Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 11:41 | Report Abuse

Nobody holding more than 5% is selling. You look at the volume, its the tiny retailers selling. And here's the thing about the markets. Prices in the short to mid term is set by the small, illogical and intolerant few.

Only in the long term do we know what its really worth.

No comment on if you should sell or not, if you cannot hold, sell until you can hold. Or if you're unbearably scared and unsure, sell all.

If it goes up to my FV a year, 2 years or 3 years from today. Take it as lesson learnt.

If 3 years from now its down to 30 sen due to fraud etc (Or whatever that fundamental affects the company) in the company. Take it as a lesson in diversification. Because what you don't know that you don't know is the one that will kill you.


TakeProfits Walauyeh, this stock sliding down most days....It's following the whole market drop-down.....Also could be a,major shareholder selling. Wah my average 1.30. Jon what should I do.? Anyone with any comments. ?? Bit worried and concerned.( .puluh keluar lar).
Is the markets actions a harbinger of BN loss and a PH win!!
03/04/2018 19:37

Posted by asdf > 2018-04-04 11:43 | Report Abuse

Jon, if you think the market will drop after will drop after PH win the election, then you should until then to buy.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 11:46 | Report Abuse

I make predictions on the market and the price because i can't help it, its human nature.

But i don't make my decisions solely on them. I will only lean on it at best.

I used to be 100% invested. Now, im 93% invested, due to spare cash i have not put in. Optimally, id like to be 80-85% invested by the time election results come out. Do note, im not selling any shares, the new money coms from investors or my own income.

But i'm also aware, that the biggest gains is made in the buying during bear markets, so i need to keep this in mind as well, and don't be scared.

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-04 12:25 | Report Abuse

@Jon Choivo
What is your estimate of RCE net worth per share or intrinsic value, that gives you confidence to top up, more ? tq

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 12:29 | Report Abuse

My estimated FV is 2.46

I write here how i value financial institutions. Its a long read btw.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/142803.jsp

Posted by davors > 2018-04-04 15:24 | Report Abuse

market seems to be panic to sell everything...
it is quite a good bargain for RCECAP now but will it still go lower?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 15:30 | Report Abuse

As always, if anyone here thinks my analysis on the fundamentals of RCECAP is wrong. And results in an intrinsic value of less than RM1.5.

Please let me know. I'd rather cut loss now.

Posted by tslee > 2018-04-04 15:44 | Report Abuse

Lol, PE already so low, still managed to drop so much today?

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-04 15:45 | Report Abuse

looks like broad based selling by big players, now shd be good time to buy at low, to avg, if got funds

Posted by Outliar > 2018-04-04 15:45 | Report Abuse

Now is most definitely not the time to buy

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-04 15:46 | Report Abuse

nothing to do wuth values now, trying to generate follow-thru panic sell, may rebound soon

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-04 15:47 | Report Abuse

KLCI also down 10 pts,

Posted by martinam > 2018-04-04 16:08 | Report Abuse

Jon, good news is gov servants are given 2 increments this year which will help to shore-up RCE.

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-04-04 16:09 | Report Abuse

wil drop to 60sen

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2018-04-04 16:10 | Report Abuse

LOL , JON CHOIVO NOT CONFIINDECE WHAT HE BUY NOW , WHAT A JOKE。

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 16:10 | Report Abuse

This is the funniest thing i find about the stock market.

As prices fall, and the risk of permanent loss of capital gets lower and lower. The more people do not want to buy.

While when price go up, and the risk of permanent loss of capital gets higher and higher, the more excited people are about buying!

Outliar Now is most definitely not the time to buy
04/04/2018 15:45

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 16:17 | Report Abuse

This is why i love love love financial institutions so much.

The funny thing about life is, the more money people make, the more they borrow!! And this growth in income and amount being borrowed tend to be very closely linked up to a certain point.

I mean, when you're worth 500mil, you probably wont be borrowing so much on a percentage basis.

While a person worth say 2mil, probably has 1.7mil in debts.

A poor man borrows to buy proton, a middle class man borrows to buy BMW, and the rich man borrows to buy ferrari!

The more govt servants make, the more rcecap will grow. And will government servants make less in the future?

We have 1.6 million govt servants. That is 1.6 mil votes. I cannot think of even one democratic government in the history of the world, that won the next election once they have cut down the size or salary of their civil service.

No matter who wins, the civil service will stay this size. If PH wins, at best, instead of growing it by 10% cagr per annum (total amount of salary paid to civil servants) , they will slow it down to 5%, or freeze it unofficially.

martinam Jon, good news is gov servants are given 2 increments this year which will help to shore-up RCE.
04/04/2018 16:08

Posted by Outliar > 2018-04-04 16:17 | Report Abuse

Perhaps you should think about it the other way around.

As prices fall, particularly in this bearish market sentiment with volatility at a high, it is not the time to enter the stock market. Essentially now is not the time to bottom fish, irrespective of how much different the intrinsic value you value it at.

When prices go up, and at least enter into a phase of consolidation, this is when you should enter the stock market.

