Posted by paktua73 > 2022-06-21 09:01 | Report Abuse

morning..
paktua still dare to wait on own dream..
dream can buy at rm0.78-0.80..



tut tut
jika hit akan buy big..

Posted by Investor126 > 2022-06-21 09:19 | Report Abuse

You got so many other counter to move on, but you keep squeezing yourself into gloves.
Some more this shitty glove counter of Stanley. Punters hope for a rebound, but more disappointment you get later.

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-06-21 09:25 | Report Abuse

if a person really wants to invest in glove business, better to buy harta. but now the sentiment is still bad. why risk your money

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-06-21 11:16 | Report Abuse

50 sens coming !

Posted by Investor126 > 2022-06-21 11:32 | Report Abuse

To be honest, the future of US' expansion is not as brightful as many of you think. I am not here to rub salt on your wound nor spreading fear, but to raise your alert.
Learn from the past and histories. If you notice how those monies been siphoned away.

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-06-21 16:37 | Report Abuse

you think make sense to produce a low selling price product in high cost country?

Posted by williamtkb > 2022-06-21 16:59 | Report Abuse

Superman is the only penny stock for glove top4 now. Will the superman return???

Posted by Investor126 > 2022-06-21 18:33 | Report Abuse

Hopefully as you wish.

Posted by James Ng > 2022-06-22 07:25 | Report Abuse

[转贴] [Video:浅谈SUPERMAX CORPORATION BERHAD, SUPERMX, 7106] - James的股票投资James Share Investing
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/general/2022-06-22-story-h1625120863

Posted by Mini2021 > 2022-06-22 11:12 | Report Abuse

20 sen coming ...

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2022-06-22 11:34 | Report Abuse

Supermax: A valuable lesson
It has been 2 years now since the hype on gloves stock began right into the Covid. Here are some of the interesting i3 conversations (specific mention: Probably, RTH888, freetospeak) on their 'prediction' back then how much Supermax is worth.

05 Jun 2020 -Supermax Market Cap: $4.7 billion
“Market capitalization for Supermax should be 61% of Harta at 36,762 mil x 61%= 22,424 Mil”

This i3 investor applied various discounts just to be ‘safe’ and ‘conservative’ to show Supermax remains a bargain at $12 billion.

“Price should be after:
Discount 20% = RM13.19 ($18 bil.)
Discount 30% = RM 11.53 ($16 bil.)
Discount 40% = RM 9.88 ($13 bil.)
Discount 50% = RM 8.24” ($11 bil.)"

Lesson: Someone applying various discount % is a sign he doesn't know what he is talking about rather than a way to validate the safeness of an investment. One subtle yet important thing is there’s a difference between applying a margin of safety so you don’t overpay for a stock and applying a nonsensical P/E multiples to value a stock so you can apply a ‘discount’ to justify the price you pay. In the first case, you know what the business is worth with a mindset that things can still go wrong. The latter case is you don’t know the risk you’re taking but nonetheless you try to measure it in a way that persuades yourself it isn’t risky. The investor above shows the latter.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2022-06-22 11:34 | Report Abuse

20 July 2020 - Market cap: $24 billion
One investor cited the Global Disposable Gloves Market Report where “the disposable gloves market size is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 14% during the period 2019–2025”

Some were anecdotal “I just bought lots of 10 boxes supersafe glove, powdered, XL in preparation of my 20 shops opening.There are many industries that thrive with COVID. Glove , fresh food, graphic design." While others justify $24 billion is a good price because the company director is accumulating at this price point.

And then the big picture is that people believe Supermax is a great medium to long-term investment because of capacity expansion, higher utilisation rate and high ASP. Most investors believe COVID is going to create a ‘new normal’ for glove demand for years to come.

Let’s look at the problems. The information that 14% CAGR growth in glove market size for the next 5-6 years has little value. A market with a high growth rate tells nothing about how a company is going to perform in that industry. And more often than not, a high growth market attracts more competition because of higher profitability, lower barrier of entry (lowers minimum efficient scale), and easier to get funding. Think internet during the 90s, automobiles in the 1910-30s etc.

There are not many businesses that can increase volume while maintaining its selling price. So capacity expansion, higher utilisation rate, and high ASP cannot go hand in hand, unless under extreme circumstances. Capacity expansion will lead to lower utilisation and lower ASP. And the biggest thing people missed is that if Supermax is going to expand capacity, what about other glove companies? If all other companies made the same decision, what gives?

