Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-22 17:03 | Report Abuse

Kyy has so little FLB shares loh...!!

Posted by Up_down > 2016-11-22 17:05 | Report Abuse

kyy lansi is his problem.... cause he got plenty of money to lansi...we ikan bilis cannot lansi with our money la...We need to survive mah...

Posted by steveooikp > Nov 22, 2016 05:01 PM | Report Abuse

kyy is a rich man....
we are only small fish....
he is the founder of ijm and gamuda....
you go and see those staff in ijm... damn proud and lan si.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-22 17:15 | Report Abuse

Yes KYY is rich....but he has not much influence on FLB mah....!!
Bcos his sales had been fully absorbed by the buyers loh.....!!

Today even key so much buy at Rm 1.54....did not get much stock loh...!!

FLB $$$$$$$ coming loh.....!!

Chinese new year angpow and Merry christmas on FLB coming loh...!!
$$$$$$$$$$$ gain loh....!!

Alot people will be missing out mah...!!

Posted by steveooikp > 2016-11-22 17:17 | Report Abuse

stockraider... sure boh?
you talk like tat, I also wan to buy some....
I just need some $$$ for my cny dinner.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-22 17:20 | Report Abuse

U want to buy lah.....!
But u must have confident & conviction b4 u buy mah....!!
Just do homework 1st loh.....raider got a very good sifu to guide raider, thats why raider no scare mah....!!

Raider very confident FLB $$$$$$$ coming loh....!!

Posted by gift > 2016-11-22 17:42 | Report Abuse

tksw, the way you talk is so childish. Good luck to you.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-22 17:43 | Report Abuse

Tksw talk childish meh ??
Ok mah....very savvy man loh...!!

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-11-22 18:48 | Report Abuse

later johotin wa gap up I swtich some here when It sell down slowly towards 1.30

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-22 19:07 | Report Abuse

Don switch wait for johotin-w to hit rm 1.00 first mah....!!
FLB target is about rm 2.00 by year end.....the upside is not so high compare johotin-w...!!

Long term it is a good company to invest....but only steady return loh..!!
Target of Rm 3.50 not unreasonable over 1 to 2 yr loh...!!

Posted by red_85 > 2016-11-22 19:37 | Report Abuse

just called fren who is a broker...many big fund sold flbhd today as well as some big player..retailer buy only...good luck if you are those retailer

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-22 19:55 | Report Abuse

osted by red_85 > Nov 22, 2016 07:37 PM | Report Abuse

just called fren who is a broker...many big fund sold flbhd today as well as some big player..retailer buy only...good luck if you are those retailer !!

A CLASSIC TALK COCK.....LOH....!!
THE SHAREHOLDING OF FLB WHERE GOT ANY FUND INVESTOR LEH ???

Posted by red_85 > 2016-11-22 20:01 | Report Abuse

alot of fund are not in top 30 list la..this question i questions my fren before, he said some just 100-200k share..those mutual fund always switch in and out in many small stocks..

Posted by Up_down > 2016-11-22 20:21 | Report Abuse

If I were so confident in Flbhd, I would have just keep quiet to let weak holders shaken out by big boys and collect tickets slowly at much cheaper price.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-22 20:25 | Report Abuse

But fund woh....u mean they have less stock than raider ah ??
Also FLB is a small company with about 102 million share only mah...!!

Posted by tksw > 2016-11-22 20:53 | Report Abuse

big fun, kakaka

Posted by tksw > 2016-11-22 20:54 | Report Abuse

gift sifu, I am a kid, sure childish ma.. you veli old liao ah?

Posted by tksw > 2016-11-22 20:58 | Report Abuse

talk about cash & cash equivalent, one can almost treat FLB receivables as cash equivalent. kakaka. go read their report if you dunno why I said that

Posted by cwkhor > 2016-11-22 21:08 | Report Abuse

tksw, what's happened to WTK? no eye see tmr

Posted by chamlo > 2016-11-23 03:56 | Report Abuse

Trump policy-pullout of TPP

Posted by yawcfd > 2016-11-23 07:52 | Report Abuse

(Up_down kyy lansi is his problem.... cause he got plenty of money to lansi...we ikan bilis cannot lansi with our money la...We need to survive mah... ) +1

Posted by Mikkel Low > 2016-11-23 09:15 | Report Abuse

sold all and run

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-23 10:41 | Report Abuse

sold off all fl at 1.54, cut all loss, free up capital, swap all to armanda

Posted by berry > 2016-11-23 12:30 | Report Abuse

According to KYY stock pick criteria, Focus Lumbar quartery reports have not been performing well compared to the similar quarters last year :

Nov 16 3rd quarterly report dropped 70%
Aug 16 2nd quarterly report dropped 42%
May 16 1st quarterly report dropped 0%

so, I guess he should have disposed..But not very sure.