In any event, I dont entirely agree with your opinion that as prices go up the risk of permanent loss of capital goes higher, if one were to buy a penny stock for example for little money compared to someone who buys nestle, is the risk of permanent loss of capital higher for the person who buys nestle?

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-04 16:32 | Report Abuse

Not the time to join in panic sell also

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-04 16:33 | Report Abuse

if whole market,include KLCI suddenly drop a lot, big players try to generate follow thru panic sell, will rebound 1-2 days, at least 1/2, good time for the daring, but i do not follow this stk..just my view

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 16:34 | Report Abuse

Ah here lies the difference between us.

I don't view volatility or price movements as any measure of risk. The only risk for me is unexpected permanent and adverse change in fundamentals, causing a permanent loss of capital.

I can do this because i only put super long term money in.

In all the time i've spent investing. I've never taken money out of my trading account. Even dividends all throw in. I look at all my companies as Sdn Bhd.

During the 2008 crisis, they were 3 periods of consolidation all the way down. And at the bottom, no one wanted to buy, except for warren buffet, who bought all the way down.

What you think is low, can go far far far lower. Or it can limit up tmr.

And when its at the very top, people cant wait to buy, but when it hits all time low, no one wants to even touch it.



"The error of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born not an infant, but a giant."

Arthur C. Pigou

"In economics and investing, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could."

Rudiger Dornbusch




What i know, because i admit i know nothing of the folly of men, and will never be able to predict price movements consistently enough to give me an edge, is that the price will move anywhere it wants.

The only thing i know consistently is my estimate on the range of intrinsic value and its discount to the price. The bigger the discount, the more ill buy. The lower it is, the less ill buy, or the more ill sell.

As always, don't go on margin. Its the only way you'll survive if this turns into a crisis.

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-04 16:35 | Report Abuse

KLCI down 38 pts, coordinate selling to cause panic..

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 16:37 | Report Abuse

Real daring is people who buy stocks near all time high, cause risk is the highest.

But of course, most people don't see it this way.

I'm very conservative and kiamsiap, that's why i only catch falling diamond knives! Ahahaha

stklearner if whole market,include KLCI suddenly drop a lot, big players try to generate follow thru panic sell, will rebound 1-2 days, at least 1/2, good time for the daring, but i do not follow this stk..just my view
04/04/2018 16:33

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-04 16:40 | Report Abuse

stagger buy in , in batches, not all at one go..

Posted by davors > 2018-04-04 16:42 | Report Abuse

@Outliar stating some good view and good point...

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 16:50 | Report Abuse

Outlier,

When i say price, i mean value.




==========================================================================
In any event, I dont entirely agree with your opinion that as prices go up the risk of permanent loss of capital goes higher, if one were to buy a penny stock for example for little money compared to someone who buys nestle, is the risk of permanent loss of capital higher for the person who buys nestle?

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-04 17:05 | Report Abuse

May need a few days for margin ac players to clear/top up before stable, bargains everywhere for longer term players,wow !

Posted by WaAdaLui > 2018-04-04 18:09 | Report Abuse

Is not about FA, Fears everywhere!!!!
在情绪面前, 基本面 更本不堪一击

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-05 16:33 | Report Abuse

Congrats. to the daring buyers ! good to take profit while ahead, it may drop back to SQ 1 later in uncertain market, just my view..play long-term now will be rewarded with a declining portfolio of valuable stks..

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-05 17:02 | Report Abuse

I'm greatly comforted by this comment.

Because this means, people like me will always have bargains to eat! ahah

Different strokes for different folks.

I still have not topped up any. Trying to stay disciplined. I told myself i want to gather 15%-20% cash by elections. Cause sure die then one, im fairly certain PH will win.

stklearner Congrats. to the daring buyers ! good to take profit while ahead, it may drop back to SQ 1 later in uncertain market, just my view..play long-term now will be rewarded with a declining portfolio of valuable stks..
05/04/2018 16:33

Posted by asdf > 2018-04-06 10:31 | Report Abuse

Trump has announced another 100 billion worth of tariffs to be imposed on China last night.
Dow Jones was not affected as the announcement was made after the trading session.
whoever the Future fell.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-06 10:34 | Report Abuse

Yeap. US markets will be very interesting to observe tonight.

I personally can't wait. Big discounts in the stock market dont come often.

If im lucky, this company might drop below RM1 for me.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2018-04-06 11:30 | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo, I like your comments, please keep it up, thank you.

Posted by asdf > 2018-04-07 06:04 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones Industrial Average
INDEXDJX: .DJI - 6 Apr., 5:03 pm GMT-4
23,932.76 decrease572.46 (2.34%)

Posted by Lim Tek Wai > 2018-04-09 15:50 | Report Abuse

Yes, I should not panic

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2018-04-09 21:34 | Report Abuse

Luckily Jon choivo No sold his rcecap , now stock market already give idiot 统治了 ，that why every share non stop dropping

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-10 10:57 | Report Abuse

Honestly, i very sien now. very little chance to buy cheap d.

But i think PH is going to win this round, and market is not expecting that. KLSE sure drop like fuck for that day. The goal is still to gather enough money by May.