Some people bought Supermax because the CEO/founder/management are accumulating shares. But you don't need me to tell you how silly this thinking is as a way to justify purchasing an investment. Just ask Lim Wee Chai on how much he spent buying back TG shares at the peak.

Lesson: What has changed from Supermax valued at $2 billion (early 2020) to being valued at $24 billion (Jul 2020)? Did Supermax discover a new manufacturing method to dramatically improve their cost efficiency? No. Did Supermax do anything different? No. Some investors mentioned competitive advantages such as OBM line, proximity to customers, etc. These so-called advantages are already there pre-Covid.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2022-06-22 11:35 | Report Abuse

06 Aug 2020 - Market Cap: $31 billion
Freetospeak made an out of the sky prediction:
"For FY2021. My latest projection for SUPERMAX QTR 1 is about 800 m PAT to 1 billion PAT.
That is about 3.2 bill ANNUALLY (2.56x of Bloomberg consensus)
or eps of RM2.46 x pe 20 = TP50.00 (ex-bonus tp 25) or market cap of $68 billion"

You read that right. He set a TP of $50 (currently $0.89) or market cap of $68bil (currently $2.4bil).

"my judgement is based on analyst consensus PE of 25. and the intense research i made to predict the earnings going forward (both from management guidance and the reality of the pandemic implications which had change demand structurally)"

Intense research - don't play play. I'm not sure where freetospeak is right now. While he is extremely good at coming up with qtr earnings and fair value market cap, he was never able to explain how Supermax can earn $4 bil consistently every year for years to come.

Another i3 investor who called himself an ex-CFO of a public company said this to me:
"You remind me of many accountants and financial analysts I've come across (I speak with the experience as a CFO of many years standing) who are fantastic bookkeepers, but can't cross the bridge to business speak, business acumen and strategy, from the great vantage point they already have with financial numbers.

I'm afraid you are so wedded to your theories (which are fine in themselves if applied to the appropriate scenarios), basing them on historical data, which has been upended by dynamic industry shifts you have failed to comprehend and/or paid scant regard to.

As for your disdain for @freetospeak's estimate of RM3.2 bil in future profit, why don't you try to work out how he arrived at that number, and then critique it? I'll give you a clue: Supermax is lifting its production capacity to 42 bil per annum by 2022."

I wonder who fails to comprehend. Where is Supermax so-called $3.2 bil future profit?

Lesson: When someone start using big words (i.e business speak, business acumen, strategy, upended, dynamic industry shifts) but cannot explain what that means. You know you're seeing BS.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2022-06-22 11:35 | Report Abuse

16 August 2020 - Market cap: $25 billion
OTB enters the chat and make a bold prediction

"Per = 20, the target price = 50.82. Or $25 after bonus issue. Based on this calculation, the share price of Supermx should be 54.32 (I did not say the price of Supermx will go up to 54.32)."

OTB mentioned that he did not say Supermax will go up to $54.32 but say that is the fair value. That is a good way to protect yourself in case people come back and say you're wrong. You be the judge.

Another investor learning from his uncle who was a fund manager (https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/learnmyuncle/2020-06-28-story-h1509647100-GLOVE_STOCKS_A_sharing_by_My_Uncle_Retired_Fund_Manager). The retired fund manager remain bullish after Supermax had a week to forget; $6 billion in market value got wiped out in 5 trading days. He advised the young investor to ignore the noise and focus on the fundamentals, "...Supermax is a nett cash company, and they going to gain 1 billion net profit in the following year.."

I hope the young investor did not accumulate at the price point. It would be a suicide.

01 Jan 2021 - Market cap: $16 billion
Supermax market cap crater from $30 bil to $16 bil but Probability remains bullish "supermax...should shine anytime soon...when market realize it would take years for asp rise to dampen"

"Take years for ASP rise to dampen". Sorry Probability. It was already happening as soon as your sentence reaches i3's server.

21 Feb 2021 - Market cap: $13 billion
"we have EPF and big funds to buy...you can imagine why they will never bring down the ASP for next 2 years" - Probability

One of the most famous quotes from Probability "ASP not coming down for next 2 years aka until 2023". He never appeared in Supermax forum since.

Posted by cbmytrading > 2022-06-22 15:22 | Report Abuse

@ricky yeo,unfortunately,supermax and others glove company harta,tg,kossan...all glove counters are the same sad story...you should believe no extreme will hold long...when time change,so do social conditions and the way of doing things also will be different...no point to show what ppl had written in pass two years.

Posted by Moon > 2022-06-22 20:22 | Report Abuse

ASP- Avg Selling Price?