Posted by chl1989 > 2016-11-23 13:08 | Report Abuse

i will keep this share for years. take div and wait for miracle to happen. :)

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-11-23 13:09 | Report Abuse

1.50--->1.30--->1.
this will happen when US hike interest and banned Vietnam, China imports

Posted by red_85 > 2016-11-23 13:21 | Report Abuse

Kyy sure start selling already. But he Diam Diam sell as he got too much, need time to slowly dispose at highest price..

Posted by tksw > 2016-11-23 13:46 | Report Abuse

scare die me lor, but wolun bullfeet said buy when fear

Posted by tksw > 2016-11-23 13:50 | Report Abuse

buy and keep 3 months, slow slow buy down

Posted by traderman > 2016-11-23 13:56 | Report Abuse

Tksw, warren buffet calculate the intrinsic value first and then only he buy during market crash and only the share price is below the intrinsic value that he calculated. Have you done this step?

Posted by tksw > 2016-11-23 13:58 | Report Abuse

traderman sifu, What is intrinsic value har?

Posted by chl1989 > 2016-11-23 17:03 | Report Abuse

the worst is over. Div is coming. Q4 will capture backlog from Q3. plus high usd. flbhd will shine in 2017. :)

Posted by steveooikp > 2016-11-23 17:24 | Report Abuse

don't know.
wat I can see that bursa full of nonsense.

see kssc... making money & QR improve, down 2 sen.

see Mmode.... still got cash on hand... but QR only lost 1 million... also down like shit.

see wtk ..... 1 QR lost money... still cash on hand a lot... also down 5 sen....

see osk... undervalued... after took over pjd and osk prop.... down also.

FL could be stay there for few days and down again... just like ajiya....

Posted by steveooikp > 2016-11-23 17:26 | Report Abuse

tksw... I will just keep those aldy bot... no more buying... bcos is damn... once is down.. it never come back even QR improve next quarter

Posted by sell > 2016-11-23 17:29 | Report Abuse

Next year even worse with Trump in office who said no TPP. RM 1 in pipeline(2017).

Posted by kk123 > 2016-11-23 18:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by chl1989 > 2016-11-23 19:49 | Report Abuse

wtf? tppa? tppa hasnt started lah. now they are quiting. so maintain status quo lah. what is the impact? really pandai talk cock :)

Posted by tksw > 2016-11-23 20:40 | Report Abuse

steveooikp sifu, that's why I said wanna buy, slow slow buy, bit by bit buy. dun sai-lang

Posted by tksw > 2016-11-23 20:43 | Report Abuse

dun buy, the penggoreng kenot sell, then we they push low low then suddenly kasi sapu gao gao oso can

Posted by 云高 > 2016-11-23 23:03 | Report Abuse

What the hell no eye see xyz.."..

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-24 12:01 | Report Abuse

flb price finally stabilise....after raider's sifu senior analyst bought alot loh...!!

Posted by GTMS > 2016-11-25 09:07 | Report Abuse

Koon ? u there ?

Posted by Ku2016 > 2016-11-25 15:07 | Report Abuse

run.....1.30 soon

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-26 17:04 | Report Abuse

Examining the earning power of Focus Lumber
Author: Ricky Yeo | Publish date: Tue, 22 Nov 2016, 09:06 PM

Earning power, or normalised earnings, refers to a company’s underlying strength to make money under various economic conditions. It is different from reported earnings which can be temporarily obscured by external factors. As Ben Graham wrote in Security Analysis over 80 years ago, if you look beyond the numbers, you will find the qualitative side of a business that tells you something more fundamental.THIS COMPANY HAS BEEN MAKING MONIES WITH EPS OF RM 0.13 TO RM 0.30 FOR THE LAST 6 YRS

Some fact checks first. Focus Lumber is a price taker. Plywood, or any type of woods, is a commodity business and the price is more or less dictated by market. They’re not in a luxury business so they don’t have a say on how much they can charge for selling plywoods. The only control they have is operation efficiency by keeping cost as low as possible. FOCUS LUMBER CAN SELL LOWER THICKNESS NOT PRODUCE BY MANY LESS COMPETITION THUS COMMAND BETTER PREMIUM PRICE LOH..!!

When you study a business, you want to find information that are as ‘clean’ as possible to start with. Net profit tend to be the number everyone has their eyes fixate on, thus the obsession with EPS but it is a very ‘noisy’ number. It is affected by forex, tax, non-operating profit/loss, one-off gain/loss, and all kinds of expenses just to name a few. The lower you go in the income statement the noisier it gets. So where’s the best way to start? Right at the top, revenue! Revenue is one of the key driver for valuation and it is considered ‘raw’ as it doesn’t get tainted easily. ALSO U LOOK AT THE CASHFLOW TOO...IF IT TELL THE SAME STORY...IT CONFIRM ITS PERFORMANCE. FLB HAD BEEN PAYING DIV OF RM 0.06 TO RM 0.15 for past 6 yrs mah...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-26 17:11 | Report Abuse

For FL, revenue is a function of volume x price. Just like if you sell milk tea, your revenue will be how many milk tea you sold x price of each cup. Very straight forward.

