Egg at the tip of the horn ? I love this pearl of wisdom. I need to learn it.
But that was the case all the time, we just did not know about it. And nothing was done to fix it. Every day there is work going on to solve this problem now, while BA still gets paid. Not the worse case scenario.
Peter Lynch once wrote the ultimate success or failure of investment is not purely dependent on one's intelligence but the also the stomach to withstand the worries of the world long enough for the investment to succeed. The skittish investors no matter how intelligent always got flushed out the market by the brush beater of the doom. To me it is quite difficult to overcome the worries at times but very true and useful so far in Armada stock . I am not impressed by the ways Armada management handling the information flow to the investors on the latest Kraken hiccup so far. Either they willfully hold back the updates or they do not know how to handle it confidently. This is harmful to investors' confidence in Bumi Armada. Is this the agenda of the insider large shareholders for holding back updates so far and SEC should investigate ?
Everybody at Bumi Armada pretends to be surprised by the transformer failure. But those things do not happen without warning signs. I think that ... 1. Transformers were running hot so people kept door open, and some posters peeled off the wall due to being warped by heat 2. There was an annoying buzzing sound and clicking, much louder than in the other electrical rooms 3. You could sense the sour 'transformer' smell closer to the units. By the vents of the transformer enclosure, you could nearly taste it, not just smell. 4. During pump switching smoke was observed 5. One transformer failed but nothing was done about it. 'One off event,' they said. 6. Eventually an operator expressed his concern about critical equipment health. Unit started to give trouble and malfunction warning light. Manager asked him what he was planning to do about it. And he said meeting was for productive discussion, not for complaining. The guy learnt to keep quiet.
Then one day, May 20, another transformer failed. They new that Manager would not like it, so they tried with the third one without much investigating ...
What can IR explain? Everything already announced, there is no further progress better keep quiet then to tell they are still struggling, it is understood anyway.
Kraken was a failure since day 1, Bumi has to pay $80m for penalty due to late delivery. On location also unable to commission due to many components failures. After few years today more components are failing, this is the quality of Bumi Kraken FPSO project, very sad. Pls google and search all these stories.
Why you all study transformer chronology. Adoi!!. Biar betui you org ni...any benefit on that, things already happened you can't reverse back the clock. Look at what our next investment strategy.
Many funny ppl here as if they are the fortune teller, tonite rain or not he also dont know, now can tell you he can ensure drop below 40C, i refer this to Macgyver11, if tommorrow turn the other way, then he will go missing for next few trading day
Rest assured Enquest and Bumi both are fire fighting now like tbere is no tomorrow. You thinn both will take this easy and sleep well? The problem is too big to solve in shoet time, this is not changing a scree, but massive equipments, no news is bad news, until then we wait and hope, it can be 3 days, or 3 months, but this is already 3 weeks, it must be difficult one, means it could be many weeks or months away.
Armada is RM1.7b off its peak of RM0.73 achieved less than 2 months ago. Its long-time shareholders realised belatedly that a transformer issue can cost so much. Pain.
Why angry..you get stuck ha in high price..I been here messaging since 2019, where are you then...LOL this is funny.
luckyfrankie
Many funny ppl here as if they are the fortune teller, tonite rain or not he also dont know, now can tell you he can ensure drop below 40C, i refer this to Macgyver11, if tommorrow turn the other way, then he will go missing for next few trading day
Everything will be fixed just a matter of time and cost. It is material that is why BA made announcement. Until next announcement you can besure that ther are fire fighting 24x7, after 3 weeks no news means very very bad.
No news is = no progress, still fire fighting to figure out how to repair this giant massive equipment that takes 6-12 months to order, long lead time. Soon, EnQuest will announce material impact. Price to re-test support 0.40. Sit tight. Only 10% down from 0.44, not too far. Unless the repair is really going to take 6 months, then 0.35.