Posted by GlovesOff > 2022-06-22 20:40 | Report Abuse

ricky-san, all these jargons LMAO ... even us trolls can foresee this endgame with our kopitiam talks

Posted by GlovesOff > 2022-06-22 20:41 | Report Abuse

what's even hilarious was if you rebuked them one infamous glover will send you LOD love letter hahaha epic

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2022-06-22 21:07 | Report Abuse

@cbmytrading - not sure about you. I think there's more things to learn by looking at past prediction than reading current prediction and quickly forget about it 1 month later.

Posted by VincentTang > 2022-06-23 12:15 | Report Abuse

U.S. factories pop up to make medical gloves. Better sell all glove stocks.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-factories-pop-up-make-medical-gloves-spurred-by-pandemic-2022-06-21/

Posted by Investor126 > 2022-06-23 16:24 | Report Abuse

Let's see if this follows Kossan goes red closing later.
So called Top 4, but the share performance even worst than those second liners.

Posted by Effulgence > 2022-06-23 23:13 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/extraordinaryyou/2022-06-18-story-h1625065184-SUPERMAX_Poor_price_performance_Rich_in_cash

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-06-24 09:04 | Report Abuse

Posted by cbmytrading > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

@ricky yeo,unfortunately,supermax and others glove company harta,tg,kossan...all glove counters are the same sad story...you should believe no extreme will hold long...when time change,so do social conditions and the way of doing things also will be different...no point to show what ppl had written in pass two years.

I just know Ricky Yeo missed the whole glove party in 2020 n is now very happy to come out to talk cock

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-06-24 09:11 | Report Abuse

06 Aug 2020 - Market Cap: $31 billion
Freetospeak made an out of the sky prediction:
"For FY2021. My latest projection for SUPERMAX QTR 1 is about 800 m PAT to 1 billion PAT.
That is about 3.2 bill ANNUALLY (2.56x of Bloomberg consensus)
or eps of RM2.46 x pe 20 = TP50.00 (ex-bonus tp 25) or market cap of $68 billion"

FYI, Supermax made RM3.8B in 2021, RM0.6B more than Freetospeak's projection.

Just that dont why he n many others set their TP basing on 15 or 20.

I have mentioned many times that profit can not be sustained n all goreng theme cant last more than 1 year

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-06-24 09:23 | Report Abuse

Btw, the last post of Sifu Freetospeak was on 29 Jan 2021 when Supermx was ard Rm6.00.

Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

2021-01-29 08:26 | Report Abuse

FAST financial arab spring trend

People revolution over the financial world

There were still many sifat keeps on promoting Supermax then till few months ago

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2022-06-24 10:23 | Report Abuse

Long time Charles. The difference between freetospeak and you is he throws out flowery numbers, whereas you never had anything meaningful to say. Of course flowery numbers has little meaning too, but at least he is trying his best to predict.

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-06-24 10:24 | Report Abuse

I just know u missed the whole glove party only....

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-06-24 10:25 | Report Abuse

But still better than losing money here lah

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-06-24 10:28 | Report Abuse

Time to move on ah Ah Pek

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2022-06-24 10:31 | Report Abuse

Exactly my point, zero substance. So the only thing that's left is ad hominem and personal attack.

Posted by CUTLOST > 2022-06-24 10:58 | Report Abuse

Tq Superman

Posted by CUTLOST > 2022-06-24 10:59 | Report Abuse

Endemik

Posted by probability > 2022-06-24 11:06 | Report Abuse

charlest always see through intentions of writers than being affected by the content of the writing....

he wants to see what practical opportunity he has in any context than trying to validate or refute once assertions (which is not his strength)

his strength is reading the market (the players) as much as some are reading the stocks' business

betul tak?

Posted by probability > 2022-06-24 11:18 | Report Abuse

walao Ricky...just saw my name here...what are u trying to say man?

opinions changes with time and that does not mean they are continuously lying


Posted by Ricky Yeo > Jun 22, 2022 11:35 AM | Report Abuse

16 August 2020 - Market cap: $25 billion
OTB enters the chat and make a bold prediction

"Per = 20, the target price = 50.82. Or $25 after bonus issue. Based on this calculation, the share price of Supermx should be 54.32 (I did not say the price of Supermx will go up to 54.32)."

OTB mentioned that he did not say Supermax will go up to $54.32 but say that is the fair value. That is a good way to protect yourself in case people come back and say you're wrong. You be the judge.

