Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-06 16:32 | Report Abuse

sosfinance,

What do you mean?
Is Century NOW going into e-commerce or not going into e-commerce?

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-06 16:40 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/07/publicinvest-research-starts-coverage-of-century-logistics-with-outperform-call/

Public Research TP=1.43 FOR FOR CENTURY LOGISTICS

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-06 16:54 | Report Abuse

Public Research starts coverage on Century Logistics with outperform call on 7th April 2017 with target price of RM1.43

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-05-06 18:37 | Report Abuse

@Skliew, Century is going into e-commerce with CJKE. What the MD said, without CJKE being a shareholder and expertise in this sector, Century on its own, will not go into e-commerce.

e-commerce in Malaysia is at its infancy. CAGR for next 3-5 years is 15-20%. However, need deep pocket to go into the biz. Century has the capacity to loan up to RM200m without any problem. Century market cap is about RM400m, GDex market cap is about RM4 billion. Both are going to participate into e-commerce.

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-06 20:12 | Report Abuse

sosfinance, thank you for your explanations....

Century is obviously a better choice...

It has the people with the experience and expertise, the infrastructure, sound balance sheet to move ahead in this exciting growth business for the next 5 years and beyond....:)
0

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-08 21:47 | Report Abuse

QUIET....... SHH.....

Posted by Burhan Rahman > 2017-05-12 12:45 | Report Abuse

i see no changes

Posted by littlelolita > 2017-05-13 14:38 | Report Abuse

30mil population in 330k km2. without sarawak and sabah that is 25mil population in 130k km2. it is very low density. the parcel delivery dont have enough economy of scale.

parcel delivery market worth about RM1.1bil. profit margin about 10-15%. that is about 110mil profit.

century will start parcel delivery in 2h17, if century got 1% market share in d end of 2017, its only RM5mil market sharet. profit about RM500k or less, as profit margin may less than 10% as high initial cost.

share price increased more than 35%. century is overvalued.

Posted by TheTerminator > 2017-05-13 14:57 | Report Abuse

You sound like better than Korean investor ?? Interesting.

Posted by littlelolita > 2017-05-13 18:57 | Report Abuse

korean investor?? they are not investor, they buy for expedition in malaysia market, if start up a company in malaysia could cost them more than 170mil. so they buy instead of start a new one. for them it was cost saving not profit making decision. they already says parcel delivery is money burning game, maybe burn 2-4 years. bought century could shorter the money burning time.
In a long term century will worth more than 568mil. but when?

Posted by T800Terminator > 2017-05-13 20:15 | Report Abuse

So are you trying to tell they are making wrong decision?

Posted by Jilohhuat > 2017-05-13 20:29 | Report Abuse

Korean paid 1.45 p/share for their 31 % stake, Public Research tp 1.43 , I feel very comfortable buying at 1.18, yat yat fatt !

Posted by littlelolita > 2017-05-14 10:09 | Report Abuse

i never say they made wrong decision. RM1.45 is anchoring effect.
my point is ecommerce hardly benefit to century in mid-short term. if the economy condition remain the same, share price now is overvalued.

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-14 15:31 | Report Abuse

The Koreans are not stupid! They are in this trade and is the largest logistics company in Korea. They are the experts and must have studied everything b4 they bought over the 31% controlling stake @1.45 per share...They know what they are doing....

Unless we are better expert than the Koreans (they should have hired us as their consultants for the deal then), we may underestimate the potential of the parcel delivery market....and fail to apprehend why the market pays such a high valuation for GDEX And POS? :)

Posted by R40s > 2017-05-14 15:36 | Report Abuse

littlelolita,

I think you are looking at the wrong picture... The economic condition is the the key factor here, e-Commerce industry in Malaysia is still at infantry stage now, it contributed only 0.7% of total sales in 2016, compare to more matured markets like China and US with over 10% sales online, so it has great potential to grow at CAGR of about 20% p.a., for the 5 to 10 years. Another catalyst for its explosive growth in Malaysia is Alibaba's recent commitment to make Malaysia as their ASEAN region's e-Commerce hub.

No doubt many players are eager to enter and try to carve a slice of pie from this new industry. But most of them will end up as failure or marginalized small outfits, except for those more established ones like GDEX or POS, and those which are fully backed by big players, like Century Logistics, whose major shareholder CJKE is a well established player which commands 40% market share in Korea. The chance of Century's success in this new venture is quite certain with CJKE working behind them...

Posted by YSL888 > 2017-05-14 15:42 | Report Abuse

Fully agreed.

