Posted by LilyLL > 2017-11-02 15:04 | Report Abuse

Today Pmetal up too slow not like yesterday

Posted by LilyLL > 2017-11-02 15:08 | Report Abuse

Pmbtech today up yesterday also up like rocket

Posted by tianjin > 2017-11-02 15:34 | Report Abuse

Telus, I don't think you owe anyone any explanation regarding Tan Sri Paul Koon's excellent management and dedication in Pmetal , kita semua genuine investors not speculators and we have rewarded handsomely on RoI/RoE ( return of investment / return on equity ) , tomorrow will be the 1st anniversary of BI n Share split which was ex @ 1.53 ( 1 share after BI n split = 2.8 shares ) , base on current price of 4.85 ( at the time of writing ) , I m enjoying a whooping 217% net return . If you think Pmetal is not suitable for you , don't touch ! Go for your beloved counter . Telus , Kita tahu Sama tahu dan Kita tak payah beri dia tahu apa sebab good management n good team . Kita percaya Pmetal boleh dan tetap boleh! It's your money and it's your investment decision , just like an old saying " one man's meat is another man's poison "
Cheers Pmetal boleh dan tetap boleh!

Posted by happy123 > 2017-11-02 15:37 | Report Abuse

Ricky, I like your comment, however there is one point for consideration, if they're making the same margin in the last 10 years, then you can just average them and said that is a 9% incremental return... but if the massive return happened in the last 2-3 years, then is a different story and calculation altogether. Just my 2c

Posted by Oreo Oreo > 2017-11-02 15:51 | Report Abuse

pmbtech is one of the subsidiaries of press metal

Posted by LilyLL > 2017-11-02 16:05 | Report Abuse

I think today will break 4.90 2moro break 5.00 lah

Posted by Tan Thiam Seng > 2017-11-02 16:07 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow will be profit taking la....

Posted by happy123 > 2017-11-02 16:09 | Report Abuse

Happy Tianjin and Telus......counting $ & laughing all the way to the bank

Posted by LilyLL > 2017-11-02 16:11 | Report Abuse

Ya lah 2moro friday

Posted by tianjin > 2017-11-02 16:35 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow could be a bigger surprise !!!

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-11-02 17:12 | Report Abuse

Hi Tianjin, since you are a genuine investor and understand ROE, so you surely understand a stock is a sell at one price and a buy at another price. Investment thesis should be tested and discussed and even more so when someone has a different viewpoint from you. So don't treat this like it is an insult to your family member; your favorite football club or the phone brand you are using. Because from the way you write things, you're personalizing and internalizing investment just like the way people associate themselves with their own religion. Insulting the religion is to insult the person. You are carrying yourself in dangerous territory.

2. Your net return is definitely commendable. But if you realize you are again 'personalizing' your investment by letting the movement of the share price influencing you when analyzing a company. You surely know you don't mix business fundamentals with market price. Mixing both is a recipe for psychological misjudgment. Hence my serious advice is to avoid checking daily share price. Especially since you call yourself genuine investor, which I presume long-term investor. We can give ourselves label however we like i.e value investor, genuine investor, conservative etc but the stock market judge you by the attitude you carry in the market not by labels. The danger is when a gambler think he is a speculator; a speculator think he is an investor.

3. I am in no way seeking for explanation. I am interested to understand other investors viewpoints. Unless you are here so others can support your ego, to suffer confirmation bias because everyone will agree with you, then you are walking a dangerous path again.

4. I lay out PMetal's historical figure, which is fact. So I will appreciate someone can layout thesis like economic of scale, aluminium price etc. You know, more intelligent discussion.

5. Happy123 is an example of a more sensible discussion. You are right, margin has gone up, especially this year ROE are highest in 10 years, so that's the point, what's the cause and how sustainable it is. My skepticism stem from 1) a sudden surge in return coming from margin expansion where there hasn't been any track record to back it up 2) PMetal in a commodity industry as a price taker (not giver) 3) The mercy of aluminium price which no one can possibly predict 4) A current valuation of $20 bil (EV) on an earnings of $500 mil? That feels a bit hard to swallow at 20x especially when margin is at all time high, unless this is the new normal. This is a bit of deva ju when Latitude is heading towards $10 and everyone is catching at the top of ROE/margin expansion.

