Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-05-27 00:16 | Report Abuse

Problem is, why never see you buy when any of these "big" investors buy? And now come here to knock your empty tongs to show your far sighted ability to say: SEE, I TOLD YOU ALREADY

Or may be should say this: SEE, NO WONDER THEY KEEP SELLING LAH, ARE YOU BLIND NOT TO SEE THAT?

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-05-27 00:18 | Report Abuse

I will accept whoever say I was blind enough for not seeing it IF you tell me you wiill foolow they buy & sell, simple as that

Posted by newbie4444 > 2017-05-27 04:43 | Report Abuse

I am newbie. But moneysifu not killing us with below comment? Why now only 2.78 not 3.2-4?

Stock: [OLDTOWN]: OLDTOWN BERHAD
May 23, 2017 04:46 PM | Report Abuse
The calculation is simple, 4 x 4 = 16 cents x 20 times = Rm3.20

If the company can continue its momentum in penetrating China Market, my guess is like this:
5 cents x 4 quarters = 20 cents x 20 times PE = RM4.00
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/moneywhere.jsp?fp=2

Posted by Goinvest88 > 2017-05-27 07:47 | Report Abuse

Share price up is stock god, share price down is conman. We should sharing more on business fundamental, prospect, useful info, etc for investment reference. Otherwise, our hard earn money will flow to big shark or conman. Unless your money is not hard earn, then donate some to us.

Posted by guess1978 > 2017-05-27 08:28 | Report Abuse

I bought this stock small back in CNY expecting the result to be fantastic after the Singles Day. I was right and the price surged from 1.9 to 2.6X. I top up big again in 2.6X range and the blogs of moneySIFU especially the "大马白咖啡出口首3月达5亿令吉，去年总出口12亿" convinced me that I should have made the right choice. I am disappointed with the result as it went against my expectation and I have sold all yesterday at 2.7X.

I sincerely thank moneySIFU for sharing all the FACTS. I learnt how we can study one counter including all the fact finding & peer comparison etc. I thought I should never go wrong with Oldtown who penetrating CHINA market and earning RMB...but this is stock market, business is challenging. 人生不如意之事十常八九。

For those keep on bashing moneySIFU, don't you have to responsible for your own investment? How much you pay moneysifu as commission when the price shoot from 2.6X to 3.40? Don't you have more than enough time to sell at 3.XX?

Posted by ginvin > 2017-05-27 08:42 | Report Abuse

well said guess1978... no one but us to take full responsibility on our own investment decision

Posted by FLINV > 2017-05-27 09:31 | Report Abuse

I agree with ginvin.

Posted by Henry Chan > 2017-05-27 09:44 | Report Abuse

moneysifu, didn't you sell some above 3.00 ?

Posted by Tai KT > 2017-05-27 09:57 | Report Abuse

don't just look at the negative side of the report, look at the positive side as well. we need to digest the result.
Growing in big china is huge, right?
Increase of trade material, why, prepared for next qr grow?
The rev drop from Malaysia and others countries are temporary? Why?
others operation expenses increases also, why?
many factors to consider, eventually the result is it justify?
I do not discuss the price, it is purely the market reaction results.

Posted by Tai KT > 2017-05-27 10:25 | Report Abuse

actually rev of manufacturing of beverage increase as well. only the cafe revenue reduce.

Posted by optimus9199 > 2017-05-27 11:35 | Report Abuse

Franklin Investments had been selling since early April, which means that they already had knowledge about the coming results be bad.

Posted by 888next > 2017-05-27 13:27 | Report Abuse

The co selling its 11 mil treasury shares is more telling that it knew results were not good and sold in advance

Posted by shernlee > 2017-05-27 13:32 | Report Abuse

i agreewith 888next

Posted by Tai KT > 2017-05-27 13:33 | Report Abuse

good chances to get cheaper price. don't judge based on one we only. I am will to pay 2.6 and below.

