Posted by David Gunter > 2023-06-14 17:08 | Report Abuse

You don’t want to know how much I made from TG, Supermax, Harta, Care+ and Comfort

Johnchew5
Woh HLT 3 times Limit Up in a week during 2020 ???

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-06-14 17:09 | Report Abuse

HLT didn’t limit up

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-14 17:29 | Report Abuse

@Kakume

"1 day $450,000 loss income, 30 days = RM60,000,000 loss. or RM24M to the bottom line each month.
After this, the rate will go down due to SLA uptime criteria, that is why Bumi know this is going to be very material impact to the earning."

---------------------------

Please get your facts right. USD450,000 day rate charter is currently being paid to Bumi Armada. However, due to production deficit and performance issues (given that only 1 of 4 transformer is online at present), Bumi Armada will have to issue a credit for some of that revenue, for failing to meet the SLA. To be conservative, lets assume the credit is 50% of the day rate charter.

This means, at present, Bumi Armada is effectively earning a topline revenue of USD225,000 per day from Enquest.

Production needs to be above 95% to earn the full day rate charter. If performance is higher than 95% there is also a bonus paid out in Q4 of every year.

We can forget about the bonus for this year, it ain't happening.

Something that softens the blow a bit is that the maintenance scheduled for August 2023 has been brought forward. Since the maintenance was due to be conducted on a single train basis, now is the perfect time to do it since the FPSO is limited to single train operations for now. Of course, the maintenance might end up taking slightly longer since it is being done ahead of schedule, but no major issue since Bumi Armada will have more than sufficient time to get it done.

The FPSO was offline for 22 days = loss of revenue of ~RM45mil (and consequently loss of profits of the same amount).

Each day more the FPSO is offline, there will be a loss of revenue and profits of around RM1mil.

As to the cost to get the transformer fixed, lets pencil in another RM15mil conservatively (might end up being a lot lower as the transformer itself costs <RM1mil, but I'm factoring other related costs such as shipment, lifting etc).

If Bumi Armada takes 3 more months to fix this issue, there will be a total hit of:

RM45mil + 90 * RM1mil + RM15mil = RM150mil.

This is a conservative estimate, might be slightly lower than this. Given an expected core net profit of RM800m for FY2023, this will result in a revised core net profit of RM650mil. Still not too shabby. The loss of RM150mil will be ultimately worth just 2.5 sen per share.

You can play around with the numbers as you wish and come to your own conclusion.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-14 17:32 | Report Abuse

If Bumi Armada can fix the issue within the next 4 weeks, then of course the profit hit will be lower. And consequently, if they take longer (e.g. 6 months) to fix the problem, then the profit hit will be significantly higher.

If the final remaining transformer also fails, then of course that's another huge problem.

Since 3 transformers have failed for a relatively new vessel (<6 years operations), there might also be a possibility of structural defects that will make it unlikely for the option periods to be exercised, or to be tied back to the nearby Bressey and Bentley fields.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-14 17:33 | Report Abuse

I'm actually still surprised they have not announced that the FPSO has come back online to Bursa Malaysia. As far as I can tell, this is a material development. They can always issue another update when the FPSO is back to full health.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-14 17:42 | Report Abuse

Actually Bumi Armada has a track record of dragging their feet on material announcements. In 2017, when FPSO Olombendo achieved first oil, the share price started moving up before Bumi Armada's official announcement due to informational asymmetry. First oil was achieved on 8th Feb 2017 while the announcement was only made on 17th Feb 2017. Insiders already knew this and the price was pushed up over 10% before the official announcement came.

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=77852&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

All of you guys here are privy to what we might as well term as "insider information", although there is nothing illegal about it as the information was sought through legal channels.

That's why investing in Bumi Armada is rewarding if you have your eyes and ears fixed on the right places.

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-06-14 18:55 | Report Abuse

If 4 and 1 transformer out long ago like years ago.. how hit 95% availability in recent past quarters?

Based on 3 or 4?

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-06-14 18:58 | Report Abuse

Or 2?

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-14 19:28 | Report Abuse

I'm not expert in topside but based on the information from the EnQuest chat (could be layman like many of us) 2 transformer are enough bring the production up to 100%. 1 transformer able to produce 50%. The other 2 unit transformers are redundancy or spare units. Now the problem is 3 out of 4 already burnt out, only 1 still working.

