Posted by Mabel > 2020-12-06 11:52 | Report Abuse

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) is set to trade between 1,640 and 1,650 next week, bolstered by window-dressing activities which are expected to kick off then.

It's time for our Armada to breach 40 next week!

On Friday, Mabel P1 Serba Dinamik Battleship climbs +0.23 (13.86%) to close RM 1.89

Let see which one will cross RM 2.00 first, Fossil Fuel Serba or Dayang vs BioFuel FGV Plantation

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by pang72 > 2020-12-06 12:13 | Report Abuse

Armada Ship should be very exciting next week....

Posted by pang72 > 2020-12-06 12:13 | Report Abuse

Serbak elephant also can up..
Armada will fly liao

Posted by pang72 > 2020-12-06 12:14 | Report Abuse

I am closely monitor HLG target price of 65c..
This make me wet wet..

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2020-12-06 13:33 | Report Abuse

I think pull back might occur to clear the weak holders. Properly up 0.32/ 33 or even lower..

Posted by Vanbasten > 2020-12-06 14:33 | Report Abuse

Ya sell on strength buy on pullback

Posted by Vanbasten > 2020-12-06 14:33 | Report Abuse

TP is 40 sen inevitable. 60 sen year 2021 imevitablr

Posted by wehcant > 2020-12-06 14:37 | Report Abuse

All eyes on Brent crude prices this monday.

Posted by tkl88 > 2020-12-06 19:53 | Report Abuse

Brent will break above $50 next week and break above $60 by end of December 2020 !

Posted by Allbullbutglove > 2020-12-06 20:24 | Report Abuse

Whoa get a lot of what van basten posted over at dayang

Posted by Mikecyc > 2020-12-06 20:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2020-12-06 20:48 | Report Abuse

>> EIA forecasts monthly Brent spot prices will average $42/b during the fourth quarter of 2020 and will rise to an average of $47/b in 2021 .

####

2017 brent oil price is averagely USD 54.71 ,2018 brent oil price is averagely USD 65.23 , 2019 is USD 56.99 ( year high USD 66.24 )

Posted by thesteward > 2020-12-06 23:17 | Report Abuse

Nice

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2020-12-06 23:21 | Report Abuse

Armada not on oil.Similarly is on other services.Oil increase usually not related.

Posted by GambleKing > 2020-12-07 02:40 | Report Abuse

Oil price is a highly sensitive indicator relative to economy activities. Share prices of oil and energy companies are highly correlated with oil prices. Anticipating global economic recovery by mass vaccination boosted global oil demand. The rally in oil prices boosts bullish mood in oil and energy sectors. The oil still has room to run and armada share price is likely jumping higher.

Posted by tkl88 > 2020-12-07 09:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-12-07 09:27 | Report Abuse

Jojobaa's analysis as follows posted on 15 October 2020 on this forum:

Armada's days of impairments are over, the 300 mil on the OMS is the last one.

With Armada D1 being extended, the next expiry of charter from firmed period is only coming in 2024. Debts are being paid down from its EBITDA of RM1 billion. Debts only increased because USD had appreciated to USD4.40 as at 1st quarter and USD4.28 as at 2nd quarter. RM1.5 billion has been paid, translating to debt paring down of RM250 million a quarter. Enquest, its customer for Kraken has breakeven field of USD10-15 bucks, so they are still above water, and unless oil price plunge below USD10 for prolonged period of time, chances of them terminating is close to zero.

OMS is loss making, but still EBITDA positive. I read somewhere that Armada Constructor and Installer has assumed no jobs till 2022, so any further impairments before then is slim.

Armada will probably make around RM300-400 million a year here onwards. Management is doing the right thing, paring down debt aggressively and maintaining operational consistency.

I am leaning towards AmInvestment and Hong Leong's target price of RM0.50-RM0.60. Over next few quarters, once it makes 2 consecutive quarters of RM80-100 million profit, Koon Yew Yin's followers will buy as it is trading at 5x and meets his golden rule. Debt is not a problem as they are generating substantial EBITDA. Interest rate reduction of 2% also saves Armada RM50 million in interest cost a year.

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-12-07 09:27 | Report Abuse

CEO said FPSO is immune to oil price. Why? Because before they commit to a project they screen through the profile of clients and primarily the breakeven cost of oil prices. At USD40, most of its clients are still generating positive EBITDA and profit, with breakeven at USD15 and 27 respectively for Enquest, so no oil price will not pose a serious risk to its FPSO business under current conditions. An oil field is drilled after forecasting for 10 or more years and therefore its clients will continue to drill as long as it is generating positive cash flow. Termination of oil field will leave operators cripple as they cannot produce oil clients has to be severely financially distressed to take this step.