Posted by ehtan > 2017-05-27 19:07 | Report Abuse

still have potential to drop another 2 to 3 days. please refer to AAX. am aiming 1.50-2.00. why? first day drop RM 0.61(3.09-2.47), Monday will be 2.16(2.78-0.62), Tuesday will be 1.54(2.16-0.62). F

Posted by Tai KT > 2017-05-27 20:14 | Report Abuse

let see, Oldtown fundamental is different with aax

Posted by ehtan > 2017-05-27 22:14 | Report Abuse

ya, maybe you are right can't compare. Let do some calculation for the cafe chain. Total group has 234 cafe outlets. The PBT is 1.095mil for the 4th quarter 17. So simple calculation,1 cafe outlets only have the PBT around RM 1560 (RM1,095,000/234x3). Average 1 day profit only RM50. Luckily is their manufacturing of beverage still remain encouraging. Bare in mind that their competitors such as Aik Cheong. Power root, Papparich, nsetle are also entering china market and this will dilute their sales as well. Trade at your own risk and i might be owning this share.

Posted by ehtan > 2017-05-27 22:24 | Report Abuse

can someone check what happen with the RM500mil white coffee export in 1st quarter?? if you estimate oldtown have 30% of 500mil because ppls always take oldtown is the leader in white coffee market, the revenue will be RM 150mil just for the manufacturing of beverage and the profit shall be RM37.5mil (taking profit margin of 25% for RM 150mil). But how come not tally? 50mil or 500mil???

Posted by bjgdila123 > 2017-05-27 22:36 | Report Abuse

hangussssssssssss

Posted by Tai KT > 2017-05-27 22:55 | Report Abuse

http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/s/198220

Posted by ehtan > 2017-05-27 23:13 | Report Abuse

all the investment bank always forecast high price, supermax forecast 3.80 before, ifca forecast 2.20 before, even AAX 2.00 before and what happen this stock now. so for oldtown just let us see their business doing next quarter.

Posted by ehtan > 2017-05-27 23:15 | Report Abuse

don't depend too much on investment bank, u may refer to supermax, ifca, AAX and etc

Posted by limch > 2017-05-27 23:19 | Report Abuse

Agree. If OldTown undervalue co should buy back not sell treasury shares.

Posted by 888next > May 27, 2017 01:27 PM | Report Abuse
The co selling its 11 mil treasury shares is more telling that it knew results were not good and sold in advance

Posted by ehtan > 2017-05-27 23:21 | Report Abuse

investment bank and management won't shown us how good the performance for cafe outlet. for me, RM 1600 per outlet is very less. worst than general workers salary. maybe above is my advise. let us monitor how their business next quarter. if still around 10-15mil, then can decide what to do. if more than 20mil, then can collect.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-05-28 00:25 | Report Abuse

Thank you for understanding, guess1978, ginvin & FLINV, but the true fact is up is god & down is conman. I accepted it.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-05-28 00:41 | Report Abuse

I have been thinking long time about sharing in i3, I made good amount of money that I would never imagine since after joining i3 community, I have been lucky enough to made winning strikes over Gadang, Mycron, Ekovest & Cab, one after another in the span of 1.5 years.

I feel committed to return back for what I gain from the sharing of many good people here, including icon8888, otb, kcchong, calvin tan, paperplane, wealthwizard & many others.

But I have been observing the treatments received by them all the time & how big guns like coldeye & KYY position themselves in stock market & community.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-05-28 00:52 | Report Abuse

For whatever reasons, all of these good people have been attacked continuously. Sometimes I will think is it worth to face all these kinds of condemnation?

OTB & kcchong are conducting their businesses, so these are part of the business. Though sometimes it is very difficult to accept unreasonable comments from others, because all the attackers are hiding behind IDs without identities.

For icon8888, paperplane & calvin tan, they are true man with strong mentality. They still what they are since I joined here, truly admire them.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-05-28 00:55 | Report Abuse

I have been thinking also will coldeye not making money in stock market if he do not participate actively in i3? No, coldeye will continue to make money without asking anyone to buy any share because he knows the winning formulas.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-05-28 01:00 | Report Abuse

I have been thinking myself what if I don't comment or active in the forum, can I still make money? The answer is yes.