I'm not saying PMetal will suffer the fate of Latitude hence the discussion right now for the benefits of everyone. I prefer intellectual honesty. Not willful ignorance.

Posted by telusdansuci > 2017-11-02 18:32 | Report Abuse

Terima kasih banyak-banyak kepada @Happy 123 & @ tianjin kerana sudah lama memberi sokongan dan dorongan dalam forum Press Metal ini . Sekarang adalah masa bagi memberi tumpuan kenaikan harga saham yang ada pada Press Metal . Masa itu emas , oleh itu jangan membuang masa dengan melayan yang bukan-bukan . Mari , esok bersama-sama kami menyaksikan kehebatan dan kekuatan yang ada pada Press Metal ini . Hari ini Pmb Tech sudah naik 48 sen . Press Metal boleh dan tetap boleh .

Posted by tianjin > 2017-11-02 18:56 | Report Abuse

Mr. Yeo , perhaps you are trying to exhibit that you're a learned intellectual and a savvy investment guru but you received a cultural shock from my opinion to Mr. Telus and it must have impacted your intellectual ego , too bad if it's so .
I am sure every participant in an open forum anticipate positive and negative perception when we put forward our view points .
Let us be realistic on our investment decision , that is no 3rd party should be responsible for your own investment ! Thus , I always practice my investment is my decision .
I am not an active forum participant or a business/investment expert or intellectual therefore , I am not an ego seeker nor I am a religion fanatic , a diehard sports club fans or an Apple loyal . I am just a humble small little investor who understand a little bit of investment golden rules like never listen to any person who ask what to buy and what to sell , always uphold the principle of "my money , my decision" , "The Art of investment is to realize profit " and many more .
Mr. Yeo , I respect your above comments with my open hearts and it's your democratic forum rights to do so . You have a wonderful evening .

Posted by FarmbesFlyer > 2017-11-02 19:25 | Report Abuse

I invested this stock long long time ago. My cost only 6 cents based on today share price. 60 x over profit! Enough is enough, time to clear all Pmetal! Wish u all the best. Good luck.

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2017-11-02 19:30 | Report Abuse

sell

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-11-02 19:38 | Report Abuse

Why would that be a shock when one cannot sit down and discuss matter? I am yet to hear anything about your analysis on PMetal. I have listed out my reasons why I would not buy PMetal at this price (not any other price). I put it in simple words to avoid in case someone calling me arrogant or trying to be too intellect. Yes I acknowledge you are humble, you never listen to others when investing, so why is it so hard for me to hear your investment thesis? Is it too much to ask? Should we all just come in here and hurray hurray, is this realistic?

And @ telusdansuci, sounds like you are not willing to state your thesis. I am not sure why it is such a guarded secret but anyway. Oh yes, im shocked when telusdansuci says 'Masa itu emas , oleh itu jangan membuang masa dengan melayan yang bukan-bukan'. As if because masa itu emas, so everyone should pat yourself and congratulate one another. And again I am stating my view, without being arrogant, in case I getting called that again, you are welcome to tell me your viewpoint. I think if masa itu emas, then I think I would spend some money and buy 'Thinking, Fast and Slow' by Daniel Kahneman, What I learned losing a million dollar by Jim Paul, and spend more time reading than congratulating one another.

Posted by telusdansuci > 2017-11-02 20:31 | Report Abuse

Only listen to the CEO's message and keep on follow up with Press Metal Aluminium Holding Berhad . My prediction for tomorrow target price Rm 5.00 or above . I don't use mathematics calculation because if i do so at last i will be a loser . Mathematics calculation is not suitable for me , only use prediction . Only terima kasih banyak-banyak to Press Metal and not others . Press Metal memang boleh dan tetap boleh . Elak cabar-mencabar dalam forum ini . Siapa menang atau kalah tidak penting bagi saya . Yang penting sekali adalah pandai memilih kaunter sepertimana saya memilih Press Metal Aluminium Holding Berhad dan pegangnya kuat-kuat sehingga sekarang .

