Take opportunity to further accumulate few lots at RM1.46 Give reasonable dividend at every q and potential special bonus when the Selangor water deal is settle soon.
Taliworks: A new operator of sizeable infrastructure assets with earnings stream is backed by mature and profitable concession-type model like IJM Corp, Ekovest, AZRB and Gamuda.
--Investment highlights--
Taliworks realigned business model is driven by four main divisions:
----Water treatment and distribution.---- *One of the O&M players in Selangor (Sungai Harmoni (SSP1) - 100% stake) and the sole player in Langkawi. (Taliworks Langkawi - 100% stake).
Sungai Harmoni (SSP1) has a 30-year O&M Agreement which expires in Jan 2030. SHSB charges SPLASH at a bulk sale rate (BSR) of RM0.42/m3 of treated water currently. The BSR is expected to increase by 5% every 3 years with the next hike scheduled in 2017.
Langkawi operations will expire in 2020. Taliworks Langkawi charges for its services at a BSR of RM2.15/m3. The BSR would be revised upward to RM2.24/m3 from 2018 to October 2020.
----Tolled highways – Owns and operates two highways domestically. (Cheras-Kajang Highway - 51% stake, NNKSB Expressway - 37.5% stake)----
Double-digit tariff hikes. *Cheras-Kajang Highway was granted a 30% toll rate hike in on Oct-15. *Cheras-Kajang Highway is also scheduled for a 25-45% toll rate increase every five years from 2015. *NNKSB has not been granted its tariff hike effective 1 Jan 16. Management is pursuing non-tariff compensation, typical for all other highway concessions in the country. NNKSB is scheduled for a 20-30% toll rate increase in 2016, 2020 and 2025.
----Waste and wastewater – new acquisition in Feb 2016: SWM Holdings. (SWM - 38% stake)----
*With a concession tenure expiring in 2033, its earnings is set surge in 2019 driven by the full-year impact of the scheduled 25% tariff hike in Sep 2018. The maiden contribution flows through from 2Q16 with an expected full-year contribution of up to RM30m in FY17.
---Construction and Engineering – water-related infrastructure works specializing in water treatment plants (WTPs)----
Catalyst:
----New dividend policy is no less than 75% of PAT.----
The group’s new dividend payout policy of not less than 75% of its net profit for 2015 onwards remains intact. The group paid out 8 sen for FY15, which translates to a dividend yield of 5.7%.Taliworks’ existing ifrastructure assets are mature, and therefore require minimal capex. Forecasted 8 sen DPS p.a. for FY16-18 is deemed sustainable and implies a payout ratio of 70-90% of net profit.
Water deal extended to Mar 2017 Water receivables related to SSP1’s operations stood at RM471.5m (end-2Q16: RM440.3m). This is classified as trade receivables owed by Splash and are likely to be recovered once the acquisition of Splash, which is the last targeted water asset in the state, is resolved. The deal has been extended by another six months to Mar 2017 in order to finalise the valuation of Splash. Resolution of this deal would lead to a recovery of SSP1’s receivables and in turn, would increase chances for higher dividends.
The Q result is better than last Q: Previous Q: Revenue: 83.8mil; net profit: 19.3mil Latest Q: Re:69 mil; net Profit: 32mil But compare preceding year same Q is lower. Whole year is better than previous financial year.
-After stripping out the RM65.8m gain on the disposal of the China waste management operations, Taliworks’s FY16 core net profit was 8% above our full-year forecast and 6% above consensus.
-The main deviation arose from 4Q16’s write-down of deferred tax liability in relation to the change in the amortisation method for highway assets.
-Total full-year DPS of 8 sen was in line (5.2% yield).
-Medium-term catalysts include the resolution to the water deal and new M&A prospects. Downside risks include a prolonged timeline for new M&A plays and further delays in the water deal.
-Water receivables related to its 100%-owned SSP1 stood at RM502m (up 7% qoq, 52 sen/share, about 27% of Taliworks market capitalization.) - classified as a trade receivable owed by Splash and is likely to be recovered once the Splash acquisition issue is resolved, optimistically by mid-2017. The possibility of higher dividends remains intact.
federal govt meeting with sgor gov today to thrash out remaining splash issues, may get settlement shortly and then impact on taliwork. tabung haji bought quite alot of tw recently.
usual knee-jerk reaction, the splash issue will be resolved over time, it doesn't change the quality of the company. in fact the pullback presents buying opportunities.
After no result of SPLASH talk and postponed to Oct. LTH sold total of 3.6 mil shares from 15/3-24/3, and then start to accumulate back 4.4 mil share (until 4/5). LTH has increased it holding from 53.1mil (early of Aug '16) to 84.3mil (4th May,'17) ; increased about 31mil shares(50%++) within 10 mths... It is opportunities ???
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kai8994
406 posts
Posted by kai8994 > 2016-09-29 11:19 | Report Abuse
Angie, as what boon mentioned above, Tali mostly involve in concession biz. It's a good "dividend yield play" company.