I bought AWC 0.94 & sold all 1.04
I bought masteel 0.945 & sold all 1.08
I bought frontken 0.26 & sold all 0.285

Posted by 0000 > 2017-05-28 01:10 | Report Abuse

please ignore those people with negative minded. we always need people like you here.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-05-28 01:11 | Report Abuse

VS, Aeoncr, Ann Joo, prestar & Engtex which under my watchlist are doing good even though I didn't buy any of them.

It means sun continues to raise & earth continues to spin no matter what!

It means stock price will go up no matter what as long as business delivered results!

Posted by Apollo Ang > 2017-05-28 01:14 | Report Abuse

If I didn't comment,rather sad to see people loses,i hope majority people make and the loser is the govt.why? cos govt must give people money to spend not swindle them

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-05-28 01:17 | Report Abuse

Do I make loss in OldTown? Not really, my entry cost is 2.70, so I only lose my opportunity cost for my money invested in this OldTown. Time will tell.

So, that's it, I call it a day & wish all good luck. I will still come but won't do any further. Bye!

Posted by ks5S > 2017-05-28 08:49 | Report Abuse

moneySIFU... no need to be so humble.
You will be right one day. This counter will move to 4.00 once announce bonus issue / share split.
Coming soon.

Posted by Tai KT > 2017-05-28 09:01 | Report Abuse

people only see the bad side when price drop, if price did not drop how can I buy cheap?

Posted by KingOfStock > 2017-05-28 12:08 | Report Abuse

@tai kt, agreed with you.

Posted by 1811 > 2017-05-28 12:20 | Report Abuse

"The PBT of RM1.10 million was 82% lower than the PBT of RM6.03 million in the preceding quarter mainly due to the provision of RM4.50 million on overdue trade receivable accounts in the quarter ended 31 March 2017"

Hi, need some guidances. What is the main component of the trade receivable account? Thought cafe chain transaction is on cash basis? Franchises Fees or loyalty fee?

Posted by Tai KT > 2017-05-28 12:38 | Report Abuse

I don't side anyone, I make my judgement and decision. Actually when I saw the second article from moneysifu and what makes you think you are better.., I know this is a good chance to buy some when price drop. The grow of big China already huge even can off set the decline of others area. Imagine , one Shanghai city which population already similar amount to whole Malaysia. The potential of continuing growth is like hell. As I said, cafe was just a marketing and branding purposes. Extra cost for trade and expenses, could be the preparation for next QR. If the decline is temporary and recover in next QR, I can expect, people will start to jump on the boat. I did not buy when the price above rm3, I still thinking not worth to chase high without any solid performance results. I don't know how the price will react further, but I may buy it drop to my targeted entry price.
Buy or sell are at your own risk.

Posted by Tai KT > 2017-05-28 13:18 | Report Abuse

FYI

净利跌引拋售　旧街场前景仍看好


（吉隆坡26日讯）旧街场（OLDTOWN，5201，主板贸服股）交出了净利按年下跌四成六的末季业绩，令许多投行大跌眼镜，儘管如此，分析员以该公司快速消费產品（FMCG）及出口市场的成长潜力，继续看好该公司的前景。

不过，旧街场週五早盘面对恐慌拋售，股价一度严重插水。该股先以2.64令吉低开，在投资者大力拋售下，急速滑落至全天最低的2.47令吉，重挫20.06%或62仙。

惟，该股隨后稍微收復失地，在买卖双方的拉锯战中，股价在2.70令吉至2.80令吉之间波动，最终以2.78令吉掛收，全天滑落10.03%或31仙，排在下跌榜第2名。该股全天共有2172万股易手，是第18大热门股。