Posted by happy123 > 2017-11-02 21:18 | Report Abuse

Pmetal can be labelled as a commodity stock, the bet on the current price is that the Al price can be sustained or even higher (of course efficient operations and strong market demand are the key success factors too). There is always different school of thoughts, we don't have to agree or disagree with the other as this is own $. I certainly agree that we should read more to gain better knowledge (some of comments and questions posted are very obvious from some with ZERO knowledge in investing and simply follow the crowd, this is the group who is at high risk in my opinion)

Posted by wikioon > 2017-11-02 21:48 | Report Abuse

The pricing of a share price is not just the indication of the "current value" or "fair value" of the company. What is supporting the current bullish run of PMETAL is the "EXPECTED VALUE" of the company and the prospective performance. For every investor, their main aim is to enter into the market BEFORE the company's share price has reached its "fair value". Yes, EV is very steep at 20x but that's just basing the fact on previous quarterly revenue and profit, not based on upcoming qtr results.

What is driving this bull run is two things, revenue growth and profit growth:
1) Revenue growth, very simple, LME alu prices are trending upwards, expected further inc - forecast 2018 : 2,200 pmt - 2,300 pmt . not only that, as with most company's hedging policy pmetal would have alrdy hedged their lme prices 6 mths prior (circa 2,000 - 2,100 pmt) and are now in line to further hedge their position at the current 2,150 levels.

2) Profit growth, pmetal to reduce cost through construction of the conveyer belt to Samalaju port , decreasing transportation cost . we find they have also reduced their interest cost by raising a USD400m bond (at a 9.5x oversubcription - this means global investors are willing to lend PMETAL a circa USD4 BIL in debt capital funding = RM 16 BIL = the current mkt cap). In layman terms, have u ever heard of a bank willing to lend you 100% of yr share value? This is a major sign of confidence from NOT local inv but GLOBAL inv.
ps the bonds was raised at a very low rate of 4.8% ( for a B rating note) - major cost savings in terms of interest repayment esp. with it being in USD not MYR - another layer of natural hedging

3) Other factors, pmetal inclusion in FBM KLCI by end of year, rubber stamping their status as a BLUE CHIP company, meaning all major INDEX fund investors will be buying into PMETAL when they trade the index. thats the reason why its such a big deal to be included in the KLCI

4) Last factor (personal opinion) , possibility of special dividend/bonus issue - at the current valuation, a 0.15c DPS is too low in contrast to EPS. i will not be surprised to see announcement of special div of another 0.15 (on top of interim ) to bump up to full year 0.75c.
Bonus issue on the line too - at 5.00 we might see a 1:1 or even 2:5 - to bring it down to 2.5 / 2.00 price range. then giving a 0.1c dps = 4c full yr (roughly 2% div return at rm 2.00 value)

Is this analysis good enough?

Posted by luckyjb > 2017-11-02 21:48 | Report Abuse

happy 123,thanks for sharing.

Posted by happy123 > 2017-11-02 22:21 | Report Abuse

Glad to see some nice posts from Tianjin, Ricky and of course Wikioon too. Each of us has to digest the content and decide ourselves, there is no right or wrong.... Even the best analyst in the world also can bet wrongly. Cheers to everyone and happy counting $

Posted by Alexanderspore > 2017-11-02 22:51 | Report Abuse

2005, right issue 2 for 1, bonus issue 1 for 1, share split 1 to 1

2014 bonus issue 1 for 1

2016 share split and bonus issue, your holding multiply by 2.8

I.e. Prior to 2004, if you hold 10,000 shares(RM1.00) your holding become 60,000 (10*1.5*2*2）

2014， 60000*2 become 120,000
2016, 120000*2.8 become 336,000

Current price: 336,000*4870 ---- RM1,636,320.00

2004, -- RM10,000
2017 --- RM1,636,320.00

Can you calculate your investment return in Pmetal ?!