1. Transformers were running hot so people kept door open, and some posters peeled off the wall due to being warped by heat 2. There was an annoying buzzing sound and clicking, much louder than in the other electrical rooms 3. You could sense the sour 'transformer' smell closer to the units. By the vents of the transformer enclosure, you could nearly taste it, not just smell. 4. During pump switching smoke was observed 5. One transformer failed but nothing was done about it. 'One off event,' they said. 6. Eventually an operator expressed his concern about critical equipment health. Unit started to give trouble and malfunction warning light. Manager asked him what he was planning to do about it. And he said meeting was for productive discussion, not for complaining. The guy learnt to keep quiet. Based on the above , we need big tummies to contain the worries of Bumi Armada's lack of update of Kraken hiccup . Robert, can you please clarify where do you get the information of transformers situations ? Thanks
We hope BA leanred from Kraken Projecy since 2016, how not to avoid the same mistake, poor project management, cost them too much, this failure still haunting them yoday after 6 years, with more equipment failures unexpectedly, good that they slow down new FPSO project, to avoid same mistake, that is how Yinson took over most of new FPSO in last 4 years.
Winning project is easy, get the commercial competitive, but to deliver project successfully is completely different game. You need good people, do they have strong project delivery team like the China man company mindset? Until then we hope more news coming soon.
It is more assuring to stare at your own crystal balls even if someone can bang their hairy chests telling you potential Armada share price by next week. Kraken is not sinking yet but an FPSO with a transformer issue.
@MM78, My post is fully made up. It is what I THINK that happened. However, it is based on my observation of Oil and Gas industry and on a prevailing safety theory. For every one substantial (material) incident, there are 10+ minor ones that had been ignored. So in a way I am glad that the 'cat is out of the bag' and company now has to step up and fix problem. Good for us, long term.
______________________________________ But those things do not happen without warning signs. I think that ... 1. Transformers were running hot ....
umi Armada Berhad (“Bumi Armada” or the “Company”) wishes to announce that its jointly controlled entity, SP Armada Oil Exploration Private Limited (“SPAOEPL”) recently received notification from Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited ("ONGC") of India, about its intention to extend the charter hire of a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Vessel ("Armada Sterling II FPSO") for one year from the expiry of the present firm time-charter. The value of the contract extension is approximately US$43m.
Under the original contract signed between ONGC and SPAOEPL on 13 March 2013, Armada Sterling II FPSO was chartered by ONGC to operate in the ONGC Cluster-7 field located about 210km off the west coast of Mumbai, India under a nine-year firm time-charter, with seven annual extension options. The original nine-year firm time-charter will expire on 7 March 2024.
SPAOEPL is a 49% less 1 share: 51% plus 1 share joint venture between Bumi Armada and Shapoorji Pallonji Energy Private Limited (formerly known as Shapoorji Pallonji Oil and Gas Private Limited) of India. ONGC is India's state-owned oil company listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd (NSE).
Financial Effects
The contract extension is expected to contribute positively to the future earnings of Bumi Armada Group.
Risks Associated with the Contract
The risks associated with the contract extension are normal operational risks which can be mitigated through Bumi Armada's system of asset management and business controls.
Directors' and Major Shareholders' Interest
None of the Directors and/or major shareholders of the Company or persons connected with them have any interest, direct or indirect in the said contract extension.
This is a mildly positive development. Question remains why just one year, why not 7 years. Perhaps it is risk management from ONGC to protect itself from low oil prices.
Regardless, anything above the firm charter period is usually a bonus. But at $43mil per annum, the effective apportionment to Bumi Armada will be around $21mil (49% stake in the JV) but there will be no impact to topline as JV revenue is not consolidated at the Group level.
Extensions usually have a profit margin >30% as the vessel would be almost fully depreciated and the financing fully paid off, so conservatively this would contribute around 1/3 * $21mil = $7mil to Bumi Armada's bottomline for that one year extension period (roughly RM32mil at today's exchange rate).
Also, Bumi Armada will get a better rate for yearly extensions. There is usually a discount provided for a multi-year extension. The latter however is "safer" as it provides a longer-term earnings visibility.
"The contract is for a fixed period of nine years with an extension option of an additional seven years on yearly basis. The contract is valued at approximately USD 740 million with an additional USD 340 million for the optional extension period."
The $43mil for one year extension is slightly lower than the original extension option of $340mil for 7 years (i.e. $48mil per year). Might be due to the exchange rate fluctuations since 2013, as the contract award by ONGC s usually based on Indian Rupees.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Macgyver11
2,492 posts
Posted by Macgyver11 > 2023-06-15 11:25 | Report Abuse
Who ever hold below 0.30c and still dreaming for TP above 0.80c...just watch out. Now Armada is like "telur di hujung tanduk". Hahaha!