UOB KH back in January report even put it this way. our back-of-the-envelope calculation projects 2.30-2.50 if it wins the Saudi Aramco bid.
another interesting story is that Barakah currently in discussing to refinance its debt which if successful will save half the current interest they're paying for now.
Both will contribute significantly to its bottom line.
Lets pray hard and hopefully it will soon fly to new heights.
"1Q14 core net profit of MYR11m accounts for 15% of our 15- month FY14 earnings forecast.
Bagging the on-going Saudi Arabia T&I tender is key to further re-rating.
Maintain BUY and MYR1.85 TP, pegged to 14x FY15.
(What’s New) 1Q14 core profit was within our expectations, on the back of a 35% YoY/1% QoQ decline in core earnings. Headline net profit included a MYR7m one-off loss, mainly related to the listing exercise.
(What’s Our View) The underlying YoY weakness in core earnings was largely due to the higher operating expenses related to the low utilisation of its pipelay unit; KL 101. The vessel, delivered in 2012, was immobilised since Nov 2013 for slight maintenance works in preparation for the PETRONAS T&I job in Jun 2014. The lower revenue from installation and construction services (-50% YoY) also contributed to the weaker YoY earnings.
Our forecasts are unchanged. Trend-wise, we expect 2Q performance to mirror 1Q before earnings pick up from 3Q as contributions from PETRONAS T&I works kick in. In the meantime, it has seven on-going short tenders worth MYR150m as it aims to keep utilisation reasonably high.
The Saudi Arabia T&I job is still pending and the award will be announced soon. Barakah is in contention with 2 tenderers for this job, of which one of them is an incumbent. Securing this job win worth about MYR2-2.5b would be a major positive to earnings and franchise. Our back of envelope calculation suggests an additional MYR50-70m p.a to net profit and potentially a 51% rise in target price."
It is kinda expected for 2013 profit to be lower due to the new contract awarded and setting up manpower and equipment cost incurred in Q4 2013. It will be better defined during this year when work orders starts kicking in.
Actual vs. Expectations Reported 1Q14 core net profit of RM11.1m which accounted for 14.3% and 15.7% of our and consensus full-year FY14 forecasts of RM77.6m and RM70.7m, respectively.
We deem the results as within expectations as the 1H of the financial year is typically weaker on seasonal factor due to the monsoon season.
We have restated BARAKAH’s earnings to include: (i) the one-off gain on disposal of subsidiary Vastalux Energy Bhd, (ii) one-off impairment loss on goodwill and, (iii) its IPO listing expenses.
Dividends No dividend was declared as expected.
Key Results Highlights
QoQ, revenue declined by 5% to RM82.8m mainly due to a decrease in the turnover generated from installation and construction segment as there was lesser revenue generated from barge chartering and T&I projects in the current quarter.
YoY, 1Q14 core net profit was down by 30.9%, mainly due to lower barge income and higher administrative costs as the company built up its orderbook and went for a public listing last year.
Outlook Management guided that 1H14 results could be seasonally lower due to the monsoon factor. However, things will pick up in 2H14 on the back of higher installation and construction activities.
The secured orderbook stands at RM2.24b which provides earnings visibility for next three years. We understand that BARAKAH has been actively involved in bidding for new projects with its current tender book of RM3.0b, comprising 70 oil and gas projects.
We believe that the commissioning segment is able to provide Barakah stable earnings as it has a 90% win rate in the commissioning market every year with its excellent track record.
Besides that, Barakah is looking to secure T&I international work from the Gulf Region through its existing joint-venture partner in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to be awarded this year.
Additional growth for the T&I segment will hinge on BARAKAH’s future asset expansion. We understand that the company might expand the asset base in line with the expansion in contracts awarded.
Change to Forecasts Due to change of financial year end (from FYE September to FYE December), we have adjusted our FY14E and 15E forecasts to RM111.5m and RM130.8m.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM.
Valuation We maintain our target price of RM1.98, which is based on an implied target PER of 13x on CY15 EPS of 15.2 sen.
We believe our valuation for BARAKAH is still reasonable as we are valuing it at a 13.3% discount to the 15.0x PER ascribed to industry peers such as ALAM (OP; TP: RM2.07) given its smaller asset base (it currently owns only one pipelay support vessel).
Risks to our call (i) A downturn in the oil & gas sector could result in delays in contract rollouts. (ii) Delay in the Pan-Malaysia’s T&I project, which will reduce the potential earnings being factored in our forecasts. (iii) Lower-than-expected margins.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
MikeT
204 posts
Posted by MikeT > 2014-02-26 10:11 | Report Abuse
crawler, i cuba nasib aja cos so many ppl wanna dump this share.