FL has a maximum production capacity of 13,500 (m3) a month or 162,000 (m3) a year. Watch it before you call this number old, which is from IPO prospectus. It is running at 46.21% capacity in 2010 when business started picking up following the GFC. Now we have the first number to the equation, capacity. Next we need price.

You can easily find the export price for plywood on Malaysian Timber Industry Board (MTIB) website.

U CAN FIND TURNOVER CAN GO UPTO RM 200M PER ANNUM LOH...!!

This is the plywood export price from Sabah on a yearly basis, which is different in price from Sarawak and Peninsula, and the highest of all if you wonder. There can be many factors for price increase from drop in supply to higher demand and every year there’s up and down but in general the 10 years trend is heading north. And FL normally has the power to pass on any log price increase to their customers within 2-3 months lead time.

By deducing capacity from reported revenue and price, we can see the qualitative side of the business.

As mentioned in the prospectus, FL capacity has been sitting at around half of its maximum capacity of 162,000, or 81,000. And over the past 7-8 years, capacity sits between 82-89,000. Year 2009 is a down year due to GFC and 2015 is an abnormal year affected by forex to a certain degree. Utilisation rate gives you an amount of 50-55% over time, of course it will change in the future, but you are talking about 5-10 years time.

So if the utilisation rate is 50-55% over time, capacity will sits at 82-89,000 (m3). Given the price of plywood of around RM1,800+, you have an earning power of $147.6 - $160 mil in revenue for the business. A range of number you expect FL can earn going forward unless they undertake some drastic strategy shift. AT THE MOMENT IT IS OPERATING ON A 75% CAPACITY LOH...!!

As for the profit margin. There’s no need to be precise here. Just have to be roughly right. FL average profit margin sits around 10-11% over the past few years before full tax rate was introduced few months ago. Factor in the full tax rate, 7-9% is about right. THE ABOVE IS BASED ON NET MARGIN BUT BASED ON GROSS MARGIN IT IS 20% TO 35%

7-9% NET margin gives you 10.3 - 14 mil in profit a year or an earning power of 10 cents to 13.6 cents per share on 103 mil outstanding.
At $1.55, FL has a market cap of $160 mil. Take out its cash of $84 mil, that’s left with 76 mil or 74 cents a share. FOR 2016 THE EPS IS LIKELY RM 0.15 LOH....!!

So at this price, you are paying 74 cents for a business that has an earning power of 10-13 cents. Or roughly 5-7x. Now you have to judge if this is the right price to pay for a business like FL. But if you’re the one that pays $3 for it, that’s close to 18x. Definitely hefty by any measure. BASED ON CURRENT PRICE U R TALKING OF PE 10X

When you study a business, look at things that don’t change, in this case the plywood price and capacity which are relatively ‘stable’. Of course there are always other kinds of business risk i.e. high concentration of US clients etc that can impair their earning power but as a general starting point, look behind the numbers and start from the top. Find something you can anchor on and start thinking about the business earning power. And think what can potentially affect the earning POWER. REMEMBER ANOTHER POSITIVE POINT...IT GOT NET RM 86 MILLION CASH OR RM 0.80 PER SHARE LOH...!!

Posted by yfchong > 2016-11-26 21:37 | Report Abuse

Last kung fu be patience

Posted by mani_cum > 2016-11-27 02:56 | Report Abuse

stockraider : Great in-depth explanation.

Posted by yfchong > 2016-11-27 16:42 | Report Abuse

Next Q, hope nothing goes wrong..., to improve on the FCF.
Still got time another 3 months

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-27 21:24 | Report Abuse

Yfhong, FLB should do well....Strong USD, making up of the delayed USA shipment of Sept 2016....will boost 4th qtr earnings loh...!!

Posted by yfchong > 2016-11-27 21:32 | Report Abuse

Stockraider... thks i just finish reading the q report... it would be good next q.....making my 0.5 cts assumption on the fcf. Still good... next q when all goes back to normal state... it will see a step in earnings.... Usd is just a plus points... i will get 1 or 2 pieces of lumber when price is adfordable...

Posted by tksw > 2016-11-28 12:46 | Report Abuse

not only that ler, company is in the process of acquiring new machinery to produce wider range of products. Assuming the existing products can maintain sales around the current level, new products will bring additional revenue. No mention of set up of new factory in the report, As a sifu previously pointed out that the company did not run on full capacity, we can safely assume that the management is prudent in spending the Capex for machinery. With the amount of cash in hand they have, dividend payment is not a problem.