I see. My mistake. but he is still in the management team.
"Managing Director, Steven Teow as well as the Executive Director, Edwin Yeap who have continued to remain on the Board together with the current management team"
Edwin Yeap exercised more than 1.3 million ESOS in the year 2016 (pg 48 of 2016 Annual Report), which constitute part of the Executive Director's remuneration package. So his disposing of the shares is a normal course of transaction given that any person who receives ESOS will realised some of the shares bought at a cheap price, it being part of the remuneration package.
FYI, of the 1.34 million ESOS exercised in 2016, he only disposed of 400k. Means he still held on to an additional 940k shares acquired through exercising ESOS. This is on top of the shares he already owned in the company.
So you are saying 'beware', hahaha... If someone with such a huge shareholding were to exit, I don't think it will be through the open market.
Go for good biz, good people and good price. Century is going into parcel delivery, a good biz model (look at GDex & POS). Good people, competent & expert in parcel delivery (proven in their home country, No.1 Korean parcel delivery company). Good price? GDex is RM3.2b. Century, is only RM430m on the existing biz of B2B.
If they can achieve half the size of GDex, revenue of RM110m by 2020, it's achievable. So, we add in RM1.6b, or maybe say 30% discount, RM1.1b. Fair value is about RM1.53b or RM5.25 per share.
In the AGM, we could expect this year eps will be slightly better than last year, steady dividend. Ecommerce will be rolling out in a couple of months but didnt specify when, ready to expect losses for the first 2 years and they have a vision to bring century to become regional player as stated in the report book. Future capex could be between 50m-100m for the parcel delivery either from internal or borrowings. Bank approved credit facility are up to 170m but not necessary use till the max.
Koreans just sit there..Mostly Edwin and Teow did the speech with confident and firm. I'm impressed with the way Teow answer one of the shareholder question "would the nestle case affect century image".
In my encounters with Koreans, they are like the Japs, they don't speak a lot, maybe it's due to their English oral skills? Or maybe because they are still new here, so they let the local guys do the PR talks...
About the Nestle case, I believe it's no longer affecting Century's business, as shown in the last Q's results, with marked improvements over the preceeding Qs before the dispute was amicably resolved. If the cost of settlement out-of-court was not deducted, the profits and NPM was actually pretty good considering the industry's tough environment...
hahaha.. Teow has his point of parting the relationship with Nestle, he gave a case example where Nestle wants them to clear loadings during wee hours and the whole Century's team including MD, ED themselves have to work until 3-4am to get things done and Nestle didn't even appreciate them as their service provider, arrogant, it is like big bullying small...so Teow think that its a waste of company resources in long term and therefore, breaking tie with nestle.
He even mentioned CJ approved RM5m to settle the suit just to get things over, but Teow insist they did nothing wrong and just pay up RM2m to settle it.
plus, regarding the ecommerce they said give them 4 years to show positive result as the 1st 2 years possible lost due investment on buying trucks, technology, hiring lots of employees etc...
I don't really understand how you arrived at Century's fair value at about Rm5.25 per share, can you share your estimation with some details?
15/04/2017 12:24: "If they can achieve half the size of GDex, revenue of RM110m by 2020, it's achievable. So, we add in RM1.6b, or maybe say 30% discount, RM1.1b. Fair value is about RM1.53b or RM5.25 per share"
wannabeinvestor, thank you! his explanation did make sense, but it somehow show their communication/social skills have to improved? Imagine every company treat them that way, and they didn't manage to found a solution, how are they gonna survive? cannot everytime also fight...
ya la..I also think so..but he said century is not the only service provider facing same problem with nestle.. so the problem is with nestle and it's kind of complicated..
Century with CJKE's just become a good company (new biz in e-commerce + expansion + going regional) + good people (together with CJKE's expertise) + good price (PE only one-fifth of GDex). At RM1.15, its not a gem, is a super gem. Time will tell.
Don't underestimate the future e-commerce biz. CAGR next 4-5 years is about 15-20% p.a. Market size for e-Commerce 2016 is about RM1.1 billion (0.7% of total retail sale, Japan or Korea is about 20%)
CAGR for e-commerce is 15-20% CAGR for next couple of years (CEO of DHL). A couple of big players is coming in, as the pie is growing about RM200-400m over next few years. Big and experience companies has higher rate of success (although many is moving into this sector).
Look at GDex, PE of 112x, up almost RM2 billion in market cap in less than 6 months, and their last earnings is only about RM38m. Century, is getting into GDex's sector, that is growing at RM200-400m p.a. Century has all the expertise from CJKorea Express to succeed in this biz. Today's price, RM1.14 per share, you are only paying for the existing biz at mid-teen PE. The new biz is FOC.
I will assess quarter by quarter... but I would like to hold for at least 2 quarters unless there are better opportunities. Seems good for mid to long term.
Taking control of the company, buying 31% stake from the owner who built up the business. Definitely this have to pay a premium. If not, why the owners were willing to let go?
Similarly, Tan Sri Desmond Lim bought 19% of WCT and took control of the company, had to fork out RM600+ millions @ RM2.50 per share when WCT was trading @RM1.75....:)
The Koreans are the new controlling shareholders......It's not a pure investor. They are supposed to build up the business and here to stay with the company....:)
Do you think Century will go into e-commerce? NO (without CJKE), according to the MD in the AGM. Why? Market is saturated & this biz need deep pocket. However, with CJKE brandname plus ties with Lazada & the support of e-commerce by government, MD said, Century stand a good chance.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mizi1
120 posts
Posted by Mizi1 > 2017-04-08 00:59 | Report Abuse
Overheated....