Not a fan of ESOS as well. Id rather they just give cash bonus, but used in moderation (and not abused), it can be good in aligning employees to the well being of the company and shareholders.
On the dropping of price.
I will quote Howard marks on this.
To succeed in investing, you need 3 things. 1) The ability to estimate the intrinsic value of an investment. 2) The ability to hold and buy more as prices fall. 3) And most importantly, to be right.
I don't think im wrong. So ill buy more.
My cost is 1.55. I may buy more. However, i think PH will win this election, which will cause market crash for a few weeks or months depending on the smoothness of the transition. So im also saving up more cash.
stklearner something not right with this stock, inspite of the apparent rosy P&L, the share has been sliding down slowly since its peak in May 2017. It could mean the high growth of 23% and 37.5% for 2016 & 2017, cannot be repeated for 2018.Also, some major holder could be selling for reasons unknown. 03/04/2018 15:04
Nobody holding more than 5% is selling. You look at the volume, its the tiny retailers selling. And here's the thing about the markets. Prices in the short to mid term is set by the small, illogical and intolerant few.
Only in the long term do we know what its really worth.
No comment on if you should sell or not, if you cannot hold, sell until you can hold. Or if you're unbearably scared and unsure, sell all.
If it goes up to my FV a year, 2 years or 3 years from today. Take it as lesson learnt.
If 3 years from now its down to 30 sen due to fraud etc (Or whatever that fundamental affects the company) in the company. Take it as a lesson in diversification. Because what you don't know that you don't know is the one that will kill you.
TakeProfits Walauyeh, this stock sliding down most days....It's following the whole market drop-down.....Also could be a,major shareholder selling. Wah my average 1.30. Jon what should I do.? Anyone with any comments. ?? Bit worried and concerned.( .puluh keluar lar). Is the markets actions a harbinger of BN loss and a PH win!! 03/04/2018 19:37
I make predictions on the market and the price because i can't help it, its human nature.
But i don't make my decisions solely on them. I will only lean on it at best.
I used to be 100% invested. Now, im 93% invested, due to spare cash i have not put in. Optimally, id like to be 80-85% invested by the time election results come out. Do note, im not selling any shares, the new money coms from investors or my own income.
But i'm also aware, that the biggest gains is made in the buying during bear markets, so i need to keep this in mind as well, and don't be scared.
This is why i love love love financial institutions so much.
The funny thing about life is, the more money people make, the more they borrow!! And this growth in income and amount being borrowed tend to be very closely linked up to a certain point.
I mean, when you're worth 500mil, you probably wont be borrowing so much on a percentage basis.
While a person worth say 2mil, probably has 1.7mil in debts.
A poor man borrows to buy proton, a middle class man borrows to buy BMW, and the rich man borrows to buy ferrari!
The more govt servants make, the more rcecap will grow. And will government servants make less in the future?
We have 1.6 million govt servants. That is 1.6 mil votes. I cannot think of even one democratic government in the history of the world, that won the next election once they have cut down the size or salary of their civil service.
No matter who wins, the civil service will stay this size. If PH wins, at best, instead of growing it by 10% cagr per annum (total amount of salary paid to civil servants) , they will slow it down to 5%, or freeze it unofficially.
martinam Jon, good news is gov servants are given 2 increments this year which will help to shore-up RCE. 04/04/2018 16:08
Perhaps you should think about it the other way around.
As prices fall, particularly in this bearish market sentiment with volatility at a high, it is not the time to enter the stock market. Essentially now is not the time to bottom fish, irrespective of how much different the intrinsic value you value it at.
When prices go up, and at least enter into a phase of consolidation, this is when you should enter the stock market.
In any event, I dont entirely agree with your opinion that as prices go up the risk of permanent loss of capital goes higher, if one were to buy a penny stock for example for little money compared to someone who buys nestle, is the risk of permanent loss of capital higher for the person who buys nestle?
if whole market,include KLCI suddenly drop a lot, big players try to generate follow thru panic sell, will rebound 1-2 days, at least 1/2, good time for the daring, but i do not follow this stk..just my view
I don't view volatility or price movements as any measure of risk. The only risk for me is unexpected permanent and adverse change in fundamentals, causing a permanent loss of capital.
I can do this because i only put super long term money in.
In all the time i've spent investing. I've never taken money out of my trading account. Even dividends all throw in. I look at all my companies as Sdn Bhd.
During the 2008 crisis, they were 3 periods of consolidation all the way down. And at the bottom, no one wanted to buy, except for warren buffet, who bought all the way down.
What you think is low, can go far far far lower. Or it can limit up tmr.
And when its at the very top, people cant wait to buy, but when it hits all time low, no one wants to even touch it.
"The error of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born not an infant, but a giant."
Arthur C. Pigou
"In economics and investing, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could."