Posted by Bizfuneng > 2017-11-03 00:24 | Report Abuse

My 2cts point of view. Sorry can provide fantastic fundamentals.
-------------------------


A– Jul 2016 Pmetal bonus issue and share split. Share price from RM3.94 adjusted to MR1.41. Though in term of Market Cap it was neutral but this introduce two minor advantages :-
• Improving stock liquidity
• Share price more affordable to retail investors

B-All pots running full capacity.
Phase 1 smelter running normally – 120ktpa
Phase 2 smelter down for 6 mths due to fire and running back end 2015
Phase 3 fully commissioned in May 2016.
Jul 2016 all pots running full capacity of 760Ktpa
Dec 14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17F Dec18F
Smelting Cap phase 1(tpa) 120000 120000 120000 120000 120000
Smelting Cap ph 2 &3(tpa) 320000 320000 640000 640000 640000
Phase 1 utilization (%) 75 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.0
Phase 2 &3 utilization (%) 98.5 90.0 86.6 99.0 99.0
USD to MYR 3.27 3.91 4.00 3.80 3.70

C-Internal reorganization – focus on productivity.

D- Al price bottoming out forming new support level abv USD1600/ton.

E- With Phase 3 smelted fully commissioned and Phase 2 smelter back into full production significant cost saving derived from sharing of common infrastructure and management.

F- All plants run at full capacity and all-in-aluminum price risen to USD 1745/ton in 2H16 giving major earning trajectory.

G- Projected cheaper alumina in FY17 – lower material cost

H- Commission of Samalaju Port capable of handling Panamax vessels in Jul 2017 helping to cut inland logistics and shipping costs.

J-Expecting to generate FCFof>MYR1b pa

K-Management verbally committed dividend payout at 30-50%

L- Sensitivity analysis done by RHB – Al prices is volatile and no one can correctly predict the price movement. Also USD/MYR rate needed to be consider as well. A comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis executed by RHB has slightly lifted my many concerns.

M- High Leverage ratio
High spending on the projects is a big concern with free cash generation. At end Sep 2016 D/E=1.24. FCF generation >MYR1b per year – can use to redeem its borrowing.
FCF – also can use to reward shareholders as management verbally committed 30-50 payout ratio.

N-Current Al price surpassing USD2100.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-11-03 07:11 | Report Abuse

@Happy123 - That's my qualms. 1. The ability to predict macroeconomics i.e oil, currency, commodities is at best as flipping coin. I haven't know many ppl can do that. And if he does, he will have a better success trading commodity futures i.e CPO futures. 2. Looking at AL price trend is easy, we extrapolate in linear term, hence the share price surge. But how many can answer if the current valuation has already incorporate the expectation of AL price? So these 2 things, the inability to predict future Al price and the challenge of differentiating between fundamental from market expectation means I have a lot of reservation paying at this price.

We don't need to travel far back to understand our inability to predict macroeconomic. Look at forex trend on furniture stocks in 2015. Many stocks run up 100-300% during the depreciation in MYR against USD, but guess what most of them plunged 50% or more thereafter despite little movement in MYR vs USD - which sits at MYR4.2=USD1, not far from the peak of MYR4.5. Remember those that bought FLBHD at $3 and Latitude at $9?

This shows two things. The sensationalism of stock market (in short-term). The market tend to magnify (exaggerate) the effect of macroeconomic. Riding the trend is fun as long you don't get caught when the music stops. This also shows the non-linearity of market. Al price can continue to trend up but there's many more things that can kill you than you would expected.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-11-03 07:51 | Report Abuse

@wikioon - You are right, before it reaches 'fair value'. So I think I partly explained my uneasiness on above reply to Happy123, especially when it come to what implies fair value, since everyone have access to the same information. Which means if the current price of $20 bil is considered 'undervalued', then that means the consensus is wrong (since the crowd haven't priced in everything yet), and anyone that willing to buy at this price needs to be right.

