Anyone using Ambank stock trading platform? Please keep a lookout from their research report. They usually are the first to release, on the evenings of the day results are announced.
Lets assume the current terminal/recurring net profit is around RM150mil/quarter, i.e. EPS of 2.54 sen.
Per year this is an EPS of around 10.16 sen.
Now, assume RM30mil/quarter is added from Armada Sterling V and Armada Mumbai FSRU over the next 2 years. This adds an EPS of around 0.51 sen / quarter and around 2.04 sen per annum. Total EPS per quarter is now 3.05 sen, and total EPS per year is now 12.20 sen.
Then, imagine that with the OSV business being slowly sold off (the last ones to be sold will be the vessels which are well-used and contribute positively), lets imagine that there is no longer a drag to profits. This will add another RM30mil/quarter. Additional EPS of 0.51 sen per quarter and 2.04 sen per annum. Total EPS per quarter is now 3.56 sen, total EPS per annum is now 14.24 sen.
This is not even taking into account that the OSV business may turn a profit once the loss-making vessels are sold off. Or that the SC vessels in the Caspian may get a contract in the coming months for work to begin in 2022. Or that the Company could land additional FPSO/FSRU projects (notably the Limbayong FPSO project with its partners). Also, the JVs may contribute more profit per quarter as the Armada D1's extension costs have already been expensed.
There are so many positives to look to. But just what we have at the moment, an EPS of 10.16 sen...this is a bargain. Bumi Armada will soon reach the heights of RM1++, the ride has only just begun. Enjoy it! :)
Yeah, the streaming was horrendous. This management team sounds trustworthy and competent. Doesn't look like hiding anything and not concerned about hard-selling to the investment community. Positive take-away is that they didn't try to paint a rosy forecast and were realistic with their numbers. Feeling is we can expect solid performance going forward. FPO will be the flavor going forward with OMS business de-emphasized. I will look forward to the next couple of qtrs.
Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2021 Bumi Armada Berhad Financial Year End: 31 Dec 2021 Quarter: 1 Qtr
Quarterly report for the financial period ended. : 31 Mar 2021
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION 31 Mar 2021 1) Revenue : 562,703,000 2) Profit/(loss) before tax. : 183,964,000 3) Profit/(loss) for the period : 159,599,000 4) Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent. : 162,794,000
Given the nature of the business, the share price will not be shooting up cryto style but will gradually climb. Its evident that if Armada can maintain a consistent qtrly earnings improvement, its financials will be compelling. Just look at the trailing 12 months earnings trend. Looks pretty impressive...Expect us to touch 1.00 this year..
don't forget Armada Claire have idle after contract being terminated.. Armada have impaired Armada Claire. Once Armada Claire being deploy or won litigation. NTA will increased once Armada reverse an impairment.
Reason why Maybank's valuation is low compared to other IB is they are using SOP method ie sum of parts. This essentially values the company based on the existing FPSO projects and what its worth if each of these are individually spun off. Possibly the most conservative method of share valuation.
Maybank already give t.p of 0.52 , so Why are you still waiting for? Like that by end of this month Armada definitely will break above 0.52 liao lah !
T.p by end of Jun 2021 => break above 0.80 T.p by end of Sep 2021 => break above RM1.20 T.p by end of Dec 2021 => break above RM1.80 T.p by end of Mar 2022 => break above RM2.50 T.p by end of Jun 2022 => break above RM3.50
I expect PB to give us an upgrade as they promise at the very end of comments: _ Bumi Armada (Outperform, TP: RM0.49): JV inks deal for FSRU project in Mumbai. Bumi Armada's 49%-owned JV company entered into a licence agreement with the Board of Trustees for the Port of Mumbai (MBPT) to set-up, operate and maintain a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) in Mumbai harbour for a period of 30 years. (Bursa Malaysia)
Comments: Under the License Agreement, both parties will have approx. 9 months to fulfil certain conditions comprising of financing, obtaining permits for construction works, and signing of the agreement between the FSRU owner, charterer and JV Company for providing the FSRU for the License Period. Upon the fulfilment, the License Agreement will become effective and the License Period shall commence. Construction works for FSRU is expected to take about another 1.5 – 2 years hence earnings will only contribute from late FY23 onwards. While this could be positive on BAB’s future earnings, we are curious on how BAB is going to finance this job due to its stretched balance sheet with 2.4x net gearing. Pending more development on this and its 1QFY21 results next week, we maintain our earnings forecast at this juncture.
Actually the IB are not fully independent. If you see Hong Leong AM has got very high holdings of Bumi Armada Bhd. Then Hong Leong IB is the MOST bullish analyst on the stock.
Same with Yinson Holdings Bhd, Kenanga Investors Bhd's funds historically have a high exposure to Yinson Holdings Bhd, while Kenanga IB is very bullish on Yinson stock.
IB and AM cannot be housed under the same group. Will lead to biases like these (intended or otherwise).
I never believe in IB given price..never reach one..if tomorrow up ,then I buy 20k cc..I bet it goes down like hibiscus..now COVID so serious..thk carefully before enter
We maintain BUY on Bumi Armada with a higher fair value of RM0.72/share (from an earlier RM0.59/share) with a holding company discount of 20% to the group’s revised sum-of-parts (SOP) of RM0.90/share, which also reflects a neutral ESG rating of 3 stars
It's interesting how the investment banks have increased their TPs, Brent crude oil price is sustained at >USD65, and yet the share price has not appreciated significantly.
Oh well...patience. One day, when it jumps, it will JUMP!
Bumi Armada (BAB MK) BUY(maintain) Price Target: RM0.55 Up/Downside: +22% Previous Target (Rating): RM0.52 (BUY) Another results beat 1Q21 core net profit exceeded our and consensus estimates by 8-10% Lower FPSO Olombendo operating costs helped cushion the drop in associate profits. Quarterly free cash flow came in 7% higher qoq, which is a positive Reiterate Buy with a higher SOTP target price of RM0.55 (from RM0.52)
If IB upgrade the TP u guys need to becareful. Most of the time price will drop.. I see the wti crude price already hit resistant n will have a small correction to 62.5 Is good to take profit nw Armada will bck to 0.42 Collect at lower price later. I have close all my position at 0.46 n 0.455
hope Armada smooth sailing recovery continue to run smooth...if steady result continue, price slowly climb will be good enough...every Q climb 0.05, after one year can reach 0.65 not bad already.
EVERYONE IS DREAMING THAT IT WILL GOES UP, but actually it is not….I could not see the reason it will up since so many Covid cases yet..i thk investors thk twice when want to invest..
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Micias84
76 posts
Posted by Micias84 > 2021-05-25 16:11 | Report Abuse
What price armada will close today?