Another investor learning from his uncle who was a fund manager (https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/learnmyuncle/2020-06-28-st...). The retired fund manager remain bullish after Supermax had a week to forget; $6 billion in market value got wiped out in 5 trading days. He advised the young investor to ignore the noise and focus on the fundamentals, "...Supermax is a nett cash company, and they going to gain 1 billion net profit in the following year.."

I hope the young investor did not accumulate at the price point. It would be a suicide.

01 Jan 2021 - Market cap: $16 billion
Supermax market cap crater from $30 bil to $16 bil but Probability remains bullish "supermax...should shine anytime soon...when market realize it would take years for asp rise to dampen"

"Take years for ASP rise to dampen". Sorry Probability. It was already happening as soon as your sentence reaches i3's server.

21 Feb 2021 - Market cap: $13 billion
"we have EPF and big funds to buy...you can imagine why they will never bring down the ASP for next 2 years" - Probability

One of the most famous quotes from Probability "ASP not coming down for next 2 years aka until 2023". He never appeared in Supermax forum since.

Posted by probability > 2022-06-24 11:20 | Report Abuse

are we talking about the facts that all stocks performance will revert to mean? sincerely trying to know what u are saying here

Posted by probability > 2022-06-24 11:25 | Report Abuse

or are we studying personality like freetospeak, OTB and myself...what are you trying to convey

Posted by probability > 2022-06-24 11:31 | Report Abuse

anyone can understand whats the take away from this - is Ricky talking about the personality here?

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Jun 22, 2022 11:34 AM | Report Abuse

Lesson: Someone applying various discount % is a sign he doesn't know what he is talking about rather than a way to validate the safeness of an investment. One subtle yet important thing is there’s a difference between applying a margin of safety so you don’t overpay for a stock and applying a nonsensical P/E multiples to value a stock so you can apply a ‘discount’ to justify the price you pay. In the first case, you know what the business is worth with a mindset that things can still go wrong. The latter case is you don’t know the risk you’re taking but nonetheless you try to measure it in a way that persuades yourself it isn’t risky. The investor above shows the latter.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2022-06-24 11:39 | Report Abuse

Not trying to say anything just learning from my mistakes and other ppl's mistakes. I make mistakes (APM, Favco etc) and investing we can't be 100% correct all the time. Nothing against you or OTB or whoever, but always good to learn from history. What went well, what went wrong etc.

Posted by probability > 2022-06-24 12:03 | Report Abuse

yeah, good to reflect...but all i can say predicting future is becoming extremely difficult and history does not rhyme anymore

its always about having competitive edge against market..on whatever aspect it is

Posted by Knm_bottomed > 2022-06-24 12:14 | Report Abuse

Lookslike supermx going to surge next week

Posted by Investor126 > 2022-06-24 15:09 | Report Abuse

Surge? How many time one got cheated by Stanley? Whenever this kind of news published, the share price up a little for a while, and then drops even more.

Posted by super911 > 2022-06-25 09:33 | Report Abuse

If a so called sifu is using super extraordinary earning period's EPS and guide the share price with their usual PE, this kind of sifu better you run away as far as possible.

Posted by Investor126 > 2022-06-27 09:48 | Report Abuse

It does not matter how many times Supermax published how it has improved the labour welfare issues. Question is when can the CBP ban be lifted. How about the internal issue, had it been resolved? Once bitten, twice shy.

Posted by freddiehero > 2022-06-27 10:39 | Report Abuse

superman enjoy roller coaster?

Posted by MaluNegaraKu > 2022-06-27 12:28 | Report Abuse

Time to change name Super- MAX to Super-MIN . The price already drop from MAXimum till MINimum now

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-27 14:17 | Report Abuse

I actually miss all the glove fun and also the author of learning from his uncle who was a fund manager which I remember I advise him to write his own thought rather than his uncle opinion.

Anyhow I have fun with Philip for selling his Topglove too early and buying back Harta on it way down too early.

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-06-27 14:25 | Report Abuse

How many losses will be incurred from US plant ??

Posted by CITADEL > 2022-06-27 14:26 | Report Abuse

mana those die hard supporters??? bankrupt and hide??

Posted by Habisgl0v3333 > 2022-06-27 18:29 | Report Abuse

Freetospeak is great. I ride wave because of his vision! But start to warn people since rm24 pre split.. glove will be stagnant soon , technology is the new luxury , asp will be high hint hint ;)

Posted by Investoz88 > 2022-06-28 11:58 | Report Abuse

All the Malaysia gloves companies bosses controlling more than 60% of global market should start working together to reduce supplies and push up ASP.
Why sell more gloves and make more losses..
Buy own shares to support prices will not help..
Make no sense!!