So some opinions on your analysis.
1. You are on point with this, it is driven by Al price. Then again, who can predict where will the Al price be 3, 5, 10 years from now? Paying 20x imply one is betting this trend will stay this course for at least 5 years or more. Because if this trend only lasted for a year, the extra cash flow generate from this brief boom of AL price will have a low chance to justify a 20x valuation.

2. During the great mining boom in 2004-2009, analysts predict China's appetite will keep iron ore price continue well into 2020. Bankers queued up to lend cheap credits to mining companies to open more mining sites and to shipping companies to build more bulk ships. At present, 6 years after the bust, shipping companies are still limping along with no recovery in sight. Bankers are not that different from investors, when things are going up they lend more money. The contrary is just as true, in general, when capital (debt or equity) flows into an industry, the ROE of the industry falls, and vice versa. But I must point out PMetal is smart (nothing to do with how good theyre) to ask for funding at time like this when credit is cheap and the share price is high.

3. Point 3 on inclusion as blue chip has no effect on fundamentals so I don't think that's worth a discussion.

4. Dividend. Yes if ROE continue at this high level, assume no eye-sore competitions who wants to take some share from PMetal and assume Al price will continue this trend - 2 things that I have many doubts - then yes they will pay out higher dividend. But do keep in mind. Pmetal operates in a heavy capex industry. How much they can pay dividend ultimately goes back to long-term ROE.

But overall these are healthy discussions of seeing things from multiple viewpoints.

Posted by tony__kow > 2017-11-03 08:32 | Report Abuse

get ready...

Posted by telusdansuci > 2017-11-03 08:35 | Report Abuse

Jangan mudah terpengaruh dengan kata-kata manis yang diucapkan oleh segelintir golongan yang secara tiba-tiba muncul di sini . Jika tidak , kamu akan tinggal ke belakangan . Pandai mengucap dan menulis di sini tidak semestinya kamu pandai dalam memilih kaunter yang betul . Umpamanya, ubat yang mahal bukan semestinya baik dan ubat yang murah bukan semestinya tidak baik . Kalau tidak faham , sudahlah, ya . Fantastic 3QTR FY17 is going to announce soon .I increase my target price from Rm 5.00 - 5.50 . Press Metal always boleh dan tetap boleh . Sekali lagi kena ingat jangan mudah terpengaruh dan mudah ' dicuci otak ' oleh kata-kata yang manis .

Posted by tony__kow > 2017-11-03 08:49 | Report Abuse

2018 is good year for pmetal....too

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-11-03 08:57 | Report Abuse

@Bizfuneng see that's really good. You know more about the details than me. The way I would do it is I will pick 5-10 public listed (https://www.thebalance.com/the-10-biggest-aluminum-producers-2012-2339722) Alcoa comes to mind as one of the well run ones. Looks at their long-term ROIC/ROE level (most 10-15%) and start asking "Why is PMetal register 17-25% ROE/ROIC when others can't?" Drill into the details, what is the advantage, is it sustainable. Because the last thing you want is to think "PMetal is different than other" without knowing the specific. Once you have a rough idea of long-term ROIC, you would know on ballpark the cash flow it can generate and hence the valuation.

Again just to say since there seems to be many investors fanatical about the stocks they own. I have doubt earnings a satisfactory return at the current price point. But at a certain low enough price, considering if I dont have a better opportunities out there, I'll be loading up on PMetal. But not at this price.

Posted by tony__kow > 2017-11-03 09:00 | Report Abuse

stay focus....ignore noise

Posted by Bizfuneng > 2017-11-03 09:05 | Report Abuse

It is ok to hv opposite view. I c nothing wrong with Ricky Yeo"s inputs at all. It is up to individual whether to consider his points. I wud apprec he is playing devil advocate. It prompts u to think deeper and perhaps on your nx investment u can b a little wiser.

As for Pmetal most of us here really rewarded till yday very handsomely......really very handsomely.