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-12-07 09:27 | Report Abuse

Some people are spooked with Maybank IB's valuation. First we have to understand that Maybank has written off approximately RM10 billion of its extension orderbook. This is a very drastic assumption. The recent extension of Armada TGT1 and Armada D1 has shown that not only will clients extend, they are even extending for longer durations (in the case of Armada D1) as oil field may still be producing robustly. Imagine if you just write off RM10 billion off a company's books. I don't see him doing the same on Yinson's orderbook.

Furthermore, Maybank has put a value of zero on the values of its OMS division. This is also not a fair assumption as its OMS division is still EBITDA positive. If an asset is EBITDA positive, it is still generating cash for its owner. The losses relates to the losses relative to the investment made on the assets but Armada has also been selling its OMS assets at gains (meaning sales price exceed book value).

Maybank has essentially valued Armada as if it is not cash flow positive, in financial distress and is at risk to declare bankrupty. I can assure you if you look at the cash flow statement, Armada has kitchen sunk most if not all its legacy investments and is a healthy company generating enough cash flow to pay off its debts and generate earnings for its shareholders.

Posted by Markv572421 > 2020-12-07 09:29 | Report Abuse

Brent Oil currently is $49.13 , expected to reach $50 this week.

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-12-07 09:49 | Report Abuse

Jojobaa Jojobaa's latest analysis:

3Q Results:

Positives:
1) Second quarterly profit if RM85 million despite Kraken maintenance downtime for a week (about RM15 million loss of revenue and therefore profit as Armada have to incur expenses during downtime)
2) Another 230 million of debt pared down, bring 9M2020 debt paredown to a whooping RM750 million
3) Steady performance for the FPSO division with the exception of Kraken downtime, which was planned
4) There is an increase of RM13 million in asset held for sale, which means more idle OSV assets are earmarked for sale. This is a good sign as depreciation and operating costs in relation to cold stacking those OSVs can be reduced.

Negatives:
1) Armada issued a force majuere due to construction difficulty during the lockdown for its 30% JV in India. However, force majuere contracts are fairly common in agreements relating to extraordinary events such as natural disaster or in this case COVID that hinders Armada's ability to fulfill its contract obligations (such FPSO construction is fairly complex process). I do not expect a material impact as the force majuere clauses should protect Armada from penalties or claims from OGNC. The only things that moved from this is the timeline
2) No signs of the RM600 million short term loan to be repaid in this quarter. In this regard, I believe banks will allow Armada to stretch its repayment schedule as Armada is generating healthy cash flow and Armada has to pare down its project financing before channeling the funds to paying its unsecured lenders.

Having said that, I believe Q42020 would be a strong quarter premised upon
1) Kraken returning to 99.9% uptime after the planned maintenace
2) JV and associate returning to the black of roughly RM100 million per annum
3) Sale of the OSV asset under point 4) above; and

In my opinion, Armada will report a very strong Q4, most definitely above Q3 and very likely above Q2 results.

Posted by MM78 > 2020-12-07 10:03 | Report Abuse

Thank you Jojobaa for your very detailed analysis of Armada. I learnt much from your assuring view points of the chance of ipairment of OMV assets as its asset values is something I am tring to determine. I largely concur with you the positive cashflow and paring down of the outstanding loansAS real keys to Armada's improving fianacial tURN around. Its long term FPSO contractual orders also provide future earning visibility. Good to share , Jojobaa

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-12-07 10:03 | Report Abuse

extreme short selling and panic selling by newbies ie Rakuten 11,000 on friday damaged this share already

Posted by MM78 > 2020-12-07 10:09 | Report Abuse

@i3lurker ,The total outstanding Armada shares is 5.89 billions , how much can 11,000 shares panic selling can cause long term demage to its price ?
07/12/2020 10:09 AM

Posted by strattegist > 2020-12-07 10:18 | Report Abuse

Thank you Armada... one round done oredy..

Posted by strattegist > 2020-12-07 10:25 | Report Abuse

i3lurker

I m done oredy... no worries

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-12-07 10:33 | Report Abuse

Cheers

having said that I just made a very small gambling buy and posted it for sale again

wanna go up must go past me ki ki ki

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-12-07 10:38 | Report Abuse

6 kupang mari

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-12-07 10:39 | Report Abuse

new bungalow .. new audi .. new wife

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-12-07 10:39 | Report Abuse

apa lagi mau ???

