Cordially invite i3lurker the most blunt and controversial i3commentator who often insults, wisecracks and trash talk other people stock to Sslee 6 months, 12 months, 18 months ROI contest just for the fun of it.
It is good news. As I already wrote here 4 days ago (and before that), several pumps on the topside module 40 could be used to charge the HSP. There are 3 water injections pumps with similar specs, that are available. Now I see it confirmed in writing in the article. So technically, problem has solution. No need to wait for delivery of the transformer without production. Temporary arrangement is possible to maintain income.
The goverment is of course a nuisance, but can be handled with some lawyers and engineers. There will be no impact of 1 billion myr as market expects. _____________________________________________________________________________- Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BERHAD
3 days ago | Report Abuse
I would like to remind everyone that HSP does NOT have a transformer because it is HYDRAULIC (not electric as ESP). HSP downhole pump is driven by a water turbine, also located downhole, coupled to it. There is a pump with a transfromer called HSP POWER PUMP that pumps water to this turbine. This pump is located on module M40 on the topside. That module has many injection pumps that can inject 225 kbpd. So there are probably many similar pumps with transformers that could be 'creatively' used to start up.
Unless one is in the company and in direct contact with the issue seems a lot of BSA with lead times. Do these BSA even know if it is a Siemens or ABB or any other brand of equipment ? Lol
Kudos Robert, you did correctly indicate in your writings that there are other pumps with transformers that can be used as a makeshift replacement / stand-in for the HSP transformers.
Are you an engineer? Have you worked on FPSOs? Any contacts within the industry that can reach someone in the Kraken crew?
Niki, I have been working in oil and gas for 20 years, in engineering and operations area. A lot of experience, including offshore on FPSO's.
I have no contact with anyone at Armada. I had job interview with them once (via skype, with 2 or 3 people), and they appeared professional, organized and technical. Not a mickey mouse institution for sure. I am confident they will deliver on the objective. The counter is so cheap in valuation, it is mindbogling to me. I must try to connect to someone with linkedin. Peace of mind to know what is happening.
The valuation can go lower if this issue goes unresolved for longer. Just grab more on the way down. When you think it has reached rock bottom, load much more. I have been buying from 0.515 to 0.45. So far, I have been wrong as my average cost is 0.485. Waiting for panic shareholders to throw down to 40-42sen. The good thing is I plan to average down all the way and happy to buy much more.
nikicheong Potential Bumi Armada Re-rating catalysts (updated 16 June 2023):
New wins:
1) Award of Cameia FPSO project in Angola from TotalEnergies - This is only an EPC contract and will only sustain earnings for 2-3 years. This is NOT a long-term charter contract 2) 1 Minor FPSO contract win (either a small/medium scale FPSO 100% owned) - Active bids in Tuna field (Indonesia), Palok field (Mexico), Salam-Patawali (Malaysia) 3) 1 Major FPSO contract win (large scale FPSO, likely with a JV partner) - Unlikely to be soon as there are no known large scale bids from Bumi Armada, but possibilities exist in West Africa / South America 4) Finalization of the Mumbai Port FSRU project 5) New contract win for the 2 SC vessels in the Caspian Sea and 1 JV-owned SC vessel in Indonesia. Potential for new wins for the Caspian Sea vessels as flurry of work in the region due to high oil price environment. All 3 vessels as at 31 Dec 2022 are laid up 6) New contract award relating to a floating carbon storage and injection vessel
Green energy: 1) "Green energy" initiatives for future FPSO/non-FPSO wins (e.g. zero flaring or fully electrified FPSO) 2) Decarbonisation for existing fleet of FPSO 3) Diversification into floating CCS and other "green" structures materialise
Business as usual: 1) First oil achievement and then full acceptance of Armada Sterling V FPSO by ONGC at the 98/2 field in India 2) To repair the issues with the Kraken FPSO's HSP transformers so the FPSO can return to full operational capacity (Kraken FPSO presently only running at 50% capacity)
Contract extensions: 1) Confirmation of contract extension for Armada TGT FPSO in Vietnam - Might only be announced in Q4 2024, but it's all but certain the contract will be extended as new wells are still being drilled in the aged TGT field
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Note: All the above comes from my own research. Let me know if I've missed out on anything. I maintain that the Q4 2022 results, while extremely solid, were wholly "unexciting". We need positive developments that would enhance the long-term wellbeing of the company, only this will ultimately push the share price to higher levels. 16/06/2023 2:18 PM
If you look back All the IB analyst reports under their coverage, you will find ease and piece of mind. Kraken's technical glitch is just some inevitable blips of any running production process will face irrespective of business
Bumi Armada (BAB) secured a one-year contract extension for Armada Sterling II Floating Production Storage Offloading (FPSO), worth USD43m via its 49.99%- owned JV company SP Armada Oil Exploration Pte Ltd. To recap, Armada Sterling II FPSO was originally signed on 13 March 2013 with a nine-year contract valued at USD740m with a seven-year extension option on yearly basis, with aggregate value of USD340m. The original nine-year time-charter will expire on 7 March 2024. The contract extension is expected given the excellent operational performance with 100% uptime and, the Cluster-7 field remaining an active production field. We make no changes to our earnings estimates on account of this, having assumed this as part of our replenishment assumption. On another note, although there is no further update on the FPSO Armada Kraken shut-in, we reckon the recent sell down of its share price is overdone. While financial impact may be seen short-term, it is nonetheless limited, as long-term prospects remain solid.
Since the announcement of the FPSO Armada Kraken shut-in, BAB has lost RM1.1bn in market capitalisation. This is approximately 2 years’ worth of revenue contribution estimates from the FPSO. Although further updates are still pending from the management, we believe its financial impact is contained. BAB has fully repaid Kraken’s project finance debt and is able to absorb the financial impact given its strong cash reserve of RM678m with net gearing ratio of 0.82x.
Sell down overdone. Maintain TP 0.70. Public Investment
Bumi Armada is 1 stock that is quite complicated for general investors to comprehend its nature of long investment cycles, long term contract and its inherent risks in its operational complexity. This latest hiccup after the nearly perfect track records of FPSO Kraken's uptime in the last 3 years still bring back some guessing worse than actual situations. Many investors are sitting on the edge the last 2 weeks or so.
Looks more like management is unable to determine what is wrong with Kraken breaking down, the reason why the price has yet to rebound. If the problem is resolved, the owner would be pushing the price up immediately if it is under valued.
It will trade side ways if no news in the coming weeks prepare for downside risks. I don't see the dust settling, to push to .>0.5 with current information will be reckless
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Moneymore
532 posts
Posted by Moneymore > 2023-06-16 22:48 | Report Abuse
Kraken FPSO update: UK safety regulator checking events that led to shutdown
All quiet from field operator EnQuest on the plans for restoring production
How to annouce if they can’t even figure out what went wrong, and there is no solutions yet to be possible.