Posted by tony__kow > 2017-11-03 09:10 | Report Abuse

pass five it will fly

Posted by LilyLL > 2017-11-03 09:13 | Report Abuse

Wow! High up to 4.94 drop back to 4.900

Posted by wikioon > 2017-11-03 09:14 | Report Abuse

@Ricky Yeo Just like to say, I understand your point of view. It's very simple, these discussions from both sides are good but regardless for you, its for a slightly different reason.

The main qualms that you have is largely dependent on your INVESTING STRATEGY. you are not willing to value the company at its current price, thats fair (just basic demand supply model). you think that the LME AL price upward trend is unsustainable, yes its true in trading/investing ntg is set in stone. you think that the mkts are overvaluing pmetal , possibly - given recent price surges.

what i don't understand is, which company is not subjected to market conditions and global prices. airasia depends on travel demand, competitive pricing, margin compression ; banking depends on loan performance, low deposit cost, high revenue stream ; every company is subjected to an external factor - commodity stocks are no different (commodity price, raw material cost, cost efficiency). your opinion doesnt really dissolve anything other than the FUNDAMENTALS of pmetal have not yet convinced you to enter the market at this price.

Let me express this time, what are the fundamentals and not speculative factors :
1) pmetal is the largest aluminium smelter in south east asia, with capacity of more about 80m-100m tonnes per year with a globally competitive cost structure (you have to und more on how smleting industry works, how pmetal have secured a 20 yr cheap electricity deal)

2) pmetal gearing has dropped from 1.3x to approx 1.0x. for a high capex industry this gearing ratio is considered VERY low. your second point on funding. it seems you have not been following pmetal for too long. this is not a NEW funding exercise to fund their capital expenses, this exercise took place 5 years back when they are building their phase 3 samalaju/bintulu plants. the USD note exercise is merely a COST restructuring exercise, to re service their previous loans (lay man version: they borrowed 5.5% last time, eg, now they reservice at 4.8%) - very easy that is a 0.7% per annum cost saving on a USD400m=RM1.6B loan, even a new investor can calculate that is a RM12 mil cost saving already.

3) though manufacturing is a high capex industry, the case cant be said for pmetal. they have alrdy consistently embark upon cost saving strategies :
-low electricity prices
-construction of conveyer belt to save on transportation cost
-economies of scale (maximum capacity of 100% from all 3 smelting companies)

4) management team has also indicated they will be venturing upstream to higher valued items, such as producing billets (not just ingots) - a new revenue stream

Posted by Teapot > 2017-11-03 09:17 | Report Abuse

took a roller-coaster ride. from 4.93 to 4.84 and back to 4.92

Posted by Bizfuneng > 2017-11-03 09:19 | Report Abuse

Ricky,TQ as usual. I always apprec ur inputs. I entering not at d present price.....much much lower. I had limited knowledge on DCFA but what being done by RHB to me make sense on the share value. So the bonus issue and the share splits that came along multiplied my holding many folds. The appreciation and run up of the share prices perhaps is luck and enriches my holding. Perhaps again my luck and opportunity crosses created wealth for me. I shall review all ur inputs for my continuous learning.

Posted by telusdansuci > 2017-11-03 09:21 | Report Abuse

Orang sibuk buat duit di sini jangan engkau sibuk bagi alasan di sini . Pandai bukan semesti niat dia yang baik . Betul-betul kena ingat , jangan mudah terpengarruh dengan kata-kata manis oleh segelintir golongan di sini . Press Metal sentiasa boleh dan tetap boleh . Press Metal tidak seperti yang dulu , sekarang penuh dengan pembangunan . Terima kasih banyak-banyak hanya kepada Press Metal sahaja . Tengok Pmb Tech sekarang . Nanti sampai Press Metal punya turn .

