Posted by tksw > 2016-12-17 16:54 | Report Abuse

milky cow

Posted by geary > 2016-12-18 03:17 | Report Abuse

Muoo...!!! Solid cash cow!!! Dividend investors must analyse d cash flow statement n d crucial one its free cash flow!!! With capex of less than 10%, plus good cash flow from operation d FCF per share is approximately 0.29. Most probably there will be another dividend in six month time. Be optimistic! Gd luck!

Posted by yfchong > 2016-12-18 05:26 | Report Abuse

Value of the conpany us based on expected cadh flow not share price sometimes. Also susah hati

Posted by geary > 2016-12-18 12:40 | Report Abuse

The 4 main criteria to judge a company that is having a MOAT are ROE n ROiC of double digits, profit margin above 10% n growing free cash flow. With a growth in FCF its intrinsic value also goes up. Don't be too accurate wz all this DDM, FCF, Graham no, most of d time use common sense investing. We need lots of working experiences plus academic knowledge, to form a model of how to invest. Be humble n keep on learning, cz business environment always change. Read more investing books n have your own methodology! Gd luck!

Posted by mike90 > 2016-12-18 22:02 | Report Abuse

Counter with pivotal moment currently, better loaded more b4 super investor promote....

Posted by geary > 2016-12-19 02:11 | Report Abuse

Pivotal points! That was make famous by d late Jesse Livermore! Well if u really want to learn to be a pure Chartist, u can not only trade in d stock markets, u can trade in Forex markets, commodities or futures markets! The best investing method is still sitting on your Ass investing!!!

Posted by dompeilee > 2016-12-19 11:04 | Report Abuse

Bought some FLBhd for the first time @ 1.61. Avoided getting conned by the old geezer KYY :D

Posted by mani_cum > 2016-12-19 11:36 | Report Abuse

mani money come

Posted by geary > 2016-12-19 11:37 | Report Abuse

Many individuals in d stock markets know d price of everything but d value of nothing. Using higher algebra to calculate d precise value is not important, but a simple primary math n lower algebra is enough. There is no such thing as precise method, use a simple method that everyone understand. D margin of safety is still not obsolete n never will, n d dangerous one this time is different! Use owner earnings to divide whatever ratios. Owner earnings is closed to FCF/share. EY, DY, PE, Debt to Equity, Debt to NCAV. Price to Book Value, Price to NCAV, earnings growth n earnings decline n current ratio. Gd luck!

Posted by voon1900 > 2016-12-19 11:40 | Report Abuse

geary apa kamu cakap..adui

Posted by hng33 > 2016-12-19 11:41 | Report Abuse

steady heading to RM 1.70, hopefully before-ex-dividend date

Posted by dompeilee > 2016-12-19 12:23 | Report Abuse

murali & others...where are you now? So eager to buy @ 1.90 till 2.20...now cheap goods, u orang disappear?

Posted by voon1900 > 2016-12-19 12:48 | Report Abuse

yalo...dom..their hands alr burnt in ash...cnt type...wakaka

Posted by geary > 2016-12-20 00:27 | Report Abuse

Wz little liabilities n zero debt this company won't go bankrupt. Wz present free cash flow per share of around 0.24, minus d little liabilities, times d growth of 8% or PE of 8, u get a projected market value of around 1.90 per share. Invest wz patience n hope, gd luck!

Posted by newbie_Investor > 2016-12-20 09:07 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 20): Hong Leong IB Research said Focus Lumber Bhd was poised to retest the RM1.73- RM1.96 levels in anticipation of a strong 4Q16 results and potential 4Q16 dividend surprise.

In a trading idea note today, the research house said despite a weak core PATAMI in 3Q16 (mainly due to timing gap in shipment to US), it remains optimistic of a better 4Q16 results for Focus Lumber, underpinned by several positive factors including: (i) Weakening RM/US$; (ii) Bright US RV industry outlook; (iii) Ongoing efforts to improve quality and operational efficiencies and (iv) Stabilising average selling prices.

