Report: RECOMMENDED: BUY TARGET PRICE: MYR 5.30 PRICE: MYR 4.43 The strengthening of aluminium prices has prompted us to raise our 2018-2019 earnings estimates by 13-33%. Nonetheless, we are maintaining our 2017 earnings forecast due to forward hedging. With its market capitalisation now in excess of MYR16bn, we also believe that the stock could be included in the FBMKLCI Index by the end of this year. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a higher DCF-derived TP of MYR5.30 (from MYR3.80, 20% upside).
Aluminium prices surpassing USD2,100/MT mark. Although management has taken up a hedging policy up to 1H18, the recent run-up in aluminium prices has opened up opportunities for management to hedge at much higher aluminium prices for 2H18 and beyond. Currently, aluminium spot contract at the London Metal Exchange is hovering at above the USD2,100/MT mark, the highest in more than three years, as China imposes restrictions on industrial output over winter to reduce smog pollution.
Possible inclusion in the FBM-KLCI Index. With the recent uptrend of its share price, Press Metal’s market capitalisation is now in excess of MYR16bn. With the company’s market capitalisation now ranked as 24th among FBMKLCI constituents, we believe the stock could be included in the index at the end of this year. We also think the stock could be included in regional benchmark indices. Having said that, local institutional holdings remain low at around 9%, while foreign institutional holdings are at 5.5%.
Key drivers include:
Commissioning of Samalaju Port in July (capable of handling Panamax vessels) would help to cut inland logistics and shipping costs;
Increased value-added production may help to enhance profitability;
Upward bias for the all-in aluminium price, with the spot contract at the London Metal Exchange hovering at above the USD2,100/MT mark;
Prolonged weakness in MYR benefits the company as a third of its production costs are denominated in MYR while revenues are in USD.
Forecast and risks. We revise up our aluminium price assumption to USD1,925/MT (from USD1,700/MT) for 2018, and to USD2,118/MT (from USD1,726/MT) for 2019 to reflect the increase in aluminium prices.As a result, our 2018-2019 earnings estimates are upgraded by 13-33%. Our 2017 earnings forecast is maintained. Key risks include downward pressures on aluminium prices, and a sharp weakening in the USD that may hurt its profitability. In addition, unexpected power supply interruptions at its smelting plant may damage machineries and disrupt its operations.
Maintain BUY with higher TP. We continue to like the company and maintain our BUY recommendation. Our DCF-derived TP is revised up to MYR5.30 after factoring in the revision in earnings estimates. Our new TP implies 2018F P/E of 23x, which is close to +2SD of its historical P/E – we believe this is justified given Press Metal’s projected 3-year earnings CAGR of 36%.
havent been posting any trade on i3. things going great! i bought pmetal on 15sep 3.5946. i sold it today at 4.80. 33% gain in 45days. you guys have fun. thank you PMETAL.
Either by today or tomorrow Press Metal may break TP Rm 5.00 , if PMB TECH break above Rm 4.00 . Press Metal memang boleh ,pasti boleh dan tetap boleh . Terima kasih banyak-banyak to Press Metal .
Do you know why PRESS METAL and PMB TECH suddenly going up so fast ? No need to explain also we understand already ( sama-sama faham sudahlah ) . To get big ANG POW from Press Metal , you should strongly trust the management because this company really run by a very good teams . " Pemimpin-pemimpin yang sihat juga melahirkan syarikat yang sihat ". Terima kasih banyak-banyak .
telusdansuci - Care to elaborate more how do you define 'very good teams'? Because the share price has run up? The earnings? Or something else. As my understanding, share price sometimes has little correlation with the capability of management
yes agree with telusdansuci, they have good management. The management know how to get bigger exposure for the company to get fund and use the best way to fund not by loan but by other way, this is what i heard from friends, that's y i invest in this company...
Yes I am interested to know. Pmetal earning growth looks impressive from $20 mil to $480 mil in the span of 10 years but that tells us nothing. It's like saying I ran 20km yesterday. Certainly impressive, but how long did it take? 1 hour? 24 hour?
Over the past 10 years, Pmetal injected approx $5 bil capital into the business (equity + debts), so measured it this way against their earning growth, the incremental return over 10 years averaging 9%+ is nothing to shout about. Hence I curious to know why someone regard Pmetal has great management for generating 9% long-term return. Comparatively, there are companies that consistently generated 15-20% long-term return.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Awet91
1,934 posts
Posted by Awet91 > 2017-11-01 09:48 | Report Abuse
Keep sikit2 la untuk bonus issue