Posted by LilyLL > 2017-11-03 09:40 | Report Abuse

Confirm break 5.00 before 10.00 am

Posted by tony__kow > 2017-11-03 09:51 | Report Abuse

ya....no more <5

Posted by salman > 2017-11-03 09:55 | Report Abuse

already break 5 at 9.51am...Press Metal boleh

Posted by elvin88 > 2017-11-03 09:56 | Report Abuse

Cheer up Pmetal, awaiting you bonus issue again

Posted by tony__kow > 2017-11-03 09:57 | Report Abuse

sit tight n wait for QR

Posted by happy123 > 2017-11-03 10:01 | Report Abuse

I sold 4.22, 4.35. 4.6 and even 4.85 yesterday.....and it's hitting rm5 now. I put in RM200k for 100k shares years ago, based on Alexander's nice computation, I would have portfolio of RM32m now if I hold everything till today :)

Though my portfolio is significantly less today, I'm glad I still have some. Cheers to all invested and a happy weekend ahead

Posted by rayjafar > 2017-11-03 10:14 | Report Abuse

hi...I need a favor from u guys. Anybody know when is the 4th q results will be out ? any insight ? tq in advance

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-11-03 10:20 | Report Abuse

@wikioon You are correct, everything depends on market conditions and investment is inherently probabilistic not deterministic. So I am saying the probability of me making a satisfactory return at the given price of PMetal is low. I didn't say it never will or you will lose money for sure. I am just saying the odds is not in my favour. If you bought it at an extremely low price, you will have a great odds that no matter what happens it will still be a good investment. It is relative.

So as I point out to Bizfuneng, I prefer an outward-inward analysis because that reduce my bias. That is I start by looking other aluminium producers, similar or larger than PMetal and ask what makes PMetal so special that others cannot copy or replicate? If I can't identify then the normalised ROE should be similar to other producers, not what PMetal is telling you right now at 25%. Since other producers can barely hit 15% long-term. You have to identify normalised earnings. Latitude earnings in 2015 is not normal, inflated by forex as an example. But many use that as a base to extrapolate.

And back to your point, you are right everything depends on market condition. But in some situation odds will be in my favour. Say due to low commodity price, the commodity producer ASP is running below replacement cost. Even if I can't predict exactly when the trend will reverse, but I can forecast that it will not last. The situation has a good chance of normalising upward. I can still be wrong but my downside is somewhat protected from low market expectation.

So for point 1-3, they are all potential reasons that explain why PMetal has such a high ROE compare to competitors. But they are hypothesis to be tested. Electricity, transportation cost and economic of scale are not related to capex, those are savings, capex is the result of high fixed assets. To give an idea, PMetal 10 years accumulate depreciation is $1.5 bil +/- vs Earnings of $1.8 bil (Gurufocus). That is 85-90% of earnings going into capex for maintaining revenue (not including growing). They spent $4.8 bil in capex over 10 years for maintenance and growth.

Posted by astalavista > 2017-11-03 10:20 | Report Abuse

Yeah 5 !...coming 6 :)

Posted by Bizfuneng > 2017-11-03 10:20 | Report Abuse

happy123.....as long as we profited we shud be happy. U can't live back the past. Either we choose to take profit now or let the profit flows for greater profit later. All is individual choice. Important thing is dun live to regret ur decision. I did once on KESM but I was still happy as I profited fm it. I moved onto Pmetal. I m happy I m now rewarded handsomely by Pmetal. I arrive to the same decision making again sell or hold Pmetal? Haha........

Posted by tianjin > 2017-11-03 10:21 | Report Abuse

Cheers to you happy123 , I m really feeling happy123 for you . If you were to be too figure centric , short sighted in investment and have no confident in Pmetal's management , I don't think you will not hold it till this date . Proud of you to be Pmetal's long term shareholder .
@wikioon , you certainly did your home work well before investing in Pmetal . Cheers to you too .

Posted by telusdansuci > 2017-11-03 10:22 | Report Abuse

Finally Press Metal reached Rm 5.00 - 5.01 . Who do you want to listen , the CEO or ' Pakar-pakar ' saham ? Kalau tak silap saya harga tutup bagi Press Metal hari ini Rm 5.00 atau lebih . Press Metal always boleh dan tetap boleh .

Posted by truthseeker516 > 2017-11-03 10:26 | Report Abuse

@happy123 sifu please teach us how to spot good stock like Pmetal next time:D:D