Rudiger Dornbusch
What i know, because i admit i know nothing of the folly of men, and will never be able to predict price movements consistently enough to give me an edge, is that the price will move anywhere it wants.
The only thing i know consistently is my estimate on the range of intrinsic value and its discount to the price. The bigger the discount, the more ill buy. The lower it is, the less ill buy, or the more ill sell.
As always, don't go on margin. Its the only way you'll survive if this turns into a crisis.
Real daring is people who buy stocks near all time high, cause risk is the highest.
But of course, most people don't see it this way.
I'm very conservative and kiamsiap, that's why i only catch falling diamond knives! Ahahaha
stklearner if whole market,include KLCI suddenly drop a lot, big players try to generate follow thru panic sell, will rebound 1-2 days, at least 1/2, good time for the daring, but i do not follow this stk..just my view 04/04/2018 16:33
========================================================================== In any event, I dont entirely agree with your opinion that as prices go up the risk of permanent loss of capital goes higher, if one were to buy a penny stock for example for little money compared to someone who buys nestle, is the risk of permanent loss of capital higher for the person who buys nestle?
Congrats. to the daring buyers ! good to take profit while ahead, it may drop back to SQ 1 later in uncertain market, just my view..play long-term now will be rewarded with a declining portfolio of valuable stks..
Because this means, people like me will always have bargains to eat! ahah
Different strokes for different folks.
I still have not topped up any. Trying to stay disciplined. I told myself i want to gather 15%-20% cash by elections. Cause sure die then one, im fairly certain PH will win.
stklearner Congrats. to the daring buyers ! good to take profit while ahead, it may drop back to SQ 1 later in uncertain market, just my view..play long-term now will be rewarded with a declining portfolio of valuable stks.. 05/04/2018 16:33
Trump has announced another 100 billion worth of tariffs to be imposed on China last night. Dow Jones was not affected as the announcement was made after the trading session. whoever the Future fell.
Honestly, i very sien now. very little chance to buy cheap d.
But i think PH is going to win this round, and market is not expecting that. KLSE sure drop like fuck for that day. The goal is still to gather enough money by May.
As humans, we always compare to what happened recently. If i had alot of money now, id buy more, but like i said, waiting for elections. Cause if PH wipe BN, sure drop for a day or 2.
Yes,, the concentration of loans given to the top 5 borrowers , which are related corporations /cooperatives , total rm845.528 m of total loans rm911.767m is a red flag. market is always right,
As i said previously, The pot of gold may not be here, as one would expect, else all the fulltime analysts in IBs and private funds would not have miss out on this, just think... better run when ahead..
all the fulltime analysts in IBs and private funds already miss out hengyuan a year ago when it trade below RM5 yup EPF and PNB keep selling. Overseas analysis/funds keep buying latitude above RM4 but now only RM3.20 Do your own research do not blindly follow those so call analysis/funds
@gladiator do one's own research does not mean you ignore/dont consider fulltime analysts reports which often highlight pertinent factors that so call own research maybe ignorant off. It is often self deceiving to imagine that one's own research can be better than fulltime analysts,which gives a more complete view of things.
A case in point here is why a share with perceived intrinsic value of 2.46, has never touch rm2, and has been drifting down since mid 2017 . You may have read the latest ann. and dont see any issue with the fact that bulk of RCECAP' s loan of rm911m is concentrated in 3 companies, which uses receivables as collateral.
These are pertinent facts that most long-term investors would be concern with, but not short-term traders.
The record on chinese owned co. in BURSA shows that all have gone down the drain, in time. Hengyuan is only 1 yr under their mgmt and the share price have been pump up to rm19 and fallen as low as rm6.02. The reason for the temp rebound to rm8.93 is well known as it is widely discuss in hengyuan's many forums.expect to plunge down once the operators cabut at their own timing.
Sorry you missed the boat on latitude, used to be a high flyer for few years before 2016, but its a cyclical stk and all furniture stks are now in the same boat down drift.
i am here to learn (esp. from others mistakes) and not to shoot down any stocks..
it is IB analysts buy/sell calls that we need to be wary of , as it is meant for their clients/own advantage, not for small investors benefit. Their rpts that covers relevant factors to consider, are often valuable info.
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New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jon Choivo
3,668 posts
Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 11:33 | Report Abuse
Not a fan of ESOS as well. Id rather they just give cash bonus, but used in moderation (and not abused), it can be good in aligning employees to the well being of the company and shareholders.
On the dropping of price.
I will quote Howard marks on this.
To succeed in investing, you need 3 things.
1) The ability to estimate the intrinsic value of an investment.
2) The ability to hold and buy more as prices fall.
3) And most importantly, to be right.
I don't think im wrong. So ill buy more.
My cost is 1.55. I may buy more. However, i think PH will win this election, which will cause market crash for a few weeks or months depending on the smoothness of the transition. So im also saving up more cash.
Decisions, decisions, decisions.