“Moreover, there is a potential final dividend poser amid stronger 4Q16 and solid balance sheet with net cash of 85 sen.

“The positive downtrend line breakout yesterday should spur share prices to retest RM1.73-1.95 zones. Key supports are RM1.50-1.56. Cut loss at RM1.48,” it said.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/focus-lumber-poised-retest-rm173-rm196-says-hlib-research

Posted by hng33 > 2016-12-20 11:13 | Report Abuse

:DDD)

Posted by hng33 > 2016-12-20 11:41 | Report Abuse

Entitle Interim dividend 6 sen now + potential final dividend another 6sen ? hahahaha

Posted by newbie_Investor > 2016-12-20 12:48 | Report Abuse

Any amount would be fine but I am expecting it to be 4 cents.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-12-20 15:37 | Report Abuse

Gogogooooooo

Posted by Simple man > 2016-12-20 16:36 | Report Abuse

will this stock go back to 3.0? how long time it need?

Posted by hng33 > 2016-12-20 16:39 | Report Abuse

Simple man

Too ambitious for TP RM 3.00 loh, of course, if EPS growth tremendously laer, still possible also

HL bank give target region 1.73-1.96

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-20 17:55 | Report Abuse

FLBHD - To retest RM1.73-1.96 in anticipation of strong 4Q16 results and potential final dividend surprise
Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Tue, 20 Dec 2016, 09:45 AM

A downstream plywood manufacturer. FLBHD (founded in 1980s) focuses on the manufacturing and sale of plywood and veneer, using the waste from its manufacturing activities to generate and sell electricity. FLBHD exports over 98% of its products, mainly to US (71% of FY15 revenue), Korea (12.4%), Taiwan (11.5%) and India (2.1%).

Promising US Recreational Vehicle (RV) industry outlook.Approximately 70% of FLBhd’s FY15 revenue was derived from the US market, of which bulk of its plywood is catered to the RV industry. The US RV market is expected to grow positively on the back of recovering US economy, which bodes well for FLBHD’s plywood. According to the latest forecast from RVIA, the RV industry’s shipments will top 438,000 units in 2017, a 4.4% increase above the projected 2016 total of 419,500 units, the 8 th consecutive year of growth for the RV market.

Riding on strong US$. As over 98% of its exports is denominated in US$ while about 80-90% of cost of sales is settled in RM, strengthening US$ bodes well for the bottomline (average RM/US$ has depreciated by 5.8% from RM3.90 in 2015 to RM4.13 YTD), given heightened prospects of Fed rate hike and sustainable US growth on the back of “Trumponomics”.

Ongoing efforts to improve quality and operational efficiencies . In respond to the increasingly competitive market, FLBHD is currently in the midst of finalising a deal to acquire new machinery producing plywood with different sizes and specification, with the aim to increase the sales volume to US market with the production of these sizes of plywood as well as to reduce reliance on labour force.

Expecting a strong showing in 4Q16 . Despite a weak core PATAMI in 3Q16 (mainly due to timing gap in shipment to US), we remain optimistic of a better 4Q16 results, underpinned by several positive factors including: (i) Weakening RM/US$ (slid 6.1% in 4Q16 to RM4.13 against average RM4.05 in 3Q16); (ii) Bright US RV industry outlook; (iii) Ongoing efforts to improve quality and operational efficiencies and (iv) Stabilizing ASPs. Hence, we expect FLBHD to record ~RM60m revenue in 4Q16, translating into a core PATAMI of RM6.6m, assuming a 11% net profit margin (slightly lower than average 11.9% in the last 4 quarters). All in all, FY16 revenue is expected to increase 9% yoy but core PATAMI will decline 19% yoy, predominantly due to reduction in sales volume, lower ASPs, higher overheads coupled with higher effective tax rates.

Potential final dividend poser amid stronger 4Q16 and solid balance sheet with net cash of 85 sen (~52% of share price). Historically (excluding the outlier in FY15), the company registered operating netcash flow of 8-27sen/share and has been paying 6-8sen dividend consistently (15 sen in FY15) since listed in 2011. Last week, FLBHD declared a total dividend 6 sen for 9MFY16 on 15 Dec (ex-date 29 Dec).