Posted by Outliar > 2018-04-10 15:05 | Report Abuse

Very little chance to buy cheap? If your FV is 2.46 how is it not cheap at the current price???

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-10 15:13 | Report Abuse

I always want cheaper. Hahaha.

As humans, we always compare to what happened recently. If i had alot of money now, id buy more, but like i said, waiting for elections. Cause if PH wipe BN, sure drop for a day or 2.

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2018-04-10 20:36 | Report Abuse

Jon rce cap today announced what

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-10 21:00 | Report Abuse

Yes,, the concentration of loans given to the top 5 borrowers , which are related corporations /cooperatives , total rm845.528 m of total loans rm911.767m is a red flag.
market is always right,

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-10 21:21 | Report Abuse

security/collateral for rm845.132 m loans are receivables, RCECAP could b v. exposed

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-10 21:25 | Report Abuse

As i said previously, The pot of gold may not be here, as one would expect, else all the fulltime analysts in IBs and private funds would not have miss out on this, just think...
better run when ahead..

Posted by gladiator > 2018-04-10 23:37 | Report Abuse

all the fulltime analysts in IBs and private funds already miss out hengyuan a year ago when it trade below RM5 yup EPF and PNB keep selling. Overseas analysis/funds keep buying latitude above RM4 but now only RM3.20 Do your own research do not blindly follow those so call analysis/funds

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-11 06:57 | Report Abuse

@gladiator
do one's own research does not mean you ignore/dont consider fulltime analysts reports which often highlight pertinent factors that so call own research maybe ignorant off.
It is often self deceiving to imagine that one's own research can be better than fulltime analysts,which gives a more complete view of things.

A case in point here is why a share with perceived intrinsic value of 2.46, has never touch rm2, and has been drifting down since mid 2017 .
You may have read the latest ann. and dont see any issue with the fact that bulk of RCECAP' s loan of rm911m is concentrated in 3 companies, which uses receivables as collateral.

These are pertinent facts that most long-term investors would be concern with, but not short-term traders.

The record on chinese owned co. in BURSA shows that all have gone down the drain, in time.
Hengyuan is only 1 yr under their mgmt and the share price have been pump up to rm19 and fallen as low as rm6.02. The reason for the temp rebound to rm8.93 is well known as it is widely discuss in hengyuan's many forums.expect to plunge down once the operators cabut at their own timing.

Sorry you missed the boat on latitude, used to be a high flyer for few years before 2016, but its a cyclical stk and all furniture stks are now in the same boat down drift.

i am here to learn (esp. from others mistakes) and not to shoot down any stocks..

Posted by stklearner > 2018-04-11 07:01 | Report Abuse

it is IB analysts buy/sell calls that we need to be wary of , as it is meant for their clients/own advantage, not for small investors benefit.
Their rpts that covers relevant factors to consider, are often valuable info.

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2018-04-11 07:39 | Report Abuse

then you should take a look on maybank's cover report on it

Posted by DroidnPlay > 2018-04-11 08:42 | Report Abuse

Today received a flyer from Maybank KimEng, will be sharing on how to diversify profits, and Rcecap is one of the corporate they are going to quote.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-11 14:14 | Report Abuse

That disclosure is nothing special. Why? I'm lazy to explain.

I'm very unhappy that my cost price is going up when i have not had a chance to top up, and i have no intention of educating others and making my cost price go up even more.

I've already written enough on valuation of financial institutions and RCECAP that anyone can go do their own research.

With luck, i hope PH will win and crash the market for me for a few days to buy shares.

I will write my report on RCECAP only when the price is near 2.4 in which case, very low margin of safety (meaning i wont buy), and any increase need sentiment to go up.

Or when i enter top 30. Which is probably 3-4 years down the line. I'm perfectly fine with price staying here till then, as long as no change in fundamentals.



===========================================================================
stklearner Yes,, the concentration of loans given to the top 5 borrowers , which are related corporations /cooperatives , total rm845.528 m of total loans rm911.767m is a red flag.
market is always right,
10/04/2018 21:00

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-11 14:27 | Report Abuse

If you don't mind, i would rather you constantly criticize and talk down RCECAP.

Because, one, that's the only way you know if you're wrong. Everyone agree with you, compliment on your research, but turns out you holding rubbish, jialat!

However, the main reason is because i know my research well enough that i'd rather the price go down, because this lowers my purchase cost.

Fuck paper profit/gains. Its not like i'm using the money also. I want to own this company!

And i'm lazy, i don't want this company reach 2.4. If it reach near there, means i might need to sell and find new company to buy.

I finished 5 years worth of financial statements from every single company in the KLSE, all 9XX of them.

I can tell you, fantastic companies selling at cheap price used to have 2, now only 1. All other fantastic companies selling at near fair value or way above fair value.

I want to paktor more. Instead of everyday read reports. If this one price go up, i need to stop paktor and start reading more reports d, and maybe even start reading the 8XX companies for SGX.

Please ah god, don't let the price go up summore.


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Posted by stklearner > Apr 11, 2018 06:57 AM | Report Abuse
i am here to learn (esp. from others mistakes) and not to shoot down any stocks..