Posted by R40s > 2017-05-14 15:52 | Report Abuse

Having said that the economic condition is not the key factor here... but the currently slower economy could be an opportunity, it offers the right timing to start a new venture, because it would take 1 or 2 years to build the new business to fully operational, by then when economy pick up speed, the business would be ready to harvest at its full potential...

Posted by littlelolita > 2017-05-14 17:12 | Report Abuse

i like how people think china can do it, malaysia boleh also.
almost a decade ago people says jb will be second shenzhen, and now jb still jb but with a nicer name iskandar
china market and malaysia market are difference. china big cities all are high density city and malaysia bandar is low density. china have dozen of kl-like city and malaysia only one kl. jb and penang not even close.
i said economy condition is only for the current business. i dont think consumer spending will dramatically increase in this 2 years. century tradition delivery wont growth dramatically and century will benefit from parcel delivery very limited.

cj spent 1.45 is what century worth for them, not minor shareholder. people still dont understand anchoring effect. as long as in 7 years time century hit 1.45(assume interest remain the same), cj is making "profit" as interest saving. but for minority it is like 20% capital appreciation in 7 years. for sure century very possible can hit 1.45 in 7 years. it was a good deal for cj to buy 1.45, but really a good deal for minority to buy 1.2 now??

Posted by T800Terminator > 2017-05-14 17:34 | Report Abuse

From your study/evaluation, how much century should worth actually ?

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-15 07:02 | Report Abuse

The density of the recipients in the respective cities or towns only matter for the last mile parcel delivery service not the density of the cities or the distance between cities or towns.....:)

Posted by necro > 2017-05-15 07:32 | Report Abuse

87sen

Posted by maxhoi > 2017-05-15 08:11 | Report Abuse

50sen more like it, lol.

Posted by wannabeinvestor > 2017-05-15 09:21 | Report Abuse

consumer spending certainly will not dramatically increase but consumer's spending pattern/buying channel will dramatically change overtime.

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-15 12:15 | Report Abuse

When economy is no good, online shopping will become more popular as it is cheaper to shop online.....it is becoming popular with the younger generations...

Posted by R40s > 2017-05-15 22:55 | Report Abuse

Both wannabeinvestor and Skliew are spot-on...

It's not so much depending on Economic growth of 4.5%/yr, it's the 20~25%/yr growth of Malaysians / ASEAN e-Commerce or online shopping that matters most... From a small base of 0.7% last year, expecting to grow at CAGR 20% for the next 5 years, that will cause this industry to boom at exponential rates...

Posted by littlelolita > 2017-05-16 09:58 | Report Abuse

lets say 20% growth, assume parcel delivery market and ecommerce correction is 1. in 2020 parcel delivery market is about RM1.9bil. and if century got 5% market share, its about RM100mil, profit is about RM10mil only. that is like 50% of current profit. in 2020 the profit may increase about 50% but in 2017 share price already increased 30%. people are overexcited about ecommerce.

for sure no one stop you buying century. share price wont drop much but will it rise a lot? dont forget to calculate your opportunity cost. you buy at your own risk.

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-16 10:57 | Report Abuse

For high growth stocks and exciting future, the PE accorded is very much higher and would not follow conventional valuation.... just like GDEX, POS, KAREX and so many others... :)

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-16 11:01 | Report Abuse

30% increased in the share price in 2017 is a rerating and at current price of 1.20, the PE is still in the 20s.... more to the conventional PE valuation..... The PEG, PE over growth is less than 1.... that's why CJ willing to pay 1.45 as they are confident they could deliver since they are they experts in the business..... :)

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-16 11:11 | Report Abuse

Financial Highlights CENTURY LOGISTICS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Profitability
Revenue (RM’000) 256,853 255,813 275,232 297,876 300,289
Earnings before interest, tax,
depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) (RM’000) 40,386 42,645 55,187 54,619 37,930
Profit before taxation (RM’000) 24,861 27,209 42,439 41,003 25,594
Profit for the year attributable
to equity holders (RM’000) 17,614 22,553 33,287 31,948 20,170
Balance Sheet
Share capital (RM’000) 95,820 122,064 183,096 186,818 192,367
No of shares in issue (units) (’000) 95,820 122,064 366,193 373,635 384,735
Shareholders’ equity (RM’000) 218,785 252,578 270,514 288,768 301,485
Financial Ratio
Revenue growth -8.8% -0.4% 7.6% 8.2% 0.8%
Earnings growth -41.4% 28.0% 47.6% -4.0% -36.9%
Return on equity 8.1% 8.9% 12.3% 11.1% 6.7%
Share Information
Weighted average number of
ordinary shares (units) (’000)* 256,886 328,059 365,019 370,067 380,705
Dividend per share (sen)* 3.2 4.0 4.7 5.5 3.5
Earnings per share (sen)* 6.86 6.87 9.12 8.63 5.30
Net assets per share (sen)* 85 77 74 78 78
* Weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue in years 2012 and 2013 have been adjusted as if the proportionate
change in the number of shares arising from the bonus issue and share split exercises in 2014 had taken place at the start of each of these years.


