EPF sometimes make big mistakes by taking profits early like during the run up of the gloves mania, they sold quite a lot of top glove and Harta shares early. They are making the same mistakes here again.
Although end of the year oil palm production is usually high and crude palm oil price is expected to drop. However, as predicted by Malaysian Meteorological Department the heavy rainfall is expected in early November until January next year. Long and more frequent heavy rainfall can disrupt harvesting of oil palm fruits thus causing production to drop and palm oil price will continue to surge.
it just a pull back from overbought,uptrend to resume strongly thereafter.diwali is coming India the largest importer is slashing import tax amidst the opening of economy
the world are poorer now ,even the American,Europeans,and world most populous countries like Indonesia India,Pakistan,Bangladesh,China,are consuming .the young bull has born.soon to grow up to bull or even super bull just like tophlove with extended super bull with cpo price hv not seen before at least my generation since dotcom bubble 2000.
could be forming a cup and handle pattern soon and the break up point is at 1.27 - 1.29.from the lowest at 0.98 to the highest point at 1.27(1.27 - 0.98= 0.29) If breakup at 1.29 ,(1.29 +0.29=1.58) tp price = 1.58 next target. Correct me if I am wrong
EPF still has a lot of TSH shares. Selling and buying small quantities are just to reorganise portfolios..to maximise return on every dollar. As long as you invest in TSH as shareholder with a longer term view, you should make good money in the 2 quarters. it will be ok. Dont worry.
Investment in palmoil listed companies got many tier offensive & defensive stategy mah!
Offensive
1. benefit from high oil price reap huge profit improvement, strong cash flow generation and strong and healthy balance sheet
2. Strong dividend will be forthcoming.
3. The govt of indonesia & msia have restricted new palmoil plantation development thus limited future plantation supply in the future which is good as it will lend support to its price loh!
Defensive
1. Land has a finite supply which is a good hedge against inflation
2. Currently plantation trade at a deep undervalue thus give big margin of safety for investor loh!
3. The current of hype of ESG trend which is unsustainable....give a good sound contrarian opportunity for a very strong rebound & upside for plantation going fwd loh!
if sales of palm oil land has successfully completed at end of 1st quarter 2022 .that is a good news as the 4thquarter results for 2021 is due to release on end of February 2022 with high cpo price of rm5k+.The profit of the land sales is estimated to be rm108 mill which would be pricing in during the run up to the February 2022 results.
moneySIFU Hi Mr Calvin, look like you are almost in every palm oil plantation counters.
If can only choose 3, which 3 you will put money at? 18/10/2021 11:13 PM
MoneySIFU,
This is a Million Dollar Question?
Wish I know which of these will be the Best
1) TSH RESOURCES
Three Companies in One
i) EKOWOOD is in TSH (At that time TSH was Rm1.94 when EKWOOD was taken Private ii) TSH is Top 2nd Owner of InnoPrise Plant iii) TSH has its own Plantation Assets in Palm Oil & Forest Concessions (Rm400 Millions in Biological Assets alone)
2) THPLANT
This small Cap has over 240,000 Acres of Plantation Lands book value only Rm4K to Rm10K
3) TAANN Very Honest Company Can sleep soundly every night as most people here are Honest, Upright Christians.
What are the positive factors favoring the oil palm industry especially the upstream oil palm companies with huge amount of oil pal estates:
1. RM to USD is > RM4.15++ (Oil palm export proceeds in USD will bring back more RM to their kitty).
2. Good CPO price > RM4.5K/ton to RM5.0K/ton ++. (Same efforts, but selling at extremely good prices. Laughing all the way to the bank).
3. Most raw materials & costs of productions are sourced locally in RM including fertilizers as Malaysia has a strong resource-based economies as Malaysia has been in oil palm industry business for more than 50-60 years and so almost everything is local.
4. Upstream oil palm business is simple & no need for a Rocket Scientist to teach. Follow the basics, follow SOp & get them right.
5. For gold, steel, etc, closing stocks are based on purchasers from suppliers of them. (So, you realize when the gold, steels, etc are very high in prices, high profits are reported & when their closing stocks are high - Quantity x Closing Stock Price Valuation).
6. For oil palm estates, the closing stocks are on the trees & keep on harvesting from its own sources (oil palm estates), so no need to buy unless you are skewed more towards CPO extraction milling & trading. Keep producing, harvesting & get more values from the trees.
7. So, for the same efforts, for the same marginal increase in costs (fertilisers & labour), the operating profits generated as explained in above are 1.5 fold,2 folds, 2.5 folds, etc.
8. I sit comfortable with my simple business model analysis with oil palm industry & the oil palm companies I invest in for long term (LT) & know that I will reap from my patience & be rewarded.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
yemes35202etoymail
162 posts
Posted by yemes35202etoymail > 2021-10-12 16:11 | Report Abuse
80,000mt x 21%oer x rm4800avg cpo price= rm80.64mil/month x 12 = rm806mil.