In anticipation of stronger 4Q16 results and its solid financial position, the company is capable of delivering another ~4sen final dividend, translating into a total 10sen for FY16 (i.e. 6.1% DY) or a dividend payout of 51% (still below 53%-65% range from FY11-15). Overall, we see limited downside risks for FLBHD, supported by the strong netcash/share of 85sen and interim 6 sen dividend. At RM1.62, FLBHD is trading at 1.06x P/B, 40% lower against its peers. In terms of P/E, FLBHD’s 8.3x FY16 P/E (Ex-cash, P/E is only 3.9x!) is trading at 26% discount to its peers’ 11.3x.

Positive downtrend line breakout to spur share prices to retest RM1.73-1.95 zones. In view of the sluggish 3Q16 results, FLBHD’s share prices tumbled on 22 Nov from RM1.69 to a low of RM1.49 intraday before closing at RM1.55. Thereafter, the stock steadily climbed to RM1.62 on 19 Dec after announcing 6 sen interim dividend on 15 Dec.

Ahead of the dividend ex-date and in anticipation of a strong 4Q16 results (to be released in Feb), FLBHD’s share price is poised to retest immediate resistance of RM1.73 (14 & 21 Nov high) following a downtrend line breakout yesterday. A decisive breakout above RM1.73 could take the next leg up towards RM1.84 (200-d SMA) before reaching our LT objective at RM1.96 (50% FR) levels. On the flip side, key supports are RM1.56 (20-d SMA) and RM1.50 psychological support. Cut loss at RM1.48.

Posted by newbie_Investor > 2016-12-20 18:01 | Report Abuse

https://valueinvestingbursa.wordpress.com/2016/12/20/focus-lumber-berhad-analysis/

any comments are welcome

Posted by stockraider > 2016-12-20 18:15 | Report Abuse

Focus Lumber Berhad Analysis

Manufacture & sales of plywood and veneer.
Exports mainly to USA (71%).
Similar industry competitor – Ta Ann, WTK.

Compound annual growth rate, CAGR for the past 5 years (2011-2015).
Revenue : 10.29%
Net profit : 23.30%
EBIT : 21.76%

Average free cash flow, FCF for the past 5 years : RM17.02m. Average capital expenditure, CAPEX for the past 5 years : RM2.53m.
Growth sustained by internal cash flow generation (No debts).
Growth plans (50-55% utilisation rate)
In the midst of acquiring new machinery to produce plywood with different sizes and specification.

Current dividend yield is 3.68% based on the current price of RM1.63 (20/12/16).
Potential final dividend 4QFY16 to bring yield up to an estimated 6.13%.
Cash per share : RM0.85 [Other investments (RM61.30m) and cash (RM26.37m) – 3QFY16].
Value of RM1.43 [EPS (projected): 15.92 cents] based on a PER of 9x, which is a 20% discount from peers’ PER of 11.3x.
Sum-of-Parts (SOP) methodology yields a fair value of RM2.28. Discounted cash flow analysis using the average FCF of 5 years with 3% growth and 10% discount yields RM2.42.

Margin of safety : RM0.65.
Valuation metrics using projected earnings for 4QFY2016.
Cash Yield : 10.7%
Earning Yield : 26.5%
EV/EBIT : 3.77
Return on Capital : 30.9%

Sources:
Research report by Hong Leong Investment Bank dated 20 December 2016 here.
Research report by Hong Leong Investment Bank dated 9 September 2015 here.

RECENTLY MAJOR SELLDOWN FLB DUE TO POOR 3RD QUARTER RESULTS.THE REASON FOR THE POOR RESULT IS DUE THE SHIP FOR EXPORT TO AMERICA DUE TO DELAY IN SHIPPING LOH....!!

FLB 9 MTHS EPS IS AROUND RM 0.105, BUT IT IS EXPECTED EPS FOR THE YEAR AROUND RM 0.17.

