Armada is in long term contract FPSO rental and operate business, though it’s customers would be happy with high oil price but oil price has no direct and fast effect on Armada’s profit. Its profit is very dependent on its existing FPSO performance up to marks, leading to strong cash flow to pay down its loans fast. Every million $ loan interest saved from is an extra million $ earned. Meanwhile its incoming new FPSO would give Armada another boost. 60 sen Armada’s share price is within sight given its eps is likely more than 10 sens soon. Armada’s 70-80 sens TP next FY can be realistic .
Yes Robert, you are right it can be futile to tell a typical share trader the rationale of long term investing in Armada , even a10 % profits are irresistible to them for not taking taking off the table. Armada valuations are indeed too low at current price and syndicates are lurking to kill the small fishes for bigger catch.
Most of the time the share price depending on public sentiment. It could be flying super high or trading at unreasonable low price. Too much logical thinking you may missed the opportunity.
BA can never be like Hibi. their source of income is stable but not able to increase further with high risk on charter contract...but still as long it's going uptrend, slow2 is okay
Once the big boys decide to push Armada there's no more chance to buy cheap. Like they say, Once "The Eagles Have Landed" all heaven will break loose, cheers.
The only hindrance for share price appreciation is the debt amount and the interest payment there off...once those issues are sorted out...then BA will go back to its glory days...RM 2.00...2.50.Since the company is actively paring down its debt...I think by next year this counter could hit at least RM 1.00 if the price of crude stays around RM60/barrel....nevertheless if the company could secure further contracts which is a very high possibility and the price of crude stays above RM60/barrel...it could reach that target by the 3rd quarter of current year.
Bumi Armada is in a relatively good position now. The debt levels are at a very manageable level. The net gearing has come down to some 1.7x times. Might reduce further to 1.5x by the Q4 2021 results. In the near future, there will be room to take on project debt for large scale projects.
A new contract for the Mumbai Port FSRU is due to be finalised this month. Later this year, expect one new FPSO award from Africa, and possibly new contract win in Russia for the subsea construction vessels.
All current ongoing projects are running smoothly, with significant upside in terms of the exercising of option periods for each of them.
Our case for Bumi Armada is that it is a play on the commodities sector, specifically oil. We think that this company is a good diversification tool — although a risky one — given its stock beta of 2.0. The recovery of oil price should see increasing amounts of activities within the oil and gas sector, and as such companies within the value chain such as Bumi Armada stand to benefit from it.
BUMI ARMADA We refer to our announcement dated 19 January 2022 with respect to the Proposed Disposal ("Original Announcement") and wish to further clarify the matters below. Unless the context otherwise requires, capitalised terms used below shall have the meanings given to them in the Original Announcement.
1. Basis of the Sale Consideration of USD44.5 million
The Sale Consideration was derived based on discounted future cash flows, taking into consideration cashflows from the previous contracted firm charter periods for the Ice Class Vessels which were to expire in 2026, as well as potential subsequent charter renewals by the charterer.
2. Justification for the Sale Consideration
The Group had assessed the risks of its Offshore Marine Services ("OMS") business and had decided to monetise such assets since financial year 2019. The Ice Class Vessels were part of the Group’s Offshore Support Vessel ("OSV") business, which in turn is one of the divisions within the OMS business segment.
The Group has, since 2019, disposed of 40 OSVs, including the Ice Class Vessels. The Group currently has 4 remaining OSVs.
The decision to sell the Ice Class Vessel Companies is consistent with the Group’s strategic plan to exit the OMS business segment.
The net assets of the Ice Class Companies take into consideration certain key estimates, one of which being the assumption that the Ice Class Vessels will continue to operate beyond the contracted firm charter period (even though this may not always be the case in reality), but does not reflect the discounted future cash flows of these companies.
The Group is of the view that the Sale Consideration fairly reflects the discounted future cash flows which the Group would have generated from the Ice Class Vessels disposed.
Although the Proposed Disposal may have been transacted at a loss, the Group is also of the view that it is justified on the basis that key resources, namely the capital raised from the sale, and management bandwidth, can be more productively deployed when focused exclusively on the Group’s core business.
Is it trying to imply that next quarter results will be lower?
Although the Proposed Disposal may have been transacted at a loss, the Group is also of the view that it is justified on the basis that key resources, namely the capital raised from the sale, and management bandwidth, can be more productively deployed when focused exclusively on the Group’s core business.
“Bumi Armada is of the view that the sale consideration fairly reflects the discounted future cash flows which the group would have generated from the ice class vessels that are disposed,” it said in an announcement to Bursa Malaysia.
KUALA LUMPUR: Bumi Armada Bhd’s proposed sale of its ice class vessel companies for US$44.5mil (RM186.25mil) had been derived based on discounted future cash flows.
The group said this took into consideration cashflows from previous contracted firm charter periods for the ice class vessels which were to expire in 2026, as well as potential subsequent charter renewals by the charterer.
Bumi Armada announced earlier last month that it is proposing to sell its subsidiaries which own three ice class ships for US$44.5mil cash to Russian oil and gas giant PJSC Lukoil.
“Bumi Armada is of the view that the sale consideration fairly reflects the discounted future cash flows which the group would have generated from the ice class vessels that are disposed,” it said in an announcement to Bursa Malaysia.
“Although the proposed disposal may have been transacted at a loss, the group is also of the view that it is justified on the basis that key resources, namely the capital raised from the sale, and management bandwidth, can be more productively deployed when focused exclusively on the group’s core business,” it added.
Bumi Armada said that it had assessed the risks of its offshore marine services (OMS) business and had decided to monetise such assets since the financial year 2019.
“The ice class vessels were part of the group’s offshore support vessel (OSV) business, which in turn is one of the divisions within the OMS business segment,” it said.
Bumi Armada said that it had disposed of 40 OSVs, including the ice class vessels since 2019. It noted that it currently has four remaining OSVs.
“The decision to sell the ice class vessel companies is consistent with the group’s strategic plan to exit the OMS business segment,” it said. The proposed deal, which is due to be completed by the first quarter of this year, is expected to result in a loss on disposal of RM25mil to Bumi Armada.
Bumi Armada’s subsidiaries Bumi Armada Singapore Holdings Pte Ltd, Bumi Armada Offshore Contractor Ltd and Bumi Armada Russia Holdings Ltd had in Jan entered into a sale and purchase agreement to sell these companies to AC Management Co Ltd and KN Holding Ltd which are both wholly-owned by PJSC Lukoil.
It also said that the net assets of the ice class companies takes into consideration among others, the assumption that the ice class vessels will continue to operate beyond the contracted firm charter period although this may not always be the case in reality.
I'm not sure why the second Bursa announcement is necessary. First announcement already made it clear the disposal was at.a loss. Maybe they're just adding some clarity, but personally I don't see anything new here. Makes sense the sale price was arrived at using DCF
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
strattegist
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Posted by strattegist > 2022-01-31 13:46 | Report Abuse
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