Previous cycle has gave me a wonderful lesson.Mentally you must believe it will reach 60 sen but sell when it breaches 55. Armada operator will not let it break 60 sen.. Potential upside, reversal of Aussie Claire Impairments...
@iwantmymoneyback I see .. but I bought at 0.19 ... 10/04/2020 10:15 AM
Your option to average down..
Price fluctuations is part of the playing fields. All you have to do is to react to it.
Capitalising on this volatility, I collected alot of Barakah shares dirt cheap at 1 sen when many were selling, yesterday I sold at 2 sen. Make Handsome profits and retain some holdings as I want to be part of their turnaround story just like what Armada faced last year.
Silent Mary Barakah which is my weakest PN17 Battleship has now turned into a positive and profitable venture.
Now I just have to wait for the Regulation Plan promised by the CEO. Barakah has registered positive QR recently.. Once they announce the Regulation Plan, it will rocket like my Royal Fortune Icon..
Like always, it's your call. You decide what's best for you.
This is something we have not seen before. Nobody knows the market direction. But I believed and hope the market will normalised after the covid 19 is contained. Trade will be slow and demand pl may be lethargic { it will take time to recover} nonetheless wishing everybody a good Friday and keep our fingers crossed for better things to turn the market around
of all the O&G stks, Armada moved up the least, past 3 weeks, now could be profit take correction time, other O&G stks may give better short-term returns.
most O&G stks ratio of highest price/lowest price, for past 3 wks rebound exceed 2.1, armada only reach 1.77.
The Secret Weapon Giving Mexico Power in the Oil Price War
(April 12, 2020, 1:37 AM GMT+8 Updated on April 12, 2020, 5:22 AM GMT+8)
As Mexico and Saudi Arabia fight over a deal to bring the oil-price war to an end, Mexico has a powerful defense: a massive Wall Street hedge shielding it from low prices.
With talks well into their third day, the Mexican sovereign oil hedge, which insures the Latin American country against low prices and is considered a state secret, is a factor that may make the country less inclined to accept the OPEC+ agreement.
For the last two decades, Mexico has bought so-called Asian style put options from a small group of investment banks and oil companies, in what’s considered Wall Street’s largest -- and most closely guarded -- annual oil deal.
The options give Mexico the right to sell its oil at a predetermined price. They are the equivalent of an insurance policy: the country banks all gains from higher prices but enjoys the security of a minimum floor. So if oil prices remain weak or plunge even further, Mexico will still book higher prices.
The hedge isn’t the only reason Mexico is holding out. But it strengthens the country’s hand and makes it less desperate for a deal than countries whose budgets have been ravaged by the collapse in oil prices since the start of the year -- first because of the coronavirus and then because of the price war launched by Saudi Arabia.
The main reason driving President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a left-wing populist, to resist the deal is his pledge to revive oil production via state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos. Slashing 400,000 barrels a day to comply with the OPEC+ deal, rather than the 100,000 barrels a day that Mexico has counter-offered to Saudi Arabia, would put on hold his ambitious plan to return Pemex to its former glory.
The hedge has shielded Mexico in every downturn over the last 20 years: it made $5.1 billion when prices crashed in 2009 during the global financial crisis, and it received $6.4 billion in 2015 and another $2.7 billion in 2016 after Saudi Arabia waged another price war. The operation comes at a cost. In recent years, Mexico has spent about $1 billion annually buying the options.
“The insurance policy isn’t cheap,” Mexican Finance Minister Arturo Herrera told broadcaster Televisa on March 10. “But it’s insurance for times like now. Our fiscal budget isn’t going to be hit.”
Pemex, the state-owned company, has its own separate, smaller oil hedge. This year, Pemex hedged 234,000 barrels a day at an average of $49 a barrel.
State Secret
Mexico has disclosed very few details about its insurance for 2020 after it declared the sovereign hedge a state secret. However, based on limited public information, alongside historical data about previous years, it’s possible to make a rough estimate of the potential payout if prices remain low.
The government told lawmakers it has guaranteed revenues to support the assumptions for oil prices made in the country’s budget -- of $49 a barrel for the Mexican oil export basket, equivalent to about $60-$65 a barrel for Brent crude.