Why the 2 spare units also gone ? Armada Kraken Maintenance department responsible for this.

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-06-14 19:49 | Report Abuse

OrlandoOilSemiconIoT

Or 2?

49 minutes ago


That is why... 1 appears as 50%

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-06-14 19:51 | Report Abuse

Indeed overdesigned overbuilt... the reason fo 1.5b impairment?

Original will never realise its full potential ....

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-06-14 19:58 | Report Abuse

Spare also kong....

Act of god or management failure?

Posted by TCH1186 > 2023-06-14 20:01 | Report Abuse

just collect sure up

Posted by TCH1186 > 2023-06-14 20:01 | Report Abuse

50c cabut

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-14 20:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-14 20:26 | Report Abuse

@Felix888, please get your facts right.

This is from Enquest IR:

"There is a mechanism under which Bumi compensate EnQuest through availability credits, with the basis being performance against daily targets for potential production. It’s not quite as simple as equating production level to lease day rate paid, but retains material incentivisation for Bumi to perform."

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-14 20:32 | Report Abuse

My estimation + Niki calculation earlier
RM45mil + 90 * RM1mil (3 months ) + RM15mil+ 30% ( 500k*4.4) * 30 days * 3 months = RM 209 mil

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-14 20:36 | Report Abuse

I could be wrong as we just layman reading Analyst report and we don't have access to the contract terms. Let's wait for Armada`s announcement.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-14 20:41 | Report Abuse

Felix you are double counting what I've already done man. And I'm being more Conservative assuming a 50% haircut as opposed to your 30% haircut

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-14 20:42 | Report Abuse

Niki I believe you also read this posted in EnQuest chat. Looks like a reply from EnQuest IR. Last sentence "
"that mechanism will be in play going forward." What does this mean?

RE: Kraken back online13 Jun 2023 11:06
The HSP was restarted on Sunday evening as planned, with oil production resuming on a phased basis yesterday. We will look to ramp up production in the coming weeks.

Bumi were on a zero day rate since 48 hours following the shut in but will be paid now that we are back online. There is an availability credit mechanism in place at Kraken whereby Bumi compensate us based on reduced/restricted production, so that mechanism will be in play going forward.

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-14 20:44 | Report Abuse

I continue yours Niki, first 3 months 50% haircut, remaining 3 months 30% haircut until end of this year.

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-14 20:50 | Report Abuse

Remember in year 2017 to year 2019 Armada could not get final acceptance from Enquest. Enquest just get 70% to 80% of bare boat rate. After 3 years in 2020 Enquest only started paying the full charted rate.

Posted by bingoman > 2023-06-14 22:15 | Report Abuse

45 sen, buy and collect

Posted by Moneymore > 2023-06-14 23:03 | Report Abuse

Heard not a good sign so far, transformer order takes time for delivery.

Posted by KimSua > 2023-06-15 08:20 | Report Abuse

shorts at ~590K yesterday. Very mild compared to 3-6 mil daily before, buying power has also reduce. Downside risk is still high if no clear positive news.

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-06-15 08:20 | Report Abuse

More BS in the morning like you know it all. The port congestion and long lead times have further been improved these days. No need heard, heard from where? Your foot or the fish that swam to the oil field? LOL Very credible

Moneymore

Heard not a good sign so far, transformer order takes time for delivery.

9 hours ago

Posted by Kakume > 2023-06-15 09:16 | Report Abuse

No news is bad news Run..

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-15 09:19 | Report Abuse

BA finance CEO cracking his head calculating financial impact. Lots of discussion with EnQuest also. Don't expect any announcement soon.

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-06-15 09:37 | Report Abuse

This is why I tell myself never to listen to snake oil sales people

Felix888

BA finance CEO cracking his head calculating financial impact. Lots of discussion with EnQuest also. Don't expect any announcement soon.

16 minutes ago

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2023-06-15 11:21 | Report Abuse

Expected price to down lower further. 2nd qtr most probably Armada can escape from low earning but believed 3rd qtr onward budgeted in the kraken shutdown. Hopefully won't go back to where it start earlier (below 0.30c). Just 2c.

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2023-06-15 11:25 | Report Abuse

Who ever hold below 0.30c and still dreaming for TP above 0.80c...just watch out. Now Armada is like "telur di hujung tanduk". Hahaha!