旧街场2017財政年末季（截至3月31日止）净利按年减少46.03%，至991万令吉；但营业额按年微升2.34%，至1亿零696万令吉。

全年而言，该公司净利和营业额按年增加16.26%及8.08%，至6077万令吉和4亿2520万令吉。

大马投行分析员认为，旧街场末季净利下跌，归咎于该公司认列一笔450万令吉的坏账拨备，以及承担较高的员工成本及开销。

「若排除上述不利因素，该公司末季业绩依然可圈可点。旧街场末季FMCG销售取得10%的健康成长，而出口至中国总额也大幅飆涨71%，抵消了本地销售下跌的影响。此外，其他国家的销售甚至取得超过1倍的增幅。」

同店销售增长正面

虽然旧街场的饮食业务因关闭了国內4%的分店而下滑，但庆幸的是，该公司仍交出正面的同店销售增长（SSSG）。

另外，该公司的资本开销较去年上涨一倍，显示该公司將继续自动化业务。

肯纳格投行分析员则指出，该公司2017財政年全年核心净利为6080万令吉（按年升16%），符合预期，但旧街场宣佈派发每股1仙的终期股息及3仙特別股息，令他感到意外，因为將全年派息推高至每股10仙，高于他预测的每股6仙。

「旧街场看似倾向將七成的净利用来派息，因此我们將该公司2018財政年的每股股息预测上调至11仙。」

出口业务看好

同时，该分析员预测2018至2019財政年净利，分別为7150万令吉和7600万令吉。

展望未来，丰隆投行分析员预测，隨著亚洲市场（尤其是东盟、中国及台湾）的人口总数和中產阶级不断攀升，旧街场的出口业务將继续成长，而该公司也將在近期，于越南、柬埔寨、香港及澳门获得分销执照或签订合作协议。

在旧街场召开匯报会之前，肯纳格投行给予该股「与大市同步」投资评级，目標价从2.64令吉，上调至2.95令吉。

大马投行员重申该股「买进」评级，合理价维持在3令吉，而丰隆投行则建议「守住」，目標价是2.62令吉

Posted by johnsloth > 2017-05-28 18:41 | Report Abuse

keep tracking oldtown on tmall and jd. thank you moneySIFU for this method.

Posted by neotang > 2017-05-29 09:53 | Report Abuse

Risks
Rising raw material prices.
Occurrence of Ringgit strengthening would impact exports.

Rating
(HOLD ↔; TP 2.75)

Oldtown’s FMCG exports are accelerating at a rapid pace which will provide significant revenue contributions for the group going forward. Additionally, the opening of new café outlets domestically should take advantage of the recovering consumer sentiment. Despite this, we reckon growth prospects are already priced in at current levels.

Posted by neotang > 2017-05-29 11:05 | Report Abuse

this analyst from alliance trust able or not? oldtown is shariah compliant or not also put wrongly. typical office-chair analyst. rushing to deliver homework.

Posted by Insider_News > 2017-05-29 12:28 | Report Abuse

The whole market are dropping like hell, focus on stocks lah, why must attack people? Losers only blame here & there, because they will never go wrong.

Posted by alex3388 > 2017-05-29 14:37 | Report Abuse

See chart showing UPSTREAM! So now see you Buy Up or Buy Down....

Posted by Gaybird Lim > 2017-05-29 15:04 | Report Abuse

upstream? you mean uptrend izit?

Posted by Tai KT > 2017-05-29 15:52 | Report Abuse

4.7m doubtful debt write off from .and extra cost 6m for trade of merchandise compare to flip qr.

Posted by AnimalFarm > 2017-05-29 19:11 | Report Abuse

future growth will come from Greater China region & Asean countries, time will tell.

Posted by paktua73 > 2017-05-30 12:16 | Report Abuse

old man bet at 1.68 he he want play play a bit here he he

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2017-05-30 12:28 | Report Abuse

Majorgity of the directors n sub shareholders bought cheaply at 1.50, so the present price still v comfortable to them.

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-05-30 15:45 | Report Abuse

Ohhhh noooooooo! Sifu has gone for good! When kopi rises above rm3 he will cum out again la!