It locks in that revenue via two elements: the hedge, and the country’s oil stabilization fund. The fund historically has only provided $2-$5 a barrel, so it’s realistic to assume that Mexico hedged at $45 a barrel at least for its crude. In the past, Mexico has hedged around 250 million barrels, equal to nearly all its net oil exports in an operation that runs from Dec. 1 to Nov. 30.
Using all those elements, a rough calculation suggests that if the Mexican oil export basket were to remain at current levels, the country would receive a multi-billion dollar payout. Since December, the Mexican oil basket has averaged $42 a barrel.
If current low prices for Mexican oil continue until the end of November, the average would drop to just above $20 a barrel, and the hedge would pay out close to $6 billion, according to Bloomberg News calculations.
Representatives of the Finance Ministry and Energy Ministry declined to comment.
Mexican president's nationalist oil vision fuels standoff with Saudis
(Business News April 12, 2020 / 6:18 AM / Updated 4 hours ago)
MEXICO CITY/DUBAI (Reuters) - The biggest supply cut ever contemplated by the world’s top oil producers is hanging in the balance as a refusal by Mexico’s leftist leader to imperil his plans to rebuild state oil company Pemex has angered the Saudi prince who helped craft the deal.
For the past three days, Mexico has kept the oil industry on tenterhooks by resisting Saudi pressure to sign up to global cuts worth nearly a quarter of output for participating countries, aimed at reviving prices from their lowest level in decades.
Prices have collapsed as the new coronavirus outbreak has shuttered economies around the world and destroyed demand for fuel.
The refusal by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to compromise his plan to revive Pemex by agreeing to steep cuts has shone the global spotlight on Mexico as he prioritizes his domestic agenda over the collective interests of the world’s largest oil producers.
Determined to shore up the money-losing and heavily indebted Petroleos Mexicanos, as Pemex is officially known, Lopez Obrador offered only a cut of 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), rather than the 400,000 bpd the group of global producers sought.
In a compromise hammered out with U.S. President Donald Trump, Lopez Obrador said on Friday the United States had offered to cut an additional 250,000 bpd on Mexico’s behalf, bringing them close to the target.
However, Saudi Arabia - the heavyweight of global oil diplomacy - has balked at that and dug in its heels, despite some other producers from the group of OPEC nations and their allies - known as OPEC+ - calling for the cuts to go ahead regardless.
Lopez Obrador, a staunch advocate of non-intervention in other countries’ affairs, defended his stance on Friday, harking back to a time Mexico was “strong” and “self-sufficient” in oil.
“There were stories in the papers trying to blame us, that there wasn’t a deal because of us,” the 66-year-old president told reporters, adding that Mexico could not afford the 23% production cut asked of it, but had offered 5.5%.
“Mexico is doing its bit.”
Lopez Obrador’s insistence on the importance of rescuing Pemex was crucial in the arguments he used to persuade Trump to help out, a senior Mexican official told Reuters.
Meanwhile, his representative at the OPEC+ talks, Energy Minister Rocio Nahle, upset some other countries, notably the host Saudi Arabia, whose negotiator Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman argued that making exceptions could encourage others to dodge output commitments, according to several delegates.
“If OPEC+ accepted this and everybody who doesn’t like the numbers can just withdraw or leave, then we are in for a really bad time,” said one OPEC source.
The source said Nahle, who only last month signed up to smaller planned cuts, was intransigent over the proposed reductions.
For producers, the cuts are bitter but necessary medicine for low prices. Iraq is relying on oil revenue to rebuild after years of brutal internal conflict, and yet committed to reductions of 1 million bpd.
MEXICAN WALK OUT
Some delegates accused Nahle of hanging up on the other ministers during the video conference, but she pushed back against that on Friday, saying in a Mexican radio interview she had been “respectful of the other countries” and that each government had to consider its own capacity.
“We all lose in this situation: The producing countries lose and even the consumers do too,” she said.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
iskandar100k
178 posts
Posted by iskandar100k > 2020-04-10 09:37 | Report Abuse
Buy now set TP 0.2 cut loss 0.165 price will rebound by end of the day