DIV EXPECTED TO BE RM 0.10 COMPRISES OF RM 0.06 INTERIM AND RM O.O4 SPECIAL AND FINAL LOH...!!

Posted by chl1989 > 2016-12-20 18:25 | Report Abuse

wow. insider numbers. good to know :)

Posted by keke > 2016-12-20 22:06 | Report Abuse

flbhd looks very leng-zai liao.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-12-21 10:52 | Report Abuse

wow. buy buy buhy

Posted by Diamond7 > 2016-12-21 11:24 | Report Abuse

Cash rich, undervalue counter with potential.......Export based .
Will continue to go up if Malaysian ringgit continues to be downstrend.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-12-23 11:38 | Report Abuse

buy little more today

Posted by SkyMoney > 2016-12-23 12:33 | Report Abuse

follow most sifu buy some too ==> hope tis time won't go holland

Posted by investabc > 2016-12-23 14:13 | Report Abuse

This is picking up durian hard to go wrong

Posted by Diamond7 > 2016-12-23 16:43 | Report Abuse

I follow sifu Papaerplane.......he hardly goes wrong!

Posted by chl1989 > 2016-12-23 18:21 | Report Abuse

the worst is over. time for flbhd to shine in fy2017 :)

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-12-23 23:28 | Report Abuse

Time to position now

Posted by starperformer > 2016-12-27 09:38 | Report Abuse

After realizing the fundamental, people will start to be awaken and chase it.

Posted by vinvestor > 2016-12-27 09:46 | Report Abuse

Still cheap la

Posted by dompeilee > 2016-12-27 11:14 | Report Abuse

dompeilee Bought some FLBhd for the first time @ 1.61. Avoided getting conned by the old geezer KYY :D
19/12/2016 11:04

Go baby goooo!!!

Posted by geary > 2016-12-27 11:17 | Report Abuse

People who are Chartists n using d pivotal points should look closely now. Those pivotal points are in d uptrend. For traders don't ever follow your opinion, always follow 'Mr. Market ' opinion. Opinions are always wrong, d market opinions are always right. Be fully optimistic when uptrend, be fully fearful when downtrend. Cut loss if you're wrong, sell if u earn 50%, don't be greedy, cash is always d King!!! Gd luck!

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-12-28 00:33 | Report Abuse

What pivotal, all rubbish

Posted by geary > 2016-12-28 01:49 | Report Abuse

Read 'Find a Trend with the Partial Retrace' from d greatest trader Livermore in his original book 'How to Trade in Stocks' 1940. Gd luck!

Posted by geary > 2016-12-28 02:03 | Report Abuse

Sometimes in life is always fated. If u bought some really wonderful companies during d 2008 n 2009 subprime crisis, with full conviction by now most of them will be quite successful. Opportunities only come one or three times in our life. Always standby your watchlist of companies n Free Cash Flow!!! Gd bye!

Posted by mike90 > 2016-12-28 23:26 | Report Abuse

Going to break RM1.7 this week.

Posted by tksw > 2016-12-29 09:44 | Report Abuse

sei-for lor, FLB drop 6 sen...

Posted by Kesley Tan > 2016-12-29 09:47 | Report Abuse

@tksw

those are adjustment from dividend payout 0.06 that is ex today.
No drop in fact.

Posted by chl1989 > 2016-12-29 10:44 | Report Abuse

LOL at tksw :)

Posted by yfchong > 2017-01-03 14:41 | Report Abuse

Flb stock pick.......a lot of attention.....

Posted by Diamond7 > 2017-01-03 14:47 | Report Abuse

All eyes here.......export counter....cash rich!!!
Next quarterly report will be excellent!!!

Posted by Kesley Tan > 2017-01-03 14:58 | Report Abuse

no debt. give dividend. USD strong = good result

Posted by Kesley Tan > 2017-01-03 14:58 | Report Abuse

special dividend coming on Feb

Posted by yfchong > 2017-01-03 15:15 | Report Abuse

Ha ha see first lah