQ doesn't matter why Shines said "Call Warrant (CQ)Issurers will sure to press down the mother share prices to make it not worth to exercise to the CQ holders"? That is actually why I think it is a force to pressure the price downwards. As for BNM interest rate, I believe it is going to be near stagnant at current level because this is the level before COVID and MCO etc. I find that 3% to 3.25% is healthy and normal throughout history of many years and believing this is the ideal rate that BNM perceives when inflation is within threshold, where it encourage both economy growth and keep financial imbalance in check. Therefore US interest rate cut will almost certainly strengthen MYR.
I don't know when is the best time to buy. My strategy is to shortlist a few stocks with 6-7% yield and wait until one of them drop at least 5%. If I miss stock A, nevermind, I can get the rest. I don't have to grab all opportunities, just need to grab some will do. That can make me get more patience.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
jeffrey1166
602 posts
Posted by jeffrey1166 > 2023-11-30 21:00 | Report Abuse
below 3.8 still can buy no issue