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-12-07 10:40 | Report Abuse

Armada ... KNM ... Hibiscus ... Velesto



aku kaya !!!!

Posted by JoyOhi > 2020-12-07 10:52 | Report Abuse

I TP out oredy as I see another fortune tis week. the good news is few middle east countries complied OPEC decision however recent resurgence of covid cases in US halted the rally, need to wait till FDA authorized moderna/pfizer use in US and US stimulus package then I will rejoin again. In conclusion, safe to hold but if u can see other opportunity then go for it, im expecting logistic goin up soon due to massive ecommerce sales this week, thougts?? . *not stock market advisory, trade at your own risk*

Posted by JoyOhi > 2020-12-07 11:23 | Report Abuse

US news - FDA adviser says Pfizer vaccine authorization could be this week, 10 Dec will be their meeting.

Posted by Markv572421 > 2020-12-07 11:33 | Report Abuse

Now time to buy ....maybe another wave coming in ...

Posted by Vanbasten > 2020-12-07 11:52 | Report Abuse

Sold buy back few sen lower next

Posted by Markv572421 > 2020-12-07 12:18 | Report Abuse

Strong block at 038 ......wonder why

Posted by Colin01 > 2020-12-07 13:07 | Report Abuse

resistance 0.38 will break, just matter of time

Posted by Mabel > 2020-12-07 13:27 | Report Abuse

#pang72 Armada Ship should be very exciting next week....
06/12/2020 12:13 PM

#pang72 Serbak elephant also can up..
Armada will fly liao
06/12/2020 12:13 PM

#pang72 I am closely monitor HLG target price of 65c..
This make me wet wet..
06/12/2020 12:14 PM

Mabel is already wet...

Today Mabel Serba Missiles IR 4.0 were automatic launched from the battleship when she beached RM 2.01, RM 2.02 and RM 2.03..before Serba continue to climb toward RM 2.09 with fantastic volume. As per writing more than 45 million shares has already been traded.

More Missile will be launched..

Mabel Next Mid Target Price for Serba is RM 2.275.
Mabel Next Mid Target Price for Armada is 40

Mabel is convinced it will go once these resistance is broken

Brent will break above $50 this week and break above $60 by end of December 2020 !

Stay Invested..

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by strattegist > 2020-12-07 15:06 | Report Abuse

cool...

Posted by Markv572421 > 2020-12-07 15:30 | Report Abuse

like that i invest in the end of december laa better ....current invest no effect on the current price...

Posted by nikicheong > 2020-12-07 15:39 | Report Abuse

Jojobee, was Kraken downtime just a week? I estimate it may have been a bit longer, like 10 days. So the loss from the Kraken shutdown would’ve been around RM20mil. Small diff, but an upside nonetheless. If the shutdown was for 2 whole weeks, then loss was RM30mkl

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-12-07 16:05 | Report Abuse

Dear sir, my name is jojobaa, not jojobee.

It could have been a week, could have been ten days. In any case, the most important thing is that there is no planned maintenance for Kraken in the 4Q and therefore, I am optimistic with the JV returning to the back and with Kraken back to normal . In my opinion, if we assume 99.9% uptime on Kraken, and JV returning to the black with a RM25 million quarter profit, I predict that Armada will report a core net profit of RM120-RM125 million after accounting for seasonally weaker OSV utilization during the monsoon season. If Armada is trading at 37.5 cents at 85 mil net profit, I wonder what will Armada trade at when my prediction of RM120-125 million is nearly correct.

Posted by Markv572421 > 2020-12-07 16:23 | Report Abuse

As usual, share price coming back to normal 0.365 after many attempt. No difference at all.

Posted by Markv572421 > 2020-12-07 16:31 | Report Abuse

Too many contra players....sien

Posted by Alexloc04 > 2020-12-07 16:42 | Report Abuse

Why O&G counters going down ?
Any latest news ?

Posted by Markv572421 > 2020-12-07 16:43 | Report Abuse

Brent currently drop from 49 to 48

Posted by Mikecyc > 2020-12-07 16:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Markv572421 > 2020-12-07 16:46 | Report Abuse

!@#$K.....

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2020-12-07 17:07 | Report Abuse

Pull back to clear weak holders..as usual

Posted by Allbullbutglove > 2020-12-07 17:31 | Report Abuse

Vanbasten cabut oredi . Careful