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-15 12:05 | Report Abuse

Egg at the tip of the horn ? I love this pearl of wisdom.
I need to learn it.

But that was the case all the time, we just did not know about it.
And nothing was done to fix it.
Every day there is work going on to solve this problem now, while BA still gets paid.
Not the worse case scenario.

Posted by MM78 > 2023-06-15 12:33 | Report Abuse

Peter Lynch once wrote the ultimate success or failure of investment is not purely dependent on one's intelligence but the also the stomach to withstand the worries of the world long enough for the investment to succeed. The skittish investors no matter how intelligent always got flushed out the market by the brush beater of the doom. To me it is quite difficult to overcome the worries at times but very true and useful so far in Armada stock . I am not impressed by the ways Armada management handling the information flow to the investors on the latest Kraken hiccup so far. Either they willfully hold back the updates or they do not know how to handle it confidently. This is harmful to investors' confidence in Bumi Armada. Is this the agenda of the insider large shareholders for holding back updates so far and SEC should investigate ?

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-15 12:57 | Report Abuse

Everybody at Bumi Armada pretends to be surprised by the transformer failure. But those things do not happen without warning signs. I think that ...
1. Transformers were running hot so people kept door open, and some posters peeled off the wall due to being warped by heat
2. There was an annoying buzzing sound and clicking, much louder than in the other electrical rooms
3. You could sense the sour 'transformer' smell closer to the units. By the vents of the transformer enclosure, you could nearly taste it, not just smell.
4. During pump switching smoke was observed
5. One transformer failed but nothing was done about it. 'One off event,' they said.
6. Eventually an operator expressed his concern about critical equipment health. Unit started to give trouble and malfunction warning light. Manager asked him what he was planning to do about it. And he said meeting was for productive discussion, not for complaining. The guy learnt to keep quiet.

Then one day, May 20, another transformer failed. They new that Manager would not like it, so they tried with the third one without much investigating ...

Posted by limitup4u > 2023-06-15 14:52 | Report Abuse

with 2 more hours to go. Will the trading volume close below 20mil?

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-06-15 14:58 | Report Abuse

Per IR Transformer is on the way!!

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-06-15 15:02 | Report Abuse

No less than Optimus Prime himself is on the way

Posted by BILLC > 2023-06-15 15:03 | Report Abuse

40 sen coming,,,

Posted by stainlyho37 > 2023-06-15 15:09 | Report Abuse

no further announcements and keep quiet ..very irresponsibility...!!!....

Posted by Kakume > 2023-06-15 15:45 | Report Abuse

What can IR explain? Everything already announced, there is no further progress better keep quiet then to tell they are still struggling, it is understood anyway.

Posted by Kakume > 2023-06-15 15:47 | Report Abuse

Kraken was a failure since day 1, Bumi has to pay $80m for penalty due to late delivery. On location also unable to commission due to many components failures. After few years today more components are failing, this is the quality of Bumi Kraken FPSO project, very sad. Pls google and search all these stories.

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-15 16:01 | Report Abuse

43.5. The supporters here are not supporting the price. Aiya

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-15 16:06 | Report Abuse

Load up while the price permits.

Posted by NewTrader92 > 2023-06-15 16:07 | Report Abuse

until a good prospect comes from the management, this train is not safe to ride. good luck traders

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2023-06-15 16:57 | Report Abuse

Why you all study transformer chronology. Adoi!!. Biar betui you org ni...any benefit on that, things already happened you can't reverse back the clock. Look at what our next investment strategy.

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2023-06-15 17:01 | Report Abuse

I can ensure you all the price will drop below 0.40c haha!... Management incentives plan kikik!
Buy later when down.

Posted by luckyfrankie > 2023-06-15 17:15 | Report Abuse

Many funny ppl here as if they are the fortune teller, tonite rain or not he also dont know, now can tell you he can ensure drop below 40C, i refer this to Macgyver11, if tommorrow turn the other way, then he will go missing for next few trading day

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-06-15 17:57 | Report Abuse

Lol

Posted by vespa > 2023-06-15 18:00 | Report Abuse

back up the truck!

Posted by $$ BUYSELL $$ > 2023-06-15 18:13 | Report Abuse

keep on pushing down...