5 YEARS AVERAGE EPS=7.3

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-16 11:37 | Report Abuse

GDEX SHARE PRICE AS AT 30.12.2016 IS 1.69

TODAY 2.91.

AN INCREASE OF 72%

CENTURY APPEARS A PALE COMPARISON IN THE RISE IN SHARE PRICE! LOL!

Posted by littlelolita > 2017-05-16 13:07 | Report Abuse

orange isnt as sour as lemon. either orange isnt sourness enough or lemon is too sourness. difference people difference opinion.

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-16 13:59 | Report Abuse

GDEX FY16 ending June EPS=2.66 Sen, NTA =29sen, 6 months earning todate as at Dec 2016, 1.25 Sen. Proposed 3 for 1 bonus..... nominal face value per share is 5 Sen..... NOW SELLING AT RM2.95!

Posted by Skliew > 2017-05-16 14:05 | Report Abuse

I would not dare to say that Century' s share price could not go up ! LOL!

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-05-17 08:39 | Report Abuse

Another neglected counter with great potential. The e-commerce market is big enough for 2-3 more players with deep pockets + expertise (moats).

Posted by wannabeinvestor > 2017-05-18 17:58 | Report Abuse

profit up no dividend so sad..

Posted by Chansey > 2017-05-19 09:12 | Report Abuse

Woah!! Affin report say this stock is worth RM1.70. The strategic investors CJ bought the stock at RM1.45.

Century Logistics is on the cusp of transforming from a total integrated
logistics pure play to an emerging parcel delivery provider by
leveraging CJ Korex’s strong parentage as Korea’s largest logistics
provider. Riding on the exponential growth potential in e-commerce
and the digitization of Malaysia’s retail economy, Century aims to
differentiate itself with high service quality and superior efficiencies in
automation. The merger with CJ Korex’s Malaysian operations could
yield significant synergies, increase product offerings and expand its
client base to underpin near-term earnings growth for its core
operations. We initiate coverage with a BUY and a 12M TP of RM1.70

https://researchnews.affinhwang.com/Research/DailyReports/20170519/Affin%20Hwang%2020170519%20CLH%20IC.pdf

Posted by wudmec > 2017-05-19 09:24 | Report Abuse

wau...TP RM1.70...great company

Posted by 88bumblebee > 2017-05-19 10:01 | Report Abuse

Chansey. Thanks for sharing affinhwang report.

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-05-19 10:03 | Report Abuse

there is a high probability century will come good but this gem requires holding power between now till the launch of their parcel delivery business

Posted by wannabeinvestor > 2017-05-19 10:52 | Report Abuse

nice write up!

Posted by wudmec > 2017-05-19 10:55 | Report Abuse

nice...go pecahkan 1.25

Posted by G-boy > 2017-05-19 11:34 | Report Abuse

so weird. this quarter don have dividend

Posted by wudmec > 2017-05-19 11:54 | Report Abuse

No dividend was declared for the quarter as the company plans to conserve the cash this year to fund its RM90m warehouse project in Klang.

Posted by wudmec > 2017-05-19 11:57 | Report Abuse

Affin TP RM1.70
Public Bank TP RM1.43

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-05-19 17:16 | Report Abuse

AffinHwang calculation on the parcel delivery contribution a bit low based on the invested capital.

Posted by Galant > 2017-05-24 16:33 | Report Abuse

nice. 10+% profit liao. more to come.

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-05-24 18:43 | Report Abuse

Thanks to AffinHwang road show. Bravo.

Posted by prudenteinvestor > 2017-05-24 22:22 | Report Abuse

yesss... me too

Posted by wannabeinvestor > 2017-05-24 22:44 | Report Abuse

I was here since .7 haha

Posted by R40s > 2017-05-25 00:29 | Report Abuse

This "Stock with Momentum" score given by Uncle Tong also should help:

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/stock-momentum-century-logistics-holdings-2